Carter, Israel, and the Jews

...The most common argument is that such a state would necessarily be governed by the PLO, which would surely see it merely as a staging ground for its ultimate aim, the elimination of Israel...

...Were they to do so, it is reasonable to assume that they would require the Palestinians to reject association with the Soviet Union and to be satisfied with a level of military expenditure adequate to sustain a constabulary rather than an army...

...The issues—life and death issues—require that we be prepared to say not only what we are against, but also what we are for...

...so do sheep...

...Even the American government appears committed to a policy which would connect the proposed Palestinian entity to Jordan and which might permit a continuing Israeli military presence within its boundaries...

...Civil war in Palestine/Jordan, managed by radical Palestinians and leading, inevitably, to the radicalization of almost all Palestinians, would almost surely lead to Syrian intervention, either on the side of the Palestinians if they appeared to be losing, or as a dominant imperial neighbor after the Palestinians had won...

...But for us, it is as much a mistake to see danger where there is genuine opportunity as it would be to nurture hope where there is only threat...

...We loathe war, we detest terrorism, the chronic crisis debilitates us—but we know no other way...

...it is, let us remind ourselves, a thoroughly unacceptable world...

...Its risks may well outweigh its advantages, but the exercise of identifying risks and advantages with some precision is always useful, since it helps to clarify the kinds of considerations which bear on Israel's safety...

...Such disagreement is not necessarily a bad thing...

...A more extreme rendering has it that everybody hates the Jews, but that is only suspected, not believed, by most people who accept the more moderate version...

...It will no longer do for us merely to exercise a veto over American foreign policy, even if we think ourselves able to...

...I recognize, of course, the strength of the Jewish communal consensus on this matter, and I therefore come to the position I take with some hesitation...

...In short, the Administration has botched the job...

...Yet there are dangers here...

...Our interest in Israel did not begin last January 20, or even in 1973...

...In its favor, there is this: three major countries of the region would share a powerful community of interest in containing Palestinian radicalism...

...That line is an axiom, four words long, with which we choose to interpret the world when it seems to us a problematic place...

...In principle, there is no reason that such assurances could not be negotiated along with the basic settlement itself...

...Israel, clearly unable to accept such a development, would itself be bound to intervene...

...Superficially, the amenities are still observed, but there is no longer any hiding from the reality of confrontation...

...Thust references to the Director of the National Security Council as "that Polish anti-Semite" have become disgustingly commonplace of late...

...they reflect malignant misanthropy, and they have no place in our discourse, public or private...

...The Administration evidently believes that it must first, through whatever ploys it has available, get the parties into the same room, for unless they come to that room, nothing will happen—which means that war will happen...

...Or do we no longer believe the things we profess, have we ourselves come to believe that our description of Israel is merely propaganda...

...Fear for Israel's safety has been our companion for thirty years now, and the recent abandonment of Israel by the nations of the world has left us sullen and suspicious, more concerned than ever about the limited issue of security...

...There is a central thread, and it would be a terrible error to assume that the Administration does not know what it is doing...

...And American Jews, who for the most part accepted the second before Israel's elections, now appear to prefer the first, reserving judgement on the acceptability of the second until they see what its terms are and how Israel reacts...

...I conclude with some comments regarding the dangers inherent in that response...

...Israel should not want, and could not get away with, South African-style behavior...

...The American Jewish community is far less prepared to deal with the Palestinian question than is Israel, where, for the last several years, the problem of the Palestinians has been acknowledged as central to the Arab-Israel dispute...

...It is widely seen—quite likely precisely because of its vagueness—as offering the best hope for a settlement...

...The American official who said that is Dr...

...Jordan, for reasons made clear earlier, would be at least as committed as Israel to a policy of containment...

...But the Jewish community, for all that we pray for peace, for all that we yearn for peace, has long since ceased to believe in peace...

...The central actors in the drama have invested most of their energy in discussion of this middle alternative...

...But unity because we fear dissent...

...Accordingly, the preeminent political purpose of the Saudis is to insure stability to their north...

...This will almost surely lead to bitter disappointment once those interests are announced in public and the distance between them becomes apparent...

...The American commitment to Israel is, as one very senior American official said a few weeks ago, "unshakable...

...If we reject the American initiative, let us say what world it is we would prefer, and how we might begin to build it...

...Not so in the case of Jordan, the West Bank and the Palestinians...

...In a recent Harris poll, 60 percent of the Jews gave Mr...

...Nor is there any comfort in seeking to avoid choice, to let inertia guide behavior...

...It is the fear that Mr...

...Nor can Israel's friends, were they so disposed, contemplate such a prospect with equanimity, satisfied that Arabs would be killing one another rather than warring against Jews...

...But because it lurks in the background of fear which surrounds the current debate, it deserves at least brief consideration...

...We pray for peace, we yearn for peace, but we have long since ceased to believe in peace...

...Carter has suggested that he prefers the second alternative, but it is clear that American Jews fear he may in fact be indifferent as between the second and the third—an autonomous Palestinian state...

...But it is not enough to say "let Geneva be convened, and then we will see what comes next...

...The community has been uncommonly vigorous, and by now, the Administration must surely realize that the Jewish response has not been engineered or manipulated, that it is as close to an authentic groundswell as we have seen in recent years...

...The Palestinians prefer the third, and when anyone reports that they might be ready to live with the second the report is dismissed as a tactical ploy...

...If they are, negotiations can proceed...

...Now, of course, Mr...

...so also, in an interview with C. L. Sulzberger of The New York Times, has Dr...

...Given the skepticism with which any vaguely defined settlement is viewed by people who are concerned with the details of that settlement, and by people who are too wise to be placated with general reassurances, and given further the political misjudgment of the Administration in the course of revealing its approach to a Middle East settlement, the reaction of the American Jewish community is not particularly surprising...

...Our current response to the Carter policy meets neither of these tests...

...We see Geneva through the haze of that addiction, and we see it not as an oasis, but as a mirage...

...We know what will come next...

...That is why many Israelis, including most of the leadership of the Labor Party, and some American Jews, reject the possibility, such as it is, of Israeli retention of the territories as anything more than a bargaining device...

...But it is clear that the American government believes that Israel may in fact prefer the first...

...And, more important and quite ignored in most discussions of the matter, Saudi Arabia, the new power in the Middle East and the new silent partner to any settlement in the region, would share an equivalent concern...

...Further, it is time that we recognize and learn to deal with the obvious: those who care for Israel will disagree about what is best for Israel, just as the Israelis themselves do...

...It makes the unity of Israel's advocates all the more impressive when that unity does emerge—as, on the genuinely fundamental questions, it has and will...

...Dayan and Mr...

...And if, therefore, we reject the American initiative to shape a better world, we are duty-bound to insure that our rejection is for cause, and not the product of instinctive suspicion...

...Some see this as the best Israel is likely to get...

...Vance and others, are paying the price for their early effort to slip this one in while no one was looking...

...A de jure award of Palestine to Jordan would most likely result in a de facto award of Jordan to Palestine...

...Carter claim, become more moderate of late, but there is a simple test of their alleged moderation: either they are prepared to contemplate a comprehensive peace with Israel, or they are not...

...For all that I may disagree with the Jewish consensus regarding what we see and what we hear, it is a signal achievement of this generation of Jews that it will not be caught off guard...

...Nor has the manner in which the Administration has revealed its Middle East policy relieved the suspicion...

...I believe instead that Israel's achievements and its significance have impressed themselves on the minds and hearts of people of decency in many nations, that Israel has legions of friends, and that some of these hold high positions in the American government...

...He might be tempted to throw up his hands in frustration, write off the support of the Jews, and go on with his job, not because he wants to be vindictive, but because he does not want to waste his time trying to persuade people who are not persuadable, to bargain with people who wont be bargained with...

...They have no place not only because they are impolitic, but also because they are untrue...

...for all practical purposes, the Jewish community has written off the Carter Administration...

...If, in developing its Middle East policy, the only thing that keeps the United States tied to Israel is domestic political pressure (I do not believe it is, but many people do), then what happens when the Administration decides that nothing it can do will relieve the pressure...

...It is an invitation to public confusion...

...The Middle East crisis is part of our life, it is as familiar as it is ugly, it has become our addiction...

...Nobody loves the Jews...

...Peace is its central goal, a peace that will insure Israel's safety, and it is useful in the pursuit of that goal to examine the implications of each available alternative independent of how the parties themselves view those alternatives...

...I do not share that view...

...My purpose in so doing is not to propose a solution, but to suggest how Israel's friends might easily come to disagree about the kind of solution that would best serve Israel's interests...

...The risks of an automonous Palestinian state are obvious...

...This raises problems both for the President and for us...

...Generally, Jews both in this country and in Israel are more anxious than they are hopeful, since they remember quite well that the Arabs controlled all the disputed territory between 1949 and 1967, and in all that time never thought to create the Palestinian entity—much less the Palestinian state—they now endorse...

...With such strong arguments against it, and with such widespread agreement to those arguments among Israel's friends, it might seem pointless to examine the autonomous state alternative...

...LEONARD FEIN CARTER, ISRAEL, AND THE JEWS If the President and his advisors want us to believe in the decency of their intention and the wisdom of their behavior, they must begin by understanding the depth of our fear...

...That is the most likely next stage, and if that happens, what we are seeing now is only a rehearsal for the real confrontation that will come in just a few months...

...others are moved as well by what they see as the justice of the Palestinian desire for self-determination...

...In short, if one is in search of a solution in whose stability and durability the largest possible number of actors have a stake, the autonomous state alternative is not unattractive...

...American Jewish Response As I have said, there is much to admire in the Jewish response to the events of the past several months...

...Unity because those who proclaim it think that only those who respond to their call are concerned with Israel's welfare and committed to her safety...

...It is also commonly proposed that Israel have a continuing military presence in the "entity...

...At the other extreme, some (negotiated) part of the territory known as the West Bank and the Gaza Strip might be handed over to the Palestinians as a location for an autonomous Palestinian state...

...There are those who contend that the Administration s ambiguity reflects muddled thinking, a policy that was less planned than simply stumbled onto...

...Dayan's inventiveness will be put to its most severe test, as he seeks to craft a solution that satisfies Israel's vital interests and, at the same time, is likely to endure...

...According to Terence Smith of the New York Times, the current breach between President Carter and the American Jewish community is "deeper and more serious...

...I do not know whether Egypt and Syria have, as both Mr...

...The whole thing appears sneaky, and belated Administration efforts to speak more coherently to the Middle East problem are evidence of how wide a gap had been allowed to develop during the months of policy-by-ambiguity...

...Lipshutz and Mr...

...The very ambiguity of the second alternative invites suspicion...

...Yet a combination of circumstances has led any number of Israel's friends to endorse some form of Israeli withdrawal from the territories and the creation, in the West Bank and Gaza, of a Palestinian entity—although not a Palestinian state...

...The issue of Palestine was never part of American foreign policy statements on the Middle East, nor of the President's statements during his candidacy for national office...

...I do not believe that...

...But the case is not persuasive...

...Not only the Likud, but all of Israel's major parties, have rejected it...

...Zbigniew Brzezinski...

...More important, one cannot retain the territory without retaining that which the territory contains...

...The ties that bind us to Israel are not just the political ties...

...In any case, it is evident that the bilateral dispute between Israel and each of its Arab neighbor states—with the exception of Jordan—is limited, can be defined with some precision, can—at least theoretically—be resolved without prejudicing the vital interests of the parties...

...If they are not, no one will condemn Israel for walking away from the table...

...And that is best achieved by the creation of a Palestinian state which is hemmed in on all sides by nations with a shared interest in keeping it hemmed in, and by a level of economic aid which would help overcome the serious problems such a state would otherwise face...

...A policy which concentrates on the achievement of a peace settlement raises risks to Israel's security, just as a policy which is exclusively preoccupied with Israel's security must, under present circumstances, weaken the prospect of peace...

...I first examine the substantive issues which are at the heart of the Middle East conflict today...

...So the President has said...

...Israeli Retention of the Territories Let us suppose, for a moment, that the world were suddenly converted en masse to the Gush Emunim view, were to acknowledge Israel's historic entitlement to the entire territory between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River...

...Potent radicalism is a more serious threat to the Saudis than to any other state in the region, and the Saudis know it...

...Its vagueness arouses hope, but also arouses anxiety...

...Hypothetical ly, there are two fairly clear extreme choices, and one rather vague middle ground...

...There are obvious and important security reasons to prefer this alternative...

...It is not enough to say ' 'let Geneva be convened, and then we will see what comes next...

...Surely we can imagine something richer than more of the corrosive same...

...No prospect frightens them more than the emergence of an imperial Greater Syria, a Syria in substantial control of Jordan, Lebanon—and Palestine...

...That unfortunate trade-off is the legacy of decades of violence, and there is no way around it...

...A Palestinian Entity Little can be said about the middle option, since it is still so vague...

...Whatever the motives for accepting the middle ground, those of Israel's friends who do are deeply concerned with the risks, and devote most of their attention to the development of proposals which will reduce those risks...

...its risks are not less grave...

...What are the choices...

...This way, he has the outrage, and a loss of personal credibility as well...

...An Autonomous Palestinian State This is, of course, the one alternative which is announced anathema so far as Israel is concerned...

...We cannot afford to be mistaken...

...By and large, they have concentrated their attention—and ours—on the second alternative...

...they are not economic ties...

...Why should that surprise us...

...That is by no means an "easy" issue, but we should, in passing, note the degree to which traditional issues, such as the Egyptian-Israeli dispute, and even, in some measure, the Syrian-Israeli dispute, have been reduced to manageable proportions...

...Such a Syria would—so the Saudis believe—not stop at the Saudi Arabian northern border, the border it shares with Jordan...

...Had he originally chosen to announce the shift in American policy in a major address rather than to signal it in a series of hints, he would have invited an immediate reaction of outrage...

...That, too, is a choice...

...It can be argued that the response has been impolitic, and may—if it has not already— prove counter-productive...

...We cannot afford to be mistaken...

...A de jure award of Palestine to Jordan would most likely result in a de facto award of Jordan to Palestine...

...If the territories were to be made part of Israel, Israel would then face a terrible decision regarding what to do with those million people...

...than any in recent memory...

...Unity because there is only one right answer...

...If the President and his advisors want us to believe in the decency of their intention and the wisdom of their behavior, they must begin by understanding the depth of our fear...

...Accordingly, while we go through the motions of debating the wisdom of America's Middle East policy in public, we know, privately, the terrible truth: scratch, and ye shall find an anti-Semite...

...If it were to refuse them citizenship, there would be worldwide revulsion...

...Withal, one can sympathize with the President's dilemma...

...In the Jewish view, the President and his people have abandoned Israel...

...One may agree or disagree that the issue had been unreasonably neglected, but one cannot accept that when it has finally been decided to confront the issue, the confrontation is so peculiarly managed...

...Why then so intense and so hostile a reaction from American Jews...

...Hence, basing their position exclusively on a consideration of Israel's self-interest, they look to other possibilities for a solution...

...Palestinians already outnumber Bedouin in Jordan itself...

...The Middle East crisis has become our addiction...

...Agree with it or disagree with it, but do not dismiss it as an accident...

...But if there is merit to the argument I propose, then—not for Mr...

...Indeed, in 1967 they made war against Israel because they were not satisfied with what they then had—and since what they had then is more than they are now likely to get, why should one believe that today's half-loaf will satisfy them...

...If Geneva happens, it will be because all of the parties will have been persuaded, or coaxed into behaving as if they had been persuaded that the second alternative, what I have called the middle ground, provides room for constructive negotiating...

...Such statements, of which this is only the most noxious, do not reflect healthy skepticism, or even sickly cynicism...

...And the description of the media is confirmed over and over by personal impression...

...Finally, such a state would not be economically viable...

...There are several possible explanations...

...Often, this vague alternative is coupled with talk of a Jordanian connection, by which it is intended that the "entity" will be tied, politically, to Jordan...

...Indeed, I can think of no analogy to the almost haphazard way in which the President and his associates have, since the President's speech in Clinton, sought to inform us all of a major shift in American policy through the device of the subordinate clause...

...For all practical purposes, the Jewish community has written off the Carter Administration...

...If it were to give them citizenship in Israel, there would be an Arab majority in the country within a decade or two...

...they are deeply binding moral ties...

...Carter might be able to live with it, or that, inadvertently, the notion of "entity" will slide into the fact of autonomy, that has so exercised American Jews...

...Carter a negative rating...

...And the territory contains over one million Arabs...

...That kind of unity is not a resource...

...American Jews are increasingly described as "upset" and "alarmed," suspicious of the President's motives, hostile to Dr...

...They are not the victims of pro-Israel propaganda...

...It would be bound to invite Palestinian refugees to come "home," but if they did, its population would vastly outstrip the available resources...

...Would this be desirable from Israel's perspective...

...Even Israel's friends, Jews and non-Jews, may misjudge Israel's interests, friendship does not mean infallibility But if the development of an American Middle East policy proceeds from the perception that the ties that bind the United States and Israel are "deeply binding moral ties," then the policy deserves a careful hearing...

...For our purpose, however, Geneva is not the central goal of the process...

...The Adminstration deserves that much, nor will the American people be persuaded to favor the "Jewish position" over the "Administration position" where the two are in conflict if they are in conflict at every step along the way, if we come to be seen as temperamental obstructionists...

...And the pressure will come from the United States, and will be applied against Israel...

...Carter's sake, but for Israel's—a correction in our present confrontationist trajectory is required...

...Between these two choices, there is a middle ground in which words such as "entity" are employed to describe a level of Palestinian self-determination that is something less than full political autonomy, but is more than what they now have...

...Indeed, the wish of most Jews, both in Israel and in the United States, is that the current turmoil will somehow pass, today's status quo be accepted as normal...

...There is another and still more worrisome aspect to the present political posture of the Jews...

...Jody Powell says that "this could be the biggest, most sensitive problem we face in 1980...

...The occasional confusion between the Palestinians and the PLO, the misreferences to critical UN resolutions, the apparent inadvertencies of one day which required justification the next and became policy on the third—with all of that, a case can be made for policy-by-accident...

...The Administration must by now realize that those of us who care about Israel area/ways looking, always listening...

...the incorporation of a large additional Palestinian population into the Jordanian body politic would create an intolerable demographic problem for Hussein...

...Even after a series of meetings between Jews and representatives of the Administration—including the President himself—in late October and early November, the mood remained ugly...

...At one extreme, Israel might elect to do nothing, which means, of course, to retain full control over the territory between its pre-1967 borders and the Jordan River...

...they are not security ties...

...While any settlement will involve some measure of risk, a "good" settlement can be imagined in which everyone emerges a winner...

...The Administration must by now realize that those of us who care about Israel are always looking, always listening...

...they are sensible and thoughtful men and women with a feeling for history and an eye for truth...

...The Saudis are, of course, in a remarkable position to provide such aid...

...That is not an invitation to public debate, as Mr...

...We do not mean to be unreasonable, but we would rather be unreasonable than naive...

...Moreover, every imaginable course of action regarding the Palestinian question is dangerous, every choice is a bad choice, every option carries with it risks most grave...

...Accordingly, the effort to have Geneva happen has focused on that which is inherently most ambiguous, hence most susceptible to the particular interpretation each of the parties prefers...

...I then propose two different kinds of explanations for the American Jewish response to the Administration's efforts...

...Arguing exclusively from the standpoint of Israel's safety, I think one can come to a very different and considerably more encouraging conclusion regarding the current American peace-making effort...

...The likely result would be civil war within the enlarged Jordan...

...The Carter Administration, for example, has made it clear that it will not accept the first alternative, continuing Israeli control over the territories...

...It is possible, of course, that some other solution can be proposed, within the general framework of the second alternative, that will not be quite so barren of promise...

...Perfect predictability means political impotence...

...Some of the Jewish reaction has been thoughtful and considered...

...Under such circumstances, whatever the present intentions of its leadership, it would soon be compelled to consider war against Israel...

...If the pressure is applied unselectively and unremittingly, if it includes elements of personal offense, if it appears more a product of historic Jewish fear and trembling than of legitimate current concern, how can any politician react to it...

...At worst, it simply does not know how to do what it wants to do, but it almost certainly knows, and knows very well, what it wants to do...

...Beyond politics, however, there is substance...

...Sound political strategy suggests the importance of more judicious behavior...

...As with any possible settlement, the "secondary" arrangements, including especially security guarantees and arms controls, are at least as critical as the boundaries...

...It is deeply ingrained in the fabric of our own society...

...first it becomes a bore, then a threat to the very ends it seeks...

...Is it really the present sterile and debilitating status quo that we are for...

...it goes back a long, long time, and it goes forward far beyond the lifespan of this Administration...

...We cannot afford to slay sheep and wolf alike in an indiscriminate slaughter, not unless we have been reduced to believing that we stand entirely alone...

...Brzezinski...

...It is not hard to see why...

...Carter's pledge to conduct an open presidency would, at least, have been honored...

...The pre-1967 boundaries were intolerable, and, religious arguments aside, many thoughtful Israelis are appalled at the prospect of returning to those boundaries...

...This is not the best of all possible worlds that we have...

...The political difficulties have attracted relatively little attention, yet they are even more unsettling...

...The Arab states reject the first, say that they prefer the third, but may in fact prefer the second...

...But it is as much a mistake to see danger where there is genuine opportunity as it would be to nurture hope where there is only threat...

...But with such a speech, Mr...

...Accordingly, the second alternative presents the very real risk of continuing instability along the full length of Israel's eastern border...

...Further, such a state would almost surely be armed by the Soviet Union, thus inviting a destabilizing and significant Soviet presence in the region...

...But that does not mean that the job is not worth undertaking...

...Brzezinski's efforts...

...What will come next is intense pressure to keep Geneva happening...

...Wolves can wear sheep's clothing, and sometimes do...

...The attitudes of the actors towards the several alternatives are, however, of considerable interest...

...It is the most natural response to the reality of Israel...

...But the spontaneity of much of it, genuine though it has been, has also involved elements that might easily lead to the tragic impasse I have described...

...The intensity of that reaction has been further abetted by the strange episode of the joint Soviet-American statement, for which no adequate explanation has yet been offered, and also by announcement of the American view regarding who has what kinds of rights in the region, an announcement which is bound to make the negotiating process more difficult, since it will encourage the Arabs to adopt the American view as the least they can expect to come away with...

...Geneva, if it happens, will be organized around the second alternative, an alternative whose vagueness permits each of the disputants to justify its presence at the negotiating table by interpreting the ambiguity to suit its own interests...

...Carter sometimes suggests...

...THE ISSUES Nothing is ever quite so simple as it seems, but the Middle East dispute has become simpler, rather than more complex, in recent months...

...For all practical purposes, the dispute boils down to one item: the fate of the Palestinians, and of the territory which they claim...

...The sometime crudeness of our reaction, as well as our persistence in hearing only the threat in the Administration's position, and not its promise, suggest that in this time of terrible uncertainty, we have repaired to our traditional line of defense...

...It is here that Mr...

...We know what will come next...

...Any discussion of peace in the Middle East is a discussion not only of peace, but also of security...

...Carter, and also Mr...

...I cannot think of anything stronger than that...

...In addition to its haphazard history, Administration policy generates a nervous response from Jews, as well as from other observers of these matters, because it can fairly be argued that the very policy which may make Geneva more likely to happen may also make Geneva less likely to succeed...

...AMERICAN POLICY Publicly, at least, and for the time being, at least, American policy makers have not raised the possibility of an autonomous Palestinian state...

...Critics of this direction—it is still too vague to be called a "proposal"—point to the inherent instability of a prolonged Israeli military presence in an essentially Arab area...

...Israel's government has made it clear that it will not accept the third, and has announced, in general terms, its acceptance of the second...

...In their view, the demographic problems associated with retention outweigh the security advantages...

...That is a self-destructive axiom, for it insures not only what we hope to insure, that we will not be taken in by our enemies, but also what we can least afford to insure, that we will alienate such friends as we have...

...Here there will be both winning and losing for everyone, and the degree of loss which each side is asked to swallow is absolutely critical to the process...

...It is, however, clear that the present situation will not be accepted for very long, not by any number of states whose reaction Israel cannot wholly ignore...