WHAT NEXT IN THE MIDDLE EAST?
Safran, Nadav
WHAT NEXT IN THE MIDDLE EAST? Nadav Safran The successful conclusion of the latest round of step-by-step negotiations in the Middle East creates at last a possibility of durable peace in that...
...Within this complex context, the Middle East is of crucial importance...
...satisfactory application of the agreements with Syria and the Palestinians (or, at least, non-involvement by Egypt in possible disputes...
...The Secretary's successes have given rise to a belief in some quarters that Arab-Israel peace might be advanced by a step - by - step approach, rather than by a direct attack on the problem in all its complexity...
...Among the answers suggested, two alternatives to a mutual defense pact have been most frequently mentioned, but neither is as good...
...Such a development would, in his view, only extend to the Middle East the kind of division into camps that effectively stabilized the situation in Europe, until forces emerged that gradually reached out across the lines for greater mutual toleration, exchanges, and understanding...
...In addition, Israel deserves attention because of its place in Jewish history, because of the Jewish contribution to the Western heritage, and because of the profound bonds between Israel and America's Jewish citizens...
...Israel and Jordan With regard to Jordan, the agreement would confirm the present cease-fire lines as final boundaries and would include provisions concerning free port rights, open bridges, freezing and then reduction of armament levels, and so on...
...Stage 2: When the preceding conditions have been fulfilled, the Israelis pull back to a line comprising essentially Sharm el Sheikh and a road linking it to Israel...
...It mortgages the future to the present, perverting the logic of the approach...
...full-fledged diplomatic relations...
...The Palestinian question would be dealt with initially in all three committees with a view to achieving an "agreement on basic principles" only...
...In other words, polarization in the Middle East may well prove less stable than it did in Europe because of the combination of a persistent Arab-Israeli conflict and a continuing ambiguity, real or perceived by the other side, as to whether the American commitment to Israel would be operative if something less than Israel's survival appears to be at stake...
...Instead of a succession of steps, each one bringing the parties closer to a final settlement, we have a series of crises, each making the next more severe...
...1948-1967, published by Pegasus Press...
...Stage 3: When all this will have taken place, Israel pulls back to the mandatory borders...
...If failure is inevitable, better to fail in pursuit of an ambitious goal...
...Until the conclusion of the Israeli-Syrian agreement, Secretary Kissinger practiced the step-by-step approach in masterly fashion...
...An integral annex regulates the conditions of the Israeli evacuation...
...III...
...Both these temptations should be resisted...
...Nadav Safran is a Professor of Government at Harvard University...
...Israel and Syria With regard to Syria, the pattern of the settlement to aim at would be basically similar, with some local modifications...
...The American-Israeli treaty, in the context in which it is here proposed, would dramatically reduce rather than increase the chances of our becoming involved in another Arab-Israeli explosion, because it is a treaty designed to help terminate Arab-Israeli antagonism and hostility...
...Eventually, after a Palestinian interlocutor is formed, the Palestinian question would be settled by negotiations between that interlocutor and Israel and Jordan...
...second, time, in order to insure that these provisions are fully respected...
...The proposed agreements would be worked out one by one, but simultaneously...
...The operative clause of the envisaged treaty would be modeled after the key clause in the American - Japanese treaty, which says, in effect, that the two parties would view an attack on either in the area under Japanese control as an attack on both, and would act to meet the attack in accordance with their constitutional processes...
...A mutual security pact as I envisage it would involve American-Israeli cooperation on an ongoing basis...
...Finally, a guarantee that is to come into effect suddenly, in time of trouble, at some future date, under unforeseen circumstances, is not very credible in any situation, and least of all in the conditions in which Israel would find itself...
...the arab-israeli confrontation...
...Finally, even under the best of circumstances, Ullman's proposal is likely to leave the Arab-Israeli conflict unsettled for a very long time...
...First, all outside powers now agree that a comprehensive resolution is necessary, and that creates new diplomatic opportunities in which many outside powers, including Europe and the Soviet Union, might be willing to participate...
...I. American Interests The supreme national interest of the United States is the preservation of its free way of life...
...movement of men and goods on a non-discriminatory basis between the parties...
...With prior agreement on essentials between Egypt and Israel already secured, the Egyptian-Israeli committee would be apt to progress rapidly, and put pressure on the Syrian-Israeli committee...
...This stage lasts for seven years, during which the following conditions must prevail before the next stage comes into effect: absence of shooting, infiltration, and hostile propaganda...
...2. That procedure would consist of (a ) returning the territories and meeting the Palestinian question in stages, conditional upon the Arab side's moving in stages towards real peace (seep.31), and (b ) an American security treaty that would come into effect after the peace agreements between Israel and Egypt, Jordan and Syria had been concluded...
...But the belief that "nibbling" away at the problems is the best approach to peace was justifiable only in limited conditions, and those conditions have been neither sufficiently recognized nor respected...
...The question is what kind of security assurance is apt to accomplish that objective...
...Second, the net effect of the last three wars has made a resolution seem possible to the participants themselves...
...First, the record shows quite clearly that past efforts to find ways to "live with the conflict" have been no more successful than attempts to resolve it...
...such a hope were to prove right, the point of the American-Israeli treaty will have been lost and, in addition, American-Israeli relations would be heavily strained...
...My point of departure for the argument is the national interest of the United States...
...Judging by the behavior of America's European allies in the 1973 crisis and by the tendency manifested by several of them recently (e.g., Greece and Turkey) to pursue their particular interests to the detriment of the collective interests of the alliance, NATO might not survive the strains...
...Because of the apparent intractability of the conflict, American policy-makers may be tempted to conclude that their best chance is to try merely to contain or stabilize it, rather than to continue the futile pursuit of peace...
...One such proposal, advanced by Richard Ullman, would have the United States conclude a security treaty with Israel and back up such a pact by stationing American forces on Israeli-held territory now, in order to deter war and advance the chances of peace...
...Nevertheless, an agreement, with all its faults, is better than none...
...The Syrians take over civilian control of the area but do not advance any troops in it...
...They would deal with issues of current security and interests as well as matters of basic defense and survival...
...The clear aim of the Rabin government is to take Egypt out of the war, whether through an Egyptian statement of non-belligerency or through an Egyptian commitment to the non-use of force for a period of several years...
...There are several reasons why this is so...
...But Sadat is convinced that he simply cannot afford to be separated from Syria...
...The Jordanian-Israeli agreement need not be applied in stages...
...Far more significantly, each successive war has had wider and more serious consequences than the one preceding it...
...Israel would maintain only restricted forces in these positions...
...But this point can be met in a different way in the context of an American-Israeli security pact...
...And he strove, in the midst of war, to promote conditions that would be more conducive to peace than those which had prevailed earlier...
...At the same time, however, American policy must take account of the immense power of nuclear and thermonuclear weapons...
...Dead, that is, if pursued in its original framework...
...Nevertheless, an American treaty commitment to Israel before an Arab-Israeli settlement is reached would be extremely undesirable on several scores...
...It is a plausible effort so long as it is not distorted into a formula for unilateral concessions...
...The recent agreement on terms masks a fundamental disagreement on aims...
...free navigation...
...the War of Attrition in 1969-70 demonstrated to the Arabs their inability to regain territory without agreeing to peace...
...At the same time, however, it gives rise to two temptations which might well impede the possibility of peace...
...the United States is bound to avoid irreversible confrontations which could lead to nuclear calamity, yet it must not allow the threat of such confrontations to be used as blackmail...
...How would the Arabs view such a treaty...
...The logic is quite appealing: by starting with the simplest issues, one has a relatively good chance of experiencing success...
...Moreover, he followed through on his concern by massive diplomatic efforts which produced two disengagement agreements between Israel and Egypt, and one between Israel and Syria...
...It is one thing for the United States to risk these interests in the future in response to possible violations of a settlement to which the Arab side will have committed itself, and it is quite another thing for it to risk them while upholding one side in an open dispute...
...The step-by-step approach is ostensibly designed to start with the simplest elements of a problem, and, by promoting agreement on them, create more favorable conditions for attacking the next more difficult issues, until the moment is reached when an assault on the remaining problems becomes possible...
...But the Secretary chose to alter that framework, and to introduce a new element which changes it quite substantially: American pressure...
...To make certain that the American mutual defense pact with Israel is not taken as a hostile act towards the Arabs, the United States might offer to conclude treaties of friendship and cooperation with the Arab states willing to do so...
...Correspondingly, Israel deploys only limited forces on its side of the border, and the two sides apply joint measures of inspection...
...Stage 2: When all this will have taken place, Israeli forces pull back from the rest of the Golan except for three or four "tiny" positions which they retain permanently...
...The most likely scenario is that once Israel's withdrawal in the Sinai has been consummated, Syria will begin to put military pressure on Israel, with help from Jordan and, perhaps, Iraq...
...The author of the proposal recognizes the likelihood that some Arab countries might react by concluding similar treaties with the Soviet Union, but he is not deterred by the prospect...
...land of the Soviet Union and the southern flank of NATO...
...The Egyptians take over civil administration of Sinai and fly their flag in its capital...
...The Egyptians take full possession of Sinai, but continue not to deploy other than light desert troops beyond the passes, and other than disengagement forces between Suez and the passes...
...But a policy of containment of the Arab-Israel conflict is not only dangerous, it is also unnecessary...
...evokes an almost instinctive revulsion...
...Third, even if an American treaty commitment to Israel did not lead to a hot war, it would surely revive a new version of cold war which would set back de'tente and, above all, put a very heavy strain on NATO...
...In addition, as an insurance against longer term contingencies, the United States would offer Israel a mutual security pact...
...If Arab hopes turn out to be wrong and the United States does support Israel fully, the danger of a super-power confrontation would be extremely high...
...The facts are that there is no time to breathe easy, and that the Kissinger approach has reached as far as it can, and needs now to be followed by a far bolder effort to achieve a comprehensive peace...
...Thus far, all efforts to help the parties achieve peace have failed...
...If In a United States still smarting from the trauma of Vietnam, the idea of taking on new commitments...
...Hence, at one and the same time, events have made the Arab-Israel conflict less susceptible of containment, more susceptible of comprehensive resolution...
...It is with this in mind, as well as some additional considerations having to do with observation and water sources, that the following outline is developed...
...A similar treaty between the Soviet Union and Israel should help allay Soviet fears that the American - Israeli treaty might be directed against them, as well as Israeli fears in the event the Soviets conclude defense treaties with Arab countries...
...The United States has not had to fight a war once in this century because of a clear treaty obligation toward an ally, even though it has engaged in scores of pacts, whereas it has gone to war and undertaken military action many times since 1945 to meet all sorts of ambiguous or uncertain obligations...
...As a result, the step-by-step approach has been self-defeating...
...cessation of hostile propaganda...
...The first, in 1948, had scarcely any effects beyond the area...
...reduction of armament levels...
...In such cases, the step-by-step approach becomes, in fact, a way of avoiding the main problem rather than a way of coming closer to its solution...
...we do not have as much time to get started on that settlement as the terms of the agreement might suggest...
...Joint military commissions would be established which would collect and evaluate intelligence, prepare contingency plans, map out logistics and recommend levels of needed supply and assistance...
...Such a guarantee may be welcomed by the Israelis as an added assurance, but is not likely to induce them to trade for it enough territorial security assets to make a settlement possible...
...forces deploy in the area and give way gradually to joint inspection patrols...
...The tendency now will be to breathe easier, to enjoy the respite...
...He is a specialist on the Middle East and the Arab-Israeli conflict...
...The Administration wants an agreement in order to avoid going to Geneva under the shadow of failure, and in order to maintain Sadat's orientation towards the United States, and, perhaps, in order to defuse the Middle East situation on the eve of presidential elections...
...Besides getting back the Abu Rodeis oil fields, they can explore for resources in the rest of Sinai, except for some Israeli military areas...
...The psychological and material assets needed for a final settlement are frittered away in meeting the crises...
...Upon ratification of the agreement, Israel pulls back to the line cf El Arish-Ras Muhammad...
...Thus, while American pressures since last March brought Israel around in September, it is evident that in exchange for the concessions it agreed to make, Israel insisted on assurances that the United States would not propose any comprehensive settlement without prior consultation and coordination, would insure a substantial flow of military and economic assistance for the duration of the new agreement, and would refrain from pressure in connection with a possible Israeli-Syrian agreement...
...Agreement on all other questions would generate very heavy pressure for a reasonable compromise on this issue...
...As in October 1973, the Arab side, with Soviet backing, may still go to war for proclaimed limited aims in the hope that the United States would then be inhibited in its support for Israel...
...A system of pacts might thus develop to promote and buttress a structure of peace in the Middle East...
...Israel will respond with counterpressure, the clashes will escalate, and Egypt will not be able to stay out of the way, regardless of the terms of the new agreement...
...The Golan is important mainly because of its height...
...The Israeli obligation would thus be confined to the case of an attack on American personnel, installations, and facilities in Israeli territory and territorial waters, if such should be positioned there...
...Once the United States is committed by treaty to Israel's defense, Israelis would have little incentive to yield enough of the conquered territories to make peace possible...
...the step-by-step approach becomes...
...Even if this scenario does not lead to a general war, its result will be the complete undoing of all the progress towards settlement that has been so painfully nurtured, the discrediting of America's ability to make or keep peace, and severe friction between the United States and one or both parties to the agreement...
...We should also recognize that we do not have as much time to get started on that settlement as the terms of the agreement might suggest...
...it is close to the heartA policy of containment of the Arab-Israeli conflict is not only-dangerous, it is also unnecessary...
...success breeds trust, and trust makes it possible to deal with more difficult problems successfully, and so on...
...The pursuit of freedom cannot be freely undertaken...
...These conditions include: no shooting, no infiltration...
...To the extent that the negotiations progress, pressure would mount on the PLO to jump on the bandwagon of peace, or else risk facing Israel alone...
...party to an ongoing conflict and would antagonize and alienate important Arab countries — such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates — which have important interests in common with the United States...
...This diversion may have been unavoidable, but that does not alter the fact that by the time the process was resumed, much of the early momentum had been lost...
...In addition, the agreement with Jordan would have special provisions relating to the Palestinian question because Jordan was the previous sovereign in the West Bank and because it has a large number of Palestinians in its population...
...Because of the problems that Ullman's proposal raises, most political analysts agree that an American security assurance to Israel should be given only after a settlement, though it should be promised before in order to help achieve one...
...This stage lasts for, say, five years, during which certain conditions must prevail in order for the next stage to come into effect...
...But such an approach would be highly dangerous and unnecessarily defeatist...
...The Soviet Union, capitalizing on the turmoil in the region, has already established a strong position in it, which tempts it to seek predominance...
...These principles would consist of recognizing the right of self-determination for the Palestinians in the general area of the West Bank and Gaza, conditioned by commitment on the part of the Palestinian "entity" to recognize the sovereignty and integrity of Israel and Jordan and to live at peace with them...
...a way of avoiding the main problem rather than a way of coming closer to its solution...
...For Israel, the pattern sets up at the outset the quality of the peace she is to obtain at the end, and allows her to hold important security assets until she does in fact obtain that peace...
...It is not at all uncommon for national interests and objectives to point in opposite directions...
...In what follows, I show why this is so, and offer a proposal for the way in which the United States should approach this next critical period in the Middle East...
...Given these elementary perceptions, the American interest in the Middle East points to two sets of objectives...
...Altogether, this procedure could greatly increase the malleability of the Palestinian question...
...If agreement on essentials were reached there, too, we would then go to Geneva, and the conference would break up into subcommittees for Egyptian - Israeli, Syrian - Israeli, Jordanian - Israeli affairs...
...As long as Israeli forces remain on the heights, their depth is not very important...
...So, too, does the search for agreement on a particular step in order to serve some immediate purpose or simply to buy time, without regard to the effect of agreement on the next step...
...So much for the danger of a policy of containment...
...Would the treaty involve Israel in possible American conflicts in other parts of the world...
...This makes it all the more urgent for the United States to invest its effort in the direction of a comprehensive peace settlement rather than in what was once thought to be a more modest alternative...
...The area evacuated by the Israelis would be demilitarized and resettled by Syrian farmers...
...The idea of some sort of security guarantee for Israel, once deemed bold, is now commonplace, and the only question is about the nature and timing of the guarantee to be provided...
...There is much merit in Ullman's argument that uncertainty about the American commitment tends to invite probing and complications, whereas certainty tends to have a stabilizing effect...
...by the time of the fifth, in 1973, the entire international system was implicated...
...if we recognize its limitations, the present agreement can be put to good use...
...exchange of diplomatic representation...
...III...
...For this to happen, the agreements must be well viewed by the parties at the time they are concluded...
...First, the United States must strive to prevent the accession to predominance in the region of any potentially hostile power — in the present circumstances, the Soviet Union — and it must prevent both an interruption of the flow of oil to the free world and the manipulation of oil in a manner that endangers world stability...
...A PROPOSAL FOR COMPREHENSIVE PEACE TO BE APPLIED IN STAGES I. Israel and Egypt Stage 1: Israel and Egypt sign a peace agreement including a settlement of all outstanding questions and comprising Israeli recognition of Egyptian sovereignty over the entire Sinai...
...Mitigation or Resolution The Arab-Israel conflict has persisted for a whole generation, and has erupted into war five times...
...Sinai is important because it provides potential strategic depth and cuts flying time...
...He used one limited victory to establish a foothold on the next, and he scrupulously refrained from applying any pressure of his own...
...V. An American-Israel _Mutual Security Pact_ Finally, some reflections about the proposed American-Israeli mutual security pact...
...third, a firm American security pact...
...The first is the temptation to relax, to breathe a sigh of relief and turn our attention away from the continuing crisis...
...These conditions include: continued absence of shooting, infiltration, hostile propaganda...
...freezing of armament levels...
...But if the alliance is to be used for bargaining, what is the point of concluding it in advance of a settlement in the first place...
...And while this may gain some time, it does so only at the price of very grave problems later on...
...reconstruction of Kuneitra and return of Syrian civilians and farmers...
...it contains a large number of countries, most of them weak and therefore vulnerable to external blandishment...
...Second, an American treaty commitment to Israel before a settlement may not deter war any more than the present informal commitment to Israel's survival...
...This pattern settlement thus recognizes from the outset Egypt's title to all of Sinai and establishes from the first day a definite five-year timetable for her taking actual possession of most of it, and an additional five years for taking possession of the remainder...
...President Sadat, and even President Assad of Syria, have indeed already indicated that once their basic demands are met, they do not care what external guarantees Israel receives...
...And why not promise one to be concluded after a settlement had been reached...
...The only merit of the idea of a multilateral guarantee is that it obviates the apprehensions that the Soviets and the Arabs might have about an American guarantee to Israel being directed against them maliciously...
...In exchange for the promise of this kind of treaty, Israel would most probably be willing to contemplate a peace settlement along the lines previously suggested...
...Between the passes and the new Israeli line, there can be either UN troops or joint Egyptian-Israeli patrols...
...It is a critical crossroads of three continents...
...Those objectives — an end to the threat of Soviet predominance, and an end to Israel's peril — are served only by peace...
...when they do, the appropriate response is to seek to mitigate, or actually to resolve the contradiction, rather than pursue one to the detriment of the other...
...By removing any doubts through a formal and tangible American commitment to Israel's security, the United States would not only deter a war but would also create favorable conditions for an eventual settlement...
...Correspondingly, Israeli forces in the area remaining under their control are limited...
...First, there was a long pause in the negotiations: instead of using the initial diplomatic success as a foundation for continuing effort, the United States spent its assets to buy itself time for Watergate, and to give the new Rabin government time to establish its authority...
...Accordingly, the mitigation or resolution of the Arab-Israel conflict is crucial for American interests in the Middle East...
...In exchange, the Syrians receive all the Israeli settlements intact, and, possibly, the area of el Hama, a demilitarized area in pre-1967 Israel...
...Joint arrangements would be made to inspect compliance...
...The lessons of history show that even when the guarantors are allies, they are apt to develop paralyzing differences in times of crisis, as did Britain and France in connection with the Rhineland and Czechoslovakia...
...A Comprehensive Solution As an alternative to step-by-step negotiations, I propose a comprehensive settlement, to be unfolded in stages, and involving two basic elements: 1. Israel would agree to return the territories occupied in 1967 (with "insubstantial modifications" specified below) and to recognize the "legitimate rights" of the Palestinians, much as the Arab side demands, in exchange for a procedure that would give to Israel the "real peace" and security it demands...
...That is why it proved impossible, last March, to work out a new accord, and that is why the Secretary The United States should be content with nothing less than that which serves its own interests best...
...The second is the temptation to assume that one step automatically begets another, that the apparent success of Secretary Kissinger's approach up to this point validates a continuing reliance on that approach...
...The 1967 war created for the first time the possibility of bargaining between the Arab States and Israel...
...A party that has been compelled by pressure to assent to one agreement is more likely to brace itself against the next set of proposals, if not to try to subvert the one already reached...
...We would start by exploring the idea with Israel and, if agreement on essentials were reached, we would go on to explore it with Egypt...
...it contains most of the world's oil reserves, and is the principal source of energy for Western Europe and Japan...
...Detente is a reflection of the effort to navigate between these two poles...
...Second, the United States must support the sovereign State of Israel and assist in its development...
...The area they evacuate is taken over by small, light Egyptian desert forces...
...Such pressure undermines the logic of the step-by-step approach, even though it appears, superficially, to work...
...The question is which, if either, is possible...
...Peace itself may be less likely than war, but it has suddenly become more likely, more available, than continuing limited conflict...
...One alternative is a unilateral American guarantee of Israel's security...
...Stage 1: As in the case of Egypt, a full peace agreement is signed...
...In other words, Israel's return to the (slightly modified) boundaries of 1967 would be compensated by three things: first, provisions regarding the quality of the peace built into the agreement...
...This stage lasts for five years during which time certain conditions must prevail in order for the next stage to come into effect...
...It is also a treaty designed to help make possible, at last, a reconciliation of our interest in Israel with our interests in the Arab world...
...forces, if they are still there, are dismissed, and the Egyptians and Israelis apply joint measures for inspecting compliance with the agreement...
...Pressure perverts the purpose of the step-by-step approach...
...Let us recall that, although the treaty would be promised to Israel before a settlement in order to encourage her to enter into one, it would not take effect until after a peace settlement agreed to by the relevant Arab countries had been signed and sealed...
...Step-by-Step Secretary of State Kissinger recognized in October of 1973 that peace was not just a convenience, but a necessity for the United States...
...If Israel were to hold elections for a Palestinian National Assembly in the West Bank and Gaza (under neutral supervision), understanding that candidates must subscribe to the "principles regarding the future of the Palestinians," pressure on the PLO would mount...
...But in order to achieve them, the Administration has been forced to overlook critical contradictions in the intentions of the principal parties to the new agreement...
...A multilateral guarantee, such as the one recently advocated by Zbig-nicw Brzezinski, has all the disadvantages of a unilateral guarantee plus the fatal one of drastically diminished credibility...
...Making a multilateral guarantee binding on the signatories singly as well as jointly may ease this point in principle, but even in that case it would add a delay of time needed for joint consultations before united action, which would in turn increase the chances of such outside help being futile...
...In order for that way of life to persist and prosper, other free societies must exist, not only for strategic reasons but also to provide mutual confirmation of their faith in free government...
...The positions retained by the Israelis would consist of small but strategic outposts controlling the access routes from the Golan to mainland Israel and vice versa, the Banias source of the River Jordan and an observation spot in the northwest of the Golan...
...First, such a step would make the United States a...
...However, precisely if the United States is to avoid other Vietnams, reflection must correct instinct...
...The argument is that the United States is bound to intervene militarily in case Israel's existence is endangered, but that the parties to the conflict themselves entertain doubts on the question...
...Sadat has even urged Israel to look to such guarantees, rather than to Arab territory, for her security...
...As to Jerusalem, that question should be left for last, until after the other issues have been resolved...
...Such an agreement would set Israel's neighbors free to address their own problems with Israel...
...For one thing, heavy dependence on a unilateral guarantee is seen by the Israelis as humiliating and incongruent with their strong sense of self-reliance and sovereignty...
...The momentum from one success helps to achieve the next...
...I have deliberately stressed a mutual security pact to come into effect after comprehensive peace agreements have been concluded in order to distinguish my proposal from several others that have been suggested recently...
...The United States should be content with nothing less than that which serves its own interests best, that which will permit it to pursue simultaneously both of its major objectives in the Middle East...
...It must do so because Israel is a free society, and because the United States requires strong and reliable friends in the region in order to uphold its objectives there...
...Under such conditions, the credibility of the treaty in the eyes of all parties would be high from the outset and would increase, rather than diminish, with the passage of time...
...There are, after all, times when dangerous policies are the only policies available...
...These provisions would cover the question of compensation for those Palestinians who would opt for Jordanian citizenship...
...In a United States still smarting from the trauma of Vietnam, the idea of taking on new commitments in an area that has been raked by war for more than a quarter of a century understandably evokes an almost instinctive revulsion...
...of State declared at that time that "the step-by-step approach is dead...
...If this trend were to continue, it would not only make the effort to contain and stabilize the conflict more difficult, it would also make the consequences of another failure disastrous...
...Under these circumstances, the Arab parties should have no objection to a pact designed to secure the realization of obligations willingly assumed by them...
...In the former case, the sanctity of freely contracted agreements — the foundation of any international order — would be at stake, whereas in the latter case, intervention would be only in order to uphold a partisan, unilateral American decision...
...Still more important, however, is the evident inclination of the United States to sanction an agreement that contains within itself the seeds of its own destruction...
...With no space for maneuver, vulnerable frontiers, surrounded on three sides by states massively equipped with the most modern means of warfare, Israel might be overrun or crippled before adequate help could reach her...
...also in two stages, free movement of third parties' men and goods and then movement of parties' men and goods on a non-discriminatory basis...
...At some point we might allow the Jordanian-Israeli committee to overtake the Egyptian-Israeli...
...The joint activities among professional men in the field would foster the development of common perspectives and agreed recommendations to the political levels in both countries, thus reducing the chances of divergence at the moment of crisis...
...And the 1973 war demonstrated to Israel that its military superiority could not force Arabs to accept the status quo of stalemate, much less an Israeli-defined comprehensive settlement...
...continued free navigation...
...Now, these aims may be perfectly valid...
...Yet if we are to avoid a situation in which hasty solutions to sudden crises are required, and in which whatever advantage we may now have is wasted in responding to escalating tension, we must begin the movement towards a comprehensive solution now...
...It can enter into effect immediately after Egypt signs an agreement with Israel and could thus set the pace for the process of actual peaceful relations...
...Egypt takes over the line of the passes, but only with troops allowed by the first disengagement agreement...
...The key to the process is the building up of trust among the parties through the experience of satisfactory mutual dealings...
...free movement of third party persons and goods...
...The Israelis also fear that it might cause the United States to be less forthcoming with the necessary assistance for them to maintain their own deterrent capacity...
...It follows that it is in the interest of the United States to uphold free governments everywhere, and to prevent the predominance in the world of antithetical forms of government...
...It is suspect as providing insufficient assurances against encroachments on Israeli interests short of survival and, at the same time, as being apt to inhibit Israel's own actions to protect those interests...
...Where the guarantors are rivals, like the United States and the Soviet Union, the assumption of an agreed joint response in an emergency is sheer fantasy...
...In the present circumstances, this means that the United States must seek to prevent Soviet and Chinese predominance in the vast blocs of transitional nations which make up the Third World...
...American pressure on them to do so would be ineffective unless the continuation of the alliance itself were put on the line...
...freezing and then reduction of armament levels in two stages...
...But after the Israeli-Syrian agreement, his method changed, and the necessary momentum was thereby lost...
...These doubts invite probes by Israel's enemies while discouraging Israel from relinquishing territories she deems essential for her security, thus increasing the chances of war and making a settlement impossible...
...Upon ratification, Israeli forces pull back to a line resting on the eastern slopes of the chain of hills that runs in an arch going south and east from the Hermon positions to the hills east of the southern tip of the sea of Galilee, more or less parallel to the edge of the Golan...
...It is not quite true that the Golan does not offer possibilities of stages, if one keeps in mind the difference between its security significance and that of Sinai...
...Yet, because of the Arab-Israel dispute, the pursuit of American objectives for the region as a whole may come into conflict with the pursuit of American objectives for Israel in particular...
...Nadav Safran The successful conclusion of the latest round of step-by-step negotiations in the Middle East creates at last a possibility of durable peace in that troubled region...
...These may all be sensible conditions, but they show quite clearly how the use of pressure at one step puts a lien on the prospects of agreement on the next step...
...He has contributed to various publications, most recently to foreign affairs, and his latest book iS from war to war...
...The critical issue here is the understanding that the new agreement marks the end of the utility of the step-by-step approach, and should be a prelude to a major effort to reach a comprehensive settlement...
Vol. 1 • October 1975 • No. 4
