A Palestinian State: Thinking the Unthinkable: Don't Buy It
ELAZAR, DANIEL J.
TWO VIEWS A PALESTINEAN STATE Thinking the Unthinkable Don't Buy It says Daniel Elazar Mark Heller makes the best possible rational case for a Palestinian state, but it is a case that leaves...
...The people living in these territories would be citizens of the state of their choice...
...Few Israelis have any objection to that Arab state being Palestinian...
...In 1948, they could have had their own state in nearly half the territory of western Palestine...
...Nevertheless, without circumscribing the civil liberties of its citizens to such a degree that no self-respecting western government would do so, there is no way that the Irish Republic can totally suppress the IRA or keep it from using its territory as a base...
...Those rules make it impossible to accept any Arab agreement involving the concession of territory believed to be rightfully Arab as more than a temporary expedient, to be abandoned as soon as it seems possible to reclaim additional territory...
...Those rules, however, are not those that western political leaders would want to live by...
...Perhaps most worrisome is what to do about the irreconcilables in a state, only its borders...
...They could shoot missiles at airplanes landing at Ben-Gurion Airport about three miles from the Green Line, or, for that matter, rockets at the heart of Tel Aviv, another few miles away...
...He suggests that both the pleasures and the responsibilities of statehood would preoccupy and ultimately deter them from risking what they have...
...I leave it to the reader to judge whether giving up that depth is prudent...
...Yet no Palestinians came forward, even with a proposal like Heller's...
...Those who advocate a Palestinian state are right about several things...
...If an internal Palestinian power struggle develops, scoring points against Israel will most likely become one of its principal features...
...In any Palestinian state, there would be a far greater number of irreconcilables dissatisfied with the settlement, wanting to continue the struggle...
...Given their experiences between 1948 and 1967, we can hardly blame them...
...This surprises many people otherwise sympathetic to Palestinian needs...
...This would be more feasible but still difficult Two-unit confederations are not notably successful because all conflicts tend to be turned into zero-sum games: when one side wins, the other side loses and there are no easy ways to diffuse conflicts or to create different coalitions around different issues, as can occur in multi-state confederations The best possible solution would be two states Israel, a Jewish state, and Jordan, a Palestinian state The two states would be as separate as possible, but would share rule in a confederal way over the territories in between (the West Bank and Gaza...
...Nor can any solution be set in motion unilaterally by Israel alone As Heller notes, unilateral Israeli withdrawal may sound nice, but it is no way to achieve the minimum guarantees that even those reasonable people who would accept a separate Palestinian state believe Israel requires...
...This indeed is quite likely, but there is no reason to believe this internal Palestinian dissension will distract them from making trouble for Israel...
...Yasir Arafat claimed direct responsibility for launching these attacks...
...For most Israelis, the conditions Heller lists are the minimum necessary for any kind of territorial concessions, much less a separate Palestinian state...
...This has been Israel's problem with regard to the neighboring Arab states...
...Once Jordan is in the picture, then we can negotiate with the Palestinians about the division of the land...
...A state :annot go to war over every terrorist incident...
...First and foremost however, any solution that will be acceptable to Israel cannot be based on an expectation that Israel's negotiating partner will thereafter act rationally and reasonably...
...All the Israeli coastal areas and the Jerusalem area—which is where six out of seven Israelis live—would be in the gunsight of individual terrorists...
...There would be very little sentiment even among the most forthcoming Israelis to concede those territories to a Palestinian state...
...Up to and including March 1988, the Palestinians have consistently rejected all opportunities to reach a reasonable settlement...
...Israel need not acquiesce to two Palestinian states, one east of the Jordan and another west of the Jordan, in a land promised to it not only by God according to the Bible but by mandate according to the League of Nations, especially since the PLO makes no secret of its grand plan to take over the existing states on both banks of the Jordan and to consolidate them into one Palestinian whole...
...Early in 1985, Israelis were beginning to consider seriously the possibility of dealing with the PLO, which for several months had presented itself as having effectively renounced terrorism, even if unwilling to say so...
...Heller, and others, have suggested that the establishment of a Palestinian state would provoke internal troubles for the new state as the local leaders confronted the diaspora PLO leadership that would seek to move into a position of power...
...By the time we begin to add up those needs, we begin 48 MOMENT*SEPTEMBER 1988 An Israel/Palestine Federal Solution or a Commonwealth: Bazar's Alternatives for the West Bank Total separation of the area west of the Jordan River may be impossible under present circumstances The parts are too intertwined to separate What we must pursue is not a separation on terms threatening to Israel but a solution that provides for maximum feasible separation and also provides for the links that are necessary for two peoples to live together in the same land...
...Why Israelis must put forward proposals for a separate Palestinian state when authoritative Palestinians do not, remains a puzzle...
...They simply kept repeating intensify that conflict...
...One is that the Palestinians do need some kind of territorial political entity to satisfy their legitimate group aspirations...
...Heller suggests that continuing to allow Arabs to work in Israel will help matters...
...Moreover, the Irish Republican Army is down to a tiny hard core of irregulars, what I call irreconcilables...
...I, and many other Israelis, remember when to walk through the fields of Netanya at night was to risk being murdered by terrorists who had come across the border from the area now full of Israeli suburban settlements...
...Those guarantees must be negotiated with clear terms, as well as clear means of enforcement Israel can and should suggest options and even suggest alternatives...
...Unfortunately, such a total withdrawal would, from the first moment, endanger Israel's security...
...We met privately with a personal representative of Yasir Arafat, at Arafat's initiative...
...What is significant is that neither the PLO nor any other influential Palestinian body has done so—they are still holding out for their maximalist position, the destruction of Israel...
...These other possibilities (outlined in the above box) also deal with the issue of Israeli settlements across the Green Line, which Heller ignores...
...as soon as he got near the top, he was fated to slip and fall, so the rock rolled back down...
...The most we can do is to decide that if Hussein cannot deliver as a partner for peace, then Israel no longer needs to support him...
...In presenting the best possible case for Israel's conceding a Palestinian state, Heller suggests that unless we try it we will never know...
...But that is one of the reasons why many of us object to such a separate state in the first place...
...Indeed, it is not sensible to retaliate for everything...
...On the other hand, it is also true that Israeli security requires an Israeli presence in all the territories west of the Jordan River...
...Its population is approximately 70 percent Palestinian, with Palestinians dominating the economy and occupying many of the key positions in the Jordanian government, outside of the army...
...Basically the Palestinian community can be divided into five groups politically: (1) the old elites, (2) the old left, identified with the Communist party, (3) PLO supporters, (4) the fundamentalists, and (5) the remaining, relatively apolitical working and middle classes...
...In other words, Israel would be acquiescing in a situation that could put it in an even more Sisyphean position than it is in now...
...Indeed, most Israelis believe justice requires that the state be Palestinian...
...All this is the minimum that realistic Israelis who are prepared to accept a Palestinian state would require...
...It may very well be that both sides will be tempted to seek a way out of their troubles through provoking conflict with Israel, especially once their statehood is guaranteed by the world community...
...When Pol Pot took over Cambodia, he did not become responsible—he simply used the power of the state to commit genocide on his own people...
...But that is a question for the Arabs to answer...
...In fact, given the talents, energy and education of the Palestinians, it would be far from last among the Arab states...
...Students of Arab politics, however, understand that this particular way of relating to one another is characteristic of Arab political entities from Bedouin tribes to the Arab summit and that there are indeed rules to the game...
...Borders between states can be readjusted...
...It is true that people can change under appropriate circumstances, but we have all too many examples of peoples for whom statehood has not brought moderation, but simply more power to do mischief...
...Even assuming that the scattered highland settlements are expendable—that they could be evacuated or removed either as part of a peace agreement or through natural processes once the territory is ceded to a Palestinian state—Israel is not likely to evacuate Jerusalem neighborhoods or western Samaria under any circumstances...
...A better solution would be a looser federal connection in the form of a confederation in which two substantially independent states would share certain common institutions to handle only those tasks that they must undertake together...
...Most of the Palestinians west of the river do not want to be ruled again by the Hashemite kingdom...
...But in our world states themselves are sacrosanct...
...Should we then come forward with other options ever more favorable to the Palestinians...
...Sone of us are prepared to go back *i_____i_______• They could shoot missiles at airplanes landing at Ben-Gurion Airport about three miles from the Green Line or, for that matter, rockets at the heart of Tel Aviv, another few miles away...
...Many have concluded that politically the Palestinians are impossible...
...Nearly 200,000 Jews now live in the West Bank...
...We all know the result...
...This arrangement could be instituted as either a final or an interim one, but it must be firmly agreed that the arrangement is unchangeable except by mutual consent Israel could maintain the arrangement through its monopoly of military power, although its army would be removed physically from Palestinian territory, to be deployed only when, as and if necessary...
...TWO VIEWS A PALESTINEAN STATE Thinking the Unthinkable Don't Buy It says Daniel Elazar Mark Heller makes the best possible rational case for a Palestinian state, but it is a case that leaves too many unanswered—and unanswerable—questions...
...Even among those who recommend that Israel accept the establishment of a separate Palestinian state, it is generally agreed that initiative must come from the Palestinians—and it has not...
...Unless Israel has sufficient depth to contain those losses, it will be destroyed...
...While Israel should be willing to take risks for peace, they must be prudent risks...
...But this is not a laboratory experiment...
...As even Heller's plan of a fully independent state in the West Bank and Gaza suggests, there must be close, cooperative connections between the political entities in Israel/Palestine Moreover, those connections must be institutionalized...
...This willingness peaked in March 1988...
...In addition, Jews should have a right to settle in all parts oiEretz Tisrael...
...Advocates of a Palestinian state would require a comprehensive peace that would include Arab states' economic support for the new Palestinian state and, again quoting Heller, would require "closing down refugee camps and disbanding UNRWA" coupled with "the military neutrality of the Palestinian state, . . . limitations on the size, equipment and deployment of Palestinian military forces, consistent with internal security needs, as well as procedures for verification, monitoring and early warning...
...That is at least as much a feature of historical experience as Heller's scenario...
...In an informal meeting around the dinner table, some five hours in length and conducted entirely in Hebrew, Arafat's representative, other Palestinians, and the Israelis engaged in what is usually referred to as a "full and frank discussion...
...But there can be no solution based on two entirely separate states—one Jewish and one Arab—apart from Jordan...
...Heller would also require "a special regime for Jerusalem" and probably a transitional period for staged withdrawal of Israeli forces...
...It is unlikely that the Palestinian government would have either the will or the wherewithal to control these irreconcilables, especially if it were preoccupied with an internal power struggle that could well lead to civil war (as it did under similar circumstances in Ireland immediately after independence in the 1920s...
...when one side retaliates it only provokes counter actions...
...So many non-viable states have been established with the assistance, or under the protection, of one or another of the world's larger powers that the point has become moot as long as there is some other state or group of states around to provide needed assistance...
...Fortunately, they were all intercepted by the Israeli navy just as the terrorists were about to land in rubber boats...
...Today their spokesmen continue to proclaim that maximalist position...
...On the other hand, the Hashemite dynasty will not last forever...
...The often bewildering shifts in relationships among Arab states and political leaders appear to most westerners to be simply a chaotic melange of shifting alliances and seeming betrayals...
...Still others are scattered throughout the Judean and Samarian highlands...
...To suggest that moderation will occur among the Palestinians is nothing more than a pious hope at this point...
...Sisyphus, the mythic Greek figure, was condemned by the gods to roll a rock up a hill...
...True, the Israeli army can retaliate...
...Informal border raids by both sides are hardly the answer...
...At this point despite the conventional wisdom, the Palestinians should make the first move—even if it is a move unacceptable to Israel in every respect other than a willingness to recognize that Israel is here to stay.—D...
...However, it is precisely the lack of economic viability and limited opportunity for improvement that is likely to encourage some segment of an increasingly frustrated population to seek nationalist and irredentist solutions...
...Indeed, most Israelis who would accept a Palestinian state call for its total demilitarization...
...All this suggests possibilities other than a separate Palestinian state that need to be considered and which, in the long run, are more likely to remaining 40 percent live along the western border of Samaria...
...Had any Palestinian leader done so, even those Israeli authorities reluctant to negotiate would have had to respond...
...we can try to reach an accommodation that will be far from ideal for both sides but as fair as possible under the circumstances...
...Heller is probably correct when he suggests that the economic viability of the Palestinian state is not the issue...
...This does not mean that territorial compromise would not be possible if the territories heavily populated with Palestinians were attached to Jordan...
...we can negotiate about how the territory west of the river will be used...
...That ended Israeli openness on the subject of dealing with the PLO...
...This becomes even clearer when we add the necessary security guarantees and means of inspection and monitoring...
...Thus, there are a number of possible solutions other than a separate Palestinian state west of the Jordan...
...fii...
...balances of power can change...
...Moreover, it would be better for Israel if it were separated from the vast majority of Palestinians, who will never be happy as a minority living in a Jewish state and who, if they become a majority, would certainly change the Jewish character of the state...
...In this way, the Palestinians west of the river would be part of their own state, yet all the territory they live in would not be under their exclusive control...
...More than that, the arrival of the diaspora PLO would probably lead to an alliance between the old elites and the apolitical working and middle classes against it, which would turn the struggle into a three-way affair, complete with assassination and terror, as has been the Palestinian Arabs' habit in the that they demanded all of Palestine, including Haifa and Tel Aviv...
...At least all of those capitals have been at some distance from Israel proper...
...One which does not require Jordanian involvement would be to establish one or two Palestinian entities (West Bank and Gaza, together or separately)—let us call such an entity a commonwealth—within boundaries that would protect Israeli security while giving Palestinians a territory clearly their own, linked to Israel, similar to the relationship between Puerto Rico and the United States or Kashmir and India...
...If that were the case, even in the event of another war and the necessity of further boundary adjustments, the possibility for negotiation would remain because Israel would not have to challenge the very existence of a We have all too many examples of peoples for whom statehood has not brought moderation, but simply more power to do mischief...
...No Israeli military victory can be more than partial, since Israel cannot occupy Arab capitals and hold them until the Arabs sue for peace...
...It is an irrevocable step...
...Hence Israel has always had to withdraw with an interim agreement or to make peace under unfavorable terms, as with Egypt...
...Within their territory the Palestinians would establish their own government for all domestic purposes, fly their own flag and have other symbols of statehood...
...Instead, those Palestinians who spoke out did so only to call for the destruction of Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian state in all of "Palestine...
...provide guarantees Israel needs...
...Approximately 60 percent of these Jews live in the new neighborhoods of Jerusalem built across the Green Line since 1967...
...Yet they have always insisted on the maximalist position—and they have always lost...
...Three months into the intifada, the world was waiting for them to show some sign that they were willing to negotiate...
...A Palestinian state next door would bring that Sisyphean situation into Israel's backyard...
...But we have learned from experience what the limits of retaliation are...
...Twice in the last three years they have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory...
...he understands that it is impossible to have a completely demilitarized state...
...At the very least, that fight would continue after the establishment of a Palestinian state...
...on the other hand, people zan be killed by any individual terrorist...
...They would be given self-rule to the extent that each city, town or rural area would be attached to one of the states for municipal purposes through an appropriate constitutional arrangement Those functions that must be handled jointly, such as currency and economic regulations, land and water policy, and security, would be handled by a joint council in which local residents would be fully represented...
...In 1976, the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, which I head, identified 11 possible federal options, at the request of then defense minister Shimon Peres, for the parties to the conflict to consider...
...If the Palestinians—even the PLO—would come forward and offer the kind of arrangement that Heller proposes, perhaps then Israel would be confronted with the necessity to respond...
...The Palestinians would not give up their claims to those territories and the Israelis would not leave them—for good reason...
...To do this on a daily basis would be a hardship and added cost for everyone...
...He admits the risks, but offers reasonable-sounding arguments for why those risks are worth taking...
...This is feasible (although it will be opposed by some), but it will also have to be accompanied by appropriate economic links in other spheres, especially in connection with trade, currency controls, worker benefits and the like...
...As Heller admits, nothing in the past behavior of the Palestinians suggests that they are likely to respond rationally—to give us a measured response for our measured proposal...
...Our conclusion then, as now, is that any formal Israel/Palestine federation in which there would be two federated states under one common government would probably have to be ruled out since neither people wants to be in that close a political relationship with the other...
...But what if no one comes forward to negotiate...
...It is hard to say that doubling the seven miles between the Mediterranean Sea and the old Green Line near Netanya would create strategic depth, but at least it would be fifteen rather than seven miles...
...A month later, in April 1985, Palestinian terrorists attempted a series of attacks on the Tel Aviv area from the sea...
...The Irish Republic has a peaceful, stable government with no desire to conduct a war with Britain or even with the Protestants of Northern Ireland, much as it may sympathize with the Catholics in that unfortunate province...
...Had the Palestinian Arabs _ embraced less than a maximalist position on any number of occasions between 1917 and 1947, they could have had their Palestinian state—an even larger state than Heller proposes to offer them...
...We have seen how Israel suffered losses whenever it was surprised, as in 1973 and in 1987...
...If, for the moment neither seems likely, there are still other possibilities...
...Look at Ireland today...
...Heller is more realistic...
...Is there any other solution that can be proposed...
...More Palestinians live in Jordan than in the West Bank and Gaza...
...As a reasonable man, Heller tries to suggest why the Palestinians are likely to be constrained from taking advantage of their new position...
...Jordan, which occupies the eastern third of the historic land of Israel/Palestine also has to be considered...
...This, too, suggests that some other solution must be sought, even by those who want to provide the maximum possible self-determination for Palestinian Arabs...
...The old elites and the old left are in decline and the apolitical working and middle classes are frightened into silence, leaving the PLO and the fundamentalists fighting each other for control...
...And this happened again and again...
...Advocates of a Palestinian state try to protect Israel against such a situation by requiring that the establishment of such a state would have to be preceded by, in Heller's words, "an explicit, unambiguous Palestinian commitment to peace and to the renunciation of all further claims against Israel . . . by . . . the PLO . . . and [this must] have active ratification by other Arab states...
...There's the rub in Heller's argument...
...Given what we know about religious fundamentalism, of which Muslim fundamentalism seems to be the most extreme in its willingness to engage in political violence to gain power, the establishment of a Palestinian state, offering something very concrete to control, would Why must Israelis put forward proposals for a separate Palestinian state when authoritative Palestinians do not...
...Why, then, should we conclude that their maximalist statements are only window dressing or that they really are prepared, in their heart of hearts, to compromise— something they would never do in the past when the opportunity was offered...
...In March 1985,1 personally participated in a meeting sponsored by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation at their headquarters near Bonn, Germany, along with several important members of the Knesset and other Israeli academics and political activists...
...This solution is, of course, contingent either upon a Palestinian rapprochement with King Hussein or a change in regime east of the Jordan River...
...Two generations ago, many German conservatives supported Hitler, arguing that once he gained power, the responsibility of office would moderate his radicalism...
...Jnce a state is established there is no way back...
...Should a Palestinian state be established and admitted to the United Nations—which it would be immediately—even if it were to provoke Israel into a war in which once again the Israel Defense Forces would be successful, Israel would certainly have to withdraw and let the state of Palestine continue to exist, thus making any military victory a political impossibility...
...Heller puts all of Israel's eggs in the basket of the Palestinians' peaceful intentions...
...Israelis have long since agreed, even if somewhat reluctantly, that the land that was once Palestine (including the land east of the river) should be partitioned between a Jewish state and an Arab state...
...The commonwealth would rely on Israel for matters of defense and foreign affairs, except for cultural relationships with the Arab world...
...Moreover, they would have a level of weaponry that so far has not been available to the IRA...
...Instead, Israel's concessions are viewed by them as signs of weakness, not efforts at rapprochement...
...If Israel were to give back all the territories, there is some question as to whether there would be enough ground for IDF training maneuvers, much less room to station forces close enough to the critical points where they would be needed in case of attack in order to block the first assaults on Israel's population centers...
...Most of the to move away from the idea of a sovereign Palestinian state into something like a confederation...
...There is no sign of that from their past behavior...
...Heller makes it clear that the establishment of a Palestinian state would require Israel to withdraw from essentially all the territories it captured in 1967 on the grounds that no truncated West Bank Palestinian state can possibly satisfy the aspirations of the Palestinian Arabs...
...At no time, even at this informal, off-the-record session, was a proposal presented that could offer an accommodation to Israel's needs...
...More recently, the intifada brought in its wake an Israeli desire to find some Palestinians to talk to, at the price of having to trade territories for peace...
...The Arabs will feel demeaned and the Israelis will feel harassed...
...The most feasible way to accomplish this is through a federal solution tailored to the special situation in which the Israelis and Palestinians find themselves on the West Bank...
...That, in itself, would probably make the establishment of a separate Palestinian state impossible...
...Israel would not only have to give up all chances of achieving strategic depth, but even minimum defensive positions...
...The conversation was a frustrating one, especially for the majority of the Israelis present who were clearly in the dovish camp because the Palestinians' bottom line always was that if the PLO leadership did recognize Israel and get negotiations started, those leaders who did so would be assassinated by extremists, thus making any deal with moderates worthless...
...If there are acts of terrorism by the irreconcilables, workers crossing the borders will have to be subject to careful search and screening similar SEPTEMBER 1988»MOMENT 49 to what is now done at the Jordan River crossings...
...And since everybody gets surprised at one time or another, Israel must never lack that depth...
Vol. 13 • September 1988 • No. 6
