Big tent, uneasy coalition

...Pastor Rick," as Obama addressed him, asked a question that could have upended the Obama campaign: "At what point does a baby get human rights, in your view...

...In his 1995 autobiography, Dreams from My Father, that period in his life is retold with all of the frustrating details of dead-end efforts that an organizer has to contend with...

...Couldn't he have done better than that...

...There are at least two important constituencies that have these policies in their sights and that expect dramatic policy changes...

...Denominational leaders have worked to educate and organize their congregations and parishes to do the same...

...But he added insult to injury when he invited Pastor Rick to offer the invocation at his inauguration...

...that includes social value issues as well as less divisive policy issues...

...Finally, however, there are some issues that he will not be able to finesse, for example, the treatment and incarceration without trial of enemy combatants...

...But it certainly convinced some Catholic voters that Republican tampering with the Court was unlikely to lead to the overturn of Roe, while their economic and social welfare policies increased the pressure on women to have abortions...

...Though Obama favors equal rights for homosexuals and same-sex unions, he is opposed to same-sex marriage...

...These groups, mostly from the liberal side of the spectrum, have never let go of the idea that these Bush administration policies are illegal, immoral, and un-American...

...Here are some conjectures along with some projections about how Obama's winning coalition could survive this combustible mix...

...I paid particular attention on several blogs and listservs to the discussion among Catholics about whether to go for Obama or not...

...They are a threat to our constitutional order...

...there were disciplined and low-keyed rebuttals to accusations and partisan attacks...

...and attempted media ambushes were neatly outflanked...

...They took a leap of faith—and not just religious people...

...If Obama bypasses serious scrutiny of the CIA, which has a penchant for acting outside the purview of elected leaders, he may have trouble with a wide swath of this coalition...

...We'll see...

...electorate...

...Though their focus has been on the moral issues involved: protecting human dignity and ending torture, their ultimate goal is a political one: to end policies that allow abusive practices...

...Time, money, and effort were lavished on Midwestern farm states...

...By postponing attention to policies dealing with these conflicting social values issues, Democrats might survive an election cycle or two...

...and the general Opposition to another Republican administration...

...soil could weaken the resolve of some, but insofar as the torture and incarceration policies are now seen to have been the source of increasing hostility around the world, there will be a critical mass of opposition to further illegal policies...

...was a common lament among Catholics and other pro-lifers eager to support him...

...In a culture as deeply divided as ours has been, other Obama supporters could be equally disappointed about particular policies he chooses to change or not, to introduce or not, to support or not (there's torture, auto emissions, food policy, Israel and Gaza, the war in Iraq, to say nothing of bailing out the banks, among many divisive issues...

...domestic and international crisis, courtesy of the Bush administration, weighed decisively in the balance...

...Does all of this make gays and lesbians, like Catholics and pro-lifers, another part of what could prove to be an uneasy coalition...

...Whatever the electorate thinks about the Bush war policies in Iraq and Afghanistan and his foreign policy with Pakistan, Russia, or Europe, there are enough voters, across the political spectrum, who now understand that torture, rendition, the suspension of habeas corpus for enemy combatants, and imprisonment without trial at Guantänamo are not simply a foreign policy problem, a stain on our international reputation...

...How did this happen...

...He survived the remark, and in spite of his pro-choice views, Obama carried the Catholic vote into his coalition...

...All of this played in Obama's favor...

...On the more moderate, even conservative side, there is the National Religious Campaign Against Torture (NRCAT), an ecumenical coalition of religious leaders who have spoken out and demonstrated against abuse and torture of prisoners at Guantänamo and elsewhere...

...Even so, given his age, race, and inexperience, a good campaign might not have been enough to win the presidency...

...But, as during the campaign, he will have to tread carefully around issues about which one constituency or another could blow up...

...During the campaign, Obama expressed strong opposition to these policies and practices, and in his first days in office he signed executive orders closing Guantänamo within the year and calling for an end to abusive practices—but with provisos that have disappointed some lawyers and religious leaders...

...These included religious, ethnic, regional, vocational, and many other subsets of the U.S...

...Warren, in addition to opposing gay marriage, had made several deprecatory statements about homosexuals...

...Insofar as Obama succeeded in that environment, and in the Illinois State Legislature, he inevitably learned about bargaining, negotiating, and bringing along his opponents—and what is important here— sometimes they came on their terms, not his...

...But second, there was the economic meltdown in September and October...

...Another very important piece of that coalition, gay men and lesbians, had a similar shockand-disappointment experience when California's Proposition 8, rescinding court approval of same-sex marriages, won the "yes" vote with a plurality of African American and Hispanic voters...

...He was seen to be on their political wavelength...

...Certainly these orders will bear monitoring...

...And for the moment, it appears that Obama has held off on lifting the military's "don't ask, don't tell" rule...

...Another terrorist attack on U.S...

...Many voters who once might never have considered him voted for him with enthusiasm...

...and a small band of journalists and writers who have pursued evidence of the administration's wrongdoing far and wide...

...He was greatly helped by the decision of Douglas Kmiec (a Catholic, pro-life Republican who teaches constitutional law at Pepperdine University and who had worked in the Reagan Justice Department) to support Obama...

...But finally, the disposition of these matters may have less to do with the president's views than with decisions made by congressional committees, a new crew at the Department of Justice, and Supreme Court decisions...

...lawyers, from the university and legal firms, who have defended the detainees...

...Still, as a survivor of Chicago politics, he appeared to me (and many of my fellow Chicagoans-in-exile) deeply pragmatic, a man who knew how to deal...

...Third, to get undecided or wavering moderate voters, the Obama campaign assiduously courted many specific constituent groups across the political spectrum...

...Obama understood that this question was about abortion, and his immediate reply was somewhat evasive: "Whether you're looking at it from a theological perspective or a scientific perspective, answering that question with specificity, you know, is above my pay grade...

...Though he went on to give a considered response to the question, that "above my pay grade" remark sounded flippant, seeming to lack the nuance and gravitas expected of a candidate who needed a good chunk of the Catholic vote in key states, such as Pennsylvania and Ohio...

...They were instrumental, I believe, in barring former CIA officer John Brennan from being named its director...

...the McCain campaign's excruciating displays of bad judgment...

...Some readers of Dissent may be surprised to learn that there are a good many moderates who have serious concerns about abortion but who don't necessarily support the complete overthrow of Roe v. Wade...

...The U.S...

...Such "background" factors suggest to me that many people wound up voting for him who might not have...

...Kmiec's endorsement proved contentious among his former Republican allies and winning among his newfound Democratic friends...

...That and the economic crisis will probably carry him a long way before any single issue will derail his winning coalition...

...Would he have voted for Proposition 8 had he been a resident of California...

...Kmiec's argument came down to the assessment that Obama's economic and welfare policies were more likely to reduce the number of abortions than Republican efforts to create a conservative majority on the Supreme Court...

...This is politics, after all...

...One of these was a self-generated list of liberal Catholics...

...That's unclear...

...Bringing people together and energizing them to understand and act on the forces undermining their lives and those of their children was no easy task...

...He seems perfectly capable of walking that line...

...Obama's focus on the economic crisis may save him...

...In short, Obama has re-gathered the defunct New Deal Democratic coalition (among them union members, urban politicians, blacks, Catholics, Jews, rural populists, intellectuals, and first- and second-generation immigrants), but with all of the social value baggage of the last forty years...

...Therefore, fifth, if elements of this electoral coalition ever square off, especially on what any one faction deems a matter of principle, the community organizing political style may not work, and a potentially fractious coalition could blow up...

...He was, after all, a community organizer on the South Side of Chicago...

...The strategic planning was nearly flawless...

...Hispanics got particular attention as did Jews, evangelicals, and Catholics...

...Yet in a surprising way, Obama managed to elude the "politics as usual," cynicism of those who habitually believe they must choose "the lesser of two evils," or "hold my nose in the voting booth...

...Will Kmiec's argument prove winning in this economic climate...

...Among the baggage are those policies that Left and Right (and some moderates) consider matters of principle, not subject to compromise...

...These policies will have to be rescinded and remedied...

...First, there are the human rights organizations that have fought to expose, publicize, and change these policies...

...Whatever ideological views were being pinned on him by friend and foe had to be viewed with a skeptical eye...

...Some activists would like to see criminal charges brought against the highest officials...

...Though favored by this group, Obama faced hurdles...

...There is no doubt that Obama begins his first term with an enormous amount of support and goodwill...

...Among the most divisive are abortion, gay marriage, embryonic stem cell research, sex education, and conscience clauses...

...During the presidential campaign, Barack Obama and John McCain were invited to Rick Warren's Saddleback Church for backto-back conversations about where they stood on issues important to Warren and his conservative evangelical congregation...

...and no doubt, in many respects, he is their ally...

...Fourth, the now-traditional progressive (that is, since the seventies) Democratic coalition of labor leaders, civil rights activists, and reproductive rights organizations claimed Obama as one of their own...

...First, Obama ran an impressive campaign...

...Single-parent families got a lot of attention as models (for example, Obama's own mother...