Washington Slips On The AWACS
Fein, Leonard
WASHINGTON SLIPS ON THE AWACS LEONARD FEIN If Jimmy Carter had been reelected, and had gone forward—as now we know he intended to—with the proposal to sell to Saudi Arabia an "enhancement...
...The United States is not about to throw Israel to the wolves...
...The Carter administration had pressed hard then, and the Israelis were uncertain, and a major drive in opposition to the sale was mounted only at the last minute— and proved ineffective...
...Pressed quite vigorously by the reporters present, who expressed some measure of disbelief on hearing Fisher's sanguine assessment, Fisher explained: "When a man like President Reagan, in whom we have great faith and great confidence, states categorically his position— and I want to repeat this to you— that the balance of power in the Middle East will not be disturbed, that is a very convincing statement, at least as far as I am concerned...
...we were reassured and comfortable that the strategic balance will be maintained...
...And if the West were to do that, "Saudi Arabia...
...In addition, there are persistent rumors in Washington that the proposal will be amended, or side-deals developed, in an effort to overcome the current opposition...
...the JTIDS, TEWS, AMRAAM and synthetic aperture radar, collectively known as the Strike Eagle suite of ground atyack and air combat improvements...
...Is it not time to consider the possibility of putting an end to the rape of the Middle East by Europe and America...
...But among the systems now available or under development, the F-15 might also be adorned with the GBU-15 and associated air-to-ground precision-guided missiles and homing bombs...
...The enhancement package under discussion just now is not, as it turns out, the only way of enhancing the F-15...
...The fact is that this administration is breaking no new ground in its dealing with the Saudis...
...But it does not go nearly far enough, for it leaves the F-15 enhancement package very much in place, and on this issue, it is worth fighting, and fighting hard, even if the likelihood is that we will lose...
...Further, the F-15 would become, as Hirsh Goodman, military editor of the Jerusalem Post has argued, "idiot-proof—capable of being serviced on the ground in a very short time even by relatively inexpert mechanics...
...This air-to-air missile has omnidirectional capability...
...so far, it is the only priority...
...a Saudi pilot would not need to position himself behind an Israeli aircraft in order to score a direct hit...
...No reciprocity is warranted for a policy that is based not on restraint but on self-interest...
...First: This administration is deeply committed to keeping the Soviets out of the Persian Gulf area...
...Fisher, a long-time Republican fundraiser, is arguably the most powerful Jewish leader in America...
...What about the "black box," without which the AWACS is allegedly harmless...
...And if the Soviets will not comply, then let this nation at least have the good sense to insist from those who demand weapons for which they have no decent use that the payment be not only in dollars but in policy as well...
...It was only when the AWACS were added to the administration proposal that the American Jewish community announced its readiness to fight the entire package, AWACS and F-15s alike...
...As one prominent Jewish liberal who energetically supported Reagan said last month, "I voted for him on one issue and one issue alone—and that issue was Israel, of course...
...Still, the Jewish community was silent...
...That problem has by now, according to all reports, been resolved...
...In choosing between blunting the Soviets and any other foreign policy goal, the former takes priority...
...There is no sop the administration can toss Israel that will resolve it, no acceptable compromise it can propose that will remove it...
...the AWACS can be custom-designed to give more or less information...
...Is it not reasonable to expect that three years from now the Saudis may exact still further evidence of America's friendship...
...The principal point they made was that no political quid pro quo had been demanded from the Saudis in return for these weapons, and this just after Saudi Arabia had called for a jihad—a holy war—against "the Zionist entity...
...That is the unfortunate and unambiguous lesson of the F-15/AW ACS proposal...
...In any case, it is not easy to see how the provision of AWACS to the Saudis would help deter Soviet aggression in the Gulf region...
...It is worth fighting because the issue is so...
...There is a conflict between this administration's professed concern for Israel's security and its proposed sale of military equipment to Saudi Arabia...
...As important as it is that America resolutely resist Soviet subversion and expansionism, it will be self-defeating if this nation attempts to force its own understanding on all the nations with which we deal...
...Stopping the Soviets is not merely the highest priority of the Reagan-Haig foreign policy...
...As it had been up until the last minute when the original authorization was given the sale of 60 "un-enhanced" F-15s to the Saudis back in 1978...
...Fourth: In general, the United States has experienced interesting benefits from conflict in the Middle East...
...These perceptions, regarding both the Russian bear and the Saudi fox, are not unknown to the Reagan administration...
...The reporters were blunt: "The question that is bothering all of us .. . is whether any of you gentlemen see any conflict...
...Every time a new president enters the White House, there is some back and forth before the organized Jewish community develops a working relationship with the new administration...
...1000 to 1800 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles...
...Ever since the days of Franklin Roosevelt, America has behaved towards Saudi Arabia as if that nation were the mighty power, we the supplicant...
...The total value of the package is $2.5 billion...
...That is by no means all the AWACS can do...
...In due course, the AWACS were added, at the urging of Secretary of Defense Weinberger and, as of April 1, with the approval of the National Security Council...
...And then he added ruefully, "I thought we'd get at least one good year out of him...
...Israel's Foreign Minister Shamir made it clear during his March visit to Washington that Israel would not put up a major fight on the F-15 matter...
...nor) has Saudi Arabia requested that the plane be outfitted with Ejection Racks (MER 200) which would allow the plane to carry a substantial bomb load...
...Given the size of the forces, actual and potential, that might be deployed against Israel, significant deterioration in any of these three elements represents a damaging blow to Israel's security...
...In order to win acceptance of the 1978 sale, then Secretary of Defense Harold Brown assured the Senate, in writing, that "the planes will not have conformal fuel tanks...
...Third: The ability to sell two billion dollars worth of AWACS not only helps the American economy...
...In the old days, it was because of oil alone...
...But here we have the 1977 testimony of then-CIA Director Stans-field Turner: If the Soviets were to gain access to AWACS, they could leapfrog five to seven years forward in certain technologies...
...It cannot...
...Some Republicans in Congress shared this view, and expressed it...
...and that Israel from a qualitative, military security point of view will emerge stronger than she is going in without these enhancements...
...let the Saudis be told that so long as they oppose Camp David and so long as their senior ministers define Israel as the most serious threat their kingdom faces, there will be no AWACS, no enhancements, no more F-15s at all...
...In the meantime, several Democratic senators—Biden, Kennedy, Cranston and others—had begun a fight on the Senate floor...
...We need merely think that he and his advisors are mistaken in supposing that they can go forward with the Saudi sale and not be accused of subverting that concern and Israel's safety with it...
...As to the AWACS, the Pentagon itself has claimed that the addition of the AWACS to NATO's armory is the equivalent of doubling NATO's entire force of interceptor aircraft...
...First, the details: The current proposal, not yet formally submitted to Congress, which has the authority to reject it, is to sell to the Saudis 62 sets of auxiliary fuel tanks that will substantially extend the range of their F-15s...
...There is no way around that conflict...
...So, for that matter, did the Russians...
...WASHINGTON SLIPS ON THE AWACS LEONARD FEIN If Jimmy Carter had been reelected, and had gone forward—as now we know he intended to—with the proposal to sell to Saudi Arabia an "enhancement package" for its F-15s and the AW ACS surveillance system, he would have been savaged by Israel's friends in this country...
...No such redefinition has been proposed, nor is it a happy prospect for a nation that values its independence...
...Here theories abound, and the truth is almost certainly a combination of elements from each...
...It cannot "see" objects on the ground...
...deeply disturbed by, and opposed to, the proposed sale...
...The Israelis, fearing a dispute with the Reagan administration in its first days, chose to accept American assurances that Israel would be "compensated" for the Saudi sale...
...The voice promises safety for Israel, but the hands are busy ringing up the sales of weapons to Israel's sworn enemies in the service of no defensible American purpose...
...The second is far more tangible and in evidence than the first, and an actual danger is obviously worse than a potential danger...
...picks them up several hundred miles out, takes the closest targets [and] can vector the F-15 into the general vicinity...
...For that reason, the administration, if it is disposed to compromise—there is no sign of that as yet—may well choose to drop the AWACS, at least for the time being, and press for the F-15s...
...Boeing's own puffery—it manufactures the AWACS—has been replaced by uncharacteristic modesty, and the layperson may justifiably feel confused...
...one must listen also to what they say when they speak at home...
...For the fact is that the AWACS, whatever its precise technical specifications, is the most advanced—and the most expensive—air control and command resource in the world...
...The deadly logic of an escalating arms race is considerably more perverse now than it was in 1905, when Shaw wrote...
...second, it must retain its qualitative superiority...
...The meeting had not been scheduled specifically to deal with the F-15 proposal, which by then was public...
...On this matter, we have the direct evidence of Sheik Yamani: "To the Saudis there are only two threats in this world: international communism and Israel...
...There is no dearth of arguments with which to oppose the administration proposal...
...Others were distressed that leadership on the issue had been taken by liberal Democrats, just at a time when the Republicans had begun to make serious inroads into the traditional Jewish-Democratic alliance...
...important...
...Not many weeks ago, Helmut Schmidt chose to reject Saudi Arabia's request for German tanks...
...The word was passed that only if the AWACS were added to the proposal, as it was rumored they might be, would serious opposition be mounted...
...Israel's qualitative superiority, which has enabled it to withstand attacks by vastly larger forces, is radically diminished...
...Three years ago, the Saudis were prepared to accept the unenhanced F-15s as a sufficient token...
...But what, it will be asked, of the Soviets...
...In other words, it is for economic reasons, arising out of its own definition of its national self-interest, that Saudi Arabia has exercised price "restraint...
...Just now, in an effort to calm the opposition, there is an effort underway to make only modest claims for the AWACS...
...Foreign purchasers pay not only for the equipment they get, but also for their "share" of its original development cost...
...the U.S...
...The Spanish Civil War provided both Germany and the Soviet Union a test of their equipment, at no cost in either German or Russian lives, and set a precedent for testing new systems with surrogate—and expendable—forces...
...Especially in 1967 and 1973, the Pentagon acquired important information regarding the performance of some of its more sophisticated hardware in actual battle...
...It is this assurance that the Reagan administration now proposed to violate...
...But Israel's right to buy the latest American military equipment is not matched by Israel's ability to pay for such equipment...
...If it is a direct Soviet attack that is to be guarded against, is it imagined that the Saudis' weapons will prevent such an attack...
...Not many weeks from now, Mitterand may abort the French sale of nuclear technology and materials to the Iraqis...
...He has been Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Jewish Agency for Israel for many years, and has held at least a dozen other senior leadership positions in national Jewish organizations...
...Or by American objection to the universally accepted code for controlling the sale of powdered milk in the Third World...
...In any case, the reporter's question remains...
...the one does not offset the other...
...Therein lies a cautionary tale...
...Well, the Soviets are eager to proceed with talks regarding arms reduction in Europe...
...Israel has no counter-system at the present time...
...The original included the following language: "We are...
...Nor would providing Israel with its own AWACS—which it cannot afford— diminish the usefulness of the Saudi AWACS...
...But Wolfe Blitzer, the distinguished Washington correspondent of the Jerusalem Post, reported that Fisher— normally a commanding presence— in fact read, in a barely audible voice, a statement in which "deeply" became "a little bit" and "opposed to" was dropped completely...
...The Sidewinder, for example, is an air-to-air missile, and the F-15, as configured under the terms of the current proposal, will be of limited value in air-to-ground combat...
...The F-15 enhancement package vastly increases the lethal capability of that aircraft, not only by extending its range and increasing its weaponry, but also by lowering— dramatically—the demands it makes on both pilots and ground crews...
...Perhaps...
...Even were the Saudis to undergo a massive change of heart, to refrain from monitoring Israeli aircraft and to turn their attention instead only to the Soviets and their client states, what is it they would accomplish...
...Should the Saudis request any or all of these—justified, no doubt, by the Iraqi threat, or the threat from South Yemen—and should the administration respond favorably, there would no doubt be considerable pressure to improve Israel's defensive capabilities at the same time...
...Among the elements that might be included in the compensation package were additional military aid, easier credit terms for the repayment of Israel's debt to the United States, increased American purchases from Israeli manufacturers of military equipment, agreement to permit Israel to sell military equipment requiring American licensing to certain other countries, and increased use of Israeli maintenance and repair facilities by American forces...
...The AWACS were not part of the original proposal, nor did the original proposal elicit much opposition either from Israel or from the American Jewish community...
...the others would provide comparable enhancements...
...So long as the PLO is funded by the Saudis, the PLO will not turn its radicalism against the anachronistic government that reigns in the desert...
...Fisher was a belated supporter of Reagan, and there are those who have speculated that his performance in the White House on March 9 was prompted by his desire to ingratiate himself with a president he had earlier opposed...
...Perhaps, in the future, we will remember that there is a reason we have a Conference of Presidents, and the reason is to insure that Jewish interests will be represented honestly and forthrightly by people who are mandated to represent those interests and who have no personal agenda with the President that might confuse their mission...
...This is certainly a proposition Israel's friends outside of the White House would like to believe...
...That was—and remains—the question...
...At the White House briefing, it was answered by Gordon Zachs, an active participant in national Jewish organizations and, during the early part of the campaign, an energetic supporter of then presidential candidate George Bush...
...On the contrary: Israel is the key element in Secretary Haig's persistent effort to fashion an anti-Soviet "strategic alliance" in the Middle East...
...his decision to provide these weapons to...
...That, starkly, is the proposal of the "best friend" Israel has ever had in the White House...
...For the Saudis, nothing matters so much as maintaining their special status— for without it, they become fair game for all the ferment that afflicts the other Arab nations...
...Must the United States view these acts of responsible statesmanship merely as opportunities for its merchandising of the worst America has to offer...
...The most startling example of this is the effect of adding the Sidewinder AIM-9L/M...
...A low-level balance might be somewhat more stable, but it would be considerably less profitable...
...Until the AWACS were added on...
...and HARM and other anti-radar missiles...
...The American Jewish community, taking its cue from Israel, and also sensitive to the problem of pressing an opposition that might well prove futile, chose relative silence on the matter...
...it also gives those who are alarmed by it a chance to enhance their understanding of the stakes here involved...
...At which point the F-15's own longrange radar can take over...
...Indeed, their desire to believe it led many of them to set aside their deepest convictions regarding American domestic policy and to support Ronald Reagan in his quest for the presidency...
...Unfortunately, the administration has reason to believe that only token opposition would be mounted against the F-15s alone...
...Js there not room here for linkage...
...That is why Secretary Haig has had such a hard time in recruiting for his "strategic consensus" in the Middle East...
...Sooner or later, Washington will have to decide which it prefers—an Israel that is solvent and secure, at the risk of a disappointed Saudi Arabia, or a bloated Saudi Arabia at the risk of an Israel destitute and desperate...
...The current proposal of the Reagan administration would cause such deterioration not to just one of these elements but to all three...
...would not find enough markets to sell its oil to meet its economic demands...
...Can the AWACS really fly for 72 hours without refueling...
...That economic motives can take precedence over other motives, even over anti-Soviet motives, is evidenced by the lifting of the Soviet grain embargo...
...The first of these would enable the Saudi F-15s to accurately attack ground targets in Israel from a distance of 50 miles...
...As Charles Krauthammer reminds us in The New Republic (May 9, 1981), one must listen not only to what the Saudis say when they appear, for example, on "Meet the Press...
...Air Force General John Vogt, "The AWACS determines a threat that-may be appearing...
...third, it must retain its capacity for surprise...
...Given the state of Saudi military capability, do not the AWACS in Saudi hands represent more a-temptation—to the Soviets, to the Israelis— than a deterrent...
...The most telling argument is provided by the precedent of Iran, to which the Carter administration had promised 14 AWACS—happily not delivered before the Iranian upheaval...
...Will it be easier the next time to say "no" to the Saudis...
...Given the amounts it has invested in Western economic institutions, it must also be sensitive to the health of those institutions, which can hardly absorb an endless stream of price increases...
...So we will sell them expensive things— cities and hospital's and AWACS...
...But in view of the fact that there is going to be a sale...
...7 KC-135 tankers for air refueling of both the F-15s and the AWACS...
...The postponement of the proposal's submission not only gives the administration the chance to modify it...
...specifically, it dramatically reduces the per-plane cost to the Pentagon...
...And it is worth fighting because we may win...
...That depends on which "black box...
...If we had our druthers we would prefer that there not be a sale...
...The Saudi effort is to balance its enormous need for cash, on the one hand, with its fear that the West will finally move to energy independence...
...But it was obvious that the issue would come up at the meeting, and in a pre-White House caucus, the group very carefully drafted the language of a statement on the matter that would be read to the President by Max Fisher...
...At that point, Israel was still quite reserved in its opposition, and there seemed no reason for American Jews to take a more vigorous stand in opposition than the Israelis had...
...Add to the near-monopoly of money a near-monopoly of information, and the Saudi status is doubly assured...
...But Ronald Reagan is not Jimmy Carter...
...Nor need we look very far to imagine what they might ask...
...Now, having permitted the OPEC cartel to wreak havoc on the world economy, it is because of oil—and money...
...Oil prices...
...The Saudis, thanks to OPEC, have our cash—and we want it back...
...The Saudis contend that without their restraint it would have risen more, and that is surely true—as it is true that with still greater restraint, it would not have risen as much as it did...
...In the first days of the Reagan administration, the particular problem was a modest rivalry between a group of prominent Jewish Republicans who had been actively involved in the Reagan election effort, and who believed themselves to be in the best position to represent Jewish interests to the administration—and who also, presumably, enjoyed the sense of power such relationships provide—and the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, the "official" spokesorganization for Jewish interests...
...While such a cynical doctrine may not serve as a motive for the sale of arms, it does help the cost-benefit analysts to justify it...
...between the President saying that he is committed to the security of Israel and...
...will not furnish such MERs...
...Saudia Arabia's army numbers about twice the size of New York City's police force...
...With the AWACS, Saudi Arabia can preserve for itself its unique stature and status in the Arab world: it can add to its role as banker of that world the new role of military mentor, guiding the planes and troops of others into the holy war it has proclaimed...
...But there are large areas of the world where the Soviet-American rivalry is a peripheral issue...
...Let the desert wars be fought on camelback...
...Can it "see," as has been claimed, any object "moving at more than 80 miles an hour within a 250 mile radius...
...If the Saudis permitted prices to rise too rapidly, that would "force the Western countries to invest large sums of money in alternate energy sources...
...The United States has an important economic interest in maintaining the Middle East arms balance at a high level...
...if it is too late for that, let them be fought with yesterday's leftover systems, not tomorrow's shining new ones...
...Now the administration, recognizing the vigor of the opposition to the proposal, has decided to defer its formal transmission to Congress until the late summer or early fall, so as not to divert attention from its domestic economic priorities...
...And it is this violation to which the Israelis, for all practical purposes, acceded, and that the American Jewish community grudgingly accepted...
...Israel's capacity to surprise the enemy, and thereby to carry the battle outside its own territory, is destroyed...
...That is the argument most of the congresspeople and editorial writers have used, and it is, good as far as it goes...
...it can fly 11 hours without and up to 72 hours with refueling...
...There is simply no way of both satisfying Saudi demands and keeping Israel safe, not unless this country chooses explicitly to redefine Israel as a proving ground for American weapons systems, and starts giving to Israel that for which it charges the Saudis top dollar...
...It is a mistake that is likely to cost both Israel and the United States dearly, unless we move to correct it...
...According to Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker, "Israel never had a better friend perhaps in the White House than it has with President Reagan...
...And later, at a remarkable White House briefing for reporters, Fisher said, "I sure feel a great deal more relieved after hearing the comments of President Reagan and some of his staff on the matter...
...But surely Ronald Reagan and his advisors wish Israel no ill...
...Why, then, such a pernicious proposal...
...that is what enables it to "see" low-flying aircraft...
...It is, of course, too soon to say what impact the election of Mitterand in France will have on the arms race in the Middle East, but there is at least some reason to hope that the new French President will be more judicious in his dispensing of advanced systems than his predecessor was...
...Saudi Arabia, with five AWACS, would be in a position to collect—and disseminate—complete information on the movements of all Israeli aircraft, day or night, good weather or bad...
...If it is plain that there must come an end to the madness, ought it not end now, before imposing so major a threat on Israel's safety, rather than the next time...
...In fact, it may be easier this time...
...As the continuing conflict in the Middle East so sharply demonstrates, other nations have their own views of what is more important, what less...
...The most obvious purpose of the AWACS in Saudi hands and under Saudi control is political rather than military, and is directed against Israel and not the Soviet Union...
...5 AW ACS...
...let us grant that his concern is genuine...
...Second: The Saudis claim that they are helping keep oil prices down, and imply that this policy of responsibility depends on American reciprocity...
...In the last thirty months, the price of oil has moved from $12 a barrel to $32 a barrel...
...But I was wrong...
...Fisher and Zachs, in the wake of the AWACS addition to the F-15 enhancement package, have both joined the Conference of Presidents in vocal opposition to the entire proposal...
...Can we be certain that Saudi Arabia's medieval monarchy will not collapse one day soon, its weapons taken over by a Saudi-style Kad-dafi...
...But while the two groups were still figuring out how to work together—back on March 9, specifically—32 prominent Jewish Republicans met with the President and his chief aides...
...And let those who argue that we cannot breach our contract to deliver all the F-15s we promised tell us how they justify the administration's breach of a no-less explicit contract with the Senate of the United States, and thereby with the American people, to the effect that the F-15s would remain unenhanced...
...Whatever his reasons, when the time came for Fisher to read the group statement, he changed its wording...
...Opposition mounted...
...We need not think the President dissembles when he avows his concern for Israel...
...The Saudis are an important element in the anti-Soviet strategy, and they must therefore be assured of American friendship, support and trust...
...Here is what Sheik Yamani had to say last February when he spoke at the University of Petroleum and Minerals in Dhahran: "The interest of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is that we extend the life of oil to the largest extent possible...
...It is worth fighting because it will cause the next Saudi request to be handled rather more cautiously...
...Much is made of the fact that the Saudis have interpreted American willingness to sell them the enhancement package and the AWACS as a "litmus test" of American sincerity...
...According to U.S...
...George Bernard Shaw most likely had it right when, in Major Barbara, he had Undershaft define the Armorer's Faith: "I will take an order from a good man as cheerfully as from a bad one...
...Israel's capacity to maintain a military edge sufficient to deter Arab aggression—or, if neccessary, to repel it—depends on three key elements: first, Israel must retain its technological superiority...
...So: In one critical respect, Israel's technological edge is severely blunted, the effectiveness of its air-force substantially degraded...
...For it is now clear: the soothing words of friendship are just that and no more...
Vol. 6 • June 1981 • No. 6
