Turning Point in Hungary

...It is not going to be easy to find a policy of recovery either...

...At the May 1988 extraordinary party conference, Kaddr lost his office of general secretary, which he had held for almost thirty-two years...

...including Yugoslavia and Poland) and keep growing...

...We have to start by stating a historical fact...

...These differences of opinion are inevitable and natural...

...And finally the people were allowed cautiously to feel out the holes and cracks in the wall of official regulations, so that by having found them they could improve their lot, or at least compensate for their losses...

...If there's a delay, it's because a few editors are reading your article...

...Such a dialogue legitimizes the leader, endows him with recognition without entailing any binding obligations...

...Let us recall the mood of the masses at the beginning of the eighties when in some Eastern European countries the economic catastrophe had already occurred: "We Hungarians are better, harderworking, more adroit...

...In the population's perception the West may come to mean creditors' coercion: The package programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to limit consumption, Neckerman department stores for those who have foreign currency accounts, and empty grocery stores for those who do not...

...The defeated society had no political groups capable of criticizing the consolidation determined from above and countering it with a proposal of reconciliation from below...

...We simply have to face them soberly...

...The weakened leadership is in need of some sort of authority external to it...

...Although a set of wide-ranging Translated by GABOR FOLLIMUS 0 To Our Contributors: A few suggestions: (1) Be sure to keep a copy of your ms—the mails aren't always reliable...

...Encouraged by the resulting chaos and disarray, political organizations, including once disbanded but now recreated parties, appeared in the arena...

...The questions concerned (1) the crisis in Hungary, (2) the evaluation of the reform programs originating from independent sources, and (3) the authors' own reform proposals...

...This dual bind, however, imposed limitations on the regime's consolidation course...

...The Soviet-style model of .existential security and minimizing conflicts had to be realized within an economic system essentially unchanged since 1948...

...In this system the macroeconomic processes have been regulated through administrative, hierarchical commands and not by market regulators...

...As always, it is social contract...

...But simply try to break into the political arena...

...As we're not an academic journal, we prefer that they, wherever possible, be dropped altogether or worked into the text...

...But the country's internal confusion will be SPRING • 1989 • 237 ffs overshadowed by its loss of external orientation...

...But I am also aware that mere conversation can become negotiation only when the two sides are backed by political forces...

...This is not a blueprint for a new, superior social formation, superseding all others in world history...

...It is not certain that all reformers agree, but I believe this summary rather accurately reflects the intentions of the program "Renewal and Reform" and is in harmony with the basic ideas of the Beszilii* manifesto Social Contract...

...And with the same sobriety we must assess those conditions that constrain our first steps...

...No one in this country has anything to say to those in power that is not of equal concern to the entire population...

...Still, this is our only chance for the next generations...

...so many federations will represent so many interests that our heads will spin trying to keep track of them...

...And we should not shy away from recalling the more sophisticated intellectual version of these platitudes: "In Eastern Europe two alternatives for creating civil society have been tested: the Polish and the Hungarian...

...Can One Be a Reformer...

...The chance for the former to happen year, Hungary has two-digit inflation, and seems to be slim...

...Consequently, among those groups that determine the general public mood—the elite of the working class and the mid-level white-collar workers—no psychological turnaround took place...

...Poverty became once again a widespread concern, but only for the traditionally poor strata, while those segments of the population crucial to political stability were left unaffected...

...and in the restoration of the internal norms of science and culture...

...It must be demonstrated that such an econo-socio-political system would not be in conflict with the people's sense of justice: It would not leave the indigents to their fate...

...it is obvious that we cannot expect cures for our ills from that direction...

...Nonetheless, as long as it could, the regime continued the policy of avoiding conflicts even during the time of austerity...

...It is simply not possible simultaneously to meet the challenges of the world economy and to provide the population with administrative guarantees of a life without losses and conflicts...

...A process by which ideology would be excised step by step from culture and science was tolerated...

...A Crisis of Consolidation This crisis is the crisis of the regime's consolidation course...

...If a breakthrough could be achieved on this point, it would significantly decrease the danger that reformers will drift into a dubious role on the pretext of dialogue...

...P.S.: Since the above text was written and published, the political landscape of Hungary has been changed in important ways...

...The party leadership and its apparatuses suddenly lost their decisiveness and realized that they were not in control of the situation...

...The press is virtually out of control, top officials promise legalization of samizdat reviews...

...We should notice, however, that the crisis is pregnant not with dangers alone but also with new opportunities...

...The immediate consequence of this attempt was the alienation of the professional intelligentsia, which concluded that the country's leaders had lost touch with reality and were helplessly drifting toward economic catastrophe...

...In 1956-1957 Hungarian society suffered a total defeat: It was unable to salvage any of its independent organizations formed in October— November and was left without recognized leaders and spokesmen...

...Once economic collapse takes place, it is going to be very difficult to climb out of it...

...A market economy—if it really functions—cannot be automatically safeguarded, among other things, from inflation or unemployment, and it does inevitably intensify social conflicts...

...If in the process we get closer to the solution of a historical dilemma, I would define this as bringing our country closer to the path of European evolution...

...they inertia of the party and state apparatuses...

...Those strata that had ensured the political stability of the regime were overcome by disappointment, frustration, and anger...

...6) Please bear with us—we have accumulated quite a backlog of material, and you may have to wait for a few issues before you see your article in print...

...There are no rules regulating the push them through against the resistance and activity of the emerging organizations...

...The Polish path leads through political organization, and its objective is to limit and control the power of the regime...

...Comprehensive reform programs have to demonstrate that a compromise is possible between the requirements of catching up with the world and the factors that constrain our choices...

...Our bankrupt economy will bear a striking resemblance to market economies: We will have commercial banks, corporations, insurance companies, a stock-and-securities exchange, and private enterprise...

...its authors promise to codify fundamental human rights and democratic processes...

...On the other hand— I consider this the more important factor—the conservatism of those strata that served as pillars of consolidation has become shaken...

...The hardships were distributed in such a way that they visibly aggravated the condition only of those marginal groups unable to express their discontent...

...These rights can be won...

...Therefore, a market economy has to be combined with social protection networks and political structures different from the ones to which we became accustomed...

...5) We're usually quick in giving editorial decisions...

...More precisely, the economy, in spite of the various reform attempts, could not break free of its hierarchical structure because the regime's stability was linked to Soviet-style formulas of existential security and the avoidance of open conflicts...

...Nevertheless, some immediate steps could be taken to ensure that the dialogue not become mere rhetoric that discredits and demoralizes those who enter into it...

...The overwhelming majority of people lived under the illusion of healthy progress even when it was already possible to see that the entire system rested on a minefield...

...Its essence was that the party leadership consciously tried to keep social conflicts at a low level...

...Our political life will be brimming over with corporativism...

...As in 1956 and 1968, the Polish path by definition had to lead to catastrophe, while the evolution of Hungarian civil society moves ahead in an organic way...

...probably won't be able to respect...

...and a mixed, market economy, or to regress Another reason for anxiety is the continuous into economic decay and political Balkanizadeterioration of the economy...

...Let us imagine how this perception will affect the spirit of a society that never had the opportunity to digest fully the ethos of the market, of democracy, and liberalism...

...Check all your figures, dates, names, etc...

...For them only the maintenance of their earlier standard of living became more difficult: They gradually had to become accustomed to accelerating inflation, to the dismantling of state price subsidies, and to working ever harder to sustain their habitual level of consumption...

...It would take us closer to the ideal of citizens' equality...

...The regime had to be able to offer something to the populace...

...We have to try to use this tiny bit of currency debts are the highest in Europe chance, here and now...

...Such a reformer worked in closed committees and his memoranda to the decision makers were "confidential...

...Or take a chance and send us your article...

...the possibility of some real movement within the party appears to be remote as well...

...For the second tion...

...The present crisis in Hungary was preceded by an unusually long period of tranquility...

...The leadership was trying to make it possible for working people to increase their disposable income through extra efforts and to ensure that they could spend it as well...

...There will be no new hopes of strengthening our ties with the Soviet Union and other COMECON countries...

...2) Please don't write to ask whether we're interested in such and such an article—it makes for useless correspondence...

...Rather than present additional reform proposals I want to say something about the political problem of being a reformer...

...These sentiments were still prevalent in the early eighties, although by then the forced slowdown of economic growth was well under way...

...What we have now in Hungary is companies permitting every conceivable form not an ordered transition towards democracy...

...Together with him the whole Old Guard of the party leadership left the political scene...

...Independent trade unions are emerging...

...Consequently, on the surface everything is accomplished...

...in the strengthening of the second economy* (the 1968 reforth gave a strong impetus to this area as well...

...but as a right, it has to belong to every Hungarian citizen, not only to those "dissenters" who are part of the dialogue...

...and along with better economic performance, it would bring about a host of other advantages as well...

...it could keep within acceptable limits inequality of income and wealth...

...There is also a lack of agreement concerning the ordering of priorities...

...Thus, the The alternative Hungary is facing now is to present fertile chaos could end in a catastrophe create a constitutional, multiparty democracy and a political deadlock...

...Finally, there are those oppositional circles, like BeszelO, which want to address the segment of the population that places its hope neither in the reform of the apparatuses nor in the party, but which could serve as a foundation for independent movements and organizations...

...A new constitution is being written...

...THE EDITORS SPRING • 1989 • 241...

...this may mean an economic catastrophe whichUnable to resist, the Communist party seems to would, in its turn, virtually exclude any chance be also unable to yield at the right moment...

...The expiration of the consolidation era was first evidenced by the leaders', rather than the populace's, conduct...

...The apparatuses' resistance to reform has probably weakened, but it has not turned to active reformism...

...its representatives would like to see the democratic renewal of the party at the center of reform and address primarily those Communists who could be mobilized for this cause...

...But on the whole it gave rise to an unprecedented organic evolution especially in three areas: in the development of the consumer market the 1968 reforms played a decisive role (although they left the labor and capital markets unaffected, they did liberate the consumergoods market to a large extent...

...He listened to every opinion, he did everything that could have been done in the given situation...

...The welfare problems of well-integrated strata have to be managed primarily through various market, insurance, and other arrangements, while state redistribution methods should be 238 • DISSENT retained for the poor and the unemployed...

...Look at our last few issues to see if your idea fits in...

...It is more difficult to define this category through a list...

...the entire society would gain something that would probably enable it to organize itself into political forces...

...We have to consider a variety of givens: traditions (aversion to certain liberal values), economic conditions (the state sector's domination cannot be eliminated overnight), geopolitical factors (the post-Yalta status quo cannot be transformed at one stroke...

...At the beginning— in 1965-1968 but even in the first half of the eighties — "reformer" meant a specialist who was included in the official decisionmaking process...

...In such a situation those in power can hope to strengthen their position only if they can claim at least that they entered into a dialogue with the dissenters...

...As for myself, I think that the primary task of comprehensive reform programs is to point out that an alternative model—for which it is worthwhile to accept inevitable sacrifices— is possible...

...And please remember that we can't return articles unless they're accompanied by a stamped, self-addressed envelope...

...240 • DISSENT I would not ask anybody to turn his back on dialogue...

...The state, however, also expanded the sphere of additional work and income opportunities: Centrally positioned strata received a chance to start private enterprises and to take part in the new, profitable form of overtime within the state sector, the so-called "economic workshop...

...Economies of predominantly hierarchical mechanisms, however, are capable of producing an acceptable rate of growth only as long as they have at their disposal an unlimited supply of very cheap resources...

...national unity," which was expressed in a twist of the biblical phrase, "He who is not against us is with us...

...It is possible that the surprising intellectual unity of the reformers is partially a consequence of this paradox: If the various programs were to be promoted by actual political forces—especially heterogeneous forces—the differences among these programs would in all likelihood become greater...

...Only some latent malaise started to spread as years went by, the slump did not let up, and the promised upswing failed to materialize...

...The stability of the consolidation era forestalled fundamental changes...

...It is the end result of the practice that kept Hungarian society in a state of tranquility...

...And we may entertain only a very cautious hope that the massive social discontent will move from grumbling into collective action...

...Political stability could be preserved only as long as the GNP's growth was fast enough simultaneously to finance the insatiable capital-investment needs of industry, the prestige-expenditures of the apparatuses, the subsidies of consumer prices, the full employment of the population (which was engaged in nonproductive work), and the continuous increase of income for those groups capable of expressing their discontent...

...And those prestigious independent intellectuals, who had earlier played such an important role in shaping public opinion favorable to the political leadership, were not at hand either...

...The only thing we will not have will be a functioning market...

...This growing indebtedness made it possible to preserve political stability for another decade without giving up the course of consolidation...

...Thus, even before the worst consequences of the economic crisis have become full-blown, we are in the very midst of a political crisis...

...In 1985 the party leadership, ignoring the economists' warnings, announced a new program of stimulating the economy: It promised more capital investment to industry and growing real wages to employees...

...Evaluating Reform Proposals Does it make any sense at all to ponder reforms in the face of such prospects...

...it is the child of the breakdown easier to introduce reforms on paper than to of authority...

...I believe it to be a well-founded assumption that this grumbling and anger is of a moral nature and derives from the fact that the state relinquished its obligations as patron in exchange for which its subjects had felt justified in accepting the role of clients...

...there will be independent movements and associations, real parliamentary debates, and probably even parliamentary caucuses...

...In my view these concerns adequately summarize the dominant intentions of the various reform programs...

...There are also differences as to what must be considered untouchable limitations in the short run and which will have an enduring effect...

...Direct mobilization campaigns of the populace were discontinued and people were allowed to use their free time to tend to private life...

...The Hungarian path represents the economic formation of civil society, even though its main track is the expansion of the second economy...

...But since the past—no matter how it was—cannot be revived, it is possible that the pivotal political strata might become receptive to another model of social coexistence...

...The leadership could no longer conceal its confusion from the public...

...At that point they were forced to demand unequivocal, severe sacrifices even from those middle strata, which until then had 236 • DISSENT Hall been more or less spared—although it was not clear whether the collapse of the economy could be avoided even at the cost of such measures...

...There is reason for hope, but also for fear, in reforms has been legislated, including a bill on this situation...

...We should first examine the roots of this exceptional political stability lasting over a quarter of a century...

...And not only because "the low-level disequilibrium trap" has a permanent pull-back effect...

...Indeed, the material conditions of those strata capable of registering their dissatisfaction did not worsen as drastically as their grumbling intensified...

...I would like to call attention to a latent danger of the present, prepolitical situation...

...We should remember that no matter what the cause of the present economic crisis, its symptoms are manifested by monetary dependence on Western creditors...

...This included guarantees of existential security: Full employment, stable prices, pensions with enduring purchasing power, prime consumer necessities cheaper than their costs, free education and health care, and rents and utilities affordable to everyone...

...But is this not a sign that much more is at stake than the correlation of prices and wages...

...it would provide individuals and minorities with greater autonomy and legal protection vis-a-vis the state...

...We cannot choose there does not seem to be any effective policy another terrain, more favorable to the realiza at hand to curb it...

...Foreign trade statistics provided crystal clear evidence that Hungary, along with the entire COMECON, was slipping from the middle rung of the world economy to the level of the Third World's stagnating regions...

...In my opinion, the most important thing is to insist that the dialogue receive publicity...

...Since within the constraints of our situation the resolution of the country's crisis is conceivable only in the form of compromise, I believe that everyone should be happy to see that the reform camp is differentiated, with the exception of those who hope for a catastrophe (not that I know anyone who does...

...an astonishing increase in the traffic of smuggled goods, a currency black market with astronomical exchange rates, prosperity for the privileged few and destitution for the underprivileged many...

...We need free access to the media as a right and not as a one-time privilege...

...The leadership's resistance to reform ideas did decrease in the eighties...

...Although still largely enclosed within the white-collar community, the movement of self-organization clearly overstepped the confines of the intelligentsia...

...4) Notes and footnotes should also be typed double-spaced, on a separate sheet...

...The leadership did not respond to this challenge with a fundamental transformation of the economy (at precisely this time it turned against even the fragmentary reform of 1968...

...When both labor and raw materials become scarce and expensive, such economies start to stagnate...

...they do not lend themselves to prophesy anyway...

...SPRING • 1989 • 235 sions (e.g., the gradual expansion of travel opportunities), which brought tangible improvement to the people's life without any substantial cost to the regime...

...it would be able to deal with the problem of unemployment...

...In short, the West may come to look like what the United States means to the masses of less fortunate Latin American countries...

...thus, it is not surprising that the population— remembering the defeat of 1956—did not want to risk these achievements in exchange for political struggles of uncertain outcome...

...First, it must be made clear that the type of economic system—a regulated, mixed-market economy—that may arrest the process by which the country is sliding to the level of the Third World's stagnating regions, cannot be reconciled with the sociopolitical guarantees of the consolidation era...

...It was a long process of learning and accommodation, with ups and downs and blunders...

...The first was "the fundamental achievements of socialism...

...It is, of course, another question altogether what would be the place of the various reformers within the political spectrum of a pluralist democracy (BeszelO would be somewhat left of center...

...In the political sphere institutions are needed such as can regulate and resolve conflicts: trade unions, a functioning parliament, legally defined freedom of the press, and effectively safeguarded civil rights...

...Nevertheless, we have to notice that the political forces of reform are not yet on the scene...

...All this was accompanied by a series of piecemeal conces * The informal, semilegal economy, largely tolerated but not institutionally recognized...

...of private and mixed property, even joint ventures with an overwhelming share of The constitution-making process notwithstandforeign capital, the nongovernmental sector ing, the incipient pluralism is not born out of a remains a negligible quantity...

...The end of stability opens the way for change...

...Their fall opened a new phase in the disintegration of the party-state...

...instead, it chose the fatal policy of postponement...

...On the one hand, the leadership and its apparatuses have never been so indecisive as to which elements of the regime are to be treated as untouchable and permanent and which can be open to transformation...

...We need the right to public statement of collective views, which, along with the right to expression, also includes the right to assembly and association...

...we are able to manage our affairs better, and our leaders are competent in running the country as well...

...The leadership does not have a reform wing (at best it has a few individual reform politicians...

...3) Type your ms double-spaced, with wide margins...

...Nowadays official orators frequently complain that the populace is more dissatisfied than is justified by the actual worsening of its condition...

...But right now I do not want to meditate about the modes of possible differentiation...

...In its indecision it sooner or later tries to put to work almost any available idea, but without a coordinated, comprehensive reform strategy...

...SPRING • 1989 • 239 This differentiation is a positive one and may be the harbinger of a pluralistic political process involving separate forces...

...Beszelb, on whose editorial board the author serves, is a journal associated with the Democratic Opposition...

...it would widen the spectrum of available life alternatives...

...The only thing we will not have will be functioning political pluralism...

...I think that what the consolidation era yielded can be summarized in two slogans...

...Solid existential security, gradual improvement of living conditions, and steady economic growth did indeed represent real achievements...

...This potential danger began to be a real menace for Hungary in the early seventies when the mobilization of rural labor reserves became virtually exhausted, and the heretofore ever expanding rate of Soviet raw material and energy deliveries slowed down...

...Since the acceleration of the crisis, a third form of reformism has been taking shape...

...The task is not to outline the future for the world...

...The other slogan was "socialist This article was written in December 1987 in response to a questionnaire sent out to twenty-six intellectuals by Szcizadveg, a Budapest student review...

...When five years later those in power embarked upon the path of gradual consolidation they did so not under societal pressure, but rather for the sake of convenience...

...There is definitely no cause for excessive optimism...

...they're the author's responsibility...

...But public opinion may easily lose its trust in the other direction as well...

...it is to prevent the fatal deterioration of our country...

...This transforms the state economy as well, yet does so without political conflicts, virtually unnoticeably...

...Its delayed consequences came into view at the end of 1986 when it became obvious even to the leadership that the attempt to accelerate growth had failed and had led to such imbalances in the economy as to demand immediate intervention...

...It took advantage of abundant Western credit offers and financed an unchanged rate of growth with loans...

...The institutions and cultural examples to be emulated are well-known, as are their advantages and disadvantages...

...It is the very model of the state's and its subjects' coexistence that has now been put into question...

...Around the mid-eighties a radical group seceded from the official reformers and wanted to address not only the leadership but the population at large...

...But it is equally important that these positions do gravitate toward each other with regard to the fundamental issues...

...This initial trauma in itself, however, cannot serve as an explanation for the whole story...

...in reality, no substantial change takes place...

...The arbitrary administrative control of the press, of assembly, and of association is under increasing pressure...

...It apparently cannot count on the public support of prominent intellectuals...

...What the people lost was not a few banknotes but a way of life made possible by the existential conditions expressed in the slogans, "the fundamental achievements of socialism" and "socialist national unity...

...In reality, every reformer for the most part addresses the same intellectual audience, which lacks organization as well, but at least is engaged in an intense debate about the alternatives facing the country...

...It is certain that in the general disappointment and anger there is a lot of retrospective passion, a desire to restore the merry old times of consolidation...

...But at the same time this step led to the country's having to face not only economic stagnation but also a sudden decline, the collapse of the consumer market, grave shortages, and galloping inflation...

...No dot matrix submissions, please...

...The policy of consolidation did not supplant overnight the policy of restoration of the regime...

...I consider it noteworthy that even explicitly Communist reformers—the most significant is Mihaly Bihari, the author of Reform and Democracy— focus their attention on the compromise between political pluralization and initial limitations...

...The budget deficit is at the tion of the values of liberty, equality and threshold of the intolerable, per capita hard fraternity...

...for a social contract regulating the necessary This logic may push it into concessions it transition process...