COMMENTS: Storm Warnings for Mitterrand
Coser, Lewis
France's Socialist government is in deep trouble. There has been no real amelioration of economic conditions during the current year; in fact, things seem to have deteriorated further. The rate...
...This issue now has moved to the forefront of political debates...
...If not, what would he do...
...Local elections since the Mitterrand regime came to power all indicate losses by the left and significant gains by the right...
...After the left-wing, class-struggle, protectionist wing of the Socialist party lost its governmental influence early last year, when its leader Jean-Pierre Chevènement was ousted as minister for industrial development and research, the government embarked on a course of lean policies that is likely to last several years...
...0 28...
...The government justifies these austerity measures as necessary not only to overcome the present crisis but also to make France more competitive in the world market...
...The budget for 1984 spells out a dismal message for French taxpayers...
...He could, of course, dissolve the Assembly and call for new elections, but it is not likely that an Assembly elected so shortly after the previous one would give different results...
...Not only the economy but also the state of public opinion has become worrisome for the government...
...On the other hand, there is the possibility of compromise, and many political experts have been urging that this is the only course that might avoid a mutually destructive bout between the right and the left...
...27 The left still has the lead among workers, among salaried employees, and in middle management...
...The mean number of months during which a person is unemployed in France is around 13, higher than almost anywhere in Europe...
...In practice, the government has all too often consented to backing losers in such industries as steel, because to do otherwise might incur the wrath of workers who would be laid off...
...This in fact has been the case under de Gaulle, Pompidou, and Giscard, and is so at present...
...Certain members of the right leadership have said that they would accept "cohabitation" of a left president and a right parliament and prime minister...
...THE GOVERNMENT AND THE PARLIAMENT have now gone through about half of their five-year term...
...It has still further increased its outlays for research, education, and modernization...
...In 1981 the combined losses of the newly nationalized industries amounted to around $900 million...
...Many of the nationalized industrial concerns have been accumulating huge new debts...
...But what would happen if the right won a parliamentary majority in 1986 while Mitterrand would continue as president for an additional two years...
...The Gaullist constitution, which is now 25 years old, was built on the assumption that the political orientation of the president, the prime minister and his cabinet, and the National Assembly would be the same...
...Such outlays will not pay off in the immediate future...
...There is austerity in Socialist Spain and Portugal, in middleof-the-road Belgium and the Netherlands, in conservative England and Germany...
...Others, however, have said that an impasse could only be avoided through the resignation of the president and new elections, which would again lead to a political balance between the presidency and the Assembly...
...Be that as it may, the issue of the outcome of the 1986 elections is likely to dominate political discussions in the next two years...
...The rate of inflation will come to roughly 9 percent this year (as against a German rate of only 3 percent and a significant lowering of the British rate...
...What is more, the budget is built on the hypothesis that the average wage increase in the coming year will only be 4.9 percent, while it was 9.6 percent last year and about 15 percent in both 1980 and 1981...
...French politics will be stormy in the years to come...
...The government has now embarked on a strict austerity program...
...The unemployment rate is about 8 percent and seems to be increasing...
...the various austerity measures at best will mean no improvement in living standards, and at worst a decided deterioration...
...This seems to indicate that 1986 might become a difficult year in French politics...
...huge debts have been accumulating...
...While older persons have swung to the right, the majority of the people under 34 years of age are still faithful to the left...
...Political tensions have increased perceptibly in the last months...
...Despite such losses, the government has continued to channel new funds into the nationalized sector...
...This poll and several others show that the left would be far outdistanced by the right among such categories of voters as farmers, small businessmen, and handicraft workers, and in the upper-management and liberal professions...
...The government hopes that the inflation rate next year will be only 5 percent so that wage earners will not suffer real losses...
...Even the working class, which will not pay much higher taxes, will have to contribute through a 1 percent increase in old-age contributions...
...but it seems more realistic to predict a considerably higher inflation rate and hence real losses in purchasing power among wage earners as well as salaried employees...
...This surely is a major issue: a parliament of the right might well decide to denationalize industries that have been nationalized in the previous period...
...Mitterrand and the Socialists so far have made no official statements on the matter...
...Elections for the presidency, however, will only come two years later...
...There will be new parliamentary elections in 1986...
...Would Mitterrand be expected to acquiesce and hence undo some of his cherished reforms...
...The stage might then be set for a stalemate with much of government business paralyzed if the president refuses to endorse measures taken by Assembly and prime minister, or vice versa...
...There will be surcharges on the income tax, and not only forced loans as in the last budget, which will hit the upper strata but also the middle classes, the salaried employees, and lower management...
...Last year these losses rose to $1.4 billion, and they are expected to be still higher this year...
...Austerity is the order of the day almost everywhere in Europe, no matter what the politics of the government in power...
...I, for one, surely hope so but am by no means convinced that this will be the case...
...A poll organized by the leftwing Nouvel Observateur last June showed that 54 percent of the voters would now opt for the right— which would give the right a solid majority in parliament...
...All in all, however, opinion polls and local elections spell out a frightening message for the government and its Socialist supporters...
...Officially it has asserted that it is mainly concerned with modernizing and rationalizing industries, such as electronics, which can compete in international markets...
...In the meantime, France's economic position in the world market and hence the position of the franc have not improved...
...The deplorable economic situation has led to a polarization of the electorate, the right has become much more confident, and the left so far seems to bank mainly on an economic upswing, allowing a relaxation of austerity in the year before the elections...
...In other words, the complicated constitutional checks and balances among the president, the Assembly, the prime minister and cabinet were never really tested...
Vol. 31 • January 1984 • No. 1
