PACs Vobiscum
Rosenbaum, Aaron
PACs VOBISCUM AARON ROSENBAUM ". . . I think that's a perception that is very, very supportable by the facts, by polling data, by statements by Jewish leaders, that in fact Jews are more...
...Washington: Henry Jackson (Dem...
...His Republican opposition is unresolved, and he seems safe...
...Ohio: Howard Metzenbaum (Dem...
...He may face former Rep...
...Malcolm Wallop (Rep...
...But Jews have very diverse interests, and a solid argument can be made that though most remain skeptical of Reaganesque conservatism, their traditional ties to liberalism have weakened considerably...
...In 1976, thiles refused to take out-of-state contributions (and any donation greater than $10...
...Metzenbaum's race ranks with that of Sarbanes in importance for the Jewish community...
...Laingen is regarded as being the most formidable of the three and the most moderate on Like Packwood, Durenberger has compiled an outstanding record on Israel-related issues...
...He is likely to face businessman Raymond Shamie, who has railed against government intervention in business, yet who reportedly began his successful company with a Small Business Administration loan arranged by Kennedy's office...
...Rudy Boschwitz, who is...
...Hatch co-sponsored the AWACS resolution of disapproval, then changed his position under White House pressure in early October...
...Levinson will obviously do well with Jewish voters in Delaware and donors out-of-state...
...Nebraska: Ed Zorinsky is a moderate-to-conservative Democrat...
...West Virginia: Minority leader Robert Byrd, a moderate Democrat, has been in the Senate for more than two decades, yet recently his always times seems to be a salient characteristic of many conservatives...
...Delaware: Republican Sen...
...Former national chairman of the UJA Frank Lautenberg may challenge for the Democratic nod...
...Hawaii: Spark Matsunaga has one domestic issues...
...Reagan for suspending F-16 deliveries to Israel...
...A surprising opportunity, and one well worth a response...
...Kennedy has a terrific fund-raising apparatus...
...PACs VOBISCUM AARON ROSENBAUM ". . . I think that's a perception that is very, very supportable by the facts, by polling data, by statements by Jewish leaders, that in fact Jews are more interested in being liberals than they are in being Jews . . . There isn't political capital in being conservative and pro-Israel...
...Reagan but he has been excellent on Israel-related issues...
...Utah: Orrin Hatch (Rep...
...See the moment interview with Sarbanes that follows this article...
...It is hard to see how a Republican could have much appeal this year in Michigan, a state with Depression-level unemployment...
...A textbook example of where the moderate incumbent is apt to be better on domestic issues and Israel than any likely alternative, and is deserving of support...
...On the other hand, almost all want the Senate to contain as many supporters of Israel as Aaron Rosenbaum is a moment contributing editor...
...Roth's record on foreign aid is rather good, and he stood firm against White House pressure on both the F-15s in 1978 and the AWACS in 1981...
...will leave the Senate this year...
...On Israel, he has been outspoken and favorable since his first run for the presidency, in 1976...
...Maryland: Paul Sarbanes is a leading liberal Democrat and is high on the NCPAC hit list...
...One of two Jews is likely to win the Democratic nomination: former Attorney General Julius Michaelson or businessman Marvin Holland...
...Wisconsin: William Proxmire (Dem...
...The best job in the world is to be an incumbent senator from the party that does not control the White House...
...Walter "Mad Dog" Mengden in the general election...
...He is also looking for out-of-state contributions...
...DeConcini is one of those senators whose votes will be crucial to the defenders of liberal domestic programs...
...Texas: Lloyd Bentsen (Dem...
...There are some notable exceptions, of course, but the cooling public response to the president's policies and continuing concern about the economy make conservative candidates in general far less appealing this year than they were in 1980...
...He faces James Keck, former vice-commander of the Strategic Air Command...
...New York: Daniel Patrick Moynihan (Dem...
...On Israel, Florio's record is good, Fenwick's is outstanding and Lautenberg knows a few things about what concerns the Jewish community...
...Byrd is a NCPAC target and for the first time is looking for national money...
...Hatch has been spreading the word that he is in trouble, and his campaign coffers are overflowing...
...is a hardworking, progressive legislator...
...of the safest seats in the Senate...
...Maine: George Mitchell, the moderate Democratic incumbent has been "excellent, with a capital E" says one Jewish politico in Washington...
...In that important sense, they are newly available to those candidates, of whatever party, who support their interests best...
...But as one Jewish fundraiser said, "If I've got two guys who are going to come out for AWACS, and one is a Jew, I'll take the non-Jew...
...Sarbanes has been outspoken on behalf of Israel in the Foreign Relations Committee...
...A strong ally of labor and the poor, Riegle has been a worker for Israel-related issues since his days in the House, and knows the subject well...
...Minnesota: Sen...
...Mitchell looks to the Jewish community for its opinions on a wide range of issues and is well regarded by his colleagues...
...Barry Gold-water, Jr., San Diego Mayor Pete Wilson, Maureen Reagan (the President's daughter), Rep...
...Dolan's other comment—that conservatives do not see much political advantage accruing from their support for Israel—is a perception common among many Republicans and nearly all conservatives...
...has been singularly unresponsive on Jewish concerns, foreign and domestic...
...A sterling individual...
...With McDonnell Douglas in his state, he voted for the F-15s but spurned Reagan on the AWACS...
...You get to run a challenger campaign and say, T don't like what's going wrong,' yet you still have all the power of incumbency...
...Roth is the co-author of the Kemp-Roth tax-cut plan, and one of the Administration's stalwarts in the Senate...
...On Middle East issues, Kennedy is always there when needed...
...is a conservative supporter of Pres...
...Florida: Moderate Democrat Lawton Chiles appears safe...
...Domestically, Fenwick is by far the most conservative of the three, but she has none of the callousness that someTennessee: James Sasser (Dem...
...These days, Jews have an obligation to be responsive to and supportive of many moderate and certain conservative candidates...
...The choice these days is often between a centrist/conservative and an ideologue of the New Right...
...narrowly beaten for the governorship, may run for the Senate...
...Wilson is a moderate and McCloskey is a Republican liberal...
...His lines to the Florida Jewish community are deep and diverse...
...The interests and the political credibility of the American Jewish community are best served by this approach...
...A review of key House elections will be published in a future issue of moment...
...He is a good judge of how his colleagues are leaning...
...It is probably unnecessary to note that Moynihan is a great friend-of the Jewish community...
...Beard is also cool towards Israel...
...Byrd is one of the most powerful members of the Senate, and Benedict is bad news, both domestically and in foreign affairs...
...In those elections, liberal senators were defeated in droves...
...took incredible heat to vote against the AWACS...
...Similarly, though Israel is a primary issue for most American Jews, it is by no means the only issue, or the only basis on which votes are cast and checks are signed...
...On the Mideast: wrong on the F-15s, wrong on the AWACS...
...Metzenbaum ranks with Kennedy as the bete noir of the New Right's antiunion sector...
...He is unlikely to need campaign contributions, but he is eminently deserving...
...In 1982, most liberal incumbents really don't need a lot of help...
...is Jewish, and has shown growing clout with his colleagues...
...He is one of the key senators who took up the slack after Case, Javits, Church, Stone and Bayh lost...
...Both Weicker and Moffett are outstanding liberals...
...Terry Dolan's statements illustrate the dilemma that now confronts politically active Jews...
...possible...
...Perceptions, being subjective, are not readily changed by argument and riposte...
...Danforth is a shoo-in for reelection...
...is a Reagan favorite and a leader of the New Right...
...Yet Dolan's assertion about facts and polling data and the statements of Jewish leaders is not per se incorrect...
...Despite its progressive orientation, the American Jewish community is not monolithic...
...But politically sophisticated Jews will also recognize their responsibility to aid certain moderate and conservative candidates whose stands on both domestic issues and on Israel are better—or not worse—than those of their opponents...
...McCloskey has made bitter denunciations of American Jewish attempts to "control" Congress...
...Paul "Pete" McCloskey are vying for the Republican nomination...
...A NCPAC target, Bentsen faces a tough race...
...Gold-water is a mainstream conservative...
...More Jews are donating through both registered and informal PACs than in the past...
...Gold-water campaign leaders, acknowledging their candidate's domestic policies, are actively soliciting Jewish support on the basis of Goldwater's adequate voting record on Israel-related issues and leadership in the fight against the AWACS in the House...
...The natural instinct of many Jews—to rally to the liberals—is both short-sighted and insufficient...
...Recalling the records of Clifford Case, Frank Church, Birch Bayh and Jacob Javits, Jews will certainly give votes and contributions this year to traditional liberals...
...Dolan could benefit from a seminar on tikun olam, the central Jewish concept of repairing the world...
...On the one hand, most want to ensure that there be no repeat of 1978 and especially of 1980...
...John Ashbrook, a New Right leader, or Rep...
...could probably beat New Right Sen...
...Current ads start with the question, "Did you know that Paul Sarbanes voted for forced busing, yet he sends his own son to private school...
...Alan Baron, publisher of the authoritative Washington political newsletter The Baron Report, says of the Democratic incumbents: "All these guys are lucky Carter lost...
...He is considered beatable, and contributions go a long way in sparsely populated New Mexico...
...They may also be asked to modify established patterns of giving...
...So there it is, familiar names and unfamiliar ones, friends and enemies, liberals and conservatives, Republicans and Democrats...
...Yet whatever support Roth receives will bolster Jewish credibility and leverage among conservative Republicans...
...There just aren't that many liberals in office any more...
...Moreover, the Reagan program has made Byrd more "out front" on domestic, social and economic issues...
...Jews making campaign contributions this year will have a large number of candidates to consider...
...Sasser will face New Right darling Robin Beard, whose record as a Republican congressman has been very conservative...
...Ed Herschler (Dem...
...His votes on domestic policy have been well-considered and he has an excellent record on Israel-related issues...
...His seat became more secure when Gov...
...He is trying to maintain this policy for 1982, but this may change if the Republicans can find a viable candidate...
...DeConcini's votes on foreign aid have been adequate, but he distinguished himself during the AWACS fight, when he resisted enormous lobbying pressures from both the White House and his conservative home state...
...Dennis DeConcini is a middle-of-the-road Democrat, but has been targeted by NCPAC anyway...
...These are the reasons why: First, if the "liberal agenda" as represented by programs now being cut by the Reagan Administration survives in any form, it will do so only with the help of centrists of both parties...
...So what should Jews do in 1982...
...Weicker has warned that a significant defection of Jewish voters to Moffett will undermine Jewish credibility among moderate and progressive Republicans...
...But that appears unlikely...
...A race to watch...
...Missouri: John Danforth (Rep...
...He is running against Rep...
...Massachusetts: Ted Kennedy is NCPAC's number one target...
...Holland has been much more active in the Jewish community than Michaelson, who has heavy labor backing...
...Second, most of the liberal "targets" have more reason for confidence than their colleagues did two years ago...
...This is a self-evident statement to Jewish political operatives in Washington, though it violates the assumptions of many Jews outside the nation's capital, particularly in the Northeast...
...He is a liberal Democrat...
...Cleve Benedict, an arch-conservative...
...William Roth will probably face businessman David Levinson, who is Jewish...
...Polls, in particular, show that Jews are still the most liberal cohort in the American body politic...
...The recent Jewish political tradition in this country is a liberal tradition, and the ties of the Jewish community to the Democrats are intricate and extensive...
...What you get are all the advantages of incumbency and not the one disadvantage: responsibility for what's happening in the world...
...A NCPAC and pro-life target, Riegle is looking for contributions nationally to help counter their million-dollar assault on his record...
...On Israel, DeConcini is the perfect example of the senator whose support is solid and reliable, yet often taken for granted...
...New Jersey: A good friend of Israel and a progressive legislator despite his Abscam troubles, Harrison Williams (Dem...
...Lowell Weicker for the Republican nomination...
...The PACs of the New Right, for better or for worse, have set an example for others, have ^.demonstrated that vast sums can be raised through many small donations...
...A close race in a small state, where well-placed contributions will make a difference...
...William Milliken decided to retire from politics, rather than run for the Senate...
...A "mainline conservative Democrat with nothing but oil and gas influence hitting him every day," in the words of one Texas Jewish leader, Bentsen is knowledgeable on the Middle East and a Senate power...
...One featured a husky hard hat responding to news of Sarbanes' record with a look of befuddlement bordering on bovine stupidity...
...The winner is expected to face Rep...
...The Jew will take other people with him...
...Sarbanes will probably face either Larry Hogan, who was one of the few county executives in the nation to take a position on the AWACS sale (he was in favor), Frank Perdue, the Eastern Shore chicken king, or Bruce Laingen, the former Iranian hostage...
...Terry Dolan, NCPAC Dolan is wrong and Dolan is right, and most Jews immediately detect the simultaneous flaws and truths in his hyperbole...
...Add to this several realities: First, the PACs of the New Right that were so active in 1980, targeting liberal senators, have another "hit list" this time and are even better funded...
...In Massachusetts, a wide range of pro-life, pro-handgun, anti-busing groups are already placing ads savaging Kennedy...
...Bush, who obviously supports the President's domestic program and has said little about Israel, runs a distant third in the race for Jewish support...
...Those interests, if they are to be accomplished, and that credibility, if it is to be established and maintained, require that Jewish support and Jewish votes be available to Republican candidates...
...Sasser is one of those senators who is little known to the national Jewish community but who comprises the backbone of Israel's support in the Senate...
...Durenberger is more conservative on certain domestic issues than most Jews, but no more so than Oregon's Robert Packwood...
...Zorinsky, who is Jewish, voted against foreign aid recently...
...As a Greek-American, Sarbanes has defended ethnic lobbying...
...More important, he is the leading liberal in the Senate, and despite his own occasional shortcomings, its conscience...
...Chafee has been hurt on economic issues...
...Jews both instate and nationally are likely to divide sharply over this race...
...New Mexico: Sen...
...Goldwater currently leads in the polls but McCloskey has gained some strength as Wilson has slipped...
...Weicker's record on Israel is beyond reproach, but Moffett's has caused concern: an Arab-American, Moffett was one of the few members of Congress to meet with Yasser Arafat while visiting the Middle East...
...He has been a pleasant surprise since he entered the Senate...
...David Emery, a moderate-to-conservative Republican, who was one of but a handful of congressmen to sponsor a resolution congratulating Pres...
...But Moynihan is high on the New Right's list...
...for those who care about our country and the lives of its citizens, it is an obligation as well...
...Durenberger, who is not Jewish, has the active and enthusiastic support of his Minnesota colleague, Sen...
...His domestic votes are apt to be better than his would-be successors', and he deserves help just for his courageous vote against the AWACS...
...Arizona: Sen...
...Jewish supporters of both candidates are now actively seeking contributions from outside the state...
...That, in any case, is how it must come to be perceived if lobbying efforts are to be effective on both sides of the aisle...
...Connecticut: Prescott Bush, the brother of the Vice-President, is challenging Sen...
...He has made several statements in favor of "talking with whatever moderate elements in the PLO we can find," and was one of a handful of House members to vote for a 1976 amendment favoring an aid cut to Israel and against a 1978 amendment eliminating aid to Syria...
...After eight years as governor, Brown is less sui generis and more of a traditional liberal...
...Millicent Fenwick leads for the Republican nomination...
...Chiles is a NCPAC target...
...What follows is a summary of those Senate races that I believe will be of particular interest to the American Jewish community this year...
...his record on Israel has been poor and his domestic votes have been true to his conservative principles...
...He faces Rep...
...Jerry Apodaca, who is popular among New Mexico's Jews, and State Attorney General Jeff Binghaman...
...Jim Collins, businessman Don Richardson or State Sen...
...He reportedly has a typical State Department view of the Middle East...
...He may face conservative Rep...
...He is also one of the best friends Israel has ever had in the Congress...
...He will face Ted Wilson, the mayor of Salt Lake City...
...Formerly heavily favored, Hatch's margin is reportedly shrinking...
...Yet he is hoping for broader Jewish support than he received in the past...
...Third, many moderate and conservative senators who may differ with the majority of American Jews on domestic policy but who have solid records on Israel are actively soliciting Jewish campaign contributions nationally and Jewish votes at home...
...It may well prove that 1982, though not a presidential year, will be the most expensive election many people have known, for there is a new sense that the complexion of the Senate does make a real difference, and that the millions the PACs of the New Right are already spending need to be, and can be, countered by dollars raised from those who are dismayed by what happened in 1980—and by what has happened since...
...He is also a smart campaigner and possessed of extraordinary intelligence...
...Rhode Island: John Chafee (Rep...
...During the last two years, Moffett has repeatedly asserted a more visibly pro-Israel position, while matching Weicker, liberal vote for liberal vote...
...Clarence Brown will likely win the Republican nomination...
...Robert Dornan and Rep...
...Early ads were poorly received...
...It is a sign of the times that this might be a source of concern in New York this year...
...is safe...
...Bruce Caputo...
...He has also been outspoken on consumer and energy issues...
...is a moderate and a NCPAC target...
...Phil Ruppe in the general election...
...His general record has not been distinguished, and he gave a presumptuous—some say condescending—address to the recent plenary session of the National Jewish Community Relations Advisory Council in Houston...
...Wallop surprised moderate Gale McGee in 1976...
...Because other pro-Israel leaders in the Senate seem relatively secure in 1982 (see below), the Sarbanes race is probably the most important nationally for the Jewish community...
...Domestically, he is much better than Beard and deserves help...
...What grates especially is his suggestion that Jews "are more interested in being liberals than they are in being Jews...
...California: The Republican incumbent, S. I. Hayakawa, has announced his retirement...
...Because races now begin a year or more before the election, and because few Senate races can be run for less than a million and a half dollars, contributions made in the spring will necessarily earn an extra measure of influence and access...
...The rightward movement that some polls detected within the Jewish community in the late 1970's has now been slowed, as a consequence of the distress caused by President Reagan's domestic budget cuts (and to a lesser extent, by his foreign and defense policies...
...In a sense, keeping McCloskey from gaining the Republican nomination is probably the highest Jewish priority in the California Senate race...
...Likely opponents for Schmitt include former Democratic Gov...
...He was a pivotal vote for the AWACS, and provided half of the President's margin of victory...
...James Florio (Dem...
...He is likely to face either State Sen...
...Jerry Brown is favored for the Democratic nomination...
...James Rhodes announced he would not run for the Senate...
...If Herschler does not run, Wallop is favored...
...David Durenberger is a moderate Republican facing a liberal Democrat: Mark Dayton, a department store scion who is married to a Rockefeller...
...Emery generally supports Reagan on domestic issues...
...And that is as it should be, if the purpose of the enterprise is political success rather than ideological purity...
...should be safe against former Rep...
...Emery has been to Saudi Arabia but not Israel, and according to his staff, "really understands" the Saudis...
...Pete Dunn or businessman Dean Sellers...
...Their objective is to make Kennedy the issue...
...NCPAC began running ads against him 19 months before the 1982 election...
...If he begins to slip in the polls, this would immediately be considered a key race...
...His record on issues affecting Israel is first rate...
...Harrison Schmitt (Rep...
...Jewish political giving to out-of-state races formerly tended to be concentrated in the last three months of the campaign...
...Most readers, whatever their political beliefs, would respond: Jewish liberalism grows out of Judaism...
...Furthermore, when a candidate is the beneficiary of Jewish political and financial support, and when this support is unexpected because of the candidate's relative conservatism, synergy is created: Senators of a similar ideological stripe gradually increase their sensitivity and responsiveness to the concerns of the Jewish community—not only on Israel, but on domestic issues as well...
...Wyoming: Gov...
...This race has already divided the Connecticut Jewish community...
...has been a big disappointment, more conservative domestically than his press clippings would indicate...
...But Kennedy appears safe...
...The benefits (increased leverage, enhanced access) far outweigh the perceived disadvantages (loss of individual contact, vulnerability to invidious charges by anti-Semites...
...Our right to make political contributions is not merely a guaranteed opportunity...
...DeConcini's relations with the Arizona Jewish community are excellent...
...Second, many Jews may desire to vote for or send money only to traditional liberals, but in many cases, a moderate or even a conservative may be a more realistic alternative...
...Jews will probably give money to Zorinsky, only because Keck appears to be an order of magnitude worse on both domestic issues and on Israel...
...When awake, he was an unmitigated disaster on both domestic programs and on Israel...
...Given Rhode Island's small voting population, contributions here may make a significant difference this fall...
...Toby Moffett in the general election, but there is speculation that Weicker, if defeated by Bush, would stay in the race as an independent...
...If elected, Dayton would likely be popular nationally among Jews...
...His primary problem is that his record is considerably more liberal than his rhetoric...
...but if Durenberger is returned to the Senate, his helpful influence upon his moderate and conservative Republican colleagues will be particularly important...
...well-considered positions on the Middle East have become more outspokenly pro-Israek His vote against AWACS almost turned the tide...
...Given Brown's general lack of popularity and Goldwater's less than luminous intellectual reputation, this is a race where most Jewish energies will be devoted to defeating McCloskey, and will, therefore, peak with the Republican primary...
...Clearly, this is not quite so simple a matter as might at first be supposed...
...If most Jews are liberal, it is because they've been raised to put their religious principles into social practice...
...If the attacks of NCPAC and other PACs start to undermine what has up to now been solid support in the state, this would become a key race...
...Third, when Jews focus on Israel and not domestic issues, they are obligated to remember that congressional support for the Jewish State comes from every part of the political spectrum...
...Democrats are still getting their act together...
...Michigan: Don Riegle, a liberal Democrat, was helped immeasurably when Gov...
...His article, "The AWACS Aftermath," appeared in the December 1981 issue...
...If most liberal incumbents are relatively secure, then it is also true that Israel's political fortunes in the United States should not be tied to the health of liberalism...
...Dayton is likely to benefit from splits in the Republican party and the coattails of the popular Democratic heir-apparent to the governorship, Warren Spannaus...
Vol. 7 • March 1982 • No. 3
