Politics beyond black and white

...Despite these failings, however, Dinkins ran an extremely close race...

...They must be a central building block in any multiracial liberal coalition...

...On November 2, 1993, Rudolph Giuliani defeated David Dinkins to become New York City's third Republican mayor in this century...

...Viewing these events and the daily life of the city through the lens of a severe recession, the electorate concluded that the condition of the neighborhoods was worsening, the homeless, panhandlers, and squeegee men were threatening public spaces, and that the mayor was not handling these matters with the authority they wanted...

...Though Latinos account for roughly 15 percent of the Democratic electorate, they are plagued by low turnout, little awareness of their own leaders, and a low regard for them...

...A Latino politician will certainly run...

...To understand why, we need to examine the reasons for the Dinkins administration's failure to consolidate and expand its electoral base...

...If they do not, and if the election is not polarized along racial lines, the long-standing Catholic/Jewish competition may reassert itself in the Democratic primary...

...Though white Catholics are the largest group after blacks, with roughly 18 percent of the Democratic primary vote, they already favor Giuliani most heavily...

...In some non-trivial sense, blacks have become part of the political establishment...

...The most likely Latino candidate, Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer, will, however, draw well not only from Latinos but also from black, Catholic, and even Jewish regular Democrats...

...What other black leaders do in this case will be extremely important...

...In such cities, multiracial liberal coalitions can succeed only by drawing on white liberals and Latinos, as well as African Americans...

...In retrospect, the narrow margin of SPRING • 1994 • 281 Notebook Dinkins's loss is a testament to the persistence of white liberalism in New York...

...In most cities without black majorities, immigration is mak 282 • DISSENT Notebook ing the population more diverse even as non-Hispanic whites become a numerical minority...

...Even though African Americans might make up about a third of the Democratic primary electorate, no likely black candidate could count on winning all of that vote or of attracting wide support outside the black community...

...In cities where blacks became the majority of the electorate during or before the 1980s, descriptive representation is no longer the issue...

...If a sufficient number of black leaders focus instead on how to construct a progressive alliance that crosses racial and ethnic boundaries, they will significantly enhance the prospects for a progressive Democratic victory...

...Since liberals do not think that Giuliani's approach—more jails and more arrests— will change the situation, it behooves them to develop proposals that might actually have an impact on crime and the fear of crime...

...The best-known Democrat from this background, City Council Speaker Peter Vallone, is also not likely to make the race...

...Although Dinkins had put thousands of new cops on the beat and could point to a lessening of the violent crime rate in recent years, the media relentlessly focused on the innocent kids felled by drive-by shootings or the death of a dedicated Red Hook school principal caught in a crossfire between drug dealers...

...Fore 284 • DISSENT most among them is the perception that crime is rampant, the streets unsafe, inter-group relations uncivil, and the quality of life decaying...

...If it will be hard for Giuliani to maintain the Koch coalition, it will be equally hard to rebuild a multiracial, multi-ethnic liberal coalition to oppose him...

...Just as Dinkins's election was the greatest achievement of his generation of black leaders, his defeat spells the end of its ability to shape events...

...Proponents of such a coalition must also address the issues that deeply concern all voters, but especially middle-class white voters...

...Dinkins attempted to address these issues without political success...

...But where will that candidate come from...

...Although renewed economic growth may help him, the city's fiscal difficulties will require actions that are sure to be unpopular with many whose support he needs...

...On the other hand, blacks in New York City and many other cities now have relatively high rates of registration and turnout, elect representatives in proportion to their population size, and are more likely to have public jobs than more rapidly growing minority groups such as Latinos, Asians, and other immigrants...

...With about 13 percent of the Democratic electorate, white liberals will provide his main competitors in the likely form of Manhattan Borough President Ruth Messinger and Public Advocate Mark Green, Jewish Manhattanites with firm progressive credentials...

...Curtis Chase, president of one of the city's most successful reform Democratic clubs, observed, The margin of the mayoral election was only as close as it was because a great many white Democrats voted for Dinkins with the most tightly gritted teeth imaginable . . . you don't have to be Jim Sleeper to recognize that liberalism is clearly not speaking to the white middle class, or the remnants of the white working class, or the burgeoning immigrant class . . . or even many of the Brownstone Bourgeoisie...

...Such bargaining as will occur is likely to be organized by potential candidates, and will thus be partial, secretive, and serial, rather than open and inclusive...

...Liberals find this difficult, because public employee unions and other groups supported by public money provide much of the funding, campaign workers, and other resources that advance the liberal Democratic cause...

...Although many black political leaders of the baby-boom generation have great promise, none is well known across the city's black neighborhoods or can claim the allegiance of all their leaders...

...Whether the regular Democratic party organizations can provide support for him will be an interesting test of whether their oft-reported demise is in fact real...

...Those who would put together a progressive coalition of white liberal, other Jewish, and black voters, together with elements of the Latino and white Catholic population, thus have their work cut out...

...Even though his administration poured political capital and tax money into increasing the size of the police force, the electorate did not perceive the crime situation to be improving or credit Dinkins for his efforts...

...To some extent, Dinkins's failure was tactical...

...Finally, since the Democrats are not likely to nominate a black candidate for mayor in 1997, Giuliani will not attract the level of Democratic defection that helped elect him in 1993...

...The struggle for black empowerment has been, and continues to be, a defining element in the democratization of American urban society...

...Indeed, native-born blacks and their children may also make up a declining proportion of cities such as New York, Los Angeles, or Miami...

...Unlike the regular Democrats, these groups lack a forum in which to negotiate their differences, strike bargains, and unite behind a single candidate...

...The evolution of black political leadership will have a major impact on whether such a coalition can be fashioned in New York City...

...They are moving beyond a politics of black and white into an environment in which forming a majority electoral coalition, much less a durable governing coalition, will be a far more complicated task...

...They must find ways to employ the young men who commit most crimes, strengthen the ability of neighborhoods to control threatening behavior in public spaces, and minimize the risks of those who are now most exposed to criminal behavior...

...With the possible exception of Charles Rangel, none of Dinkins's peers has the standing to win a mayoral election...

...Many black leaders are angry over Dinkins's defeat and are threatening to establish a third party that would punish white defectors...

...Since the two groups are roughly evenly matched, black voters would then determine the outcome...

...Despite the poor prospects for victory in the 1997 primary, a black candidate like Al Sharpton will probably run simply to claim the power inherent in a large if not decisive black vote...

...Dinkins did not lose the election only because of his weak performance in minority and white liberal neighborhoods, however, but also because white voters living outside Manhattan turned out in large numbers and favored Giuliani...

...In the next four years, Mayor Giuliani faces a mirror image of the political challenge that confronted David Dinkins four years ago: how to bring into his fold new constituencies that have life situations and political outlooks different from and to some extent in conflict with those of his core supporters...

...Jewish voters living outside Manhattan, at roughly 10 percent of the Democratic electorate, are its waning political establishment...

...This cannot be done on a platform that appears to favor blacks over other groups...

...Black voters have repeatedly shown that they will not vote for candidates simply because they are black...

...By mobilizing white Catholic and Jewish supporters and broadening his base just enough, Giuliani revitalized the conservative political alignment fashioned by Ed Koch in the 1980s...

...As they work on such issues, those seeking to forge a new, transracial liberal coalition would do well to balance their reliance on public employee unions by also involving local voluntary organizations, churches, and block clubs...

...Although the 1993 election closely paralleled the 1989 race between the two, small shifts in turnout and preference produced a large . difference in the outcome...

...New York and many other large cities are entering a critical period of their political development...

...The best-known politician from this background may be Alan Hevesi, recently SPRING • 1994 • 283 Notebook elected comptroller, who is also not likely to risk this office in a bid for the mayoralty...

...Although it is hard to tell who will prevail, it seems likely that the competition will come down to a Latino candidate and a white liberal...

...Each will probably produce one or more candidates for the 1997 primary...

...Only one, David Paterson, has run for citywide office, and his campaign did not achieve much visibility in 1993...

...If both run, they will undermine each other...

...In descending order of size within the Democratic primary electorate, four constituencies might generate such a candidate: white Catholics, Latinos, white liberals, and Jews who do not identify themselves as liberals...

...It is doubtful that any of them could win the 40 percent of Democratic primary votes needed to avoid a runoff against other candidates...

...Now, white minorities influence which of several competing black candidates will win office, as in the most recent Detroit mayoral election...

...Only in a few more cities are blacks likely to become a clear majority of the electorate in the next decade...

...Disappointingly low turnout among African-American voters and a decline in support among other groups defeated Dinkins, the city's first African-American mayor, after only one term...

...Yet if they are to restore legitimacy to the notion of positive government, they must find ways to make it more responsive to its customers—perhaps through further decentralization and greater accountability to local communities...

...The Dinkins mayoralty never created a way or a place for backers like the public employee unions, the reform political clubs, communitybased organizations, and black churches to meet regularly and interact on equal terms...

...Just as Dinkins needed to add moderate Jews and white Catholics to his black, Latino, and white liberal base, Giuliani needs to convince white liberals, Latinos, and even some conservative blacks to join his white ethnic base...

...Moreover, he appears to be having difficulty convincing such people that he has their interests at heart and that he will construct an administration that includes them...

...The fate of Giuliani's mayoralty will depend to a considerable degree on how he deals with them...

...This near-win is cold comfort for those who would build a renewed liberal coalition...

...Daily News columnist Jim Sleeper has argued in the New Republic (November 1, 1993) that mayors such as Giuliani, Ed Rendell of Philadelphia, or Richard Riordon of Los Angeles can form a "Rainbow II" coalition of whites, Asians, Latinos, and others on a platform of "commercial deregulation, better public safety, less onerous taxation, and tougher union contracts...

...In Giuliani's case, this will be much easier to say than do...

...If they unite behind such a candidacy, then the ultimate Democratic victor would inherit a deeply divided party...

...The mayor also seemed to be relying on an increased black electorate that never materialized...

...This essay is from the afterword to the new paperback edition of the author's A Phoenix in Ashes...

...Liberals must also acknowledge public dissatisfaction with government performance and the widespread view that people on the public payroll run government for their own benefit...

...It is a period that desperately needs new vision, new leaders, and a thorough dialogue among the potential partners in the new liberal coalition...

...The Citizen, newsletter of the Central Brooklyn Independent Democrats, January 1994) Race, of course, will continue to be a major source of difficulty for urban liberals...

...Mayor Dinkins's term was marked by persistent inter-group conflict in Washington Heights, the Korean grocery boycott in East Flatbush, and the Crown Heights clash between blacks and Hasidic Jews...

...Most of all, voters thought the city was growing more dangerous, and saw street crime as the major issue in the race...

...Yet African Americans are the most reliably Democratic of any voting group and the largest single racial/ethnic component of the electorate in New York City...

...On the one hand, African Americans have historically been underrepresented in urban politics and still face discrimination in housing and the labor market...

...The creation of a better forum should be high on the agenda for those who would forge a multiracial liberal coalition...

...While this anger may abate, the Afrocentric feeling that feeds it will not...

...Alternatively, a black candidate running on racial appeals might make a deal with the ultimate victor, thereby burdening him or her with the perception of overly favoring blacks...

...Other groups sometimes interpret blacks' attempt to consolidate and build on these gains as blocking their own advance...

...If many black leaders endorse a non-black candidate in 1997, black support will be pivotal to that candidate's victory in the general election as well as the primary...

...Except for the liberals, who live in areas represented by reform clubs, these constituencies tend to be associated with the regular Democratic party organizations...

...It also cannot be done when the electorate is polarized along racial lines, since blacks will regularly come up on the short side...

...This is particularly important because urban politics is less and less "politics in black and white...