High Stakes

...This is why our concern is equally great, that this opportunity could be lost...

...We don't have a dispute about rights but about trust...

...And it will continue to do this at any price...

...Twenty years...

...It would be a dangerous misperception to think that the United States is weak because of the present situation in Iraq and Afghanistan...

...Anyone familiar with recent Iranian history knows that its politics have been marked by a constant search for independence and for security from aggression and influence from its neighbors or from greater powers...

...And, by the way, the Natanz enrichment technology will not provide the nuclear fuel that will be needed in Busheer...

...Therefore I understand the desire for independence, security, and dignity...

...There is a unified position, held not only by Europe and the United States, but also within the Security Council and by the international community, that the risk of a breakthrough to nuclear weapons by Iran is unacceptable...

...I cannot believe that the G77 and even the members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference would accept such a development, because it would infringe upon their basic interests...

...We cannot understand the present urgency and time pressure that Iran appears to be under...

...If you would balance the concessions and rewards inherent in this proposal, it is very easy to see that in the framework of the civil use of nuclear power and access to sophisticated civil technology, Iran would realize a tremendous success...

...Iran has announced its intention to build a nuclear reactor capability for the production of twenty thousand megawatts of nuclear electricity in the next twenty years...

...All the legitimate dreams and wishes of your great nation could be realized if a pragmatic political course were chosen, based firmly on the principles of peace and regional and international cooperation...

...There is an offer on the table, which must not be rejected...

...From a European perspective, such a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, geopolitically speaking our neighbor region, would change our strategic security posture dramatically and force us into a new policy of effective deterrence...

...An anti-hegemonial coalition would be the immediate result...

...Israel is a member of the UN as are Iran and all the other member states...

...To bridge this existing gap of trust the E3+3 made a proposal, the likes of which have never before been made by major international powers...

...But there is a red line, where such a legitimate national policy threatens to transform itself into a hegemonial policy...

...But I think this positive future will only be realized if it is based on trust, transparency, cooperation, and mutual respect, and on the peaceful leadership of a great nation—not on hegemonial aspirations...

...But this initiative was undoubtedly also underwritten by the spirit of mutual respect and recognition...

...BUT ALLOW ME also to be candid about the negative option...

...And both sides have the option to declare negotiations a failure at any time...

...My country challenged this European system twice in the first half of the twentieth century...

...If there were to be a confrontation between the Security Council and Iran—and may God help us to prevent this from happening—the very future of the multilateral system and of the UN would be at stake...

...And for this Iran would need to develop its nuclear enrichment capabilities...

...But to set a positive process in motion, both sides should take a step back from their respective positions—a time out in the enrichment activities and a time out in the Security Council decision-making process...

...But there are other conflicts and serious challenges in this region too, and therefore it would be in the interest of all states and their peoples in the Middle East to develop a regional security system, which has to solve all the different legitimate security concerns and interests in the Middle East and to settle disputes in a peaceful way...

...And I strongly believe that a "Grand Bargain" is achievable, that is, a nuclear and a regional security agreement in exchange for full economic, technological, and scientific cooperation...

...JOSCHKA FISCHER is the former foreign minister of Germany and a visiting professor at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University...

...Iran's nuclear policy plays a central role here and in the future development of EuropeanIranian relations...

...I agree fully with this quote from Dr...

...Cooperation or confrontation are the alternatives, and, please, don't blame the messenger for the message...

...But the situation has changed for the better, as the common offer reflects...

...If the Security Council would not be able to solve this conflict, it would have a very negative effect on the whole international institutional framework and indeed threaten the functionality of the multilateral system...

...I would like to make clear that no one in the West disputes Iran's sovereign right to civil nuclear energy and the current E3+3 package that foresees civil nuclear energy reactors makes this unmistakably clear...

...As I mentioned before, the modern history of Iran is full of constant humiliation and interventions from outside...

...The European position is crystal clear: Europe will never accept a threat to the existence of the state of Israel...

...It is not acceptable, and it clearly goes against the UN Charter, to question the existence of another member state...

...Iran's civilization is admirable, and the achievements of your country in the development and modernization of the economy, technology, and society are impressive...

...If the future of the Middle East were to be defined by a very unstable balIRAN ance of power system, with its inherent hegemonial risks, complicated by a nuclear arms race, regional conflicts, and terrorist groups, its future would be terribly bleak...

...Allow me to state a rather pessimistic, but in my opinion, merely realistic introductory thesis: European-Iranian relations have already reached the point where a lack of clarity can no longer be tolerated if it is our common interest to develop and deepen our relations...

...Allow me to predict that even in the event of a possible crisis between the Security Council and Iran, the unity of the council would survive...

...We are at a crossroad, and the leadership of Iran must take a decision, perhaps one of historic proportions...

...Peace in the Middle East will only be possible if all sides in the Israeli-Palestinian and IsraeliArab conflict commit themselves to a two-state solution and a peaceful settlement of the border disputes and of other disputes...

...We had a bitter split within the international community about the question of whether to wage war against Iraq...

...At the beginning of the last century, Germany was the leading power of Europe, but we made the wrong decisions and ended in a complete disaster...

...This is why current European-Iranian relations depend not only on mutual respect and understanding, they depend primarily and above all on clarity of positions...

...Anti-Semitism is unacceptable to us...

...The vital interests of these powers would also be undermined by such a development...

...But it must also be very clear, that negotiations solely for the purpose of buying time will make no sense and are destined to fail...

...As I said before, there is no time pressure for Iranian enrichment capabilities and the closing of the fuel cycle...

...A policy of nuclearization, of confrontation with the UN, and of destabilization of the Middle East will lead us into a dark tunnel, in which I can see no light on the other side...

...And if we can move forward in the nuclear area to reach agreement, I believe that the implications of such progress will be positive and far-reaching...

...This offers a broad window of time for an agreement in the common interest...

...It is my conviction that, in a situation like this one, there is no greater risk than false political calculations based on misunderstanding and misinterpretation...

...For the time being, Iran is only constructing the light water reactor in Busheer, for which it signed an agreement with the Russian government about the long-term supply and return of nuclear fuel...

...and third, the serious normative differences in the understanding and the application of human rights and women's rights...

...And if we add again to these facts the secrecy with which the Iranian nuclear program was conducted over the years and the continuous concealing of crucial facts, such as Iran's cooperation with the notorious military nuclear technology dealer A.Q...

...And we experienced its benefits and its nightmares over the centuries and finally its definitive collapse in two world wars between 1914 and 1945...

...Iran, if it were to follow a political path of pragmatism and transparency based on its interests, could be one of the great winners (if not the great winner) in the Middle East...

...In diplomacy, a lack of clarity is one of the main virtues of a diplomat but there is one exception...

...Allow me also to discuss the issue of regional peace and security in the Middle East...

...And this is exactly the core of the latest proposal of the E3+3: that Iran should get access to the most sophisticated light water technology, an international guarantee of permanent access to nuclear fuel, and international cooperation in nuclear research...

...DISSENT / Winter 2007 n 43...

...I would not be disclosing a secret by telling you that it wasn't easy to reach such an agreement— with the United States in particular...

...Therefore Europe is engaged not only to defend the right of the state of Israel to exist but also to defend the right of the Palestinian people to have their own viable and democratic state, which lives peacefully side by side with Israel...

...And allow me to bring another aspect of a possible crisis between Iran and the Security Council to your attention...

...It is published here in English for the first time.—EDS...

...This is evident in three areas, which, from a European perspective, may jeopardize our relations: first, the Iranian nuclear program...

...Otto von Bismarck, perhaps the greatest German statesman of the nineteenth century, defined Germany's role in his century as either "hammer or anvil...

...Iran is one of the oldest states in the Middle East, which is not a region rich in old states...

...Ladies and gentlemen, It seems to me that today Iran is confronted with the question of whether your country will follow hegemonial aspirations or become a driving force for peace, stability, and progress in the Middle East...

...Iran is facing a very important decision and this decision will also define the future relations between Europe and Iran...

...Speeches about "erasing" Israel from the map or denying the facts of the crimes of the Holocaust will not contribute to improving European-Iranian relations and will not build trust on the European and Western side...

...Iran can develop its reactor capabilities with the agreement and support of Europe, the United States, Russia, China, and all the members of the UN Security Council...

...It would be the objective of this regional security system to create a structure of mutual arms control and disarmament, of verifying, trust building, and security cooperation...

...We are at a crossroad...

...In our assessment, your regional neighbors will not sit on the sidelines and applaud this step, but will also go nuclear...

...As I mentioned before, the Middle East is Europe's geopolitical neighbor and a key to our strategic security in the twenty-first century...

...My visit takes place during a difficult time—indeed an extremely tense and crisis-ridden time for foreign and security policy...

...second, Iran's policy in the Middle East conflict and— of particular significance for Germany— its fundamentally unacceptable rejection of Israel's right to exist...

...But there were positive developments also in the political, human rights, and cultural sectors...

...The interests of the other major global players— Russia, China, and India—shouldn't be misinterpreted...

...In the Middle East the United States is not only defending its interests and allies, but its role as the only global power...

...As I attempt today to present our position very clearly, please do not interpret this as impoliteness but as an expression of serious concern...

...History has shown that such crises can easily escalate and a random spark can lead to catastrophe...

...A rejection of the current offer will lead to an escalation of the conflict, as the decision in July 2006 of the UN Security Council clearly demonstrates...

...And twice we underestimated the strategic potential, the power, and the political will and decisiveness of the United States...

...And that is when it is predictable in advance that lack of clarity can cause the opposing side to make a false calculation, which in turn can lead to negative and irreparable consequences for its own or for the common interest...

...So long as these basic principles would be upheld, no one in the West could deny recognition of Iran's international and regional role...

...The negative developments in these three areas, above all the possible failure of negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, have already taken a negative toll on our trade and economic relations...

...Your country now has a great, in fact perhaps an exceptional, opportunity...

...The negotiations should take place within an agreed time frame, maybe in two or more steps, allowing both sides to evaluate the negotiation process...

...I would like to quote an Iranian expert: "What makes the nuclear discussion sensitive is that the nuclear technologies and the technologies related to the [nuclear] fuel cycle are particularly sensitive . . . .This is because having the fuel cycle capability also means that the country that possesses this capability is able to produce nuclear weapons, should that country have the political will to do so . . . .A country that possesses fuel cycle technology can enrich uranium, and the country that can enrich uranium to about 3.5 percent will also have the capability to enrich it about 90 percent...

...What was our strategic mistake...

...If we calculate our common interests care42 n DISSENT / Winter 2007 fully, based on the facts, on realism, and on the will to cooperation rather than confrontation, I think that the offer of the E3+3 deserves a serious and positive answer from the Islamic Republic of Iran...

...But Iran's nuclear ambitions have unified the international community completely...

...A new European system based on a peaceful balance of interests, common European institutions in the framework of the EU, and guaranteed security, produced by NATO and the transatlantic alliance, completely changed the course of German and European history for the better...

...Iran cooperated with the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq, based on its national interest...

...What we ask for is a longer delay, what we offer is unique and unprecedented, and both sides together should use this time frame to build trust and transparency, and also to reach a regional agreement and to normalize their relations...

...But allow me one remark about our own historical experience...

...Europe developed the balance of power system after our religious wars in 1648...

...But it should not be forgotten that all the other major powers also have vested interests in the Middle East...

...This would be a perfect recipe for war and destruction, but not for peace, progress, and development...

...This would be a nightmare in this very unstable and dangerous region, and I seriously doubt that such an additional destabilization of the region would be in the well-considered security interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran...

...When the British, French, and German governments decided in 2003 to react positively to President Mohammed Khatami's letter and subsequently to send their foreign ministers to Tehran to negotiate a nuclear compromise, the main motivating factor was deep concern that, in the aftermath of the Iraq War, no chance for avoiding another military confrontation in the region should be missed...

...full political normalization...

...But then there would be a nuclear arms race throughout the Middle East, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt...

...The decisive question for us, however, has to this day not been answered: if Iran truly intends to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes only, why does it place so much value on uranium enrichment by means of a heavy water reactor that is also useful for the production of plutonium...

...Whether anyone likes it or not, the United States is and will be the key player...

...I do not wish to dwell 40 n DISSENT / Winter 2007 too long on the past...

...This national trait is the reason why we know only too well that there hardly exists a rule without an exception...

...I strongly believe that only a viable two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians, essentially based on the borders of 1967, can bring peace in the Middle East...

...We Germans are known throughout the world as a people with an abiding love of rules...

...This period was very important for the improvement of our relations...

...From the perspective of the West, the stakes in the nuclear dispute with Iran are very high...

...In addition to the uranium enrichment activities and the construction of the heavy water reactor at Arak able to produce nine-kilogram, weapon-grade plutonium annually, which will most likely be completed in 2009, Iran is pursuing a publicly celebrated missile program with a focus on longer distances and greater precision...

...IWOULD LIKE TO extend my warmest thanks to the Center for Strategic Research for inviting me to speak about the state and future of European-Iranian Relations...

...Unfortunately, with the new Iranian government, these relations are far more difficult and hold much more potential for conflict...

...Allow me to conclude that this combination, under no circumstances, makes sense for a civil nuclear program...

...For many years Europe has been engaged in an effort to build a true partnership with Iran...

...If there were to be a positive agreement, this would mark a beginning, not an end...

...Hassan Rohani, from his speech of September 30, 2005, here in Tehran, when he addressed the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council about Iran's nuclear program...

...It is for this reason that today the international circles are discussing this capability with an extraordinary degree of sensitivity...

...For Iran, the lack of respect for and recognition of its independence, its ancient civilization, its strategic potential, and the talent and capabilities of its people has been particularly humiliating and indeed insulting throughout its modern history...

...But all depends now on the decision of the Islamic Republic of Iran...

...In the second half of the twentieth century, it turned out that he was completely wrong, because this had never been a serious alternative...

...The result was not very promising from an Iranian point of view, I agree...

...Our relations have a huge potential, and Iran can play a key role as one of the important powers, not only in the region but also on the international stage...

...And I ask you also not to make the messenger responsible for the message, particularly when I outline the consequences that the respective positions have, because these consequences might be of a negative and very serious nature...

...and security guaranties...

...We followed hegemonial aspirations that relied on military might and prestige, and we miscalculated the anti-hegemonial instincts of Europe...

...So I am not entitled to be a history teacher...

...It is a great—and, one hopes, not the last and missed—opportunity for mutual progress in our relations and for peace...

...No one in the West wishes to deprive Iran of its sovereign right to use nuclear power for civil purposes...

...From the start of the reform policies of DISSENT / Winter 2007 • 39 IRAN former Iranian President Khatami, with his visits to several European countries, including a successful state visit to Germany in 2000, EuropeanIranian relations developed positively and in mutual interest, particularly in the economic sector...

...I address this distinguished group today not in any official capacity but as someone with a great deal of interest in the developments in the region and as one of the former negotiators in the E3-Iranian nuclear dossier who is interested in the improvement of our relations...

...One should also not forget the far-reaching political implications of this offer...

...Regrettably, the initiative failed to bring the desired success, though the Europeans took it very seriously in spite of their very realistic evaluation of the facts...

...We are neighbors, and our goal is a peaceful and prosperous neighborhood...

...It therefore seems particularly important to me that in the face of these tensions and crises, the parties involved do not cease to try to understand the interests, motives, and intentions of the other side...

...Iranian culture and history are much older than those of Europe and Germany...

...Let me explain to you our strategic analysis of a possible military nuclearization of Iran...

...But now the United States has joined the European initiative together with Russia and China, and this offers a unique opportunity for a strategic, perhaps historic, turning point in the relations between Iran and the West...

...And the very negative consequences of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East on the level of terrorist and asymmetric threats should also not be underestimated...

...Khan and the P2 centrifuge technology (even after the signing of the agreement with the three European countries)—kindly allow me to draw IRAN the only obvious conclusion, without wishing to be impolite: what we have here is not a dispute between Iran and the West about Iran's rights, but a very serious lack of trust founded on serious doubts about Iran's intentions...

...An openly declared nuclear arms race would therefore change the symmetric and asymmetric balance of power completely, and some of the regional powers, not only Israel, would see such a development as an exDISSENT / Winter 2007 n 41 IRAN istential threat...