THE GULF CRISIS & ISRAEL

RUBIN, BARRY

THE GULF CRISIS & ISRAEL Israel's New Relations With Syria and Jordan-Opportunity and Danger BARRY RUBIN Whatever the outcome of the Persian Gulf confrontation, its resolution will mark a major...

...If Israel and the U.S...
...At present, Israel's debt to the United States is $10 billion...
...At worst, the new Palestinian leadership might be militant fundamentalists...
...Iraq's seizure of Kuwait on August 2 provided Syria with an opportunity to rescue itself...
...In addition, these aircraft can be supplemented by commercial airliners, mainly to move people...
...These new Middle East alignments pose enormous challenges and dangers—as well as opportunities—both to the U.S...
...The plan I propose would create a healthier relationship between two genuine friends and encourage Israel to institute the reforms its economy so desperately needs...
...loan guarantees must be sought...
...If Jordan were too weak to negotiate with Israel before the Kuwait crisis, it is even weaker now...
...In 1966, when Assad was defense minister, he was responsible for Arafat's arrest...
...much of the money is used to purchase products used by the army, which means it stimulates the economy by being filtered through it...
...Nevertheless, if Jordan's government so orders, media attacks on the United States and most of the demonstrations will stop...
...Yossi Sarid, a Knesset member representing Ratz, the citizens' rights party, and a leader in the Israeli peace movement, has openly acknowledged that the Palestinian Arabs—particularly those living within Israel and the territories^—have made a fool of him and his cothinkers because they clearly want to destroy, not negotiate, with Israel...
...Is Moscow Playing the Same Old Game...
...The tragedy is that Israeli politicians accept U.S...
...My best guess, one I would not hazard even a small bet on, is a face-saving compromise in which both sides give, Saddam Hussein nominally more than the United States...
...But these concerns had peaked by August...
...Despite the ideological gymnastics involved in cooperating with the United States to protect Saudi Arabia, Syria's cooperation with the anti-Iraq coalition gives it a way to obtain economic assistance, isolate its arch-rival Saddam I lusscin and improve relations with the West, The United Slates must he cautions, however, in developing ties with Syria...
...When Iraq invaded Kuwait, Jordan was preoccupied with domestic economic problems and the threat of Islamic fundamentalism...
...The biggest problem facing the United States was the difficulties inherent in moving massive quantities of military equipment from the United States to Saudi Arabia, a distance of 7,000 miles by air and 10,000 miles by sea...
...Hoping to free themselves from Israel, in despair over the prolonged occupation, most Palestinians have jumped at the opportunity to back a state that has stood up to America and the West...
...an unstable Jordan is a major threat to Israel's security...
...Israel would naturally ally itself with Syria's rivals—Jordan and Egypt...
...In addition, eight large, fast sealift ships were purchased capable of carrying an entire heavy division in one haul...
...As it happened, however, diplomatic realities coincided with the strategic situation...
...JOEL As an expression BAINERMAN Qf gratitude for Egypt's stand in the Gulf crisis and because of the strains on its economy, President George Bush has asked Congress to cancel Egypt's $7 billion debt to the United States...
...Hence, a possible consequence of the Gulf crisis may be the opening of a peace process between Israel and the Palestinians, an outcome which will dismay the current Israeli government...
...So King Hussein did the natural thing, stalling for time and trying—unsuccessfully—to convince both sides that he was the best mediator...
...5.5 billion was restructured during 1988 and 1989 and is now owed to commercial banks in the U.S...
...If Israel's economy were reformed, it could easily live without even this assistance...
...It is troubling that after initially hinting at the prospect of Soviet units joining the multinational force in the Gulf, 28 MOMENT • DECEMBER 1990 Moscow has now decided to stay out...
...In these terms, Syria's obstructionism and hawkishness were quite logical: Peace would make Syria a second-rate power...
...Although aircraft can move critical items quickly, most of the equipment and supplies needed by U.S...
...Jordan is unlikely to engage effectively in the peace process...
...Financial assistance to Israel would become no more a political or bilateral issue than it is with West Germany, South Korea orJapan...
...Iraq is an almost land-locked country, accessible by sea only through the Persian Gulf...
...The end of the Iran-Iraq war confronted Syria once again with a powerful enemy, Iraq...
...By using the proceeds from the sale of government-owned enterprises to pay off its domestic and foreign debt, the government could eliminate its current $2 billion budget deficit and could reduce the huge chunk of the state budget (37 percent) currently allocated for debt repayment...
...The fastest cargo ships in the world take nearly two weeks to get to the Persian Gulf, counting the time needed to load and unload...
...Israel would suffer no direct economic damage, as the civilian aid dollars go out as fast as they come in and for the Americans, the money returns as soon as it leaves...
...Yet the matter is not clearcut...
...At the same time, Syria was careful to live up to its obligations under the Golan Heights disengagement agreement, and that area remained quiet...
...Did the Bush Administration Miss a Quick-Strike Military Optinn...
...During the 1970s and 1980s, Syria did gain hegemony in Lebanon...
...American aid has turned Israel into a charity case...
...In that case, Arafat will not fall...
...Several months would be needed to build a credible offensive capability...
...Jordan has now reached an understanding with the PLO: You don't interfere in our internal affairs, and we will let you operate freely in support of the intifada...
...In 1974 Assad, already president of Syria, entered a disengagement agreement with Israel, closing the Golan to PLO terrorists...
...Nor could the Arab members of the Knesset whose constituencies are also overwhelmingly pro-Iraq...
...Sending a ship, even a fast one, from the United States to Saudi Arabia is a slow process...
...As for Jordan, the hope was always that it would actually negotiate, leading to a resolution of the West Bank issue by an exchange of territory for peace...
...A peace settlement with Israel would deny Syria a major advantage in its inter-Arab struggle for regional hegemony...
...However valuable the aircraft carriers were, they did not provide the strength needed to attack Iraq or to defend Saudi Arabia...
...Is Peace Possible after the Gulf Crisis...
...Two factors account for this seeming change in U.S...
...by providing crucial intelligence information to the U.S...
...Thus, Israel's interest—like that of the United States—is in the continued rule of King Hussein, no matter what his position regarding an Arab-Israel settlement or even regarding the Iraq-Kuwait dispute...
...At the same time, however, the ferocity of Syria's anti-Israel stance was unexcelled among all the Arab states...
...If Baghdad is perceived the winner, much of the Arab masses and several regimes will rush to be on his side...
...If their economy were freed, there would simply be no need for American assistance...
...RICHARD The September 9, PIPES 1990, BushGorbachev summit in Helsinki appears to have resulted in U.S...
...influence, which would favor Egypt, Israel and Jordan over Syria...
...One is the growing belief that the Soviet Union faces such grave internal problems that it is incapable of causing further mischief in the Middle East, one of its traditional areas of expansion...
...The pattern was similar to those under which Syrian cooperation is now being sought in the Gulf crisis...
...at a maximum, his defeat in battle and/or overthrow or assassination, as urged on the U.S...
...Such a country is unlikely to be impressed by limited military strikes of the kind launched against Libya...
...The West Bank leaders, like Palestinians everywhere, have supported Saddam Hussein in the current crisis...
...No one has any real sense of the probable outcome of the Gulf crisis...
...As a close observer of the Israeli economy and someone who came to live in Israel because here I could feel proud to live as a Jew, it hurts me to see not even one committee in the Knesset investigating how Israel can eliminate U.S...
...Clearly Syria's attempts to build up its army to achieve strategic parity with Israel had failed...
...During the first weeks of the buildup, the main military capabilities available to the United States were the strike aircraft of the U.S...
...Although not capable of defending Saudi Arabia, they could have inflicted considerable damage to Iraq if sent into action as a last resort...
...In a speech to the UN General Assembly on September 24th, French President Francois Mitterrand hinted at such an outcome, saying that a withdrawal by Saddam Hussein of his forces in Kuwait could lead to a settlement of the Arab-Israeli dispute...
...On July 31, 1988, King Hussein severed his country's links with the West Bank, thus laying the basis for the Palestinian declaration of independence a few months later...
...Claiming all Palestine as part of the Arab homeland, Syria demanded control of the struggle against the Jewish state...
...Between 1983 and the day Iraq invaded Kuwait, Washington thought Iraq was a new, radical Arab ally...
...Even some soldiers, worried that they might be getting into another Vietnam, saw the reluctance to employ military force as a disturbing indication of lack of backbone...
...In these precarious circumstances, Jordan sided with Iraq...
...Ironically, Israel has become the guarantor of Jordanian sovereignty by making clear its intention to fight if Iraqi troops enter Jordan...
...Carriers would have had to launch aircraft from outside the Persian Gulf, forcing the pilots to fly 1,000 miles or more to reach potential targets and return...
...The U.S...
...Most ships take even longer...
...Without mechanized army units, however, the ability of those aircraft to defend Saudi Arabia was marginal at best...
...Had Israel not invested so much financial and human resources in developing its defense industries, one wonders how developed Israel's civilian high tech industry would be today...
...If a new threat arises from within the Arab world, Israel's best contribution, as perceived by the U.S., will be to remain as silent and invisible as possible— a position Israel is assuming in the 26 MOMENT • DECEMBER 1990 current crisis...
...The reluctance to withdraw Soviet military advisors from Iraq, officially stated as 193 but in reality closer to 1,000, also raises doubts about Soviet intentions...
...Even though the U.S...
...As if this were not bad enough, Syria was also bogged down in Lebanon's civil war and was politically isolated...
...What will America do if this scenario occurs...
...Assad has ruled with an iron grip ever since...
...Although before the Kuwait invasion Jordan had been cozying up to Iraq and had even engaged in some military cooperation with Iraq, Jordan never had any intention of sacrificing its independence to Saddam Hussein...
...W.SETH CARUS Why didn't the Bush Administration launch a so-called surgical punitive strike against Iraq shortly after the Kuwait invasion...
...is pardy to blame...
...Jordan's fulure role is even harder to decipher...
...It also intimidated Jordan from making peace with Israel...
...It will continue to officially back Israel, but with less enthusiasm, and, given budgetary constraints, with fewer real dollars...
...foreign military sales program first proposed that arms sales be financed by special loans...
...Israel receives $3 billion annually in aid, which, as Americans are repeatedly told, is the largest aid package of any country in the world...
...Jordan is a necessary component in any Arab-Israel peace, since it would have to provide security commitments on Israel's eastern border no matter what the disposition of the West Bank...
...A peace settlement would inevitably lead to increased U.S...
...After all, what is desired is a symbolic presence...
...I don't believe anyone ever had this expectation since the debt arose 15 years ago...
...government...
...Syria is not likely to make peace with Israel...
...The objective of Syrian policy during this period was not to resolve the Aral> Israel dispute or even just to regain the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in 1967 during the Six-Day War, but to ensure that Palestine did not fall into the hands of another Arab state or of Palestinians who were independent of Syrian control...
...Syria can, however, be expected to engage in tension-easing and confidence-building measures, such as regional arms control talks and the leashing of surrogate terrorists...
...Jordan's immediate problem is money—to survive the loss of Iraqi commerce and oil...
...Once unloaded, the ships have to retrace their path and return to the United States to pick up another load...
...The Soviets and Americans cooperated to settle the Nicaragua situation, and they appear to be working together to resolve tensions in the Middle East as they are in Angola, Cuba and North Korea, where Soviet clients are being pressed to yield...
...Premature use of military action would fatally threaten that support...
...to stand on the side and pose as a friend of the Arabs and the only non-"imperiaIist" great power...
...In this, the leadership reflects the sentiments of the Palestinian masses...
...In early August, Saddam Hussein had the military might to seize much more than Kuwait...
...Premature military action would have endangered the security of the oil supplies without providing any compensatory benefits...
...When they return from Washington, they smirk and self-righteously announce, "Don't worry, the Americans aren't cutting off the aid...
...The other consideration that guided this seeming shift in U.S...
...THE GULF CRISIS & ISRAEL Israel's New Relations With Syria and Jordan-Opportunity and Danger BARRY RUBIN Whatever the outcome of the Persian Gulf confrontation, its resolution will mark a major turning point for two of Israel's neighbors, Syria and Jordan...
...The Military Airlift Command operates approximately 100 C-5 and 250 G141 transport aircraft, the only ones sufficiently large to carry heavy payloads over long distances...
...Unlike Libya, which has never been more than a minor nuisance, Iraq is a formidable strategic adversary...
...Strategic and diplomatic realities forced discretion on the president...
...To avoid a repetition of this experience, the United States must neither sentimentalize Syria nor overlook its involvement in terrorism and its hard-line stance regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict...
...military aid the argument is made that Israel saves America money: by testing and developing weapons systems for the U.S., which can significantly improve American-made equipment...
...Combat equipment for a Marine expeditionary brigade was stored on ships permanently stationed at Diego Garcia...
...But it will be a compromise that leaves Saddam in power, able to claim that he faced down not only America, the bully of the Western world, but also the Soviets and his Arab enemies...
...Syria isolated Egypt for making peace with Israel...
...Several factors made it impossible for the United States to contemplate use of force against Iraq in early August...
...government to stop providing it with $1.5 billion in aid...
...acquiescence to Soviet involvement in Middle Eastern diplomacy...
...Nevertheless, it was recognized that weeks would pass before a defensive force would exist in Saudi Arabia able to protect the country against an Iraqi attack...
...Some sort of victory for Saddam Hussein—his retention of part of Kuwait or its oil, the end of the blockade and sanctions while he remains in office— will leave him the leader of a militant Arab alliance uninterested in any discussion with Israel...
...came to the new arrangement I suggest—canceling $10 billion of debt, eliminating $1.2 billion in civilian aid that is really debt service, tacking military aid onto the Pentagon budget—Congress wouldn't have to pass an aid package every year and Israel would no longer be the number one recipient of U.S...
...This step, if indeed it was taken, represents a considerable shift from long-standing U.S...
...In short, the defense burden is not as heavy as it has been painted...
...Syria even split the PLO and became the USSR's principal regional ally...
...Just as the Soviet Union claimed to represent the international proletariat's interests, whether the workers liked it or not, Syria had styled itself the guardian of Arabism...
...The State Department required Iraq to expel Abu Nidal as part of a deal that led to Iraq's removal from the State Department's list of countries thai support terrorism...
...In 1976 Syria attacked the PLO in Lebanon...
...That would effectively end American aid to Israel...
...In fact, it might be better off without it...
...When the Gulf crisis erupted, Jordan was the principal victim, next to Kuwait itself...
...While Jordan feared Iraqi aggression, it needed Iraqi trade and oil...
...All this, of course, is based on hypotheticals...
...Syria lias provided a home and support to Ahmed Jibril and his PFLI'-GC, Among other ten orisi attacks, the PF1.P-GG was involved in the bombing of the Pan-American plane over Scotland in December 1988 lhat resulted in 361 deaths...
...Of this $3 billion, $1.2 billion is for civilian aid and $1.8 billion for military aid...
...Syria encouraged terrorist attacks against Israel through Lebanon and Jordan as well as attacks on international airliners and Israeli targets outside the country...
...With the end of the Cold War, it will be increasingly difficult to justify extensive American aid to Israel as an actual or potential security asset...
...Syria and Jordan are, of course, very different...
...Moreover, Iraq had fought a bloody eight-year war with Iran, suffering an estimated 150,000 dead and 300,000 wounded...
...Once a sizable debt was accumulated, America offered Israel additional civilian aid to help repay it...
...In 1983, Syria actually split the PLO by encouraging anti-Arafat rebels and giving them PLO assets in Syria and Lebanon...
...Israelis, including most doves, will be more isolated than ever...
...My inclination is not to quarrel with the president's decision, provided the administration keeps in mind the possibilities of Moscow exploiting the situation to its own advantage...
...No Palestinian leader could resist this popular hysteria, not even Jordan's King Hussein, who presides over a country with a Palestinian majority...
...The comparison between Israel and Taiwan is especially apt because Taiwan, like Israel, has shouldered a heavy defense burden over many years...
...The State Department would no longer be able to manipulate Israel by warning, "Do what we say or we'll cancel this gift we give you...
...If Washington, along with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are perceived to be the winner, prospects will be more promising for a more stable order in the Middle East as well as in the post-Cold War world...
...civilian aid to Israel were eliminated, would anything really change...
...Israel should ask for equal treatment...
...If he had moved on the Saudi oil fields, only 200 miles from the Kuwaiti border, neither we nor the Saudis could have done anything about it...
...Taiwan was founded at about the same time as Israel, has absorbed nearly two million refugees, is only slightly larger in area than Israel and, like Israel, has limited natural resources...
...The Jordanians were painfully aware of Saddam's character and ambitions...
...foreign aid...
...During the Camp David negoIsrael Might Be Better Off Without American Aid-If the American Debt Were Forgiven tiations, President Jimmy Carter offered to reduce the bulk of this debt, but the proud Menachem Begin insisted that Israel would honor its obligation...
...at best, it might be realistic West Bank Palestinians, many of whom hoped for dialogue and negotiation with Israel even before Iraq attacked Kuwait...
...The hawks now see a real opportunity to carry through their annexationist dreams...
...is now part of the international community rather than an oudaw aggressor that it had been when it invaded Afghanistan...
...If Israel had a free economy, this $2 billion could be saved...
...The intifada will continue...
...Some steps were taken to minimize potential problems...
...and by offering other services as a dependable strategic ally...
...Like the modern welfare system, once the shame is taken out of it, there is no longer any price to pay for accepting a handout, 'fl...
...These aircraft constitute only a fraction of the lift needed in a crisis...
...Air Force...
...Despite a hobbled centralized economy, Israelis have, throughout their history, demonstrated impressive technological, industrial and trading capabilities...
...by our Arab allies, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria, as well as by Israel— could affect relationships between Israel and the Arabs and possibly even open the door to a real peace process...
...an Iraqi victory, on the other hand, is most likely to legitimate Israel's incorporation of the occupied areas and leave the peace movement in shambles...
...But if the PLO loses its funding and prestige, other leaders and forces will have a chance to take over...
...Israel could then mosdy do without American aid...
...The aid is given with no strings attached—that is, with no Israeli commitment to introduce true economic reform...
...The money is merely transferred from one American pocket to another...
...Palestine is southern Syria...
...The more hawkish elements in the Shamir coalition are obviously as happy over these recent developments as Peres and the Labor-related groups are pessimistic...
...If Saddam Hussein is defeated and Arafat goes down with him, the story— and the pressures—will be quite different...
...Syria is more powerful militarily and more influential politically...
...Nevertheless, Israel cannot expect King Hussein to express any gratitude by entering a peace process...
...Now that has all changed...
...Ironically, the solution most fervently hoped for by Shamir—the downfall of Saddam and the PLO—could undermine Israel's control of the territories and result in a Palestinian state...
...Of the $1.8 billion in military aid Israel currently receives from the U.S., 75 percent is in the form of grants to purchase arms from American defense and aerospace companies...
...In 1982, when Israel attacked the PLO in Lebanon, Syria sat on the sidelines...
...Due to these high levels of taxation, incentive is depressed and worker productivity—$27,500 per employee in Israel—is half of what it is in other western countries...
...Nor could they have protected Saudi Arabia from attack...
...The bad news is that Jordan is so preoccupied with internal problems that its future has become more worry than hope for Israelis...
...Only the remaining 25 percent of the funds can be applied to acquisitions from Israeli firms or for more appropriate and/ or inexpensive weapons systems from other countries...
...Public opinion in Jordan, particularly among the Palestinian sector of its population, is more pro-Iraq than in any other country...
...Domestic strife— always an undercurrent in a country ruled by an Alawite minority whose Arab and Islamic credentials arc suspect to the majority Sunni Moslems—was exacerbated by economic difficulties aggravated by the unwillingness of Kuwait or Saudi Arabia to provide economic aid...
...The Pentagon has long recognized that it would be difficult to send large military forces to the Persian Gulf...
...Such a commitment must be paid for...
...Navy deployed forces to the region fairly quickly, those forces pose'd no serious threat to Iraq...
...Unfortunately for the U.S., aircraft carriers cannot operate in the Persian Gulf, which is too shallow, except in limited areas, for a carrier task force to conduct the maneuvers needed for flight operations...
...Given that each flight requires a round trip of at least 14,000 miles, it is evident that in a rapid deployment aircraft can move only a fraction of the total force to Saudi Arabia...
...Ultimately, the United States is going to need the support of the international community if a long-term solution to the Persian Gulf crisis is to be found...
...Such pressure on Israel would do much, in Arab eyes, to legitimate the current alliance of Arab states with an infidel Christian nation, the United States...
...This was hardly an attractive alternative to the king...
...The Palestinians' behavior has played havoc within the Israeli peace movement, which now recognizes that it, as well as the Israeli government, has no one to talk to, no one to negotiate with...
...If the Israeli government lowered taxes, reduced its control of the economy and allowed Israeli entrepreneurs to amass wealth and transfer capital freely, the influx of hundreds of thousands of Soviet Jews would be a blessing, not an economic burden for which U.S...
...Of that debt, $4.5 billion is owed direcdy to the U.S...
...To these were added ballistic missiles and chemical weapons and a willingness to use them...
...Israel doesn't exactly throw away the billions it spends on defense...
...We deserve it," they say...
...In 1970, Syria withheld aid to the PLO during its armed conflict with Jordan...
...The debt should be canceled—a delayed acceptance of Jimmy Carter's Camp David offer...
...Of every shekel earned, 56 percent winds up as taxes...
...The suspicion lurks that some circles in the Soviet Union would not be averse to a military conflict between UN forces led by the United States and Iraq, which would allow the U.S.S.R...
...It is unlikely that the Soviet Union or its potential successor state, the Russian Republic, will entirely withdraw from competition for spheres of influence in that area and, hence, from courting Arabs...
...To move all the equipment needed for the 250,000 soldiers that the United States is sending to the Persian Gulf could not be accomplished by aircraft...
...The United States will probably retreat from overseas commitments, especially in the Middle East...
...Soviet admission into the international club of the great powers dealing with the Middle East is part of the price...
...policy...
...Throughout the Palestinian struggle, Syria has always maintained puppet Palestinian groups like al-Saiqa and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palesune-General Command (PFLP-GC) as a counterweight to Arafat...
...and to Israel...
...The Tel Aviv Chamber of Commerce estimates that, because of exclusive import licenses and government-sanctioned cartels and monopolies, Israelis pay $2 billion a year more in higher prices for their goods and services than other Western nations...
...They have antagonized the other major forces in the Arab world, including their major financial backers, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia...
...On the other hand, a pro-Iraq orientation would lose aid from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and endanger its friendship with the United States...
...policy is rather short-term and has to do with the need to enlist Moscow in the quarantine of Iraq and to assure its friendly neutrality in the event of hostilities...
...Different outcomes of the Gulf crisis will produce different scenarios for the so-called peace process...
...As a result, tax evasion is rife—estimated at $3 billion a year, with the "black" economy running at 30 percent of GNP...
...Limiting its involvement in the West Bank proved to be in Jordan's interest...
...Quite simply, President Bush had no acceptable military option available in the opening days of the crisis...
...The West Bank population is not exactly pro-Hussein, being more loyal to the PI.O and having bad memories from 19 years of Jordanian rule...
...If the $10 billion debt were canceled and the $1.2 billion U.S...
...King Hussein had developed closer ties to Iraq as a counterweight to Israel and Syria but did not want to be swallowed by his patron...
...At best, Damascus might be deterred by the threat of force...
...Israel will be even less willing than in the past to enter negotiations with the Palestinians...
...To justify maintaining current levels of U.S...
...The source of this $10 billion debt can be traced to the mid-1970s, when the U.S...
...That would be good for Israel and good for the United States...
...The good news is that the trouble-making potential of Syrian radicalism might be banished for years to come—perhaps making Damascus open to a new relationship...
...Clearly a linkage is in the minds of the European and American leaders...
...The reality, however, was far different...
...I believe the Soviet public would welcome it as proof that the U.S.S.R...
...If the Soviet Union wants to prove its fitness to take part in the settlement of Middle Eastern issues now and in the future, it should be asked to become militarily involved against Iraq alongside UN-sanctioned forces, even if only in token numbers...
...Yet, because GNP grew 12 times during that period (also in real terms), defense spending fell from 14 to 8 percent of GNP...
...Thus, substantial military forces had to be moved to Saudi Arabia before the United States could accept the risks of using military force...
...Israel and the United States should cut a new deal: Cancel Israel's $10 billion debt to the U.S., eliminate the $1.2 billion in civilian aid and incorporate as much of the $1.8 billion in military credits as are justified from an American military viewpoint into the Pentagon's budget—the same source that finances the defenses of NATO, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines...
...No president, and certainly not one as careful as President Bush, would initiate hostilities without minimizing the potential threats to the free flow of oil from the Persian Gulf...
...Even if he had thought employment of military force necessary, the United States did not have the military muscle in the Persian Gulf to accomplish anything...
...initiatives against Iraq provide evidence to support this thesis...
...Suddenly, on August 2, the Jordanians found themselves faced with the threat of war and the certainty of economic catastrophe...
...A week later, speaking in the same place, George Bush followed up, contending that a settlement of the Iraq-Kuwait dispute could bring about a successful effort by "the peoples of the region to settle the conflicts that divide the Arabs from Israel...
...The money provides jobs for many people...
...The Pentagon relies on the Military Airlift Command and the Military Sealift Command for strategic mobility...
...The $1.8 billion military aid Israel receives is less than 5 percent of its gross national product (GNP), much smaller than most people suppose...
...contrary to popular belief in America, the Israeli economy would probably do better without relying on U.S...
...In the period just before the Gulf crisis, the American people's infatuation with Israel was declining rapidly...
...Even worse was the possibility of a center-right Shamir government attackingjordan...
...The latter scenario, which I want to discuss here, may seem unrealistic given the identification of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and other Palestinians—including, according to polls, the majority of Israeli Arabs—with Saddam Hussein and his extremist objectives and tactics directed against Israel...
...Having been the Arab stale most dependent on Soviet support, Syria was the Arab state with the most to lose when this support was largely withdrawn...
...A hint of a Soviet-American agreement to pressure Israel, after the Gulf crisis is over, emanated from the Setember 9 Bush-Gorbachev conference in Helsinki...
...In the past, Israel could always depend on two things regardless of the kaleidoscopically changing alliances that characterize the Arab world: The Syrian government would be hostile and Jordan's monarchy would be, harsh rhetoric notwithstanding, accommodating...
...The official explanation for this decision—that the Soviet public would not tolerate further military involvement in the Middle East after the Afghan fiasco—is not convincing...
...Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) leader Yasser Arafat, in Syria's view, had no right to do as he pleased or to operate independently...
...The $1.2 billion Israel receives in civilian aid, in effect, simply services Israel's $10 billion debt to the U.S.—a kind of yearly forgiveness of interest...
...Between 1955 and 1985 Taiwan's defense expenditures increased seven-fold in real terms...
...In these circumstances, Syria was never a reliable ally for the PLO...
...If the Israeli government stuck to the commitment it made five years ago to sell off the more than 192 enterprises it owns, worth an estimated $8 billion, it could easily pay even for its defense obligations...
...Since 1949, Syria has undergone a series of coups, upheavals and conspiracies until, in 1971, Air Force General Hafez al-Assad seized power...
...Far more important were the two dozen B-52 bombers based in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean...
...The death of 21 Palestinians on the Temple Mount has strengthened such feelings...
...Then a combination of American, Soviet and European emphasis on peace negotiations, especially if accompanied by a willingness of Palestinian spokespeople who live in the territories to meet and negotiate with Israelis, could force Shamir and the Likud party to the bargaining table...
...In effect, Syria blackmailed Arab oil producers to finance its Pan-Arab ambitions as well as the faltering Syrian economy...
...This change in the popular mood may further reduce the level of Israel's backing in the foreign policy establishment, many of whose members have privately expressed their discontent with the Jewish state...
...aid as a right to which they are entitled...
...In addition, geography conspired against us...
...He is already preoccupied with guaranteeing his own survival...
...Recent Gallup polls conducted by the Times-Mirror Corporation reveal the lowest level of preference for Israel over Arabs ever reported in opinion surveys (a near tie in May, although in August there was some upward movement toward preferring Israel...
...Living standards rose and no new taxes were imposed to finance national security...
...A few months earlier, the Amman government had been in near hysteria over the prospect of Soviet Jews displacing Palestinians and sending a flood of Palestinian refugees into Jordan...
...Iraq had a million men under arms, organized into more than 50 divisions and equipped with more than 5,000 batde tanks and 500 combat aircraft...
...the Palestinian problem was too important to be left to the Palestinians...
...A package of benefits for Jordan, paid for by Japan, Saudi Arabia and Western Europe, would be the best way to tighten the anti-Iraq embargo and at the same time to persuade Jordan to change course...
...Russian interest in the Middle East is nearly two centuries old...
...More important, they know that any Israel-Iraq war would be fought largely on Jordanian soil...
...Conversely, his van-quishment—at a minimum involving his complete withdrawal from Kuwait...
...If Israel were to become accepted as a normal regional power under the terms of a peace settlement, its interests would still conflict with Syria's...
...It is, therefore, of the greatest importance to him that Moscow cooperate against Iraq diplomatically and, if necessary, also militarily...
...While these arguments are sound, a free economy would not need this aid...
...Syria has always tried to distinguish itself by being the most radical of the Arab states, especially among those bordering Israel...
...Syria's main asset, in contrast to Egyptian power and Saudi wealth, is its capacity for mischief," Professor Fouad Ajami of Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies has correcdy suggested...
...A feeble Jordan makes a diplomatic settlement impossible...
...The editor of Tishrin, one of Syria's state-controlled newspapers, once issued this blunt warning to the PLO leader: "When Arafat sheds tears about independent decision making, he certainly wants to lend legitimacy [to] treasonous decisions....We will not tolerate freedom to commit treason or to sell out the cause...
...The withdrawal from Afghanistan and the acquiescence by Moscow to U.S...
...Arafat and his colleagues have put all their chips on Saddam...
...Does anyone in Congress or the State Department really believe Israel will ever be able to repay the loans used to purchase these arms...
...We cannot afford to repeat the mistake made with Iraq...
...Subsidies for food, farmers, health services, credit, industry, export insurance and transportation consume $3 billion annually...
...President Bush has staked his entire prestige on a favorable resolution of the current crisis: If Iraqi troops do not withdraw from Kuwait as he has repeatedly demanded, his standing at home and abroad will plummet...
...On the verge of the Kuwait crisis, Syria was in wretched shape...
...In short, just before the Gulf crisis, Syria was the biggest loser in the changing regional picture...
...22 MOMENT • DECEMBER 1990 Another factor that made Syria a firebrand in the Arab world was its Greater Syria concept, in which Damascus's rightful empire encompassed not only Israel, the West Bank and Gaza but also Lebanon and Jordan...
...Only if other countries come to recognize that a war may be necessary to resolve the crisis can the United States afford to take the military risks of war...
...Refusal to do so should serve Washington as a warning that Moscow may be playing a double game that serves only its own interests...
...Internationally, some fear, and others hope, that the Bush administration, working with the Soviets, has made commitments to its Arab allies to pressure Israel, once the Gulf crisis is over, to negotiate and give up most of the West Bank and Gaza...
...The outcome of the present stage rests mainly on whether Washington or Baghdad is perceived to be the winner in the confrontation over Kuwait...
...If Saddam Hussein falls—and Egypt, Syria and Israel all agree that this is the only outcome that will prevent Iraq from dominating the region—it is quite possible that the PLO will go down with him...
...British and Italian leaders subsequently joined this chorus...
...Its willingness to allow massive Jewish emigration over Arab objections reinforces it...
...Support for Iraq may be the PLO's last major blunder...
...To understand the extent to which the government controls Israel's economy, consider this: The public sector employs one third of the work force, and government apparatuses consume more than 75 percent of GNP...
...Now let's look at the military side of the aid picture...
...indeed the PLO will claim a share in the victory and Israel will continue to be the enemy that must be destroyed...
...Compare Israel's economic situation with that of Taiwan, which in 1965 asked the U.S...
...SEYMOUR MARTIN LIPSET If someone says he can tell you what the effect of the Gulf crisis will be on the prospects for peace between Israel and the Palestinians and neighboring Arab states, he (or she) is either a prophet or a fool...
...Transport of a single heavy division, which has 15,000 troops, perhaps 300 tanks and thousands of trucks, requires 1,500 C-141 and 270 C-5 flights...
...forces in the Persian Gulf must be sent by sea...
...The historical situation of Taiwan is similar to Israel's...
...policy to keep Moscow out of international diplomatic efforts in this region because of the well-grounded assumption that the Soviet Union is more interested in creating instability there than in bringing peace...
...Clearly any easing of relations between Syria and1 the United States, even in the context of the Gulf crisis, must be conditioned on breaking Syria's link with the world's most vicious terrorists...
...Fighter and bomber squadrons can be deployed more easily than ground troops...

Vol. 15 • December 1990 • No. 6


 
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