Dov Zakheim Is Wrong-On Every Score

Dine, Thomas A.

Dov Zakheim Is Wrong—On Every Score THOMAS A. DINE The Middle East is experiencing an arms buildup of unprecedented proportions. Over the last decade, 16 Arab states, excluding Egypt have invested...

...The result is an out-of-control regional arms race Instead of offering ways to put a halt to this escalation, Dov Zakheim advocates the continued sale of these lethal instruments to Arab governments by the United States...
...More recently, in 1978,60 F-15 fighters were sold to Saudi Arabia, with the stipulation that the aircraft could not be based at the Tabuk air base, 125 miles and six minutes' flying time from Israel, and that the planes would not be equipped with certain features which could be used on an attack mission against the Jewish state...
...Zakheim is quite right that a few Arab states have played positive roles in the peace process...
...arms sales to Egypt have not been challenged since Egypt made peace with Israel nearly a decade ago...
...Moreover, say people who support Zakheim's position, such sales promote Arab moderation, presumably in the American-sponsored peace process, as well as cooperation in achieving American strategic interests in the Gulf...
...commitment during a crisis, assurances that Britain and France cannot provide But what is the formula for translating U.S...
...weapons transfers to Arab states are questioned in detail...
...economy is certainly an admirable goal, but must not replace sound policy...
...When the definitive history of U.S.-Saudi relations is finally written, it * See "Missiles in the Middle East—Will They Upset the Military Balance...
...Preserve Israel's qualitative military superiority over its hostile neighbors...
...I agree with these principles: • Stop the runaway escalation of arms in the Middle East • Ensure that America's sophisticated military technology and advanced tactics are not shared with hostile powers...
...greater influence among Arab states and at the same time add to Israel's security...
...These sophisticated weapons have been purchased from a variety of sources, including the United States...
...An arms race clashes with and does not lead to a peace race...
...arms sales into such assurances...
...There are recent indications that the Saudi Air Force has landed its F-15s at Tabuk during training exercises and may indeed be capable of operating them from that base, although it will continue to avoid basing them there for fear of a preemptive Israeli attack In the final analysis, the best restriction on arms transfers to the Arab states that potentially threaten Israel is not to sell them in the first place The Administration has argued in the past that by providing the Arabs with arms, the U.S...
...economy income and jobs This reaction is often made without regard to the details of the sale in question...
...Over the last decade, 16 Arab states, excluding Egypt have invested $450 billion in weapons, ranging from the most advanced tanks and aircraft to surface-to-surface missiles and chemical arms...
...Zakheim would have us believe that the real interest of the United States is to engage in massive arms buildups, when, in fact stemming the steady flow of arms to a region that is already a tinderbox is central to the U.S...
...and its allies...
...Zakheim accuses the American pro-Israel community of "knee-jerk" opposition to arms to Arab states...
...But they haven't done so in the Philippines, Indochina, Afghanistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Central America and elsewhere...
...The policy of the majority of Congress and America's pro-Israel citizenry who challenge arms sales has always been one of careful discrimination, based on an all-encompassing examination of the nature of the weapons involved, the threat posed to Israel's security, and the impact on U.S...
...What are the AWACS or our naval presence in the Persian Gulf if not assurances and concrete statements of America's commitment to Gulf security...
...sales often turn out to be loose threads The classic example is Jordan's purchase of U.S.-made M-48 tanks during the mid-1960s...
...arms sales to Israel's enemies over the last ten years, only about a dozen have been actively challenged and fought—because these clashed with American values and contradicted professed American policy...
...While today the probability of Israel winning a military war against the Arabs remains high, it cannot win an economic war of attrition...
...Air Force, backed up by the Defense Department, White House, and the Senate and House Armed Services Committees, that objected to Saudi demands to buy the Strike Eagle...
...Approximately $24 billion of this was spent on American weapons, encompassing numerous arms packages...
...All proved to be wishful thinking Those countries are no closer to sitting down to talk peace with Israel than they were billions of dollars ago...
...For example, the recent multi-billion dollar sale of military equipment to Saudi Arabia by Great Britain included 60 Hawk jet trainer aircraft While the pundits editorialized about the loss of the Saudi market to British arms manufacturers, they overlooked the fact that the United States does not produce an equivalent jet trainer...
...It makes policy sense to oppose all arms sales to Arab states that are still in a state of war against Israel, but in practice very few U.S...
...But the United States has put no apparent limits on the quantities of spare parts and replacement munitions for countries like Saudi Arabia...
...Zakheim argues that sales of America's most sophisticated weapons technology actually serve Israel's interests because the United States is better able to place restrictions on the use of these weapons, whereas European weapons are sold with no strings attached...
...Nowhere does he put forward what he believes are reasonable weapons of war to sell Arab governments...
...October 1988.— Ed...
...resolution to support the Riyadh monarchy...
...Zakheim's proposition is flawed...
...The Congress has proceeded from the premise that U.S...
...During the height of the Persian Gulf tension in 1987, the U.S...
...Last fall, Senator Dennis DeConcini (D-AZ) seriously questioned the wisdom of supplying Bahrain with Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, but this was a function of the uniquely destabilizing nature of the Stinger missile...
...Navy is buying a version of the British Aerospace Hawk for its T-45A trainer program...
...King Hussein assured President Johnson that the tanks would not be stationed on the West Bank Nevertheless, in 1967 these vehicles were deployed across the Jordan River shortly before the outbreak of hostilities in June and subsequently were captured by the Israel Defense Forces...
...As a result, possible American threats of cutoffs are virtually meaningless.Zakheim suggests that Arab states such as Saudi Arabia seek American arms over those produced in Western Europe as an assurance of U.S...
...Navy is seeking to purchase new minesweepers from Italy...
...influence among Israel's enemies and further the cause of peace...
...Clearly, controls on military materiel that would pose a threat to Israel are desirable if such U.S...
...But Zakheim is irresponsible in his call for "differentiation...
...restrictions on the arms it exports...
...Now more than ever, the United States has an opportunity to slow down the conventional arms race in the Middle East The end of the Iran-Iraq war removes a justification that Arab regimes have used during the 1980s to go on a spending spree of arms acquisition...
...The United States is at a crossroada The advent of a new Administration, whether Republican or Democratic, presents Washington with a unique opportunity to initiate a serious dialogue among the arms exporting nations of the world, directed at restraining the current level of arms transfers...
...Factual inaccuracies, wishful thinking about an irrational and dangerous part of the world, and unclear vision as to what is occurring among Arab states and between Israel and its Arab enemies characterize his presentation...
...However, what the Saudis were actually looking for was the multi-role attack version of the aircraft, known as the F-15E "Strike Eagle...
...Strings" attached to U.S...
...Instead, the U.S...
...Zakheim's facts are wrong Saudi Arabia purchased the British Tornado aircraft in 1985, it is repeatedly asserted, because Congress opposed the sale of additional U.S...
...interests in the region...
...The recent past has demonstrated that promises made at the time of a sale are not always honored down the road...
...and "Lost arms sales mean lost American jobs" Aiding the U.S...
...The Soviets have at last begun to show some semblance of respon1 siblity in their arms export policy, curtailing deliveries of certain weapons systems to Syria...
...sales are to take place But just how effective are U.S...
...Operation Stanch" was responsible in part for reducing the flow of armaments to Iran, which in turn contributed to the Ayatollah's seeking a ceasefire Continued reduced oil prices have forced some Arab states to at least slow their military purchases...
...In 1981, however, extending-range fuel tanks for the F-15 were sold to the Saudis as part of the AWACS deal...
...Likewise, there is no American minesweeping vessel of the type Saudi Arabia is also buying from the British...
...The question Zakheim never addresses is how to halt this arms race and how to work for a peace process Zakheim has joined critics who have chided Congress and pro-Israel activists for opposing U.S...
...His argument is perverse and just plain wrong He leans heavily on the imperialistic notion that arms sales and transfers buy "influence" and "control" abroad...
...The debate today about arms sales policy, as framed by Zakheim, his colleagues in the arms industry, and certain advocates in government and the foreign policy community, is how to get a bigger slice of the profit pie...
...This fighter-bomber includes some of America's most sophisticated electronics technology and has only recently begun to enter service with the U.S...
...Instead of competing as a mercenary for new arms sales—a short-sighted counterproductive policy—the next president should work with our European allies and others to develop a framework for coordinating export policies to limit the sale of unnecessary, destructive and destabilizing weaponry...
...Zakheim ignores the enormous military and economic burden on Israel which results from massive arms sales to Arab nations Instead, he argues that such sales extend U.S...
...political and diplomatic objectives in the region...
...Congress felt so strongly about this issue it banned further exports of Stingers to the Gulf region...
...should be printed on litmus paper...
...This was the promise of Hawk missiles to Jordan in 1975, F-15s to Saudi Arabia in 1978, AWACS to Saudi Arabia in 1981, and a rash of other sales before and since...
...He is wrong however, in stating that the pro-Israel community does not employ a "process of differentiation," distinguishing between peaceful and belligerent Arab states...
...In fact of the billions of dollars in military hardware and of the hundreds of individual U.S...
...This logic, while appealing, is seriously flawed...
...Only a fraction of those sales were challenged by Israel's supporters, primarily because they were judged to be of particular danger to Israel's security...
...Nor have Israel's supporters ever actively sought to counter U.S...
...The talking points read: "If we don't sell them the weapons, they will buy somewhere else...
...F-15s...
...arms sales at the same time as other nations are providing weapons to Arab states, creating the impression that this opposition is costing the U.S...
...However, this did not prevent the Saudis from successfully hiding from the United States for two years the fact that they bought and deployed CSS-2 intermediate-range ballistic missiles from the Chinese Now a more dangerous element has been added to the regional arms race—ballistic missiles.* It has been argued that one form of American leverage is the threat of cutting off the supply of spare parts and munitions if U.S.-supplied weapons are misused, such as in an attack on Israel...
...Each new Saudi request for American arms is portrayed as a litmus test of U.S...
...This, he says, will gain the U.S...
...In fact, the U.S...
...spent $2 million daily to protect Gulf security and safe passage through its waterways At what point will the Saudis be satisfied that the United States has "proved its friendship...
...maintains a degree of access and is able to monitor developments in these countries...
...Since 1978, the United States has sold Saudi Arabia roughly $31.5 billion in military goods and services, according to the Pentagon's Defense Security Assistance Agency...
...arms transfer policy in the Middle East must be based on a set of fundamental principles, which cannot be altered to accommodate short-term political objectives...
...Air Force It is the U.S...
...Peyond this, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Arab nations have articulated a policy of diversifying arms suppliers, which Zak-heim fails to mention...
...and • Encourage Arab states to demonstrate a cooperative attitude toward U.S...
...Is this what Zakheim calls a "standstill" of arms transfers...
...military sales to Morocco and Oman, nations which have supported efforts toward peace and dialogue with Israel...
...Moreover, Zakheim is out of touch with American values: He places commercial concerns above our moral democratic and strategic dimensions that are our country's real strengths—and interests...
...It is disingenuous to blame "the Congress" for denying the Saudis the F-15E And the Saudis would have bought Tornados in any case...

Vol. 13 • November 1988 • No. 8


 
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