A Futurist Looks at the Jewish Future
SINGER, MAX
A FUTURIST LOOKS AT THE JEWISH FUTURE MAX SINGER Generally when we think of the future of Judaism we think of growing to as many as 5 to 10 million Jews in Israel, 5 to 10 million Jews in the...
...Pride is not the only basis for thinking that we have a product good enough to gain a serious share of the market...
...we need not assume that the future will be like the recent past rather than like our more distant past...
...And the quality of the lives of many Jews today does not reflect the beauty and strength that Judaism can provide— and that we see it providing today to increasing numbers of Jewish families...
...But already, ruthless power determines much less than it used to, and, more important, we Jews had much more power to defend ourselves than we have had during most of the last 2,000 years...
...Therefore it is possible that our survival as Jews, and our success in accomplishing the task that Jews were given to do, both depend on the same thing—the quality and character of the Jewish lives we live...
...Before looking at the implications of these changes for Judaism, we should note one more change...
...The facts of future demography are clear In a century or so there will be about 10 billion people in the world—at least 8 billion of whom will be wealthy by historic standards...
...Certain essential characteristics of the modern world, such as urbanization and continuous change, create a strong need for faith, transcendence, commitment, belonging, structure, values, guidance and perspective...
...In most of the second half of the nearly 4,000 years of our Jewish history, we have had to be fearful of the idea of large numbers of people converting to Judaism...
...One should not say that Israel "is" anything...
...Nearly two millennia of vulnerability and persecution have made us so defensive in our thinking that we cannot imagine large numbers of conversions to Judaism—it seems, well, unjewish...
...If Diaspora Judaism has no mission and no future—if Judaism is not giving Diaspora Jews a visibly better life, in terms of fundamental values (as it does for many today)—then it seems to me likely that in a rich, free world assimilation will shrivel or destroy Diaspora Judaism, too...
...Our third chance to control our own independent state comes at just the point in the world's development when our example might lead hundreds of millions of people to Torah and to join our people...
...It is also an expression of idealism that can attract and harness the determination of young people to improve on their parents' world with methods that build on rather than destroy what has been created before...
...The actors are about to come on stage m great numbers for the first time What are we if we do not believe that we can live so that a fair share of them will choose our way' 'fii...
...But we can more easily surmount our weaknesses if we use a longer time perspective and realize the character of our task, the strength we bring to it, and the opportunity we have at this unique point in human and Jewish history According to the traditional view, Judaism was created to serve as a witness to people of how God hopes that they will choose to live The next century or so will see eight billion educated wealthy people added to the world—more people with the potential to choose a religious identity than there have been in all history To me all this says that Judaism up to now has all been prologue, and that the real show is about to begin...
...This view of future Jewish possibilities tells us something about our role as Jews today...
...In fact, it will probably double to about 10 billion people before it more or less stabilizes in a century or so.* But the bigger and less appreciated change will be in the character of the future population...
...I don't believe that Jewish proselytizing, or missionary work, is necessary to bring about such a Jewish future...
...It is an extraordinarily wise and sensitive system for making the world better by helping people to be good...
...Judaism's relentless realism, devotion to human life, commitment to the past, to law, and to reason, all work to harness the idealism that is at the heart of Judaism—to make it more effective and less dangerous...
...If classic Judaism represents a superior way of life and/or the way God wants people to live, why shouldn't tens or hundreds of millions of people choose to become Jews...
...Everyone knows that world population is growing rapidly...
...Second, since most people will be living what must be considered, in historic terms, wealthy lives,** they will not be completely dominated * The facts about the future presented here are taken from my book, Passage to a Human World The Dynamics of Creating Global Wealth, by Max Singer with ^ foreword by Irving Knstol (Indianapolis, Ind Hudson Institute, 1987) References and evidence are given there ** We define a country as "wealthy" if it has enough resources to provide decent human lives for most of its people This includes education, as well as living conditions that are good enough so that people live most of their natural life span (According to this definition there were no wealthy countries before this century ) by survival demands...
...But the amount of change that even quite dissatisfied Jews believe to be necessary is much smaller than the change in Judaism following the destruction of our Temple and our state nearly 2,000 years ago...
...Second, success and self-confidence always attract people...
...There is reason to believe that this second trend may accelerate as modernity—that is, wealth and change—spreads through the world...
...That is, even if there are 30 million Jews filling our ancient borders, if there is not a much larger number of Jews living outside of Israel we will have failed to achieve our task of living lives that witness God's hope for the peoples of the world Many scenarios for the year 2200 are possible...
...The Judaism of the Temple, of the millennium between Solomon and Bar Kochba, is gone...
...Which is the same as saying, if it is not attractive to others, why should we assume that it will be attractive enough to Jews?** Three further points: First, in the future it will be much less common for rulers to chose the religion of their people than it was in the past...
...The size of the Jewish population today is the result of choices—Jewish choices and gentile choices—throughout Jewish history, not just of Jewish birth and death rates...
...We can be 100 million in a century and a hall billion m two centuries, even if there is not a single year m which new converts are as many as 1 percent of our population To get a perspective on how much change can happen in only two centuries, thmk back to the United States 200 years ago, when we wrote our Constitution...
...Our present problems and failings make it easy to be dispirited if we focus only on the present...
...We no longer need be dominated by the fear that if we attract attention we will be attacked and destroyed...
...It is commonly assumed that science, education and the freeing of the shackles of tradition will make religion a dying relic of the past...
...Therefore, many people will be ardendy trying to find and join— or copy—a society with a religion that provides strength and values...
...Those who see purpose in history may say that Israel was reborn just in time to be ready for what is coming...
...It does not seem likely that Judaism can survive, either in Israel or in the Diaspora, on the basis of the numbers that we have customarily accepted...
...The surprising implication of the approaching demographic reality is that * I do not conclude from this that we are forbidden to give up any of the land But I do draw the implication that we should not assume—as many do today—that high Arab birthrates will necessarily force us to choose between a democratic and a Jewish state If the Arabs are unwilling to make peace in this generation, at the time peace does become possible there may be plenty of Jews in Israel to be a clear and growing majority from the sea to the Jordan Maybe the foolish and destructive Arab intransigence that has cost so many lives will turn out to have served the purpose of delaying the setting of Israel's modern eastern border until there are enough Jews in Israel to fill our ancient land I also draw the implication that it is wrong to give up any of the land if we do not have to We have ample justification (in law, history, justice, security needs) for keeping the whole land if we can, although it may not be possible to do so (Which is not to say that other claimants have no justice on their side, unfortunately there is not enough justice—and not enough land— to go around) Although we cannot know whether the destiny that was not fulfilled with our first or second state is intended to be fulfilled with the third, we have to do the best we can to make the one we have succeed although we generally think that Israel will be successful if most Jews come to live there, the fact is that if 200 years from now most Jews live in Israel, Judaism of this era will have failed...
...What seems clear is that, if it happens, the primary mechanism will be the power of the example given by the ways Jews live—in Israel and in the Diaspora...
...Contrary to the way we are accustomed to thinking, I believe the future number of Jews— and the future of Judaism—depends not so much on Jewish birthrates as it does on how attractive Judaism and the Jewish people will be...
...The Arabs will eventually enter the modern world—probably in a few generations...
...And there is good reason to think that if Judaism is attractive to Jews, it will to some lesser degree be attractive * It is possible that the future of Judaism will be determined more by the Diaspora than by Israel—either because Israel rejects Judaism, or because it is destroyed by the Arabs, perhaps because it is not able to become a successful Jewish state I don't believe these possibilities will occur I have faith that Israel wdl succeed, and I think it is unlikely that the Diaspora can survive in the modem world without Israel...
...One realistic possibility is a world of 10 billion people, of whom 500 million are traditional Jews, 50 million of whom live in Israel...
...Judaism's appeal to the millions will depend on the example of how Jews live...
...But few people decide such things by theoretical analysis...
...Religious responses to the hunger for values and faith may not only survive along with, but may even surpass, secularism...
...This does not mean that Judaism need be overwhelmed by a rush of new Jews...
...Judaism must be more than a cruel burden for a chosen people...
...We have already seen that one of the great weaknesses of modern societies is that they spawn reckless idealism or extreme boredom, both of which can lead to extraordinarily harmful behavior...
...Many Jews believe that Judaism as we see it today cannot adapt sufficiently to become an attractive example in the modern world...
...Third, many people will not have a meaningful religion or other value system well adapted to the modern world...
...If we don't get our share during this period, it is not likely that we will have another such chance to fulfill our task...
...That was the pattern of the first half of Jewish history...
...Judaism is intended to teach a way of life that fulfills basic human needs...
...We, and especially the Jews of Israel, are determining the future of Judaism by showing the world what kind of life, what kind of people and what kind of state Judaism produces.* Unfortunately, much of the Jewish community has forgotten the meaning and purpose of the Jewish laws and traditions that have enabled us to survive so long...
...Israel is becoming...
...I believe we should shift to an expansive view of Judaism's future primarily for the affirmative reasons outlined above...
...But the argument of necessity—that our survival requires us to take an expansive view of our future—is also compelling...
...We are just beginning to build our state, and its character and qualities are not yet determined—they depend on what we do...
...If Jews are to constitute even 1 percent of this population—and we have never been such a small fraction of the civilization of which we were a part—there will be at least 100 million Jews (many of them converts or descendants of converts...
...But Judaism did not grow to what it was 2,000 years ago only by natural growth...
...In short, modernization breaks bonds...
...The United States grew so big and powerful primarily because of immigration of people who were not American and didn't speak English, but became American (And the United States never sought, or even desired, large numbers of immigrants...
...This all adds up to a tremendous opportunity for the expansion of Judaism...
...There is no reason that the Israel of tomorrow has to be the Israel of today...
...While there are obvious differences between the United States and Judaism, American history does teach us how much can happen in 200 years—and how much continuity can be combined with so much change...
...Third, urbanization and the continuous and rapid change that characterizes modern life undercuts traditions and ties...
...If Israel is then just a small low-spirited remnant, concerned only with its own survival, with no significant role in the world—either in its own eyes or in the eyes of the world—Israel is not likely to be able to withstand the growing moral, military and political power of the Arab/ Moslem world...
...In 100 or 200 years this will be true of the great majority of people...
...We are determining the future of Judaism by showing the world what kind of life, what kind of people and what kind of state Judaism produces...
...It gave birth to two very different religions—its lineal descendant, rabbinic Judaism, and its more popular variant, Christianity (and perhaps as well to Islam...
...Now all those things have changed, but we are still Americans (and as a committed Jew whose two grandfathers were immigrants—and two of whose sons are Israelis—I still can comfortably say "we...
...it makes people either more rootless or more available, depending on your point of view...
...Why should it not be the pattern of the future9 Not only did Judaism grow by conversion, it also contracted by conversion—that is, assimilation, which is conversion out of Judaism...
...Similarly with the people of Israel...
...Three other striking characteristics of this world of tomorrow can be identified...
...If we can get away from the thinking that characterized our "survival This article is dedicated to my son Alexander, a Lieutenant in the Israel Defense Forces who was killed in a battle with terrorists in Lebanon on September 15, 1987, his 25th birthday The view of the task of budding a Jewish state in Israel presented in this article reflects Alex's ideas—the ideas that brought him to Israel and to which he devoted his life period," we will remember that Judaism can be—as it was meant to be—a joy...
...By "choosing to become Jews" I mean deciding to join their fate with and to love the Jewish people, and to live a Jewish life with the Jewish people according to Jewish law—as best they can—after a conversion according to that law...
...On a rational basis, Judaism should be an attractive choice in modern people's search for values and for a social system that gives life purpose and meaning...
...This means that there will be plenty of Jews to be a majority in Israel—whichever line eventually becomes our eastern border.* And even if there are 20 or 30 or 40 million Jews living in Israel, the Diaspora will contain more Jews than Israel...
...But we should not forget that the static and inflexible qualities that some believe have dominated our last few centuries do not describe the whole history of Judaism...
...The fraction of people who are literate and wealthy by historic standards will increase at least twice as much as the total population—it will grow from a small minority to the vast majority of people of the world...
...Since Judaism was able to change successfully in response to the disaster, why shouldn't it be able to make smaller changes—for example, reflecting non-traditional roles for women—if necessary, to respond to the challenge and opportunity created by what is happening in history now, the process of spreading wealth, which is producing the biggest change in human life since it began...
...Now look at Judaism as a competitor in the marketplace where people decide how to live and what to live for...
...And it will be a Diaspora of "choosing Jews," not a remnant Diaspora...
...A FUTURIST LOOKS AT THE JEWISH FUTURE MAX SINGER Generally when we think of the future of Judaism we think of growing to as many as 5 to 10 million Jews in Israel, 5 to 10 million Jews in the United States, and maybe another 5 to 10 million in Russia, Europe and South America...
...But at the outside this would be less than a third of one percent of the world population a century from now...
...But we shouldn't think of Israel—the land and the people—as fixed...
...This means that in about a century the civilized, modern population within which Judaism will be living will be about 10 times as large as it is today...
...It would be naive to think that the world has completely changed—maybe it never will...
...But both of these judgments may be wrong to others...
...How can Judaism be good for us but not for others...
...Judaism cannot survive, either in Israel or in the Diaspora, on the basis of the numbers we have customarily accepted...
...Indeed, secularism may turn out to be only the first innocent response to modernity...
...Judaism expanded by conversion...
...Those things that are not right about Israel now should not be thought of as defects, but as tasks, that is, as items on our agenda...
...One of Judaism's great strengths is that it is so strongly tied to the past...
...There was already an American people, but they were few, poor, uneducated, part slave, and relatively unimportant in the world...
...Will the Jewish way of life be one that people wish to adopt...
...and they will be free to make choices based on their search...
...Only if Judaism doesn't have much to offer, if Jews and Judaism aren't appealing to people, will the number of Jews be limited by Jewish birthrates—to a few tens of millions...
...We were weak, and the strong did not hesitate to destroy those who threatened or annoyed them...
...they will be searching for meaning and purpose in their lives...
...And if it is not eventually good for us why have we been called on to keep it alive...
...But while the forces and evidence of ## Maybe if 80 percent or 90 percent of Jews in each generation remain Jews, we will attract 1 percent or 3 percent or 10 percent of those who are searching But if we attract zero or one-tenth of a percent of gentile searchers, is it really believable that we will keep most Jewish children and grandchildren1' secularism are dear and strong, another major trend now taking place in many parts of the world is a return to religion, a search for faith or transcendent commitment...
...So if Judaism is to survive, it has to be attractive at least to Jews...
...First, education and communication will make all humanity much more nearly a single market— not only for goods, but also for ideas or models of how to live...
Vol. 12 • December 1987 • No. 9
