No Easy Task: Why Aren't We Thinking about the Terms Of a Peace Agreement?
PERSPECTIVE No Easy Task: Why Aren't We Thinking about the Terms Of a Peace Agreement? Now that Arafat has said the magic words—or at least the United States has interpreted what he said to be...
...It is simply inconceivable that the Arabs will accept a settlement that does not provide for some kind of Palestinian entity on the West Bank...
...And these issues are only the beginning...
...Israel doesn't need and doesn't want Gaza—but neither can it afford to have 600,000 unrestrained, radicalized Arabs on its doorstep free to carry out any terrorist activities against Israel they can get away with...
...Whether one gets to this question, however, depends on what one is willing to accept in a settlement...
...It is extraordinary how little media attention has focused on this, considering the gallons of ink devoted to such peripheral and relatively insignificant questions as whether Secretary Shultz should have issued a visa to Arafat and whether Arafat in fact said the magic words...
...And what about Gaza...
...No doubt, there are creative answers to the basic problems we have outlined...
...Now that Arafat has said the magic words—or at least the United States has interpreted what he said to be equivalent to the magic words—what next...
...It is disheartening, however, that so little attention has been devoted to developing the answers—neither by government, nor by the think tanks, nor by the media.—H.S...
...The first easy answer to this problem is international guarantees...
...Whatever form of independence the Palestinians ultimately attain, it will have to be attained gradually, in stages...
...We are willing to explore any possibility for the blessedness of peace...
...Who, for example, is going to live in this new Palestinian entity...
...What then will the issues be at the negotiating table...
...But, alas, no one seems to be talking about these issues...
...If, conversely, the Palestinians act responsibly, Israel can be expected to have more confidence in going to the next stage...
...we will not negotiate with the PLO...
...But there is another issue—another way that Israel can be assured that a Palestinian entity will not threaten Israel's security—and that involves the gradual implementation of any peace agreement over a very long period of time...
...Therefore no settlement is better than a settlement that Israel would be pressured to accept at the negotiating table...
...We look for the best even in our enemies—after all, they are only people like us...
...But we must also wake up the next morning and ask the hard questions...
...Then there are a few other minor problems—like the status of Jerusalem...
...In short, what is going to happen to the 400,000 or so Palestinians living in refugee camps outside the West Bank and Gaza...
...Once the agreement is violated, it will be difficult to apply sanctions...
...If you really mean that you will never return any of the territories and that you won't accept a Palestinian entity on the West Bank, then Shamir's strategy is probably wise...
...We Americans are naturally optimistic...
...But the question that is likely to be in the forefront arises from the paradox that, despite the worldwide attention to whether Arafat said the magic words, in fact his word means zip—nothing...
...They are worth something, but not much...
...Again, this provides some, but not adequate, assurance...
...Hardly...
...Another approach is to focus on the negotiating possibilities: What should Israel require at the negotiating table...
...Or will they be left to stagnate in Lebanon with nothing to do but plan future attacks on Israel...
...To some extent, we should be swept along -with the tide...
...Once these problems are solved, we then need to think about whether a separate peace with the Palestinians is feasible if, for example, Syria and Iraq insist on maintaining a state of war with Israel, committed to extinguishing its existence...
...Ifyou were an Israeli, would you trust your security to Arafat's word, regardless of how unequivocally he stated it...
...Are the inhabitants living in the refugee camps there automatically going to lead richer, more satisfying lives as soon as they are no longer ruled by Israelis...
...The question really is how to assure that Arafat, or the PLO, or whoever, will live up to the words they commit themselves to in a settlement agreement...
...One strategy is Shamir's: Nothing has changed...
...Are the Palestinians in Lebanon, for example, going to be trucked into the West Bank...
...we will not withdraw from the territories...
...If it doesn't work in the early stages— that is, if Israel's security is not fully respected—then Israel cannot be expected to move on to the next stage...
...Whether to react with euphoria or despair to the prospect of dealing with the PLO is difficult to decide if we don't know what we can expect from a settlement...
...And there is an independent value to the surge of hope that accompanies a dramatic reversal of policy...
...Anyone who wants to think seriously about a settlement—whether an outsider here in the United States, an Israeli, or the Israeli government—needs to address these issues...
...If you reject this position—and probably most American Jews do—then you must be prepared to accept a Palestinian entity on the West Bank...
...Two obvious questions that will have to be dealt with at the negotiating table involve (1) the boundaries of the Palestinian entity, and (2) its relationship, if any, to Jordan...
...There can be no meaningful settlement agreement without solving this problem...
...it would hardly be feasible to re-occupy the West Bank because of a violation of a demilitarization agreement...
...The point is, it is difficult to know whether a settlement is desirable without knowing its terms, without knowing how the obvious problems in any peace settlement are to be solved...
...But that is not the end of the discussion...
...To be effective, a demilitarization agreement must provide for Israel's ability to assure itself by its own forces on the ground that the area will be maintained as demilitarized...
...According to this school of thought, time is on Israel's side if only it has the will and the stamina to hold out...
...If demilitarization is simply an agrement by the Arabs, it is, again, nothing but words...
...It is now the next morning...
...The next answer is demilitarization...
...Only then can anyone decide whether a settlement is acceptable...
Vol. 14 • March 1989 • No. 2
