Sorting Out the Issues
PERSPECTIVE Sorting Out the Issues Of course, there may be no settlement for another 20 years—or generations— until (1) we know the results of an Arab-Israeli missile war with nuclear warheads, or...
...A middle-ground settlement must necessarily be extremely painful for both sides, but the issues offer such a rich ground for creative solutions that we cannot, in good conscience, pass up the opportunity to try, knowing full well that the odds are against reaching a settlement and despite the risks involved...
...So even failure to reach a settlement would redound to Israel's benefit...
...And when we talk about sitting down, we're talking about the Shultz plan, which is—or was—the only game in town...
...Obviously no Arab would agree to such a Jewish position and no Jew would agree to such an Arab position...
...The right prefers the status quo, with all its risks and uncertainties...
...But if a settlement does emerge out of the current crisis, the outlines of that settlement are, paradoxically, very easy to predict...
...Prime Minister Shamir doesn't want an international conference, not because Israel will be pressured into retreating beyond the Green Line or agreeing to an Arab army on the West Bank, but because the best settlement he could conceivably get—a middle-ground settlement—would be, in his view, worse than the status quo...
...the Arabs living there can live in any of 22 Arab states, including a Palestinian state called Jordan...
...But this analysis also helps us understand what the debate on the Jewish side is all about...
...PERSPECTIVE Sorting Out the Issues Of course, there may be no settlement for another 20 years—or generations— until (1) we know the results of an Arab-Israeli missile war with nuclear warheads, or (2) the Arabs leave the West Bank, or (3) the Arabs learn to accept Israeli rule in an autonomous canton, or (4) who knows what...
...There is a serious asymmetry, however: The Jews—in Israel and outside— are engaged in an intense, robust debate about whether a middle-ground compromise would, though risky, be acceptable...
...That is the real basis for his resistance...
...This is not to say there are no other issues, but if these two matters are agreed upon, the others (Gaza, even Jerusalem and the Golan Heights) will, not without pain, begin to fall into place...
...Any settlement at the present time must contain two basic elements: (1) A Palestinian entity on the West Bank, either as an independent state or in confederation with Jordan...
...It is easy to predict that these two elements would be the basis of a settlement because it is inconceivable that either side would go further (if that far...
...This does not deny the risks in the Shultz initiative, but it's better than the status quo...
...H.S...
...Thus, nothing until the uprising is put down...
...If this cannot be arranged, they want at least the right to return to Jaffa, Haifa, Ramie and West Jerusalem, and, as they say, to live together peacefully in a democratic, bi-national state...
...it would again hold the high moral ground...
...If the Arabs respond only with radical demands, the world would then know where the blame lay...
...to say Israel will only sit down with Jordan, dragging acceptable Palestinians in tow, is to reject negotiations at the present time...
...The Arabs would really like the Jews to leave altogether...
...And this leaves only the middle-ground outlined above as a possibility...
...In short, Israel's security can be reasonably assured by other means, although absolute security can never be assured either by such arrangements or by the status quo...
...If they don't want this, they can live in an Israeli West Bank and autonomously manage their own local affairs as long as this doesn't involve anti-Israel politics...
...Certainly, if Israel indicated its willingness to accept a middle-ground settlement, world pressure should then be on the Palestinians to make an appropriately conciliatory response to the Israeli move...
...I believe most American Jews want Israel to go down this road—to explore, to see what can happen from sitting down...
...The left, while hardly approving of stone-throwing or Molotov cocktails," is willing to concede that the uprising has focused worldwide attention on the problem and, in fact, created an opportunity for resolution that did not previously exist...
...Land and security are, to a large extent, independent...
...2) The West Bank must be demilitarized and other arrangements and guarantees established to assure Israel's security (plus a peace agreement...
...That is why it is easy to predict the elements of a settlement, if one emerges in the short term...
...Although some would disagree, every inch of West Bank land given to the Palestinians does not deprive Israel of an inch of security...
...One helpful element that weighs in favor of taking the risks involved in PERSPECTIVE continuedfrom page 6 entering negotiations in an effort to reach a middle-ground settlement: The two basic elements of a middle-ground settlement—land and security— are not in conflict...
...The left wants to test the Palestinians—to see whether, if Israel is agreeable to a middle-ground settlement, the Palestinians would respond in kind...
...Obviously, a middle-ground settlement involves risks...
...Which helps to explain why—even though the outlines of the only possible settlement are easy to discern—it remains very doubtful that the parties will get there...
...The core interests of both parties can be satisfied...
...Remember, he even opposed the Camp David accords...
...after all, it's historically part of Eretz Yisrael, the Promised Land, biblical Israel...
...Many Jews in Israel, on the other hand, would like to retain the West Bank forever...
...No agreement is possible from these premises...
...But so does the status quo...
...We cannot at this moment in history conclude a priori that it is impossible to assure Israel's security with a Palestinian entity established on the West Bank...
...In the Arab camp, there is not only no debate, but there is no moderate Arab voice urging the Palestinians to accept what for them too must be a painful compromise...
...By expressing its willingness to move to a middle-ground compromise—and this is what agreement to the Shultz initiative means—Israel just might provide the catalyst that would lead to the emergence of a responsible moderate Palestinian leadership...
...Another factor that accounts in part for Israel's failure to move forward at this time: many Israelis strongly believe the Palestinians should not be "rewarded" for their violence...
...A dollar to one does not necessarily deprive the other of a dollar...
...In the end, it's a question of weighing risks, guessing at uncertainties...
...This is because the limits of give on either side are very clear...
...The left (for lack of a better term) wants to try to reach this middle-ground compromise...
Vol. 13 • June 1988 • No. 4
