Moving Left?: Bush's Decline and American Liberalism

...If one were to stop right there, these figures would indicate that liberalism still isn't much of a growth stock in American politics...

...This lack of political capital means that the GOP now has few options left with which to push its right-wing policies on a less and less interested public...

...That's why voters punished the GOP on the economy, even though the Bush administration did deliver reasonably good economic growth and relatively low unemployment...

...And they gained 321 state legislative seats to give them a 3,980-3,329 majority of the nation's state legislators, a 57 percent to 40 percent majority of the nation's state legislative bodies, and complete control of 24 state legislatures, compared to just 16 for the GOP...

...The importance of the economy to Democratic campaigns may also be seen by looking at campaign ad dollars...

...Special mention should be made of public views on moving toward universal health care coverage...

...This is true both because rejecting Bush administration unilateralism can reasonably be characterized as a move toward the left and because survey data consistently show that the public is now leaning strongly toward a multilateralist approach to foreign affairs...

...And in Missouri, where Democratic candidate Claire McCaskill echoed Casey's populist themes, with a special emphasis on health care, 45 percent of voters said the economy was extremely important, and these voters backed McCaskill over incumbent Jim Talent by 60 percent to 37 percent...

...And that's what counts...

...This is impressive in a question without prompts, where the respondent is free to bring up any issue whatsoever...

...cutting interest rates on student loans by 76 percent to 8 percent...

...But, the second-most mentions (about a fifth of the sample) went to universal health care...

...The same Web sites also carry other pieces on education, jobs and the economy, and globalization and trade that document the public's essentially progressive views in these areas as well...

...and broad tax reform that cuts rates for most, but generates a larger revenue stream...

...Moderates were even stronger for the Democrats, giving them a twenty-three point lead (61 percent to 38 percent), up from thirteen points in 2004 (56 percent to 43 percent) and just eight points in 2002 (53 percent to 45 percent...

...Indeed, not only does the question not seem strange, but an affirmative answer can be given to it...

...Indeed, the GOP is now so dependent on the votes of this group that a single-digit lead among these voters—as in 2006—almost guarantees defeat for the party...

...RUY TEIXEIRA is a Senior Fellow at both the Century Foundation and the Center for American Progress and, as well, a Fellow of the New Politics Institute...

...In Ohio, where Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown struck an explicitly populist note, 42 percent of voters said the economy was extremely important to their vote and these voters supported Brown over Republican incumbent Mike DeWine by a stunning 71 percent to 29 percent margin...

...And the University of Chicago's General Social Survey shows that those who attend church/synagogue once a year or less have increased from 29 percent to 38 percent of the population since 1972, while those who attend every week or nearly every week have declined from 41 percent to 33 percent...

...These results confirm at the voting booth what polls have been showing for quite a while—the center of the electorate is now much closer to the Democrats than the Republicans in terms of their policy preferences and values...

...They also gained six governors' houses, so they now have the majority of governorships, 28-22...

...The most widely mentioned issue by far was Iraq, of course...

...To begin with, consider the fact that polls taken during the campaign regularly indicated that the economy was the second most important concern of voters (behind Iraq...

...These young voters, now largely drawn from what is variously called "Generation Y" or the "Millennial Generation," show a political profile that puts them solidly in the Democratic camp...

...This figure assumes increased significance in light of recent Census data showing that single women are now a majority of all women in the United States...

...Another emerging Democratic constituency consists of professionals of all sorts, who in 2004, when most other groups were shifting Republican, gave the Democratic presidential candidate their highest level of support ever (63 percent to 37 percent...

...Distinctly progressive in both their social views and views on the role of government, they now favor the Democrats on party identification by twelve to thirteen points, making them the most proDemocratic generation in today's electorate...

...Finally, although they cannot (alas) be called a growth group in the electorate, union household voters once again turned out at high rates—making up nearly a quarter (23 percent) of voters—and giving Democratic House candidates a very strong 64 percent to 34 percent margin...

...First, they owe it to substantially increased support among the demographic groups that, as John Judis and I argued in The Emerging Democratic Majority, are laying the basis for a new Democratic majority...

...other" religion, 71 percent to 25 percent...

...direct negotiation of Medicare drug prices by the government by 76 percent to 14 percent...

...That, in turn, means that progressive policy views held by the public can more easily come to the fore and push the political debate to the left...

...In key Senate contests across the country, especially where candidates highlighted the country's continuing economic problems, Democrats also benefited greatly from voters who said the economy was central to their vote...

...I want to look at what happened last November, discuss what these voter shifts mean in terms of policy preferences, and assess what these developments mean for American liberalism as we look toward 2008 and beyond...

...I don't see any groundswell for a big pushback against the erosion of civil liberties...

...The 2006 election also witnessed heavy Democratic voting by the real growth groups in the American religious spectrum: the secuDISSENT / Spring 2007 59 lar, the nonobservant and the non-Christian...

...In Pennsylvania, where Democrat Bob Casey ran hard against big oil, big pharma, the insurance companies, and Bush's tax cuts for the rich, 38 percent said the economy was extremely important to their vote, and that group supported Casey over Republican incumbent Rick Santorum by 66 percent to 34 percent...

...But that does not mean there was no substantive leftward content to this election...

...If this trend continues, it will not matter very much what people call themselves...

...On election day, 81 percent of voters told exit pollsters they had just enough financially to get by or were falling behind, and 68 percent thought life for the next generation of Americans would not be better than today...

...Most of the issues were on the Democrats' so-called 100 hours agenda and were fairly modest in scope...

...To whom do Democrats owe this shift in their political fortunes...

...It is worth noting that it was among these groups and their close cousin, the moderately observant, that one sees the biggest shifts in the Democrats' direction in 2006, not among the much-ballyhooed, but still relatively small, white evangelical sector of the electorate...

...DISSENT / Spring 2007 63...

...Ads were classified by the issues they covered...

...The American public remains more incrementalist than oriented toward large-scale social engineering (though, on an issue such as health care, where incrementalism does not provide a viable fix, the public seems willing to make an exception...

...But one needn't stop right there...

...On election day, 39 percent of voters deemed the economy "extremely important" to their House vote, and those voters backed the 60 DISSENT / Spring 2007 Democrats by a wide 59 percent to 39 percent margin...

...Intriguingly, jobs and the economy (defined narrowly to exclude seniors' issues such as Medicare and Social Security) actually had the highest ad expenditures—higher even than corruption or Iraq...

...Can it reasonably be called a move to the left or is it merely an anti-incumbent interruption to the generally rightward drift in American politics...

...But now that political capital has evaporated precisely because of the DISSENT / Spring 2007 61 Iraq War...

...Poll after poll shows, for example, that the progressive (if limited) measures being pushed by congressional Democrats enjoy uniformly strong support from the public...

...There are a number of ways to deal with this revenue problem, such as repealing Bush's tax cuts for the rich...

...In the 2006 election, according to the exit polls, a large plurality of voters identified themselves as moderates (47 percent), while 32 percent said they were conservatives and just 20 percent said they were liberals...

...Sixty percent of respondents thought the Democrats would take action on this front and a substantially larger 79 percent said they would approve of such action if the Democrats took it...

...At the same time, issues such as Guantanamo, domestic surveillance, and the Patriot Act did not play much of a role in this voter disillusionment with Bush and the GOP...

...Independents supported House Democrats by eighteen points (57 percent to 39 percent), up from a mere four-point advantage in 2004 (50 percent to 46 percent) and a three-point deficit in 2002 (45 percent to 48 percent...

...In the November 2006 election, Democrats gained thirty House seats and six Senate seats, so they now control both chambers, 233-202 and 51 to 49, respectively...

...Indeed, the most recent polls suggest that it will not be long before Bush's approval rating on handling terrorism dips below 40 percent, an extraordinary development...

...and expanding federal funding of embryonic stem cell research by 56 percent to 26 percent...

...Liberalism Resurgent...

...The 2006 exit poll data—using postgraduates as a proxy for professionals —suggest that professionals' support for Democrats was once again at record high levels...

...For example, my estimates suggest that the slowly declining white working-class (non-college educated) group— Census data indicate that they are still around half of voters—supported House Republicans in 2006 by only a 53 percent to 45 percent margin, a sharp decline from the 15 to 20 percentage point margins in recent years...

...It is not that hard to find evidence that the public leans left on most domestic and economic issues, especially if the reference point is the conservative approach pushed by the Bush administration since 2001...

...Here are the relevant Democrat support rates for these groups in 2006: Jewish, 87 percent to 12 percent...

...Hence, the 2006 election results and the policy views described above...

...For example, in the December NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, raising the minimum wage was supported by 77 percent to 11 percent...

...That included an 89 percent to 10 percent margin among blacks and a very significant 69 percent to 30 percent margin among Hispanics, who moved back toward the Democrats with a vengeance after giving the GOP increased—though far from majority— support in 2002 and 2004...

...The significance of this strong support from such a hefty sector of the electorate should not be underestimated...

...It will be a more liberal country in terms of public policy and how Americans think about their society...

...As another indicator of the growing interest in, and support for, a universal coverage system, a January Los Angeles Times poll asked an openended question about the one or two priorities the public wanted Congress to address...

...In this sense, the Democrats' victory in 2006 cannot help but unleash some of these sentiments and promote a leftward dynamic in American politics...

...Continued suspicion of the effectiveness and efficiency of government programs is also a serious obstacle with which proponents of liberal policies must contend...

...Polls taken in the last weekend by Pew, ABC News/ Washington Post, and Newsweek confirmed this...

...Other polls show solid majorities in favor of repealing Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy and a persistent edge for the Democrats in dealing with taxes, formerly an area of large advantage for the GOP...

...The economy was one of the great unifying themes of this year's campaigns, as essentially all Democrats, including the victorious House candidates who have been labeled "conservative" because of their positions on social issues—for example, Heath Shuler, the former professional quarterback and victorious Democratic candidate in North Carolina's eleventh congressional district—promised to raise the minimum wage, oppose Social Security privatization, stand up to corporate interests, and get a fairer deal for the middle class...

...However, Gallup did ask about "legislation to provide healthcare insurance for those who do not have it...

...And generating sufficient revenue to cover the costs of liberal programs remains a challenge, because although the public may have lost its enthusiasm for cutting taxes, it remains shy about raising them...

...a focus on containing, rather than eliminating the budget deficit (as suggested by John Edwards...

...Democrats also did very well among women voters, especially single women voters, who backed Democratic House candidates by a 66 percent to 32 percent margin...

...and never attend, 67 percent to 30 percent...

...In 2006, these voters went Democratic by a twenty-two-point margin, 60 percent to 38 percent, up significantly from the already strong 55 percent to 44 percent Democratic majority among this age group in 2004...

...Indeed, Shuler, sort of the poster child for this alleged new breed of conservative Democrat, held a press conference the day after the election with arch-populist Brown on how defending workers' interests, especially on trade deals, helped him win his election...

...A study by the Campaign for America's Future tracked television advertising expenditures in eleven diverse Senate, House, and governors' races...

...Academic research suggests that party identification, once formed, remains stable across the lifespan, making this trend of enormous political significance...

...Another point to remember is that rejection of the Iraq War can itself be seen as a key indicator of a leftward shift...

...Looked at by partisanship and ideology, the big shifts toward the Democrats—as has been widely reported—were in the center of the electorate...

...The Democrats' impressive performance among these constituencies is only one side of the demographic story...

...The other side is their dramatically improved support among constituencies that have been going strongly Republican in recent elections...

...He is the author or co-author of five books, including The Emerging Democratic Majority, America's Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters, and The Disappearing American Voter...

...No one should underestimate the difficulties 62 DISSENT / Spring 2007 these options will present and, therefore, the amount of hard work and political struggle it will take to implement even a moderately robust progressive program...

...This is, in fact, what has been happening since the election...

...no religion, 74 percent to 22 percent...

...More on the public's broadly progressive views on health care may be found in my piece "What the Public Really Wants on Health Care," available on the Century Foundation and Center for American Progress Web sites...

...Furthermore, surely no single issue has contributed more to the Bush administration's ability to pursue a hard-right agenda than the war on terror—the political capital afforded by that issue has been the main reason Bush has been, until recently, so successful in turning the country to the right...

...All these voters supported the Democrats by wide margins...

...attend church/synagogue only a few times a year 60 percent to 38 percent...

...I would be remiss if I did not mention the remarkable levels of support for Democrats among young voters (those eighteen to twentynine...

...Evidently, a focus on America's very real economic problems and how to solve them will fall on sympathetic ears in the future...

...Among minority voters as a whole-21 percent of voters in 2006 and likely to rise to a quarter in the next ten years—Democrats received 77 percent support to 22 percent for the Republicans...

...Similarly, a post-election poll by Democracy Corps and the Campaign for America's Future found that jobs and the economy was cited by 26 percent of voters as their most or second-most important issue and those voters supported Democrats by a 63 percent to 36 percent margin...

...Certainly, it is hard to deny the anti-incumbent nature of the 2006 election and the extent to which the election was a referendum on the policies of the Bush administration, particularly the Iraq War...

...What does this shift toward the Democrats mean...

...All across the country, the voter movement described above delivered Democratic victories in Senate, House, gubernatorial, and state legislative races, turning purple states blue, blue states bluer, and even some red states— such as Colorado—a solid purple...

...The fact is that operationally moderates—the vast middle of American politics—are acting and thinking more and more like Democrats and liberals and less and less like Republicans and conservatives...

...So, yes, the country is moving to the left, but that does not mean that some sort of Great Society-style liberalism has suddenly reemerged...

...A gap of this size between the proportion of conservatives and liberals is fairly standard in polls and hasn't shown much sign of changing in recent years, despite the rejection of Bush-style conservatism documented above...

...What Does the Shift Mean...

...Nor was this voting pattern confined to House races...

...The CUNY Religious Identification survey indicates that the numbers of the non-Christian and of the purely secular doubled in the 1990s...

...Gallup tested a number of issues right before the election, asking respondents whether they thought the Democrats would take action on these issues if they took control of Congress and also asking whether they would approve of such action if the Democrats took it...

...eliminating tax cuts for oil companies by 59 percent to 25 percent...

...It is also true that, as many observers have stressed (see David Plotke in Dissent, Summer 2006), the raw numbers on the ideological leanings of Americans do not suggest that a liberal moment is imminent in American politics...

...THESE DATA vindicate the progressive critique of the Bush economy as delivering little in wage and income growth for the ordinary family, even as it ratcheted up insecurity around health care, retirement, and the availability of middle-class jobs...