Of Bombs And Men Abraham '59-A Nuclear Fantasy
Aiken, F. B.
Now that it is all over it is easy to think back and realize that today's events had been well prefigured, even before the Soviet launching of Sputnik I in October of 1957. I remember having...
...Should we merely sit by and idly watch the approaching obsolescence of SAC and our ensuing international helplessness...
...This was called the Research and Development lead-time war...
...I had not been back at my desk thirty minutes when the emergency call came through to proceed instantly to the President's office...
...I must be certain of your ability to translate precisely the message I give you...
...As I glanced around I recognized most of them as the great ones I had seen often at lunch...
...I had heard about the White House bomb shelter and now either a grisly drill was under way or I was going to experience the mixed blessing of finding out whether the President's bomb shelter would serve the purpose for which it was designed...
...What would Russia be likely to do in either case...
...That is the problem...
...If the plan goes according to this schedule, two stations in our telephonic network will drop off dead before we are through...
...In this way they became inured against normal reactions to authority and the typical American feeling that any order should be explained to its executor...
...His face was calm but his eyes dominated everything...
...What would you do...
...If we levy everything we can against her, there is still a strong likelihood that she will retaliate with everything...
...Is there any strategy which will ensure it...
...I remember actually laughing when I read one of those futuristicseeming projection papers which concluded a series of proofs with the proposal that we immediately dismantle the Strategic Air Command, our only defense against Russia, and try to bargain with them for anything we could get in return...
...It had waited until it had gotten far enough toward Moscow that our own planes could not intercept it in time to prevent its reaching the target...
...F. B. Aiken is an industrial consultant and one of the founders of control system analysis...
...He could then try to intercept the squadron...
...Rose Laub Coser is a teacher of sociology who specializes in the problems of hospitals...
...We can hope that this threat will deter them from starting anything, but what if it actually does not deter them...
...Some were in clumps around the edges...
...The staging of these SAC attacks is such that we are relatively certain the Russians have no equipment, either ground to air or air to air, capable of stopping it...
...It was wise, I thought, to be seen by them often, and though never more than brief friendly nods were passed my way, it always made my blood run a little faster to be in the presence of these great ones who exuded power and who seemed to hold the destiny of the world in their hands...
...Suppose," he mused, "I were to set up a four-way telephone connection...
...It is absolutely necessary that you make no mistake in translation, for now, the only place where an error might bring total AmericanSoviet devastation is in the translation...
...An emergency search failed to turn it up...
...At two hours from now, under my personal order, a second SAC squadron will arrive over New York City...
...It then radioed back the code signal for an attack on Moscow...
...Oux POLICY of massive retaliation" read the analysis produced by the electronic calculators at the Ranard Military Policy Center, "is so ill-founded as to amount to a potentially catastrophic selfdelusion...
...Khrushchev...
...However, at very rare intervals all this might change and I would get an emergency call to provide the President with a concurrent translation in a transatlantic telephone communication with Khrushchev...
...There were literally no thoughts in my head...
...The President's armor-piercing eyes rested on me briefly and then, glancing quickly about the room, he said: "Now I'd like for all the rest of you to leave for a little while...
...Not even I, proud though I was of what I had always regarded as a superior cold bloodedness in evaluating political forces...
...I remember now that everything seemed entirely normal...
...Nothing short of this could insure our getting out of this mess with a minimum of two cities gone...
...What can we do...
...We must assume that in just about four hours Moscow will be obliterated because one of our bomber crews decided to take it upon themselves to save the world from the Russian threat...
...HE LOOKED AT HIS WATCH for a moment and then resumed...
...It was as if everyone was straining so hard to keep down tension that the strength of their effort became quickly oppressive...
...I'd always found those eyes disconcerting, but that day they seemed to have been drained of color...
...Would he not feel required to inflict at least as great a damage on us...
...I've got a little thinking to do before we get to work...
...If the plan I have described is carried out precisely each country will lose her brightest jewel, but everything else will be saved...
...Nicola Chiaromonte is the well-known critic and writer who at present edits, together with Ignazio Silone, the Italian journal Tempo Presente...
...We could throw in enough additional SAC units to put all Russia out of commission...
...But this was by no means all...
...Do you think you are up to it...
...But perhaps one more time would be helpful and 1I in any case you should be briefed on what's coming off for otherwise you would almost certainly make a dangerous translation error at the crucial spot...
...E. V. Walter, a teacher of political science who has written for us frequently, becomes an editor...
...It is clear that there could be no possible gain in so doing...
...Sell out SAC now," wrote the author, "while it is still worth something...
...How could we do that, I ask you...
...Then we would maintain constant contact, hoping that our squadron fails, but at least assured of limiting the mutual devastation—perhaps even providing a sure, though ghastly foundation for future peaceful relationships...
...If our report from the American Embassy in Moscow tells us that they have been bombed, the squadron over New York will be immediately directed to devastate that city...
...That is why I have taken so much of the little valuable time remaining to go over this thoroughly with you...
...The crew members had to be converted into almost the opposite of what we had always conceived of as "normal" American boys...
...Or would we not be better off by just calling off the entire conflict at that point...
...Also, the distinguished novelist, Richard Wright, has agreed to serve as a Contributing Editor...
...What would be a comparable loss for us...
...Suppose the Russians devastated the United States with nuclear weapons, literally burning off the country...
...The Russians have indicated that above all they want to be recognized by the West as a mature culture...
...Finally he motioned me to a chair: "Sit here please by this extension telephone...
...As White House Russian translator my position was strange...
...New York...
...Because of the blanket of secrecy which had long clouded security questions from the public it is still not widely understood how matters came to take their tragic turn...
...I sat there quietly and politely listening to the President of the United States discuss the pros and cons of the nuclear obliteration of American and Soviet civilizations...
...What would be the best strategy for minimizing our maximum losses at the second phase which would have been introduced by partial devastation...
...He understood about nuclear blast effects, logistical problems, missile capabilities, and the paramount struggle between Russia and America to reduce their comparative "lead-times" between the development of a new weapon and its production for tactical use...
...We have a strong conviction that this could not succeed...
...As does Henry Pachter, lecturer and writer, who is well-known to our readers...
...During that interval, which was estimated to go into effect toward the end of 1958, SAC would have become worthless and we would still be over a year away from operational countervailing ICBMs...
...With a start I realized that he really was asking me, peering at me intensely, leaning forward taut, now in his desk chair...
...We can give them that for comparatively little and in addition trade SAC for a number of stabilizing concessions which then may allow us five years of relative freedom to prepare for a potent reentry into the R and D lead-time war...
...If that is clear, then the policy itself is devoid of the deterrence feature we attribute to it...
...Would we actually carry out our own threatened retaliation...
...What good would that do...
...David Spitz is a political scientist whose books include Patterns of Anti-Democratic Thought and The Challenge of Power...
...The President looked up as I approached...
...All this was to be given a hideously ironic twist before the end of Spring...
...For months on end I was little more than a clerk, translating Russian docu ments or perhaps some of the passages the President might want especially included in a State Department communication to the Russians...
...As the elevator came to a stop its automatic door opened onto a hall like that in any normal office building...
...Of course, such writing was not even dignified by ridicule, those few short months ago...
...Khrushchev will have instantaneous confirmation from his own Consulate speaking directly to him over our telephone network...
...On any view, massive retaliation cannot be in the American interest and must be abandoned as an unrealistic foundation for American policy...
...We had already lost, he said, the "lead-time" war...
...As near as we can figure it the odds are not favorable in either case...
...Absolute and unquestioning obedience, though the order might seem cruel, inhuman, or even "unAmerican" by normal standards, had to be drilled into those crews...
...If we leave the bombing of Moscow as it is with this one mutinous squadron the Russians are almost certain to throw everything they have at us...
...Introducing Our New Editors: We are pleased to announce the addition of several editors...
...The room we entered contained about fifteen men...
...It was neat, but really kind of insane...
...They had to be made capable of fanatic devotion to their superiors, regardless of what spot in the entire world they might be ordered to bomb...
...I looked up...
...But how would you convince them of that...
...They are waiting below," she said, and led me to an elevator...
...The historical reminder that General Lee had "proved" to himself the South was defeated before the Civil War began, failed to alert even those of us relatively close to the President to the implications of new methods of analysis which could definitively "prove" in advance the outcome of a hypothetical conflict...
...It was a pleasant April day—April is about the only civilized month in Washington's climate, and I had felt a pent-up Spring exhilaration all day...
...For that reason extremely elaborate psychological tests and indoctrination methods had to be devised for selecting and training the crews to man our SAC bombers...
...When other new-model theorists of Cold War strategy claimed to have developed a series of mathematical formulas whereby electronic computers could be used to project the outcome of possible military conflicts, everybody found the notion of war as extrapolations from a series of mathematical formulas impossible to assimilate...
...We have spent two hours trying to figure every angle of the situation...
...The American Embassy in Moscow would be necessary to report to me whether our squadron actually delivered their bombs...
...Quite so," he replied gently, "because I have not yet told you of the plan we are about to describe to Mr...
...Melvin Tumin has recently published Desegregation, a study of the racial patterns in a Southern community...
...With you continuing as translator I would then tell Khrushchev of the accident, describe for him my plan to convince him that it is an accident and that there is no reason for retaliatory action on his part...
...Break down the massive retaliation policy into a series of war game moves and counter moves...
...How could we do that, I ask you...
...And Among New Contributors: Hannah Arendt is the well-known author of The Origins of Totalitarianism which has just appeared in a paperback edition...
...The President's eyes were boring through me, trying to read my every reaction...
...Paper logic" I remember thinking to myself...
...We might think that it would not be in her interest to retaliate, but what would her Communist leaders think...
...Every danger that they might for some reason become incapable of delivering their bombs on the selected targets had to be foreseen and counteracted or the whole policy of massive retaliation would stand for naught in the showdown it had to envision...
...Since it was necessary to have crews in the air at all moments ready and able to deliver bombs on enemy targets, an unceasing indoctrination effort had to be a permanent feature of the lives of these dedicated crews, so that each day at the moment they rose into the air with their "pistols cocked" they were in effect demoniac anti-Communist janisaries, straining to unleash a patriotic cataclysm and fulfill the mission for which they had been created...
...The situation is as follows," he began...
...he is currently visiting professor of government at Cornell University...
...He could then retire to the Kremlin bomb shelter or get far enough from Moscow for safety and reopen telephonic communications with my four-way network...
...Suppose alternatively," continued the analysis, "that the Russians did not burn off the entire United States, but only the Eastern seacoast industrial area: the New England-Middle Atlantic area, leaving the rest of the country largely intact physically if not genetically...
...THE PRESIDENT'S secretary met me at the door to his office...
...THERE WAS NOTHING for me to say...
...Suppose I were to call Khrushchev, the American Embassy in Moscow and the Soviet Consulate in New York City...
...At the far end the President sat at a desk, surrounded by five others...
...The author was one of that new breed of military "hardware" experts...
...I had half risen in bewilderment...
...The relays of guards were at special alert, as they always are when the President is in the White House, but nothing unusual at any point prepared me for what was to come...
...You proved just before that we would not be sure of convincing him it was an accident, and that we could not be certain of limiting the counter attack...
...I was led past a series of doors to the end of the corridor...
...We cannot stop it...
...The President was obviously talking to himself—perhaps a little anxious to postpone action a while longer...
...The urgency of the command and the excitement with which I looked forward to these tasks led me to run down the stairs from my second floor East Wing office to the ground floor and then down the long corridor under the White House proper to the President's office in the West Wing...
...At these times, and for just a few hours afterward, I talked intimately with the mighty ones around the President...
...He turned and reached for his telephone...
...It was just at the beginning of 1958...
...Finally about two hours after it was first missed the squadron itself opened radio communications with its base...
...How would this help us or anyone else...
...I was then of great importance to them, for until the transcriptions were ready I was the only one aside from the President who knew what had taken place...
...I had taken the late lunch hour at the White House mess, for that was the time those closest to the President usually ate...
...It is necessary to keep in mind this feature of the recent past in order to appreciate the inevitability of the succession of events of the spring of 1959...
...Even if he did, what difference would this make...
...I remember that the atmosphere in the room was strangely subdued...
...We know that she has bomber groups like our own Strategic Air Command and that she could devastate the United States even if we delivered the full force of an attack throughout Russia...
...Maybe it would help a little if I run over the situation once more out loud...
...This doesn't make sense...
...Now that it is all over it is easy to think back and realize that today's events had been well prefigured, even before the Soviet launching of Sputnik I in October of 1957...
...How could we be certain he would stop with New York, even if we could make him believe it was an error...
...Quietly the room emptied...
...Should we...
...So too does Michael Walzer, a young writer whose articles have appeared in recent issues...
...Joseph Buttinger, a veteran of the Austrian socialist movement and author of In the Twilight of Socialism, and The Smaller Dragon, has been a friend of DtssENT from its beginnings...
...Should we then retaliate 'massively,' burning off part or all of Russia...
...But Mr...
...President...
...But would he stop at New York...
...To what end...
...But who could at that time give credence to such a strangely detached point of view...
...President, whenever you are," I said...
...We would pray with them at our Moscow Embassy that it would not be their dying report, but it would be necessary for us to have the report in either case...
...we are pleased that he now joins our board formally...
...Or should we not instead bargain SAC when it was still a danger to the Russians, trading them a year of greater security now for a preserved American capability to overreach them at some point in the future...
...Nothing short of this could prove to him our sincerity...
...With the destruction of American industrial capacity the world would be converted instantly into a Russian hegemony, for the Russians would then control all sources for reindustrialization aid...
...I prepared to make some lame response, but before I could it was clear he had forgotten about me again and was racing on with his thoughts...
...WE HAD ALWAYS understood the dangers of a potential human failure if it should ever become necessary to send another bomber squadron manned by normal American boys on a mission of nuclear genocide...
...From then on out, the rest of the Cold War moves and counter-moves would merely be a series of demonstrations of America's inferiority as she was forced to back down in area after area...
...How could we convince the Russians that this is an accident and be confident of limiting their retaliation...
...Would he take it at face value for a mutinous accident...
...Early this morning we received word that one of our SAC squadrons had not returned to its home base from a routine flight...
...We've all thought it out as far as we can and everyone comes to the same conclusion...
...I am ready, Mr...
...Still the President remained silent...
...The conception with which the Strategic Air Command had been developed was the key to all the happenings of that fateful spring...
...Only this could convince him he has nothing to lose by waiting to see whether we go through with it because if we were to fail to take out New York ourselves, he could still give the orders for our total devastation...
...IT WAS ABSOLUTELY UNREAL...
...The danger of our own obliteration is a little less great in one case than the other, but in both cases that danger is real enough that our assured preservation requires a better strategy than either of these two...
...This conclusion, which seemed ludicrous to me at the time, followed from an analysis purporting to prove that the Russians had demonstrated with Sputnik I something like a one-year lead-time drop on us...
...Suppose I were to call Khrushchev via transatlantic telephone and tell him of this accident through you on the extension phone beside you...
...she has also just published a new book on political theory...
...I remember having read what was at the time a strange-seeming article...
...Should the United States then, with its dying gasp, activate SAC units in other parts of the world to burn off Russia as well...
...Would the remaining American population be better off by our going through with nuclear devastation...
...He continued thinking out loud, for the moment oblivious to my presence— "Now the situation would be somewhat different if it were possible to really convince the Russians that this is an accident...
...How would he react to the warning...
...not enough so as to defend either standing pat on this one berserk squadron, or adding everything we've got to it...
...However this could not be assured short of our arranging it ourselves, since we caused the initial accident...
...So this was it...
Vol. 6 • January 1959 • No. 1
