India: Economic Development and Political Stability in India

...Backward countries are overwhelmingly agricultural and rural...

...ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT has as a necessary consequence the expansion of educational facilities and the increase in the number of educated persons...

...This theory states that the gap between aspirations and reality, between demands and resources is at the bottom of political instability in most underdeveloped areas and that therefore the best policy is to fill the gap by the most rapid economic development possible...

...The more government can successfully function as a referee, the less it need operate as an adjudicator, and it is in this latter role that the government is confronted with the wrath of those whose demands are not acceded to...

...Educated unemployment may increase on all levels, and the paradox already present in nascent form, may grow in size, of a country in which skilled labor is a scarce resource, and yet in which highly educated persons are in superabundant supply...

...IN GENERAL, economic development benefits from a politically active rather than a politically apathetic population...

...First we presume that certain already existing conflicts may—and in some instances surely will—be magnified by economic growth...

...Perhaps the most commonly held view about ways to achieve political stability is through economic growth...

...These are questions which have existed in the past, have not been solved, have somewhat increased in magnitude, and may lead to bitter conflict...

...Now it may be argued that resources under the best of circumstances cannot catch up with demands, because new demands are likely to be organized as growth occurs, and because those who are now organized are likely to increase their demands as they obtain more, rather than demand less...

...Thus political traditions, the development of a politically active public, and the gap between demands and resources have produced a situation which, for the government of India, contains certain compulsive features...

...What priorities should be established in planning industrial development...

...Still more important is the fact that the extent of demands is largely a function of the size of the organized group, the conditions and form of its organization, its internal unity, financial and manpower resources, and most important, the nature and skills of its leadership...

...Secondly, we will attempt to show that with economic development certain existing relationships become altered or upset, and this, in turn, may lead to political instability and conflict...

...Examples are Afghanistan and Ethiopia, or Yemen and Bhutan, which for long periods during the last half century maintained a high degree of internal political stability even though scarcely any economic growth could be witnessed...

...An increase in responsiveness on the part of government is surely one way of mitigating some of the tensions, but obviously no government could respond to all demands —even if it wished to—since, for one, in no society are resources adequate to meet all the demands made by citizens, and for another, demands are often conflicting...

...The very participation of government in programs of economic planning tends to increase these conflicts...

...With the introduction of money it may become to the advantage of either landlord or tenant to pay rent in money...

...Furthermore, no government with any concern for economic growth and social justice can function simply as a broker for all organized demands pursuing no policies of its own...

...Thus we may predict with a high degree of confidence that the emergence and organization of new groups will take place as a consequence of India's economic development, and that with the growth in the number, size and strength of these groups the volume and intensity of demands upon government will increase greatly...

...If experience in other societies which have made the transition to modern life is any guide, it may very well be that some amount of inflexible group conflict and even violence is necessary for groups to learn the value of peaceful negotiations...

...Shall government make its decisions on the basis of what will net the best return in the long run for the nation as a whole...

...Economic growth may affect powerfully the relative position of these groups...

...No one is as inclined to foster violence as a disgruntled intellectual, at least within the Indian context...

...The logical consequence of this ideology is the proposition that in order to achieve politically more stable regimes it is important to support them in their quest for economic growth, and this ideology more than any other forms the basis of American programs for economic aid...

...One way out would be to change the "rules of the game," i.e., to abrogate the existing system in which demands can be freely voiced and to replace it by some autocratic or totalitarian system...

...India may thus enhance the problems it already faces with educated unemployed in the cities...

...It is possible, of course, to find the reasons in each case for the political instability...

...Tensions between Bengal and Bihar, Andhra and Madras, and the new States of Gujerat and Maharashtra are intensified as the central government has investment funds to allocate...

...But even if we could anticipate that the existing conflicts between regions and States, between economic, linguistic, ethnic, and caste groups will not be sharpened, that employment opportunities will keep pace with the supply of new entrants to the labor force, and jobs can be found for the educated graduates of schools and colleges, economic development in India may yet increase political tensions and instabilities, because of the inherent structure of the system...

...The already existing gap will not be narrowed, but, if anything, widened and the political instability which is derivable from this gap will thus increase...

...Some demands must be pacified if government is to survive...

...In some countries it is the result of racial differences, in others the impact of Communist infiltration, and in others again the aftermath of the breakup of traditional social relations...

...But more important than the sheer economic problem of misallocation of resources—a misallocation due not to the economic realities, but the values and beliefs, or perhaps rather the status preconceptions of Indians—is the resulting political instability...

...With continued economic change, and in the absence of very rapid advances in agricultural production, the conflicts resulting from such dislocations may become even more frequent and violent...

...Clearly the advantage of one group is the disadvantage of the other, and commutation of land rent may become a violently fought over issue...

...If we now turn to the already existing tensions which are likely to become aggravated by economic growth, we note first the existing regional conflicts...

...Trade unions, peasant organizations, student groups, caste, tribal, and linguistic groups all place demands upon government for more jobs, for expansion in educational facilities, for investment in local development projects, for more food, and in general for higher living standards for their groups...

...The third alternative, and the one which the present government of India appears to be determined to follow, is to cope with potential stability by accelerated economic growth...

...An obvious example is the conflict between town and country, between the Hindu community and tribals, and between religious communities or castes...

...In other words, the generally held assumption that economic development is a necessary sine qua non for the Indian government is true, not because there is an invariable correlation between the rate or level of economic advancement and the degree of political stability, but because in India a politically conscious public has become organized into economic and political interest groups which direct their demands at government, and because it is in the Indian tradition of relations between government and the public for government to assume responsibility for the public's welfare demands...

...Some of these processes are visible at present...

...The Indian government, for example, could choose to minimize its present role as arbitrator in labor-management disputes...

...The newly independent states have inherited this politically conscious population, and, for this reason, apathy and isolation— and stability based upon them—are rarely to be found...

...Furthermore, if a man learning to read and write considers it beneath his dignity to farm, a raising of educational levels in the countryside may lead to widespread migration to the cities...

...Another field in which existing conflicts may be sharpened by future development is the struggle among social and communal groups...

...It is very unlikely that all groups in society will improve their position at the same rate, and even if they should do so, they will not perceive it to be so...

...Political instability in India (and elsewhere) is, as already stressed, not related to economic development in any straightforward way...

...and violence is more likely to occur in Jamshedpur, Calcutta, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, and Allahabad— to mention places of major disturbances during the past few years—than in more backward and underdeveloped areas of India...

...In other words, a simple correlation between the level of economic performance and political stability in different areas of India would show that, on the whole, the economically most-advanced regions also exhibited more violence and other signs of stark political instability than the economically less-developed ones...

...The political stability of many economically backward societies is the byproduct of political apathy among the masses and relative isolation of persons who could form the core of potentially strong organized groups...

...The more the capacity of government to spend increases, and the more investment decisions are made by government rather than by the private sector, the more there are likely to be conflicts over allocations between organized groups and government, between local governments and State governments, and between State governments and the center...

...There is one point, however, which seems to explain why some of the most backward areas present a high degree of political stability and why in India and other parts of Asia and Africa the most highly developed regions have also displayed a high degree of political upheaval, at least temporarily...

...During the period of British rule, political violence was most severe in the economically most highly developed provinces: Bengal, Bombay, Madras, and Punjab...

...Tamil antipathies toward the north are expressed in increased pressure on the central government for investment in South Indian economic development...

...But perhaps even more serious are imbalances between economic progress and cultural change...

...IN INDIA ALSO the correlation between political stability and economic development is poor or even negative...

...But government can so act as to reduce the number and severity of the demands made upon it...

...No matter what criteria are employed, some groups are bound to be dissatisfied...

...But this solution in itself, as we shall see, is a perilous one and in the remainder of this paper we should like to suggest a few reasons why a development-centered policy is not likely to lead to a significant lessening of political instability in India, and why, in our opinion, the only decisive steps that may lead to this result lie in the realm of political action...

...Economic stagnation may be innocuous in a country in which political apathy is widespread, but in India it would lead to catastrophe...

...and by now organized groups are springing up all over the countryside...

...In this article we propose to explore one popular notion about this problem with particular reference to India...

...IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE to exhaust all the possible or even prospective interrelations between' political instability and economic growth which may arise in India...

...In which district shall a new college be built...

...In other words, they are more conscious of their relative than their absolute position...

...This notion is based on the usually unstated assumption that the basic political ills of modern Asia, its political instabilities and threats of violence, its tendencies toward totalitarianism and autocracy on the one hand, and anarchy, on the other, can be solved through economic growth...

...But if we disregard these cases, since they may be said to represent social and economic relations too different from the present, we still find that some of the most stable political systems today are associated with poorly developed, economically stagnant societies...

...For the state to serve constantly as a gobetween is to minimize contact and communication between groups without which a sense of a nation-wide society cannot be built...

...Even today, Communists are strong in Kerala and West Bengal and weaker in some of the economically less-developed areas...

...As long, for example, as various forms of manual labor are regarded as unfit occupations for a person with somewhat higher education, additions to the educated labor force may exceed the job opportunities considered appropriate by this labor force...

...Are some regions entitled to special treatment, either because they are more backward than others, or perhaps just because they are less backward...

...It is this combination of apathy and isolation which explains the stability of countries like Bhutan and Yemen, and which explains the greater degree of stability in some of the most destitute regions of Central India and Rajasthan, as compared with the frequent violence and instability characteristic of Bengal or Punjab politics...

...Historically we find some of the most stable political systems the world has ever known associated with stagnating economies: the millenial rules of Byzantium or of ancient Egypt...

...Indeed, the very struggle against the colonial powers made it desirable for the leaders of national independence movements to infuse the indigenous population with political consciousness...

...It is these persons who compose the cadres of the less responsible political parties who make up the narrower entourage of demagogues, and who become the leaders of millenarian and messianic movements, all of which may, when the opportunity is ripe, threaten political stability...

...The Indian government could choose as its role that of a referee ensuring that the rules of the game are properly observed...

...Is the distribution of aid from the center equitable...

...in other words to narrow the gap between demands and resources, aspirations and reality...

...In fact, economic development in itself is a factor which contributes to the fairly rapid destruction of political apathy and isolation...

...While the notion of public planning may be widely supported, there are invariably differences over how public funds ought to be allocated...

...Are all States and all areas equally well endowed with educational institutions...

...How to cope with this rising gap is indeed the great challenge to a political leadership concerned with maintaining stability in the framework of representative government...

...But by pointing to discernible causes of political instability in these (and other) cases, we effectively destroy any simple theory which links unilaterally increases in political stability with increases in the level of economic performance...

...In fact, drawing upon the experience of India during the later years of British rule and the first dozen years of independence, the proposition could be made that economic development, far from enhancing political stability, has tended to be politically unstabilizing...

...The initial contacts between groups may in fact often be violent, in spite of the efforts of the state to enforce law and order but, as the Maharashtrians and Gujeratis recently learned, there must ultimately be negotiation and concession if there is to be settlement...

...We have described this system as one in which demands by organized groups are directed at government and in which the government is unable to meet these demands because of an insufficiency of resources at its disposal, because of the gap between aspirations and reality...

...It tends to widen the impact of the mass media of communication and to open up new communication networks which in turn establish new previously non-existent contacts and thus form the basis of new groups...

...We shall argue that even though resources at the disposal of government may increase, demands will increase with them, and indeed may increase more rapidly than re sources, and the power, size and number of organizations which make demands upon government are likely to increase...

...Indeed if harmony, or at least political stability is desired, in the long run it is best to encourage groups to converse, bargain, negotiate, and even fight with one another...

...Another alternative would be for the gap between aspirations and reality to become so wide that effective government ceases, and an anarchic or quasi-anarchic situation arises and holds sway, at least temporarily, to be replaced, most probably, again by a system of autocracy...

...IMBALANCES IN THE RATE of economic growth are still another source of political tensions...

...This observation must, however, not be interpreted as leading to the conclusion that, on the one hand, economic growth has been the only or even the prime cause of political instability, or, on the other, that the best guarantee for the preservation of greater political stability is the renunciation of programs of economic development...

...These factors are largely independent of economic growth, and to the extent to which they are dependent upon it are primarily enhanced by it...

...Take as an example the increasing penetration of the countryside by the money economy...

...For all these reasons, felt differences will continue and even temporary differences will be perceived as more permanent and fundamental than they really are...

...A simple correlation is established between economic well-being and stable political relations, or at least between the rate of economic progress and political stability...

...So long, for example, as secular and ritual status of two castes coincide there is not likely to be a conflict, but when secular status changes while ritual status remains the same, conflicts are likely to ensue...

...If we were to argue this we would fall into the same pitfall of simplistic economist determinism as those who maintain the reverse proposition...

...Such a policy does not necessarily decrease the number of conflicts which exist, for conflict is built into any modernizing society where the relative position of social and economic groups are rapidly changing, but it can help to deflect some of these conflicts away from government...

...Some of the inter-caste violence which mars the Indian countryside today is an outflow of these changes...

...in conflicts among linguistic, caste, tribal and religious bodies, the State and central governments might choose not to act unless the conflicting parties agree...

...In Kenya or the Central African Federation, in several of the states of the Middle East and in the Philippines political instability has been endemic in the last few years, even though many of these countries experienced noticeable economic growth in the same period...

...It may choose to encourage organized groups to present their demands against one another and to minimize its own participation in group conflict within the society...

...This is also the reason why one cannot rely on a slowing up of economic growth or even on economic stagnation to enhance political stability in India...

...If industrial output and employment grow at a substantially faster rate than food output, urban costs of living rise, and this in turn may lead to political demonstrations, strikes, and possibly violence...

...later an increasing number of urban centers developed political and other groupings...

...The growth in regional loyalties since the turn of the century, and their recent political expression in the creation of several new linguistic States may result in increased inter-State conflict as economic growth takes place...

...Even where ritual and secular status have differed, economic growth may sharpen the differences...

...At the bottom of these growing conflicts is a gap between resources and aspirations...

...Yet even superficial observation will show that there is no close correlation between political stability and either economic well-being or economic growth...

...Groups measure themselves and their achievements not against what they had before, but against what others are getting...

...But the same impact which economic growth exerts on the size and internal structure of groups, it also has on the formation of new groups...

...With an increased program of investment, these tensions may increase in intensity...

...No general theory is likely to guide a government as to how to solve such problems...

...But in India the rejection of political apathy has occurred more rapidly than the rise in the level of economic development and this has created, in large measure, the existing discrepancy between organized demands and resources available to the government to fill these demands...

...One reason the Indian government looks upon the present level of development as perilous to political stability is the high degree of organized demands within Indian politics...

...The rising demand of organized groups, however, stands in the shadow, and it is easy to understand why the Indian government looks upon economic development, and therefore a rise in its own budgetary resources, as a means for securing stability...

...In India, in particular, the nationalist movement during the thirty years before independence was the main instrument in destroying the apathy of the Indian masses...

...still others may, if only temporarily, be put aside...

...In other words, economic development produces as a by-product, as it were, the leadership of groups and the organizational conditions for new groups...

...In much of Asia and also in the United States and other countries of the West this ideology of "economism" is widely held and has found many supporters...

...And finally, and perhaps most importantly, we will argue that the inherent structure of the political sys tem is not likely to mitigate tension...

...How to mitigate the instabilities which are likely to result from the unsatisfied demands of organized groups involves for any government difficult day-to-day decisions...

...What we can do, is to Iist a few special cases, moving from the more specific to the more general situations, in the hope of indicating how the unstabilizing effects of economic development may be operative at many diverse levels...

...Yet only a relatively small part of India is organized and as education and mass communication increase their impact, and as people increasingly become aware of political opportunities available to them in a democracy to obtain from government the things they want, the more groups are likely to become organized and to make demands...

...And whatever instability existed was induced from abroad, i.e., by aggressive encroachments or diplomatic action...

...Its first organized groups appeared in a few large metropolitan centers...

...The phases through which political development of India passed are well known...

...India's governmental leadership is aware of the fact that the country's present political stability results from the popular strength of the Congress Party, the internal cohesion which the party has thus far been able to maintain, and a fragmented opposition which has made it possible for Congress to maintain control of the central and most State governments in spite of the fact that it commands the support only of a minority of the electorate...

...Moreover, the mass of the population is not only without popular political leadership, it needs no popular political leadership because it is isolated and politically apathetic...

...others may be partially satisfied...

...Whatever groupings exist are based primarily on kinship or quasi-kinship relations, and economic interest groups are entirely or almost entirely absent...

...In many villages traditional shares in kind were payable as land rent...

...At the same time, some countries which have experienced a substantial economic growth have had to contend with significant political instabilities...

...Moreover, economic development invariably produces imbalances of various sorts and they are sure to destroy whatever proportionality there may have existed between the achievements of various groups...