Public Opinion in Israel

...Public reactions during what has come to be called the "Journey to Peace" have been continuously observed in Israel by means of the Continuing Survey of Social Problems, conducted since before the Six Day War (1967) by the Israel Institute of Social Research jointly with the Communications Institute of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem...

...This is especially clear in the public's assessment of the government's handling of "the general situation," where a pre-Sadat approval ("good" or "very good") of 55 percent rose to 81 percent after the Sadat visit, dropped back to 44 percent just before Camp David, moved back up to 66 percent after Camp David, was down to 44 percent again before the treaty-signing, rose to 54 percent after the signing, and then fell to 41 percent in the latest survey...

...The ups and downs of the process, as might be expected, have been mirrored in Israeli public opinion as well...

...The data reported here are based on surveys conducted between October 1977 and June 1979...

...will help Israel politically____60 — — 79 — 74 60 63___56__ 62 84_ Thinks U.S...

...During and after that war, the surveys were conducted weekly—and now essentially bi-weekly—with 500-600 cases in each sample...

...It appears that "hawks" approve the government's action even when that action is "dovish," and that "doves" endorse it even though it is sponsored by the Likud coalition...

...What they show quite dramatically is that with respect to private mood, public morale, support for the government and assessment of the prospects of peace, the time of most positive response was very early in the process, immediately after Sadat's visit to Jerusalem...

...These figures have remained high throughout the period, and are, apparently, not much affected by the dramatic events of the past two years...

...In brief, Sadat's visit was the climactic event of the period...

...is trying to impose a political solution that will force Israel to withdraw from all territories_81 — 69 71 — 57 75 81 76 71 74 Prospects for peace Trusts Sadat's declaration that he is interested in real peace____—_—_—_87_—_44___47___—___62^ 59 —_ Believes Egypt is interested in peace______________82 94 53 57 _55_______66______ 69 64 — Thinks that chances for peace with other Arab countries have increased_—_—_—_88_—_—_—_—_46_42_74 Palestinian Thinks a Palestinian State endangers the security of Israel — — — — — 92 — — — — — a Just before announcement of Sadat's visit to Jerusajem h Just before announcement of Carter's visit b After announcement of Sadat's visit but before actual visit i Just after announcement of Carter's visit c Immediately after Sadat's visit j Just after Carter's visit and announcement of agreement d Collapse of talks of Israel-Egypt Political Committee k Just before signing of agreement e Just before announcement of Camp David Conference I Just after signing of agreement f Just after announcement of invitation to Camp David m During Begin's visit in Cairo g A few days after Camp David Conference n Just before commencement of the Autonomy talks o Just after the commencement of the Autonomy talks Fied—including the evacuation of the Sinai settlements, endorsed by a 70 percent majority, as well as the cessation of settlement operations during negotiations, endorsed by 85 percent...

...The Camp David agreement was widely endorsed: 85 percent approved the government's handling of the negotiations, 75 percent believed that the advantages of the agreement outweighed its disadvantages, 78 percent believed that the Israeli concessions called for by the agreement were justiDynamics of public opinion, from Sadat's visit to Jerusalem through the commencement of the Autonomy talks (in percentages) 1977_ _1_978_ Sadat's visit Camp Events_to Jerusalem David_ a b c d e f g Oct Nov Nov Nov Jan Jan Feb Mar Jul Aug Sep _27-31 9-11 16-20 21-23 18-19 25-26 22-25 28-30 24-26 14-16 24-25 General Indicators Good mood most of the time_40 37 43 61 45 45 44 41__42___ 46 54_ Situation of Israel good or very good 22 24 44 55 31 30 __22____2J___23__ 25 44 Government's handling of general situation good or very good_55 62_75_81_62_66 48__50_ _ 46 44 66___ Government's handling of political situation good or very good_—_—_—_85_61_56_45_40_—_—_64 U.S.-lsrael relations Thinks U.S...

...By the time El Arish was returned and Sadat paid his second visit to Israel, in Beersheba, no impact on public opinion was discernable...

...The most likely explanations for this attrition of optimism are the difficulty of the negotiations, and the unprecedented nature of the Sadat visit, after which everything else seemed somewhat pallid by comparison...

...And only half the public (52 percent) believes, as of the last surveys, that Tsiyona Peled is Senior Research Associate at the Israel Institute of Applied Social Research, Jerusalem...

...About half the public fear that a Palestinian state might ultimately result from the agreement, although a large majority (82 percent) do not feel that the agreement raises the risk of Israel's loss of sovereignty over Jerusalem...

...Since that time, there has been a reversion to pre-Sadat attitudes in several key areas, interrupted only by fleeting peaks— none so high as the first—just after Camp David and then again when the treaty was signed...

...There is considerable expectation of continuing American political support for Israel, despite an equivalent expectation that America will seek to impose a solution involving Israeli withdrawal from the territories and the creation of a Palestinian state...

...Most encouraging—and perhaps not without political consequence as well—is the fact that two-thirds of all Israelis believe that the anticipated people-to-people contacts will ease and enhance the peace process...

...In general, assessment of Egyptian intentions is now positive: 64 percent trust Sadat's sincerity, and 60 percent believe that there may be real normalization and real peace between Egypt and Israel within a year...

...The public's perception of American intentions has remained relatively stable throughout the period, and indicates a curious ambivalence...

...Prior to the Yom Kippur War (1973), three surveys were conducted each year, with samples of over 2,000 cases each...

...Much has happened during those two years: the announcement of the visit, the visit itself, the abortive first round of talks between Egypt and Israel, the Camp David meeting and the euphoria which followed it, the letdown when Camp David did not produce the results that had been promised in the time that had been anticipated, the Carter visit to the Middle East and, at long last, the peace treaty itself...

...Egypt will uphold its commitment to restrict the conflict between the two states to the political arena alone...

...As a result, Israeli public opinion emerges as a moving picture, rather than as a snapshot taken at a fixed point in time...

...1979 _ Carter's visit Signing Begin's to Jerusalem of the visit to Autonomy and Cairo Agreement Cairo talks h i j k I m n o Oct Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr May June 30-31 6-8 20-25 6-11 13-18 20-22 28-29 1-3 27-29 10-12 46 46 46 44 48 41 47 54 43 39_ 30_\6____13 18 27 24 39 39 28___27 53_29 24 34 43 43 51 43 30 3J___ 57 32 34 — 44 44 54 53 40 41 69 62 61 64 84 79 84 81 — — 60 66 65 — 64 69 65 72 —__— 80 — — 87 76 81 78 79 — — 74 42 48 — 58 — 71 75 64___—____ 75 50 53 63 67 — — — 73__— — — — — 44 — — 39 — — 87 92 89 — 89 — 88 — — 86...

...On occasion, cross sections of the Jewish population of small towns and cities have also been studied...

...Similarly, assessments of "Israel's situation" as "good" or "very good" ranged all the way from 22 percent before announcement of the Sadat visit to 55 percent just after, plummeted to 13 percent in the period between Camp David and Carter's visit to the Middle East, rose to 39 percent after the treaty was signed and, in the most recent survey, dropped back to 27 percent...

...this provides one of the most detailed and systematic studies of public opinion anywhere in the world...

...the results of these efforts show that in relation to the issues discussed here, there is little variation between urban and rural populations...

...Instead, they arise out of a long-lasting and deeply-rooted fear that the real Arab aim is not the return of the territories, but the destruction of Israel...

...At the same time, despite misgivings about specific potential consequences of the treaty, despite continuing opposition to a Palestinian state, despite continuing skepticism regarding the prospect of a comprehensive settlement, the public endorses the treaty...

...Altogether, about 135,000 interviews have now been conducted within the framework of the Continuing Survey...

...The people surveyed have been Jewish adults residing in Israel's larger cities (Jerusalem, greater Tel Aviv, greater Haifa and Beersheba), through systematic surveys in their homes...

...Nor is there great optimism regarding the prospect of a comprehensive peace settlement in the region: whereas 88 percent of the public believed, immediately after the Sadat visit, that chances for such a general peace had improved, that figure has now declined to just 39 percent...

...We find that a majority of Israelis (74 percent) are willing to establish friendly relations with Egyptians, although there is some hesitation in endorsing close social contacts...

...The most recent survey assesses the readiness of Israelis for such encounters...

...it was as if such events are entirely routine...

...Its impact on personal mood and public hope was striking...

...nothing that has happened since has restored the general sense of optimism to the levels it reached at that time...

...Nonetheless, these high hopes were mingled with concern that the evacuation of the Sinai settlements will serve as a precedent for the Jordan valley and the Golan settlements (60 percent and 40 percent respectively so believe...

...Those who profess such a belief included 94 percent of the population just after the Sadat visit, a figure which dropped to just 50 percent between Camp David and the Carter visit, and which now stands at 73 percent...

...And it is worth noting that this endorsement crosses party lines...

...And more continues to happen, as the various clauses of the treaty are implemented, as additional negotiations called for by the treaty take place...

...In the months ahead, as the negotiations continue, we will also be witness to the first people-to-people encounters between Egyptians and Israelis...

...The most commanding consensus, and the most stable, occurs around the question of a Palestinian state...

...Fifty-five percent of the Israelis are willing to host Egyptian visitors in their homes, and 45 percent (of those planning to visit Egypt next year) are willing to accept home hospitality from Egyptians...

...In fact, ever since the introduction of the Rogers Plan, the prevalent opinion in Israel has opposed return to the 1967 borders, even in the face of severe American pressure, and has held to the belief that the return of the territories will not in itself bring peace...

...The volatility of public opinion is also evident in the public's readiness to believe that Egypt is ready to make real peace with Israel...

...Eighty-six percent believe that such a state would constitute a danger to Israel's security, and 88 percent oppose the idea of establishing such a state...

...encourages the establishment of a Palestinian State______73 — 60 61 — 27 — —___ 46 37 41 Thinks U.S...

...Yet these figures, as the studies over time show, are also susceptible to dramatic shifts...