A BATTLE OF INTERPRETATION: THE LAST CAMPAIGN IN THE ISRAELI ELECTIONS

...Many people who felt strongly about the corruption unveiled in the ruling Labor regime were not satisfied merely to register a protest vote for the DMC—which they suspected would in any case join a coalition headed by the Labor Alignment...

...The Agudat Israel, however in extremist Jerusalem Orthodox religious party, has a foreign-policy stand that is unclear though it tends to favor territorial concessions on all fronts in order to avoid bloodshed...

...But it is precisely these segments of society that have significantly shifted their support from the Labor Alignment to the Likud...

...It is also possible that many voters did not believe that the Likud would have sufficient power to form a new coalition...

...White-collar workers, the middle-class, and dissatisfied elements in the kibbutzim and moshavim (separate, cooperative farms) supported the DMC...

...Labor indeed had been consistently in power for the past 40 years, starting even before the creation of the state...

...To most outsiders, the primary significance of the election is that for the first time in Israeli history a party believing in "the integrity of the Land of Israel" (meaning, in practice, trying to keep the West Bank and the Gaza Strip) has taken power Its platform opposes any settlement with the Palestinians, or even the Jordanians, that would provide for the return of these occupied areas...

...The grave suspicion felt by every Israeli concerning the Arabs' true intentions had to be detrimental to such a "pure" party, especially when it is clear to everyone that the chances for peace do not depend on the attitude of one side alone...

...Its coalition partner, the Mafdal, with a similar stand on foreign policy, increased its seats from 10 to 12...

...Such leaders as Levi Eshkol and Golda Meir, who were accepted by the various factions within the party, have either passed away or retired, thereby weakening the party's ability to fight against the right...

...To this can be added the erosion that occurred during the 40 years of the party's rule both in the government and the Histadrut, leaving the impression that there is no longer any article of faith within the party that is strong enough to unite its members above and beyond the interests of power struggle...

...But in the 1977 election, at the insistence of Mapam, a left-wing party that is part of the Labor Alignment, territorial concessions regarding all three fronts were specifically mentioned in the Alignment platform...

...Those analysts who maintain that the Likud victory doesn't necessarily mean that the majority of the Israeli electorate rallied around the maximilist position favoring the retention of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) offer another argument: In the 1973 elections the Labor Alignment was deliberately vague on this issue...

...These observers see the major question as whether it is now possible to continue negotiations between Israel and the Arabs on the basis of the platform of the Likud, the largest political grouping in the Begin coalition (with 43 seats in the Knesset, Israel's parliament) and its major partner, the Mafdal (the National Religious Party, with 12 seats...

...The complexity of this view will explain both Sheli's success among the educated youth and the intelligentsia, and its resounding failure among all other elements of society...

...Sheli, obviously, did not succeed in attracting and explaining its position to large segments of the population...

...This is especially true if we remember that the Labor Alignment received half a million votes in the Histadrut, or 50,000 more than in the Knesset elections...

...A similar clause can also be found in the platform of the newly formed, moderate Democratic Movement for Change (DMC) that is headed by Professor Yigael Yadin...

...It became increasingly clear that its obligations to various pressure groups prevented the development of any substantial social and economic policy or the promotion of young and new figures within the party—all of which led to insensitivity toward the will of the public...

...Naturally, it is also necessary to prove that Israel would not be exposing itself to mortal danger by adopting such a plan...

...Its platform spoke generally about territorial concessions as part of an overall peace settlement without specifically saying which territories might be yielded...

...II ELECTIONS in a representative democracy, in which each party has more than one position on a crucial issue, always leave room for varied interpretations...

...Translated by YISHAI TOBIN...

...Others may have consoled themselves with the depressing (or cynical) thought that, in reality, the United States, and not Israel, determines the relations among the countries of the Middle East...

...For them the Likud means a closed and suspicious society, cultivating the tribalistic sources of its solidarity, not believing in a normalization of its relations with its neighbors, living by the sword and by its real or imagined superiority in a hostile environment, while awaiting a miracle...

...They hoped that their reluctant vote would prevent the Likud from becoming the major political force in Israel...

...The left has tried to overcome these obstacles by emphasizing the added values of a radical peace proposal, such as the obvious moral and political advantages for Israel if the Arabs refused to accept such a plan...

...THE OUTCOME of the Knesset election is depressing, at least for those who believe that a flexible Israeli policy with regard to territorial concessions is needed both educationally (by stressing humanistic as opposed to tribalistic aspects of Zionism) and politically (by bringing peace closer or at least by making war a more remote possibility...

...Indeed, it is not easy to determine from the election results alone the will of the majority of the electorate...

...Sheli's strongest claim is that—although with a radical Israeli peace initiative there still is _a possibility of renewed warfare— without such initiative another Middle Eastern war would be inevitable...

...The struggle between these diverse positions and interpretations is very often the last battle in an election campaign...

...A conspicuous failure on the part of the Likud, such as an open confrontation with the United States or rampant unemployment, would be necessary to bring that about, since rightist ideology per se does not seem to trouble many Israelis...

...Middle-oftheroad people, such as Dayan, led the party to compromises, and demeaned it by threats that gradually helped to erase any clear-cut ideological differences between the right and the center and left...

...And if a strain in American-Israeli relations should bring about a split in the Likud, its more moderate factions might well wish to join forces with the DMC...

...Some outside observers fear that the intransigeant position of the Begin government will bring about renewed warfare and/or an imposed settlement in the Middle East...

...They see the election results as mainly a protest against the corruption discovered in the previous Labor government...

...By lack of ideological balance we mean that there was a strong and clear-cut representation of the center and the right—but no strong or influential left...

...the Labor Alignment went down from 51 mandates to 32, and its affiliated Arab party received only one of its former three seats...

...The picture is not radically changed by the fact that the Labor Alignment received an absolute majority of about 56 percent in the elections of the Histadrut (the General Federation of Labor) while the Likud increased its power by merely 4 percent, giving it 27 percent of the electorate...

...This vagueness was partly the result of pressure from Moshe Dayan and his group, who wanted to leave open the possibility or implication that territorial concessions would be made only on the Golan Heights and in the Sinai...

...If we also remember that many of those who voted for the Labor Alignment are not members of the Histadrut, we may assume that approximately 100,000 voters changed their minds in the month that passed between the Knesset elections and the Histadrut elections...

...This hope was in vain...

...Polls equating the strength of the Likud and the Labor Alignment that were published right before the election also served to convince many potentially leftist voters to cast their ballots for the Labor Alignment...

...Indeed, in the recent election, we have witnessed a 6-to-10 percent decrease in the support of both the center and the left—and this was part of the general protest that caused the Labor Alignment to lose approximately 33 percent of its earlier vote...

...Yet, it cannot be denied that there was a significant shift from the dovish or "semidovish" camp to that of the hawks...

...Agudat Israel, with 4 seats...

...These correlations may only be confined to specific elements in society—blue-collar workers, the youth, residents of development towns, and the Oriental communities...

...Some entertain the hope that negative factors in the Likud government will alone enable the Labor party to regain power and that an extended and painful rehabilitation period will not be necessary...

...Only time will tell to what extent Israeli society will recover from the negative and depressing spirit that emerges out of this new government...

...the Shlomit, with 2 seats...

...Now, the major question remains whether these implications were clear to the approximately 100,000 voters who switched from one camp to the other in this election...

...Various new political constellations are possible, and thus there is no guarantee that a failure on Begin's part will necessarily put Labor back in power...

...The conquests of '67 have reopened traditional controversies regarding the aims of Zionism...

...These facts do not necessarily diminish the achievements of the Labor Alignment in the Histadrut elections...

...But more time will be needed before a "back to the Alignment" movement can take place...

...This is based on deep-rooted, structural demographic factors and is a source of concern among many of the "finer elements" in Israeli society...

...The party must now try to renew its contacts with the various segments of society that it has neglected...

...Po'alei (Workers') Agudat Israel, with 1 seat...

...This may be due to the nationalistic indoctrination of the educational system and to the fear of foreign cultures...

...Only a relatively small segment of the population finds the rise of religious coercion disturbing...

...Nor did it prevent the extremist camp from gaining eight new seats—although thousands of middle-class Likud supporters did switch over to the DMC...

...On the other hand, however, everyone is aware of the indispensability of American aid for Israel's survival...

...About half of its support came from students, intellectuals, and second-generation kibbutzniks, the rest from workers and minor officials, and from some elements not strongly rooted in the society...

...Thus, there is nearly an even balance: 801,000 votes went to parties that oppose territorial concessions on all fronts and 803,000 to parties that under certain conditions would favor them...

...Three of these parties support Begin's foreign policy wholeheartedly...

...This interpretation, which refuses to accept the election results as a sign of ideological support for the Likud position, can be disputed by the fact that the DMC (of Yigael Yadin) provided the voters with an opportunity to register a protest vote against the ruling Labor Alignment without having to resort to the Likud...

...It must prove that it can provide an alternative to the policies of the Likud on crucial issues such as peace, social problems, and progress toward economic independence...

...The Likud, led by Menahem Begin, raised its support from 39 to 43 mandates...

...Thus, now in Israel the leaders of the right-wing and religious parties view the election results as a net gain in public support of their religious and ideological positions—while the intellectuals of the Labor Alignment and the left refuse to accept this interpretation...

...The National Labor Federation, however, founded in the 1930s by Zev Jabotinsky (the spiritual mentor of Begin's Herut party, which is the principle faction in the Likud), functions within the Histadruth though standing in opposition to its socialist ideology...

...If the Likud should fall while the Labor Alignment fails to create a new social image, the DMC may yet prove to be the Likud's successor...

...Against this claim, the supporters of the left are forced to concede that the Likud did succeed in convincing the public at least on one major issue: "We [the Likud] are the only force able to replace the present government...

...They wanted to bring about a complete change in government...

...In order to find a common denominator for the conflicting interests among its different factions, the party did its best not "to annoy" anyone, and thus did not "arouse anyone's enthusiasm" either...

...The Histadrut represents approximately 60 percent of those eligible to vote in the Knesset elections...

...It offers a peace policy that is radical and daring—the return of all the territories for real peace, partial or total demilitarization of the territories, the right of the Palestinians to selfdetermination in an independent state or in a confederation with Jordan, with part of Jerusalem possibly serving as its capital...

...In light of the failure of the Zionist left in the elections, there is always the possibility that none of the socialist forces will be able to play a part in the struggle for political and social influence in Israel...

...Israel is currently in the midst of developments that could drastically alter its traditional political system...

...They were certainly not the only Israelis who were disappointed by the election results, but their votes were the clearest reflection of the lack of ideological balance on the Israeli political scene...

...This view was expressed at a symposium sponsored by the Israeli socialist monthly Emda on the theme of the downfall of the Labor party...

...The right has added pseudo-strategic arguments to justify holding on to the territories as part of its ideology of preserving "the integrity of the Land of Israel...

...The results indicate that tens of thousands of Israeli voters see unfortunate connections between government corruption and a moderate foreign policy on the one hand, and integrity and an inflexible foreign policy on the other...

...Together with the DMC, Sheli (a left-wing socialist party led Lova Eliav), Rakah (Israel's Communist party), and the smaller, moderate or semimoderate parties of the center received only 57 as against 62 mandates a few years ago, indicating a significant loss in what had been a clear majority in favor of territorial concessions...

...The Labor party has suffered internal changes that have progressively and increasingly weakened it since the Six Day War...

...Despite the impressive achievements of the DMC (it polled 12.5 percent of the electorate and received 15 seats in the Knesset, though the party is only one year old), it did not manage, together with the Labor Alignment, to keep the same number of seats that the Alignment alone had held in the previous Knesset...

...the workers in the development towns, the youth, and the intelligentsia...

...Thus, people who opposed any territorial concessions in Judea and Samaria would be inclined not to vote for these two parties...

...Besides the Likud, there are four other parties in the coalition of the Begin government...

...Those more familiar with the history of Israel's young democracy know that the results of the election can be interpreted in other and at least as significant ways...

...In the meantime, however, the DMC has created the image of a new and important force that is both centrist and liberal in domestic affairs and in foreign affairs very similar to the Alignment...

...The Last Campaign in the Israeli Election The Israeli election has been interpreted in very different ways by outside observers who know little about our political life and by our own experts who command a first-hand knowledge of Israeli society...

...The parties opposing territorial concessions in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip received collectively 58 mandates (or seats) out of the total of 120 in the Knesset...

...Those elements of the left that were represented in Lova Eliav's party Sheli received only two mandates (or 1.5 percent of the vote...

...They are: Mafdal (the National Religious party), with 12 seats...

...The Mafdal does not participate in Histadruth elections, for there is a separate labor union of religious workers...

...Many Israeli workers are not members of the Histadrut—they belong to other labor federations...

...The victorious parties rush to interpret their victory as an expression of full public support for all of their positions, while the defeated parties look for consolation in other interpretations...

...Nevertheless, these parties, together with other small parties favoring territorial concessions on all fronts, received about the same support as those that support the "Land of Israel" outlook...

...it has put emphasis on the humanistic character of Zionism, stressed the possibility of strengthening the moderates in the divided Arab world, and of improving Israel's image in world opinion...

...This caused many of the radical voters to choose "the lesser of two evils" at the cost of their ideological integrity, in order to prevent what they viewed as "the greater evil...

...And so many important people support the traditional ideology of the Zionist right within the Labor ranks that it became difficult or impossible for the entire party openly to oppose it...

...Demographically, however, the first group is predominant, and since 1958, there has occurred a steady increase in Likud support at the expense of the Labor Alignment...

...For those who believe that domestic Israeli policy was responsible for the change in government, there is an even more negative significance in the election outcome...