Gambling on the Golan

GOLD, DORE

GAMBLING ON THE GOLAN DORE GOLD Unexpectedly, the prospects for a Syrian-Israeli diplomatic breakthrough look more positive as the negotiating teams resume meetings in Washington. The West...

...Most Americans who visit the Golan Heights become convinced that Israel's main security problem in this disputed territory is the threat of Syrian artillery to Israeli farms below, as it was before 1967...
...The greatest impediment to a Golan agreement is the Sinai precedent: Israel's willingness in 1979 to withdraw to the international border...
...Visitors returning from Syria report that Syrian popular sentiment is changing and might be ready to move toward some kind of understanding with Israel...
...After a Scud missile barrage on Israeli cities, Israel might find that its mobilization time was lengthened from 48 hours to 72 or more...
...Intelligence collection can be replaced by air-based or space-based observation...
...But that level of peace is not even found among the Arab states themselves...
...I would say that, on the basis of the laws that exist at the moment, what AID is doing is unconstitutional...
...Syria does not have to take such action to go on the offense...
...What is tempting on the Golan, in short, is the prospect of removing Syria along with Egypt from Israel's front line and thereby ending the military dimension of the Arab-Israeli conflict...
...If Israel withdraws only two miles west of the 1974 cease-fire line, it loses control of the apex of the Golan at Kav Ha-Tilim and becomes situated downhill without strategic control over the plain on which the Syrian army might become arrayed...
...These changes could compensate Israel for its loss of territorial depth by increasing the time required by Syria to mobilize its army or to shift forces from another remote border...
...In the first zone each side is allowed two brigades (3,000 men apiece...
...Some of these new attitudes might have an economic motivation...
...With the Hatzbani River that feeds the Jordan situated in Lebanon, only the Dan River source of the Jordan would remain in Israeli hands...
...The first ruling was made in October of 1990, the same time AID was preparing the textbook project in Nicaragua...
...Both armies have since grown, but it would be fair from the past to assume Israel could be outnumbered 4 to 1, or even more than 10 to 1, before its reserves arrive...
...But if intelligence fails, the combat capability, especially of armored units, is affected by the terrain from which it fights...
...Its small standing units would then be even more dependent on any advantage derived from initial terrain conditions while waiting for reinforcements...
...more may yet be formed...
...The Golan provides Israel with a topographical advantage that allows its vastly outnumbered standing army to hold off a Syrian surprise assault while the reserve call-up is completed...
...Gambling on the Golan continued from page 35 the Syrians, Kissinger found Assad sensitive to its proximity to Damascus...
...The West Bank-Gaza negotiations over an interim Palestinian autonomy were supposed to be the easier arrangement, from an Israeli perspective, for they were designed to put off the issue of territorial withdrawal until later final status talks...
...Syria's purchase of self-propelled artillery last year has improved the offensive capability of its ground forces...
...The "land for peace" theory rests on the idea that by withdrawing from territory from which it was threatened or attacked in the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel might be increasing its vulnerability, but at the same time it will be reducing the hostile intent of its militant adversaries...
...On the other hand, returning the West Bank to the Palestinians increases Israeli vulnerability without reducing the hostile intent of a party capable of waging war...
...With total withdrawal, Israel loses control of the Banias headwaters of the Jordan which Damascus attempted to divert in the 1960s and returns the Syrians to the shores of the Sea of Galilee...
...A 12th Syrian division was added in 1991...
...For Syria to enter the world economy and obtain access to technology it must terminate its status as a radical pariah state supporting terrorism...
...The entire Golan is 16 miles wide...
...it is situated facing a relatively narrow sector in the Golan Heights that is very easy for Israel to defend...despite achieving surprise, the Syrians did not succeed in achieving their aims during the Yom Kippur War...
...With the IDF today sitting at the apex of the Golan along Kav Ha-Tilim—a row of volcanic hills directly facing the cease-fire line—Israel commands the entire Syrian valley, permitting observation of the movement of Syrian forces and encampments...
...Israeli risks in the Syrian peace talks cannot be comprehended without clarifying the central strategic issues in Israel's north...
...Unlike Sinai, the Golan Heights is topographically badly laid out for diplomacy—even for a limited interim withdrawal...
...Syria's 600-700 newest T-72 tanks, just bought from former Eastern bloc countries, are being positioned on its front lines against Israel...
...After branding the Camp David accords a "sellout," it would be difficult for the Syrians to justify obtaining even less of the full Golan than the Egyptians obtained of the Sinai 13 years ago...
...without yet changing their formal positions regarding a peace treaty, the Syrians have a new tone in their dealings with the Rabin government...
...Alternatively, Israelis might look for signs of a stable Western European-type peace with Syria as a precondition for Israel gambling on a Golan withdrawal...
...If Israel's main concern boils down to the placement of Syrian howitzers, then just the demilitarization of any evacuated territory should adequately reduce Israeli risks...
...Is a Syrian-Israeli deal possible...
...Hence, the return of Sinai seemed to address what had become Egypt's underlying reason for going to war...
...But politics—not the Constitution-was apparendy foremost in the minds of U.S...
...Both district court and court of appeals judges disagreed with AID...
...In 1974, when Secretary of State Henry Kissinger negotiated the Golan disengagement agreement, he created two other limited forces zones, each 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) wide to the east and west of the 6 kilometer (3.7 mile) demilitarized zone where UN forces were placed to separate the two armies...
...With recent declarations by hawkish Israeli spiritual leaders like former Chief Rabbi Shlomo Goren, that unlike the West Bank, the Golan is not "Eretz Yisrael," the Israeli perspective on the Golan appears to be less of an ideological issue and therefore can be reduced to manageable strategic considerations alone...
...But the Israeli military has chiefly seen the Golan as a defense line for Israel's quantitatively inferior forces...
...Avigdor "Yanosh" Ben-Gal told Ha-aretz on October 6, 1992, that he would be ready to withdraw if the Golan Heights and all southern Syria were demilitarized...
...The proliferation of ballistic missiles has magnified these considerations...
...Moreover, it has removed the primary threat to Syria's northern rival, Turkey, freeing Ankara's hand in disputes with Damascus over Euphrates water and Kurdish terrorism...
...The settlement issue is far more complicated...
...But even if signs of new Syrian attitudes become evident as a result of these changes and Israeli-Syrian negotiations are accelerated, hard problems remain that make a Syrian-Israeli agreement extremely difficult...
...Although the Syrians assured Kissinger that no more than nine brigades would be placed in this zone, Assad did not agree to putting this restriction in writing...
...Withdrawal by Israel a few more miles to the west gives some of the first Golan settlements into Syrian hands...
...The answer depends on whether the parties have an interest in making the necessary sacrifices: the deeper Israel's withdrawal, the greater those sacrifices will be...
...What if Syria offered peace on the Egyptian model—full withdrawal for full diplomatic relations, but with incomplete reconciliation...
...Unlike the situation in Sinai, where relatively new-settlements had to be moved, many of the Golan's 12,000 Israeli residents have lived there for more than two decades...
...In his opinion, District Court Judge Leonard B. Sand wrote,"Whether the advancement of religion occurs in the United States or abroad is simply not relevant to the United States taxpayer who objects to United States sectarian institutions receiving money for use in promoting religion...
...The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are built around a small standing army, deployed along several fronts, that can be reinforced to 12 divisions only after about 48 hours by mobilizing the reserves...
...The disintegration of the Soviet Union has made war against Israel into a trapeze act without the Soviet net...
...Israel's defensive advantage that Shomron describes is vital because of the acute asymmetry between the size of the land armies of Syria and Israel—and the constant temptation, that this imbalance of power creates for Damascus to initiate hostilities...
...Baker said AID should have known better than to fund a series of religious books in Nicaragua after what happened with the Lamont case...
...Israel's diplomatic challenge will be to assess the degree of political change in Syria before deciding upon the magnitude of military risk that can be assumed...
...Much of this optimism has been driven by Syrian statements about "total peace...
...While the Golan Heights abuts areas containing the sources of Israel's water supply, the West Bank borders the very heart of Israel, where 80 percent of its industrial capacity and nearly 70 percent of its population are concentrated...
...This imbalance is made more acute by the structure of the armed forces of both countries...
...Israelis prepared to withdraw from the Golan Heights often condition their recommendation on a substantial modification of the imbalance of conventional forces: for example, removing the entire Syrian army to behind Damascus or cutting the Syrian standing army, or having Syria adopt a reserve system like Israel...
...At present, the hope for any Syrian-Israeli agreement does not emanate from a decline in Syria's military capabilities but rather from indications of some changes in Syria's intentions...
...Thus Israel's former chief of staff, Lieutenant General Dan Shomron, asserted in 1991: "Syria has a military problem that is not simple...
...Syria has the largest military force sitting immediately against any of Israel's borders...
...A Syrian assault would be fully exposed to Israeli counter-fire, while Israeli positions to the west would be beyond the Syrians' line of sight...
...Israel does not publish how many standing divisions it deploys in peacetime...
...Beyond its more noted acquisition of North Korean Scud-C missiles, Syria, unlike Israel, seems determined to expand its ground forces...
...officials when the textbook project was conceived...
...While there are good arguments for why Israel should accelerate the Palestinian track of negotiations, there is a second set of considerations for why the Syrian track might be more promising...
...The 12-division Syrian army is based mosdy on standing active service formations that are deployed in two sectors—in Lebanon and in the Damascus-Golan area...
...New geopolitical considerations are driving Syria as well...
...In promoting one set of basic values, the U.S...
...It should be expected, however, that President Assad—for whom the army is the backbone of his power—will resist any demonstrable infringement on his sovereignty in the vicinity of his capital...
...Israel can threaten Syria if it calls up its reserves...
...The Nicara-guans desperately needed new textbooks "sanitized of totalitarian messages and promoting basic democratic principles," according to an AID document on the Nicaraguan assistance...
...Nevertheless, the strategic importance of the areas within Israel contiguous to the West Bank are more acute than those adjacent to the Golan...
...And yet a new optimism about a Golan arrangement has overtaken West Bank-Gaza expectations...
...Territorial compromise on the Golan comes closer to the Egyptian model by modifying a fundamental grievance of Israel's most well-armed adversary and hence, potentially reducing the chances of war...
...Former head of the IDF Northern Command, Major General (res...
...It is difficult to imagine that Israel could accept such a peace without significant concessions by Syria involving deep cuts in and redeployment of their armed forces...
...government attorneys argued that the Establishment Clause does not apply to the United States' foreign activities...
...Given the pattern of recent Syrian military investment, an adequate conventional defense for Israel is still relevant in the Middle East missile age...
...About 40 miles separate the Syrian capital from the Golan front...
...While scrupulously keeping the 1974 agreements to this day, Assad demonstrated the extreme difficulty in limiting Syrian forces close to Damascus...
...government may have foresaken another...
...Egypt began the Yom Kippur War to recover Sinai...
...When the second zone—the more eastward one—was proposed to against AID on behalf of American taxpayers, alleging that the AID funding violated the Establishment Clause, U.S...
...In the summer of 1973, Israel's 60 tanks on the Golan faced 800 Syrian tanks...

Vol. 17 • December 1992 • No. 6


 
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