Fool's Gold of the Left

...In the long run though, Hispanics' growing share of the population will substantially increase their share of the active electorate...

...More nonvoters voting would mean substantially more voters who are liberal-leaning, which would mean, in turn, substantially more liberal politics and politicians...

...As with union members and blacks, then, so with Hispanics...

...They are also likely to have more education...

...Moreover, both Census data and National Election Study (NES) data, where question wording has been stable, show the union percent of voters fluctuating in a narrow range between 1988 and the present (17 percent to 21 percent in the Census data, 18 percent to 21 percent in the NES data...

...electorate—just over onetenth— so the impact of whatever turnout increases can be generated will be further limited...

...That was still an impressive performance in a year in which overall turnout went down, but it illustrates just how difficult it is to produce a large overall increase, even in a favorable situation where mobilization efforts are deemed successful...

...The current Democratic coalition, which most emphatically is not a majority, is already doing a fair job of mobilizing these voters...

...And the voting share of black men remained about the same: 4 percent MISPLACED HOPE FOR VOTER TURNOUT of the active electorate...

...Although the support of Hispanics for Democrats has been considerably less staunch than that of blacks, and in some areas (for example, Florida) is in fact quite weak, overall support levels of Hispanics for Democrats are still quite high—in the 60 percent to 70 percent range...

...Election after election, for offices high and low, black voters overwhelmingly support Democrats by 80 percent to 90 percent or more...

...A perennial source of Democratic hope, black turnout is just as perennially misunderstood...

...But they do not provide the answer to the quest for a new coalition...

...It could always do better, of course...

...In addition, they remain a relatively small part of the U.S...

...So, what would pave the road...

...An optimistic answer to the first part of this question was suggested by reports of dramatically increased Hispanic turnout in the 1996 election...

...This interpretation is supported by Bureau of the Census data that show turnout among union members actually declining from 1994 to 1998, pretty much in line with the population-wide decline in turnout between the two elections...

...Moreover, this bias, at least in terms of class, has been getting worse over time...

...But as long as people on the left can convince themselves that getting more of those pesky nonvoters to the polls will solve America's political problems, they can avoid this rather thorny and uncomfortable challenge...

...perhaps some years in college, maybe even an associate degree, and those in the workforce are much more likely to be female...

...But again, the more reliable Census data suggest that the change in the Hispanic vote was much less dramatic...

...Consistent with this, the turnout rate of blacks in 1998 was only two percentage points lower than the rate of the population as a whole...

...Although this is good news for Democrats, there are limits to how much bigger a payoff the party can get from this voter group...

...This implied a strong increase in Hispanic turnout of seven percentage points (in an election where overall turnout went down six points) and an overall increase in the Hispanic vote of almost two million...

...Since nonvoters are now over half the potential (age-eligible) electorate, even in presidential elections (they are almost two-thirds in offyear elections), these well-known characteristics of nonvoters have led many on the left to conclude that the key to realigning American politics is getting more of them to the polls...

...they are invisible to journalists and commentators who define our national discourse—and, apparently, to the left, which prefers a strategy of "round up the usual suspects...

...A successful progressive coalitionbuilding strategy needs to keep Hispanics as part of the base, but concentrating on increasing Hispanic representation among voters isn't a plausible method for attaining a new Democratic coalition...

...3) nonvoters' policy preferences, controlled for demographics, are remarkably similar to voters...

...If we assume that what the Democrats need is to raise their average percentage of the vote from current levels (49 percent to 50 percent) to a "normal" level of perhaps 53 percent, such an increment makes a substantial contribution to getting them there...

...Part of the reason for this is that blacks are no longer as underrepresented as they used to be among voters, and it is therefore more difficult to produce large increases in turnout— the easiest voters to mobilize have already been mobilized...

...It may not be a lot of fun and may even strike some as "politically incorrect," but, in the long run, it'll be a lot more rewarding...

...The problem is that they are already well mobilized...

...Given the very modest progress of even the new leaders of the AFL-CIO in increasing union density (so far, they have only managed to slow and, most recently, stop the decline in unionization), a blueprint for a new progressive majority should not count on much beyond the current base of union household voters to work with...

...The 1998 Census data tell essentially the same story...

...At present rates of partisan support, this should—as with our presumptive restoration of unions to their 1960s levels, but with a lot more confidence in the growth of the underlying base—increase the average Democratic share of the vote by about one percentage point...

...2) partisan biases by class, especially compared to other countries, are not overwhelming (biases in political attitudes even less so), so the relatively poor and less educated nature of the nonvoting pool doesn't make it as liberal as people generally suppose...

...This is the reverse of the way it should be...

...Possibly, but it would mean that these voters would have to increase DISSENT / Summer 2000 n 45 MISPLACED HOPE FOR VOTER TURNOUT their already high turnout rates by twenty to twenty-five percentage points—a very tough proposition...

...Increasing union turnout rates by even modest amounts in individual elections is not that easy...

...And instead of working in manufacturing, the new white working class is much more likely to work in an office with a computer or at similar service-sector jobs...

...At current rates of partisan loyalty, making up that post-1960 decline in union household voters would produce a corresponding increase in the average Democratic vote of around one percentage point, in both the congressional and presidential vote...

...48 n DISSENT / Summer 2000...

...Could union household participation be driven to 75 percent or 85 percent...

...Although they can be found in every stratum of society, there is no doubt they are disproportionately poor, less educated, black, and Hispanic—generally viewed as liberal and Democratic-leaning groups...

...Again, such an increase would be significant in the context of developing a normal national Democratic vote of around 53 percent and, given the regional concentration of Hispanics, would have larger effects in several Southwestern and Western states...

...Despite reports of a huge surge in the Hispanic vote, again usually based on exitpoll findings, the Census data indicate modest increases of about a percentage point compared with 1994 voting levels, both in Hispanic turnout and in their share of active voters...

...But a serious progressive strategy must be based on reaching the current electorate, not a projected future one...

...But how possible would this be on a regular basis...

...Indeed, as with blacks, the Census data say that Hispanic turnout actually went down by a couple of percentage points...

...and (5) for mathematical reasons, it is a great deal easier to change an election outcome by switching the preferences of existing voters than by adding new voters...

...Union household turnout rates in 1998, for example, were 53 percent, compared to 40 percent among the voting-age population as a whole and just 37 percent for nonunion voters...

...But they don't receive much attention these days...

...But, even if it did, there are arithmetic limits to the likely effect...

...Even after controlling for education, income, race, and other characteristics, there's still a substantial union effect on participation—union voters, all else equal, simply participate more...

...His latest book (with Joel Rogers) is America's Forgotten Majority: Why The White Working Class Still Matters...

...Their loyalties shift the most from election to election and, in so doing, determine the winners in American politics...

...As a very DISSENT / Summer 2000 n 47 MISPLACED HOPE FOR VOTER TURNOUT rough estimate, this might increase the Hispanic share of the voting electorate to about 8 percent...

...Of course, these non-college educated whites are "not your father's" white working class...

...Large increases in particular state or local races are a different issue...

...the left should be taking the lead in strenuously arguing for the centrality of reaching this "forgotten majority" and building a cross-racial, class-based coalition...

...Then again, Democrats might try to increase the number of people in union households by making it easier for workers to join unions...

...Defenders of the turnout thesis might say, "OK, maybe general mobilization of nonvoters won't do the trick, so we'll be selective...

...But the overall increase in turnout was only about three percentage points more than in 1994, and the increase in black representation among voters was about half that...

...In the short run, the basic racial structure of the voting electorate is going to change only slowly...

...Take union household voters: increasing their turnout rates would surely be an unambiguous good for progressives...

...Similarly, 1998 was generally considered to be an exceptionally good year for black turnout, as blacks mobilized against the Republican Congress and in support of President Clinton...

...According to widely cited data from exit polls, Hispanic representation among voters almost doubled (from 2.3 percent in 1992 to 4.5 percent in 1996...

...Black voters offer a similarly limited resource for Democrats and progressives...

...Instead of bluecollar work, this new white working class is more likely to be doing low-level white collar and service work...

...Unfashionable as it may be in left political circles these days, the answer is, simply and inescapably, the white working class, defined as whites without a four-year college degree...

...They are also the majority—about 55 percent of voters and of the adult population...

...Historically, the real change over time in the political role of union voters has been driven neither by declining Democratic support rates nor by declining turnout rates, but by the declining relative weight of unions in the workforce and therefore in American society as a whole...

...Given these support levels, expanding Hispanic representation among active voters would be a clear boon to Democrats...

...But this strategy also faces severe limitations...

...All the turnout in the world can't overcome grim electoral data like this...

...This doesn't mean that union turnout rates can't be bumped up in particular elections or, especially if the election is close one, that they can't play a very important role...

...The AFL-CIO tried very hard to do that in 1998 and pointed to exit-poll data that showed that the proportion of union household voters increased from 14 percent in 1994 to 23 percent in 1998...

...But it seems unlikely and infeasible that dramatically increased union turnout will play more than a minor role in enlarging the current progressive coalition...

...It's time for the left to wake up, stop being dazzled by fool's gold, and address the central challenge of American progressive politics...

...Ru TEIXEIRA is a senior fellow at the Century Foundation...

...The result of not doing so...

...Instead of trying to bring all the nonvoters to the polls, we'll concentrate on expanding the Democratic/ liberal base: union household members, blacks, and Hispanics [currently about onethird of all voters...

...For example, the percentage of the workforce that was unionized in 1960 was at least nine points higher than it is today, and the share of union household members among voters was, in rough correspondence, about 46 n DISSENT / Summer 2000 seven points higher...

...These voters are the real "swing" in American politics...

...And so with blacks, as with union household members, it's not plausible to think that their participation rates could be increased dramatically...

...Their staunch support for the Democratic Party is one of the great, undisputed political facts of our time...

...But, again, how much and how fast could this representation be increased...

...Blacks are clearly a central part of the Democratic base, and it's essential that the Democrats retain them...

...There are a number of reasons why a strategy based on generally increasing turnout just won't work (in the sense of producing substantially more liberal political outcomes), including: (1) the nonvoting pool, while not a faithful representation of the entire population, is hardly a monolith of the disadvantaged...

...Among the fourfifths of these voters who are not in union households, the Democrats received only 41 percent support in the 1996 presidential election and just 39 percent support in the 1998 congressional election...

...FI ASIER SAID than done, however...

...4) nonvoters are particularly likely to disregard partisan and other preferences and surge in the direction of the candidate who appears to be winning...

...This difference was small enough that, even with this somewhat lower turnout rate, the representation of blacks among voters and among the age-eligible electorate was roughly equal (about 11 percent in each case...

...A simple and compelling story...

...But, in economic terms, they are not so different from the white working class of previous generations— same problems, same hopes, same dreams...

...Turning this trend in the other direction would be a considerable boon to the Democrats...

...Increasing turnout is the fool's gold of the left and diverts attention from the real challenge faced by any sort of progressive politics: winning over more white, working-class voters to the side of active, strong government...

...In the end, it is certainly possible that increased organizing efforts may yield a significant dividend of increased unionization and consequently increased union voters...

...After the 1996 presidential election, for example, some argued that black male turnout had taken a huge jump, underscoring the possibilities of a mobilization strategy...

...According to Census projections, the Hispanic share of the voting-age population should grow more than 50 percent over the next two decades— rising from a little under 10 percent today to about 12 percent in 2008, finally reaching 15 percent by the year 2020...

...All of these points are developed in detail in my 1992 Brookings book, The Disappearing American Voter...

...Indeed, controlling for other demographics (education, income, and so on), data from this and other elections show that blacks are, at this point, more likely, not less likely, to vote than whites...

...BECAUSE HISPANICS increased their proportion of the population between 1992 and 1996 and because Hispanic turnout went down less than the rest of the population in an abysmally low turnout year, they still increased their share in the electorate—albeit more modestly than exit polls suggested—from just under 4 percent to just under 5 percent (an increase of about 700,000 votes overall and just 156,000 votes in California, where the most dramatic changes in the Hispanic vote were supposed to have occurred...

...But these are long-run changes...

...However, as the Voter News Service exit pollsters have themselves acknowledged, most of this change is probably attributable to changes in their question in 1998, which made it more likely that union household voters would report their union affiliation...

...But these data, based on exit polls, were contradicted by the more reliable Census data showing that black male turnout actually declined (by four points, a bit more than the three-point decline among black women...

...Given these support levels, it's close to pure electoral gold for the Democrats to increase the black vote...

...Too bad it's wrong—not only wrong, but positively harmful...

...sO, EXPANDING the Democrats' existing base, at least anytime soon, won't pave the road to a new progressive majority...