The Jackson Campaign

...As pollster Patrick Caddell has observed, this basic change in Jackson's national political persona—from black activist to national leader—has caught the cautious establishmentarian Democratic leaders by surprise...

...Assuming Dukakis will choose a white southerner as a running mate, Jackson can clearly parlay his delegate-count influence into a weighty factor in Dukakis's vice-presidential choice...

...and second, there's the fact that he has competed with a liberal Democrat, Michael Dukakis...

...CBS/New York Times polling data in the New York primary found the biggest voter bloc, white Catholics (26 percent of the vote), giving only 13 percent to Jackson and 70 percent to Dukakis...

...And these aides are backed by liberal-to-progressive expert advisers attached to progressive research institutions like the Urban Institute and the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington...

...While chiding Jackson, the Wall Street Journal observes that "the substance of Mr...

...The Irish did so first by the 1920s, though not consolidating their paritystatus until the 1950s, as reflected in John F. Kennedy's presidential nomination in 1960...

...Jackson claimed a strong second to front-runner Michael Dukakis at the time of the Pennsylvania primary on April 26...

...It is particularly important for both Jackson and the Democratic party that in his 1988 campaign the black vote for Jackson has increased in most states— especially southern and big industrial states—by ten to fifteen points, from 80 percent plus in 1984 to 90 percent plus in 1988...

...Time, May 2, 1988...

...Jackson's clout will also shape the Dukakis SUMMER • 1988 • 261 platform, as well as the composition of Dukakis's campaign inasmuch as a black presence will be apparent among Dukakis's key advisers...

...2) the 1984 campaign's cultivation of black voters' awareness as a response to the Reaganite Republican indifference to and sometimes contempt for blacks' political concerns...

...As far as Jackson himself is concerned, there is indeed solid evidence of his earnestness...

...and by white voters, 52 percent say yes, 29 percent no...

...and (4) Jackson's skillful cultivation in the 1988 campaign of a solid liberal political message that is fundamentally cross-racial in its appeal...

...First they must recognize that his rise is no fluke...

...and in Connecticut $19,000 or less white households made up 16 percent of Jackson's white votes, and $40,000 or more white households made up 46% of Jackson's white votes...

...If these patterns hold up, Jackson's task is clearly cut out for him...

...With regard to Jackson as the initial agent of a leftward-liberalizing of the Democrats, the primary results indicate there are on average 20 percent of white voters outside the South who accept Jackson's role in the Democratic party...

...Finally, if we assume enough disenchantment with Reaganism among Democratic voters who defected to Republicans in the 1980s, then the guarantee of a Dukakis victory lies in a heavy black vote for the Democratic ticket...

...While in absolute terms his white-voter appeal remains wanting, in relative terms Jackson's white-voter appeal in 1988 has turned the corner, as it were...

...Thus after gaining below 10 percent of white votes in industrial states in 1984, Jackson's 1988 whitevoter support fundamentally reverses the 1984 situation...

...So, if the New York primary results are typical, then white-ethnic voters—who are crucial in big industrial states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New York, etc.—are clearly not yet ready for a Jackson-led liberal restoration...

...And Andrew Kopkind, writing in The Nation (April 2, 1988), observed approvingly that Jackson is "running that unspeakable anomaly, that horror of all horrors, a 'class campaign.' " Jackson's progressive message has clearly moved the Democratic candidates' ideological fulcrum to left of the establishment's conservative or quasiReaganite center...

...First, there's the fact that Jackson is black...

...Although some polling data on the New York primary revealed signs of a potential black revolt against the Democratic nominee—owing mainly to the vicious assault on Jackson by Mayor Ed Koch— national survey data indicate a basic maturity in blacks' perception of Jackson's intraparty status...

...In return, Jackson will owe Dukakis and the Democrats a major quid pro quo—namely, to induce and help mobilize a major black voter registration and election turnout...

...As the Wall Street Journal remarked (April 1, 1988), "In their presidential wilderness years . . . [the establishment] Democrats have been debating how to adapt their message to Ronald Reagan's success...

...For example, Jackson mustered 25 percent of white votes in the Michigan caucuses, 20 percent of the white vote in Connecticut, 23 percent in Wisconsin, 15 percent in New York, and 13 percent in Pennsylvania...

...Jackson not merely 'the most liberal' Democrat but an authentically radical voice...

...A national poll on April 20-21 by Time found 50 percent of voters for Dukakis, 39 percent for Bush, with a Dukakis-Jackson ticket defeating Bush 47 percent to 42 percent...

...The central problem confronting the new Jacksonled liberal restoration is the problematic evidence of the restoration's staying power...

...Exacting a firm promise for, say, two black cabinet or subcabinet posts, and for posts other than blackrelated ones like HUD, can also be expected...

...When asked by Gallup/Newsweek how they will vote in November if Jackson is not Dukakis's running-mate, 72 percent of black voters say Democratic, 5 percent Republican, and 13 percent won't vote...

...Jackson's message . . . might best be described as the politics of socialist joy...

...This stability in Jackson's appeal to black voters enables him to devote some two-thirds of his time and resources in 1988 to forging a successful appeal to white voters...

...On the other hand, within the South there are only around 8 percent of white voters favorable to Jackson—e.g., 6 percent in the Super Tuesday vote in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia, and 7 percent in Florida, North Carolina, and Kentucky—with almost double this in Virginia and Texas (14 percent...

...And deal with Jackson they have...

...and the conditions for electoral disarray in the Democratic party are fulfilled...

...A parity-status with regard to a political party is the opposite of a client-status...

...These developments have given the Jackson 1988 campaign the character of a major political transformation...

...Add to this the intraparty stress stemming from bids by still other interests for parity-status (feminists, gay liberationists, environmentalists, etc...

...The Time poll found support also for Dukakis's liberalism, at least insofar as he was favored over Bush in addressing issues like drugs (45 percent Dukakis, 30 percent Bush), homelessness (57 percent, 21 percent), federal deficit (41 percent, 32 percent...

...Some pundits have intimated that unless Jackson, with his strong delegate count, is shown major respect by Dukakis and the Democratic chiefs, sizable sectors of black voters will be grievously offended, feeling racism still at work as usual, and sit out the November elections...

...What is particularly significant about Jackson's doubling and even tripling his white votes in 1988 is that these votes have kept him keenly competitive in the delegate count...

...However, white Protestants (fourth largest bloc at 12 percent) were 25 percent Jackson and 57 percent Dukakis...

...Then came Jackson's surprising Michigan victory in late March (gaining 25 percent of the white votes), an event that sparked National Democratic Committee head Paul Kirk, hitherto cool and nearly disrespectful to Jackson, to gather party patron saints like Clark Clifford for a Democratic–top brass breakfast for Jackson...

...Both voting and polling data suggest that white voters are of several minds on these choices...

...Only Hispanic voters among nonblack voting blocs appear free of contemporary America's neoracist demeanor when it comes to voting for black candidates...

...But this neoracist aspect of the minuscule Jewish vote for Jackson in New York is complicated by Jackson's "Hymietown" remark in 1984 and his past ties with the anti-Semitic Louis Farrakhan...

...Jackson as a serious candidate," says Caddell...

...New York Times, March 30, 1988...

...Below several editors express their individual opinions...

...And Dukakis was not seen as deficient in handling such hardnosed matters as the economy, for he just edges out Bush on this (43 percent, 42 percent...

...Key elements in this Jacksonled liberal restoration were (1) the expansion of black voters through Jackson's 1984 campaign...

...This is due largely to that prominent malady of the white-American mind—racism, or rather the contemporary variant I call neoracism, which rejects lynchings and institutionalized segregation but isn't ready for a black mayor of Chicago and New York or a black president or vice-president...

...And the second biggest voter bloc, Jewish voters (25 percent of the vote), favored Jackson even less than white Catholics—merely 7 percent for Jackson and 77 percent Dukakis...

...The delegatetally at that date was 1,097 Dukakis, 838 Jackson (2,082 needed to nominate)—with Al Gore having dropped out of the campaign the week before, following his weak third-place loss in New York...

...Thus the aura of the Michigan victory legitimates Jackson among the Democratic establishment, and Jackson's Michigan votes find him by early April claiming overall 27 percent of the Democratic primary vote and 25 percent of the delegates...

...The first nudge of the Democratic party establishment toward Jackson came from the pre-Michigan primary SUMMER • 1988 • 259 CBS/New York Times poll that showed Jackson's favorable rating among Democrats reaching an all-time high of 44 percent and his unfavorable rating falling to an all-time low of 29 percent...

...Clearly, Jackson's 1988 vote and delegate tally will dwarf the 1984 performance...

...Jackson has positioned himself in a strong second place behind Dukakis—whose campaign resources dwarf Jackson's five to one—not by deferring to the Democratic establishment's timidity on major social issues in American life (e.g., homelessness, black unemployment, black and white poverty, environmental problems, farm crisis, reindustrialization problems, trade issues, etc...

...Parity-status is what white ethnic groups carved out for themselves within the Democratic party in an earlier period...

...Thus acquiring parity-status in the Democratic party for Italians, Jews, and Poles overlaps the period in which blacks enter the rocky climb to intraparty equality...

...It entails the coalescence of relatively sovereign groups or interests...

...In class terms, middleand upper-income whites were stronger for Jackson in states like Pennsylvania—e.g., voters with incomes of $19,000 or less gave Jackson 13 percent of votes, while voters with incomes $50,000 or more gave Jackson 16 percent...

...It is a voice more typical of the British Labor Party than of American politics...

...Even many Jewish voters share this neoracist demeanor—note, for instance, the small Jewish vote for capable black mayoral candidates like Chicago's Harold Washington and Philadelphia's Wilson Goode, who ran against a race-baiting white politician, Frank Rizzo...

...First, white voters among the Democrats have been effectively challenged by a black presidential candidate—Jesse Jackson—to seriously entertain the idea of him as a national leader, whether he wins or loses the nomination quest...

...But, alas, there are not a whole lot of votes among political aides and policy analysts...

...Liberal and progressive observers share the Wall Street Journal's characterization of Jackson's message...

...In the context of national politics, the Jackson campaigns in 1984 and especially in 1988 must be seen as crucial stages in a protracted liberalDemocratic restoration...

...If this is realized, there will be a Dukakis victory in November and a solid framework for reinforcing blacks' parity-status in the Democratic party alongside the parity-status of White ethnic groups...

...Italians, Jews, and Polish-Americans—and smaller groups like Greeks and Armenians—didn't achieve paritystatus in the Democratic party until the 1950s-1970s era...

...3) the special role of black votes in restoring a Democratic majority in the Senate in the 1986 congressional elections (e.g., with whites split between Democrats and Republicans, black votes ranging from 82 percent Democratic in Georgia to 88 percent in North Carolina and Alabama enabled victory for Senators Fowler, Sanford, and Shelby...

...Thus a black mayor has governed for four terms in Los Angeles, where Hispanics are the largest voting bloc, and in the New York 1988 primary Jackson won the Hispanic vote nearly two to one over Dukakis-61 percent to 38 percent...

...Thus when asked in a recent Time poll, "Has Jesse Jackson been treated fairly by" Democratic party leaders, 50 percent of black voters say yes, 29 percent say no...

...This intersection of the paths of blacks and white ethnics to intraparty equality has been extremely stressful for the Democratic party, frequently smashing the norms of political decorum between white and black Democrats...

...They must deal with the emergence of Mr...

...For example, writing in the New Republic (March 8, 1988) Barbara Ehrenreich, co-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America, praises Jackson for adding "a little class warfare" to the Democratic primary campaign...

...These conditions have reigned, more or less, from the early 1970s through the 1980s, contributing to but in no way the sole cause of the right-wing Republican ascendancy under Reagan...

...There are two aspects to the issue of the willingness of white voters to back a liberal 260 • DISSENT Democratic party...

...Just look at his key aides, all well-tested progressives like Ann Lewis, Gerald Austin, and Mark Steitz...

...by the Dukakis campaign, 55 percent say yes, 25 percent no...

...His economic and defense programs, in particular, make Mr...

...he most important impact of Jesse Jackson's campaign has been his ability to fashion for black Americans a parity-status within the Democratic party...

...This is especially true of Dukakis, whose message to voters in the 1988 primary has unmistakable Jacksonesque overtones...

...But in ending his campaign Gore holds on to his delegates until the convention, thereby clearly deferring to Jackson's new political clout as a national Democratic figure...

...This clout Jackson owes essentially to his skillful cross-racial political appeal to white voters...

...Jackson, to his credit, has spurned this surrender to Reaganism...

...This compares most favorably to Jackson's 1984 primary total performance, when he gained only 19 percent of the total primary vote and just 10 percent of Democratic delegates...