Election '82

...The challenger caused a furor when she accused Barnes, a liberal with an outstanding record on Israel, of supporting the PLO by urging a less hostile approach towards Nicaragua's Sandinistas...

...It removes from office congressmen sympathetic to Jewish concerns...

...Millicent Fenwick (Rep.-NJ) is trying for a Senate seat...

...PACsVobiscum," his review of 1982 Senate races, was printed in moment in March 1982...

...Henry Waxman (Dem.-CA) is extremely well-regarded by his colleagues...

...In some states, Jewish suburbanites will find themselves in economically homogeneous, though somewhat more conservative, districts...

...Arlen Erdahl (Rep.-MN) is a moderate considered friendly towards Israel...

...Gejdenson is running very hard and another tight election for this active and respected legislator is expected...

...The economy is the wild card...

...Robert Daniel (Rep...

...Porter is favored over Democrat Eugenia Chapman...

...Burton gave up key parts of his district to his brother, John, who decided to retire, leaving Burton potentially vulnerable...

...Lechner has a very strong organization...

...Both are progressive on domestic issues and both command strong support from the Jewish community locally...

...The most influential and supportive Republican and Democrat—Ed Derwinski and Jonathan Bingham respectively—are leaving Congress...

...Lantos is favored and well-financed, but the race has grown tense as Royer's nasty, thinly veiled ads assert that he is "one of us...

...Findley faces a powerful challenge from State Senator Dick Durbin, a moderate Irish Catholic who contrasts strongly with Jewish, liberal, conscientious objector David Robinson, who ran against Findley in 1980...

...Charles Percy, have tried to make political hay out of the charge that Durbin is receiving money from "a single interest group from outside the state...

...He is considered likely to win reelection...

...Ranking Republican Bill Broomfield (MI) is considered safe for reelection...

...Findley's labor record is very poor...

...Both New York and Pennsylvania, for example, are now allocated fewer seats in the House...

...The loss of seats also forces friends of the Jewish community into competition with each other: Margaret Heckler against Barney Frank in Massachusetts, and Ben Gilman against Peter Peyser in New York...

...Marks is a liberal Republican state senator...

...Wheat took the nomination in an 11-way primary, and is an exceptionally attractive candidate who is slightly favored in the general election...

...Though it is obvious that Jews cast their votes on the basis of many issues, not just a candidate's stand on Israel, it is also true that the Israel issue is a primary focus of Jewish interest and the primary motive for political contributions out of state...

...Races discussed have been chosen on the basis of their local and national impact on Jewish concerns...

...Wolf, a conservative, has been very good on Israel-related issues...

...His opponent is Gerry Sikorski, an articulate and attractive candidate who is also known to be pro-Israel and is somewhat more liberal...

...Redistricting ended any problems for Bobbi Fiedler, the conservative Los Angeles Republican...

...A strong showing and extensive financing this year will provide Wirth with an opening burst for the 1984 campaign...

...The expected redistricting massacre did not occur, but McHugh still faces a fight from attorney David Crowley...

...These are the major factors in this year's elections for the House of Representatives, and they are having signal effect on Jewish voters and political fund raisers...

...Heckler is seeking Jewish support on the basis of her strong record on Israel...

...Charles Schumer (Dem.-NY) divided a large Jewish constituency with Steve Solarz and now appears safe...

...He is exceptionally well-informed and well-connected nationally to Jewish political activists, and is already running full-time for the presidency...

...Kemp is certain to become even more visible on both foreign and domestic issues in the next Congress...

...Lechner's race is receiving considerable attention from Jewish political activists nationally because the northern Virginia district is a swing vote and because Lechner is projected as a leader in Congress on Jewish issues if he wins...

...His name is being widely circulated as a likely challenger against arch-conservative Sen...

...Erdahl currently leads...

...Martin Frost (Dem.-TX) survived four bouts of redistricting and now faces former Democrat Lucy Patterson in the general election...

...Barnes is considered a likely challenger to Sen...

...Levitas does not face a serious challenge, but certainly deserves recognition for a difficult job well done...

...But they will also mark the beginning of a long-term challenge—and opportunity—to build new alliances and to educate legislators about Jewish concerns...

...One of the shrewdest and best-informed observers of American Jewish politics, Contributing editor Aaron Rosenbaum is president of the Washington-based consulting firm of Aaron Rosenbaum and Associates...

...Frank, one of the most liberal members of the House, lost most of his district after incurring the enmity of several Massachusetts Democratic leaders...

...Dan Glickman (Dem.-KS) is safe and reportedly has statewide ambitions...

...Jews are increasingly seeking and taking seats in precisely those areas of the Sunbelt that have undergone the greatest population growth: California, Texas and Florida...

...Birmingham has been stung by high unemployment, and Erdreich is given a chance of defeating Smith...

...As the first election after a census, this year's campaign reflects the population shifts that have redistributed voters—and thus power—since 1970...

...Ben Gilman (Rep.-NY) faces Peter Peyser (Dem.-NY) in a district consolidation race that will cost the Jewish community a friend...

...Fred Richmond...

...He is much more secure now than in past elections, and is favored over Richard Miliman...

...Long-term effects of the 1982 races will begin to materialize in 1984 and 1986, as House members returned to office this year move up in the House hierarchy or seek Senate seats now held by incumbents who are less than responsive to Jewish interests...

...In California's 27th District, Mel Levine is favored to take another newly created seat...

...AuCoin is a liberal and strong supporter of Israel...

...Gejdenson has been hampered by complaints that he is too liberal for his relatively rural district...

...Roth has been outspokenly critical of Israel, but is a clear favorite for reelection...

...Mark Hatfield, the powerful liberal Republican who is an outspoken critic of Israel...

...This is an off-year election, which means a lower turnout...

...Clarence Long (Dem.-MD), the Subcommittee Chairman, lost 80,000 Jews from his district when the delegation's lines were redrawn...

...The number is likely to rise after this fall...

...Jews, after all, have moved to the Sunbelt too...

...New Jersey's Matthew Rinaldo (Rep...

...Dennis Eckart (Dem.-OH) won a tough primary battle after being redis-tricted...

...Barney Frank (Dem.-MA) is in a classic liberal-conservative race against Margaret Heckler (Rep.-MA...

...Both were active on Israel's behalf...

...Races involving Jewish members and selected elections of special interest are also analyzed below...

...Yet the Illinois plan has also created the best opportunity in years to defeat Paul Findley, the PLO's champion in the House...

...Virginia's Fourth District may be a sleeper race...

...Sander Levin, the brother of Sen...

...Yet redistricting is something of a two-edged sword...

...A no-lose situation...

...Fascell's district has been shifted, with a concomitant loss of some Jewish neighborhoods...

...Richard Altman of AIPAC, summarized the problem of shifting House seats: "Where did that seat go...

...Bob Shamansky (Dem.-OH) was seriously hurt when his district was made much more conservative in re-districting...

...In other states, such as New York and Michigan, many Jews will now be represented by congressmen whose traditionally urban power bases have been extended to the suburbs in order to protect the clout of Black or Hispanic core neighborhoods...

...Frank, now on the offensive against difficult odds, has received extensive aid from both inside and outside the boundary lines...

...Redistricting has created the best opportunity ever to defeat Findley...

...Levitas quickly pointed out how Pete McCloskey (Rep.-CA) had been duped by Yassir Arafat, and consistently worked to put Israel's actions in their proper context...

...Elliot Levitas (Dem.-GA) did yeoman's work in trying to keep a hostile delegation examining the Lebanon war honest...

...The district now has a 53 percent Democratic majority with the fifth highest-ranking union membership district in the nation...

...A considerable amount of Yates' time is devoted to his work as Chairman of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior, but Yates is widely respected and possessed of considerable influence on foreign policy issues when he chooses to use it...

...This is one of the most crucial races of Jewish concern this year...

...Reagan, opposes foreign aid and voted for the AWACS...

...Carl Levin (Dem.-MI), has taken the nomination after a bruising primary and is favored over the Republican nominee (who is also Jewish), Jerry Rosen...

...Tim Wirth (Dem.-CO) is a nationally-known new breed liberal who is expected to be returned to Congress...

...In Missouri, Alan Wheat has won the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Rep...

...With 125,000 new constituents, he faces the primary challenge of his career from Lynn Adelman...

...Bland might benefit from Seattle's high unemployment rate...

...States in the north and northeast, traditional bases of Jewish political power, have lost population to the south and southwest...

...The deft adaptation of American Jews to changing population patterns, regulations and electoral districts is likely to be well-marked in 1982, testimony to their evolving political sophistication...

...If the trend continues—and no one is saying it won't—ten years from now we're going to see even graver impact on the northeast and midwest, even larger increases in the Sunbelt...

...In Florida and California, additional districts near Miami and Los Angeles respectively are likely to mean the election to Congress of strong advocates of Jewish interests...

...Interestingly, Jewish politicians are becoming more and more visible in the Deep South and the Mountain States of the West as well...

...Similarly, the states that have picked up new seats are traditionally less receptive to the liberal domestic programs and foreign aid favored by the majority of Jews...

...Bill Green (Rep.-NY) was sufficiently strong to discourage election attempts by Jonathan Bingham and Bella Abzug...

...conservative Robert Dornan (Rep.-CA) tried and lost...

...Cutler is a national vice-chairman of the Democratic Party and stands to benefit from redistricting...

...Sam Gejdenson (Dem.-CT), the first child of Holocaust survivors to serve in Congress, faces a close race from Tony Guglielmo, whom Gejdenson narrowly defeated two years ago...

...Zablocki, though fair-minded and generally liberal, has been consistently critical of Israel throughout his tenure as Committee Chairman...

...Ben Erdreich, who is Jewish, faces Albert Lee Smith, a conservative Republican who as a born-again Christian has been friendly towards Israel...

...Toby Roth (Rep.-WI) faces a Jewish opponent, Ruth Clusen...

...Durbin remains in close contention in a race in which campaign contributions as channeled into advertising and voter location efforts will probably determine the results...

...He is a shoo-in for reelection...

...Other Committee members, such as Democrats Dan Mica (FL), Ben Rosenthal (NY) and Steve Solarz (NY) and Republicans Olympia Snowe (ME) and Larry Winn (KS) are considered safe...

...Porter is as visible an advocate for Israel as his predecessor in the district, Abner Mikva (now a federal judge), and has the advantage of not facing defeat every election as Mikva did...

...Black, liberal, sensitive to Jewish concerns, Gray faces Milton Street, a radical who is running as a Republican and who has been vociferous in his anti-Jewish, anti-Israel remarks...

...Voters are more likely to be activists, and the pool of switchers and independents is likely to be much smaller...

...a conservative supporter of Pres...

...Shamansky, who is Jewish, faces a difficult reelection challenge from right-wing State Senator John Kasich...

...Fascell is very close to the Miami Jewish community, an astute legislative strategist, and with the loss of Bingham and Derwinski, would be perhaps Israel's most important ally on the committee in the next Congress...

...Nonetheless, the near-term loss generally outweighs potential gains: The critical mass that characterized certain northeastern delegations, that encouraged rural congressmen to be sensitive to national Jewish concerns even if there were few Jews in their own districts, has been diminished...

...Redistricting—the redrawing of districts within a state—has not damaged Jewish political interests as much as many thought it would a year ago...

...Jack Kemp (Rep.-NY) has emerged as one of Israel's new stalwarts in Congress...

...A conscientious legislator, Skelton is precisely the sort of politician who rarely receives much national Jewish support and attention, but certainly merits both...

...Fountain (Dem.-NC) and David Bowen (Dem.-MS) were no friends of Israel and are retiring...

...In Illinois, it cost supporters of Israel one of their best friends among conservative Republicans—Ed Derwinski, who was forced into a primary with another member and lost...

...This has several effects...

...Long, irascible but always strongly pro-Israel, was vocal in expressing his annoyance that Jews did not work harder in the state legislature in resisting the shift...

...Heckler is currently favored, but the race is expected to tighten if the economy does not turn around this fall...

...Another new district, in northern Dade/southern Broward counties in Florida, reflects the movement of Jews to the Sunbelt, Two Jews are vying for the Democratic nomination...

...Ottinger is currently favored...

...Phil Burton (Dem.-CA), who is not Jewish, faces Milton Marks, who is...

...The 1982 House races, then, will make a considerable change in the power alignment in Washington, hence in the votes that occur in the next Congress...

...Ted Weiss (Dem.-NY) is safe...

...Matt McHugh (Dem.-NY) is extremely good on Israel-related issues...

...So is Ron Wyden (Dem.-OR...

...House Foreign Affairs Committee The makeup of the committee is certain to change significantly in the next Congress...

...Howard Wolpe (Dem.-MI), liberal and Jewish, benefitted considerably from redistricting...

...This time, he and his vocal backer, Sen...

...His most recent article for moment, '"Have You Seen the Survey Yet?'," appeared in the May 1982 issue...

...He will probably be joined in the next Congress by his longtime California ally, Howard Berman, who is expected to take a new seat...

...Committee Chairman Clement Zablocki (Dem.-WI) has a very different district from the old ethnic bastion he held for years...

...Tom Lantos (Dem.-CA), Jewish and a Holocaust survivor, confronts the man he defeated, Bill Royer...

...Paul Findley (Rep.-IL) is unquestionably target number one of American Jewish political activists...

...So we need to get busy in those places, to organize and make friends now...

...he is challenging Heckler in what is largely her old redoubt...

...Thus, particular attention has been paid here to elections involving members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the Foreign Operations Subcommittee of the Appropriations Committee...

...Other Races of Interest Ed Zschau, a moderate Republican, is favored to take the California seat Pete McCloskey left to run unsuccessfully for the Senate...

...Marc Marks (Rep.-PA) is retiring...

...Michael Barnes (Dem.-MD) appears headed for victory over Republican Marian Greenblatt...

...Frost, a knowledgeable and hard working congressman, will be considerably more secure if, as expected, he bests Patterson this time around...

...AuCoin has a tough race against former Georgia Pacific executive Bill Moshofsky...

...Findley has been aided by the work of his Jewish media advisor, Robert Goodman of Baltimore...

...Daub has been a disappointment to Omaha's Jewish community, particularly for his stand on the AWACS sale, and Fellman is receiving considerable support in what is considered an uphill fight...

...In Alabama's Sixth District...

...Gray is favored and eminently deserving of support...

...He now appears headed for reelection...

...Jewish Members and Races Involving Jews In the current Congress, there are 26 Jewish House members (after the resignation of Rep...

...A number of Republican incumbents, sensing this, are already at pains to distance themselves from Reaganomics and the President...

...Les AuCoin (Dem.-OR) is a proven vote-getter with ambitions to run against Sen...

...Willis Gradison (Rep.-OH) is safe...

...New York's Jonathan Bingham, for example, decided to retire rather than go through a fractious primary and general election...

...one of the most formidable incumbents in the state, faces a surprisingly tough challenge from Adam Levin...

...Key Committee members who appear safe include Julian Dixon (Dem.-CA), Bill Lehman (Dem.-FL) and Charles Wilson (Dem.-TX...

...Findley was the favored recipient of oil PAC donations in 1980...

...As with the population shift, the redrawing of districts often has mixed consequences...

...Richard Ottinger (Dem.-NY) faces a potentially tight race from State Assemblyman Jon Fossell in a district where Ottinger's support is considered by some to be soft...

...The primary will be held as this issue of moment is published...

...The outspoken supporter of Yassir Arafat has gone from bad to worse, assaulting Israel verbally at every opportunity and lobbying his colleagues energetically...

...Finally, Ike Skelton (Dem.-MO), a moderate who is one of the little-known stalwarts of Israel's support in the House, faces a close race...

...William Brodhead (Dem.-MI) was one of the most respected members of the House and stunned admirers when he announced his retirement after four terms...

...He is one of the most talented politicians in Congress and will be returned convincingly...

...Eckart has good ties to the Cleveland Jewish community and is considered, like Michael Barnes, a future contender for a Senate seat if he bests Glenn Warner this fall...

...Anthony Beilenson (Dem.-CA) was redistricted but is expected to be reelected...

...Richard Boiling (Dem...

...As with the survey of Senate races published in moment last March, the following tour of elections is not all-encompassing...

...Wheat, who is a Black state senator, has expressed an interest in becoming the voice for Israel in the Congressional Black Caucus...

...John Porter (Rep.-IL) is a moderate, a competent and engaging politician who is attuned to the interests of his Jewish constituents...

...Long is still favored for reelection...

...His opponent, Norman Sisisky, is a well-known, committed Jew who is well-positioned to upset the incumbent...

...House Foreign Operations Subcommittee William Gray (Dem.-PA) is a potential chairman of the entire Appropriations Committee...

...Though the Republican Party invested millions of dollars in a sophisticated computer-aided national redistricting program, it was outma-neuvered politically by Democratic rivals in a number of states, notably California, Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey...

...Ira Lechner, a liberal Democrat, is trying to defeat frank Wolf (Rep.-VA...

...Peyser is more liberal...

...Gilman, who is Jewish, is currently favored...

...American Jews have come of political age during the last decade, and appear well-positioned to make the adjustments the next decade will require if Jewish interests and concerns are to be protected...

...The Jewish Mayor of Mercer Island, Washington, Beth Bland, will be the Democratic nominee in a new district that is generally Republican and in which the competition for the Republican nod has been bitter...

...Sidney Yates (Dem.-IL), the dean of Jewish House members, has a strong challenge from Cathy Bertini after a difficult primary race in which he acquitted himself well...

...Did it go to New Mexico, which is anti-foreign aid and conservative for the most part...

...Charles Mathias when the Republican incumbent, a critic of Jewish lobbying, runs for reelection in 1986...

...Burton is a fire-breathing liberal and staunch supporter of Israel whose influence has diminished somewhat since his narrow loss of the Majority Leader's post some years ago...

...A third, Maurice Berkowitz, is the Republican nominee...

...Though endorsed by McCloskey, Zschau is expected to be much more favorable to Israel...

...For Altman and other Washington professionals, the problem is not an insuperable one, and at least part of the solution is obvious: "You've got to begin to shift your perspective to 'out there,' " Altman states...

...Those who vote are apt to be motivated by particular concerns, and a number of pollsters are picking up signs that the continuing recession and record unemployment may mean the loss of some marginal Republican seats and the failure to defeat Democratic incumbents whose new districts might in other times send a Republican to Washington...

...James Scheuer (Dem.-NY) is now running from his fourth district...

...Dante Fascell (Dem.-FL), who would be second in seniority on the committee and possibly chairman if Wisconsin's Clement Zablocki loses his September primary fight, faces a tough race from newscaster Glenn Rinker...

...Dick Fellman is the Jewish challenger to Nebraska's Hal Daub (Rep...

...Ken Kramer (Rep.-CO) is safe...

...William Armstrong in 1984...

...In a key race, Lynn Cutler, a Democrat, is favored to take an Iowa House seat she narrowly lost in 1980 to Republican Cooper Evans...