Why Bosch Lost the Dominican Election

...Should these men regain their influence it is likely that they will control Balaguer—not at all an independent personality—and their style of rule will be intolerable to many Dominicans...

...of a kind that Bosch could not possibly get...

...If the situation does take a turn for the better, this may be one of the causes...

...Even the unhappy peace a conservative government might impose will be difficult to maintain in the explosive situation likely to develop...

...The same holds for all Latin America: what a disaster it will be if the Mann doctrine of military intervention now becomes the entrenched policy of the State Department in regard to all popular upheavals) Finally, a few words about the Committee for Free Elections in the Dominican Republic...

...One of the gravest dangers to this kind of development is that the United States may feel vindicated in its policy of military intervention...

...The working class and the urban youth were solidly for him...

...The local Boards were made up of representatives of all parties...

...However, I think it reasonable to say that if fraud did occur, it was not during the voting process itself, but later, in the tabulation of the ballots...

...It was only after this effort was begun that the Organization of American States decided to send its own observers for the election...

...The Committee for Free Elections sent more than 70 observers to all provinces during the election period...

...Yet by themselves the votes of rural conservatives were not enough to defeat Bosch in 1962, and could not have been enough this time either...

...Many people, especially American newspapermen, are explaining Bosch's defeat as a result of the kind of campaign he ran...

...Given the enthusiasm of some Bosch supporters and, more importantly, the treacherousness of the Dominican armed forces, such an incident would have been probable had Bosch gone barnstorming in the provinces...

...We were not asked to put representatives on the Electoral Botrds nor, since none of our observers were familiar with the technicalities of the electoral process, would it have been responsible for us to offer such representatives...

...It could easily prove to be a victory for Tom Mann, architect of reactionary U.S...

...observers was only that of helping to create a peaceful and free climate in which the elections could be held, and to see that voters had access to the polls...

...The greatest danger to a stable civilian administration now is likely the return of militarists, symbolized by General Wessin y Wessin, whom the New York Times reports to be on his way back to the island...

...Charges of electoral fraud have been made both by supporters of Bosch and those of Raphael Bonnelly, candidate of the extreme right...

...But, taking into account all that has gone before, this will take a near-miracle to achieve...

...The Committee for Free Elections worked with the Dominican Association for Human Rights, a locally sponsored civil liberties organization whose assistance was of great value...

...According to the announced returns Balaguer received nearly 60 percent of a vote which, when all returns are in, should exceed 1,200,000...

...money found its way into his coffers...

...Under such circumstances, however, the Americans could not be counted on to support Bosch, despite their claims that they would accept any elected government...

...On the contrary, the armed forces might well have provoked the conflict by refusing to accept him...

...Other parties generally painted their initials freehand...

...and that he will tolerate organized political opposition...

...This evidence of heavy spending casts some suspicion on Balaguer's campaign...

...Whether or not this is true, it should be recognized that such a fear would have been entirely justifiable—and not something to be sneered at by American newsmen, many of whom spent their visits to the Dominican Republic cloistered in the Hotel Embajador, a bit of transplanted Miami Beach that snuggles close to an American army camp several miles outside of Santo Domingo...

...Yet, at least up to the point when the ballots were cast, it was obvious that for the most part the elections were free and honest...

...The three major parties in the election welcomed this effort and signed letters of invitation...

...Faced with this alternative, many Dominicans seem to have resigned themselves to Balaguer, whose whole campaign stressed the restoration of civic peace and whose supporters kept hinting that a victory for their man would bring financial help from the U.S...

...Besides, many of their sons are in the armed forces, which gives them both sentimental and economic ties to a group that felt threatened by Bosch...

...In the view of most observers this aspect of the election was free and honest...

...This is widely rumored in Santo Domingo, and calls into question the explana tion that Balaguer won because Dominican citizens have a high regard for his honesty and responsibility in government...

...This is not to say that Bosch would have wildly and quixotically assailed the armed forces...

...In too many cases the OAS observers spent their time in such activities as having cocktails with the provincial governor—as reported to us in San Pedro de Macoris—rather than touring the polling places...

...Perhaps its disastrous affair with Marshall Ky has taught the State Department a lesson about power-hungry militarists—although it has proved remarkably resistant to such lessons...

...The country would then be plunged into a civil war which the army—no doubt unified and well-supplied since the American intervention—would probably win, but which in any case would be immensely destructive...

...The role of the U.S...

...In fact, we were welcomed by all sides, which is a lot more than can be said for the OAS observers...

...But even these do not deny that he was also extravagantly corrupt and despotic, so that it is hard to believe anyone was deeply impressed by the supposed rectitude of Balaguer, one of Trujillo's collaborators...

...the OAS sent about half as many...

...His resources ranged from airplanes for sky-writing to stencils for painting his red rooster emblem on walls and buildings...

...Balaguer's campaign was very wellfinanced...

...Had Norman Thomas not admitted this, he and those associated with him would have been so discredited that they could be of very little help to the Dominican people in what are likely to be the difficult times to come...

...During the turbulent months that Bosch held power following his election in 1962, he showed a good measure of personal courage...

...Not only is it almost surely a victory for Joaquin Balaguer and his right-wing supporters...

...A Commission on Free Elections, including Victor Reuther, Bayard Rustin, Rev...

...On several occasions Norman Thomas was cheered and people left their places in the long voting lines to shake his hand...

...Some Dominicans, however, were not happy that we did not at once de pounce the election returns as fraudulent...

...The defeat of Juan Bosch in last week's election is another of those bitter episodes which seem so constantly fated for the democratic forces of the Dominican Republic...

...As yet, to my knowledge, no evidence that would seriously dispute the victory of Balaguer has appeared...

...It thus seems more likely that he stayed home during this campaign because he wanted to avoid the sort of incident that would give the army a pretext to interfere with the election...

...But in the provinces, which account for nearly SANTO DOMINGO JUNE 6, 1966 80 percent of the country's population, Balaguer beat Bosch two to one...

...Bosch ran well in the cities...

...It is frequently said that he stayed home out of fear of assassination...

...Bosch and his party, the PRD, could then play a vital role as a democratic opposition pressing for reforms and enabling the country, despite Balaguer, to achieve at least some social and economic advances...

...At about this time the campaign atmosphere improved, partially, it seems fair to say, because of the interest of the Committee...

...The Committee for Free Elections in the Dominican Republic, headed by Norman Thomas, sent some seventy observers into all parts of the country during the election period...

...There was another and newer kind of cynicism in the air during the past election which was decisive for Bosch's defeat...

...Although some of these observers, like myself, were pro-Bosch, we were committed to objectivity in our judgment of the voting process...

...for cynicism, for anti-democratic forces of both left and right, for military intervention, and for all the related ills that plague Latin America...

...Many of the observers sent by the Committee for Free Elections were, privately, admirers of Juan Bosch...

...Even if there had been overwhelming evidence of irregularities in the handling of the ballots after they had been cast, this evidence would have been the domain of the Electoral Board and the special committees of the various parties...

...Throughout the campaign he relied on radio speeches and press statements, hardly ever leaving his well-guarded house...

...that he will maintain at least a measure of supremacy by the civilian government over the armed forces (who swarm through the country in quantities that to a visitor are utterly startling...

...Our group was cordially and—especially in troubled Santo Domingo— even enthusiastically received by the Dominican people...

...If a version of a democratic civilian government is maintained and freedom allowed to opposition views, it is fair to ask that Bosch and his followers refrain from revolutionary violence and become a left opposition within a democratic, constitutional context...

...It was an ill-kept secret here that the United States favored Balaguer, and it is by no means impossible that some U.S...

...But revolutions have their cycles, and this one will probably revive...

...Bosch's supporters had, with justification, made most of the complaints...

...The Committee was organized last March when several groups in the Dominican Republic charged that violence and intimidation were preventing a free election campaign...

...Such a development will lead to a massive revival of revolutionary fervor in the country, whether of a Constitutionalist or Communist variety...

...DISSENT readers may have heard some of the controversy over the work of this group...

...However, looking back on the campaign with the advantage of hindsight (a form of wisdom never in short supply), it would perhaps have been better to have taken the risks...

...This kind of personal contact with people there, demonstrating that at least some Americans are strong respecters of the sentiments of Dominicans and are hostile to authoritarian government, was one of the greatest benefits of our presence...

...he swept Santo Domingo by about the same margin that Balaguer had in the total vote...

...Nor is it by any means certain that Balaguer's victory will bring what many of those who voted for him must have wanted most of all—a period of calm for their country...

...There are some Dominicans who are so jaded that they will tell you Trujillo, because he kept order, was good for the country...

...If it is the former, it will be entirely justifiable...

...Many were disappointed by the outcome of the election...

...The major threat to this course of events is not the left extremism that so preoccupies American officials—the Dominican Communists, though noisy, seem few...

...These charges should be thoroughly and impartially investigated...

...Another possibility is that Balaguer was able to set aside a large nest egg during his service in the Trujillo regime...

...Richard Shaull and other notables, was sent to the Dominican Republic...

...The American Embassy probably reads the Balaguer victory as a show of genuinely conservative sentiment rather than a temporary submission in the face of the overwhelming power of the United States and Dominican armed forces...

...I The most plausible explanation for the Balaguer victory is that many Dominicans have grown weary and a little cynical about politics...

...Under these circumstances the United States should use its influence to prevent the military from regaining power...

...policies in South America...

...If it is to be constructive and democratic, the Dominican military must be vigorously restrained...

...In the provinces this cynicism is probably the same that progressive forces have often encountered among peasants...

...While the Committee has been criticized in the United States for interfering in the elections, no such criticisms were heard in the Dominican Republic...

...And while there are prob ably some hotheads among Bosch supporters, their restraint during the occupation and the pre-election period was impressive...

...They are wedded to the routine of agricultural life, and resent protracted disruptions of that routine caused by political efforts, often incomprehensible to them, that have been stirred up in the cities...

...Given the unhappy result of the election, one can only hope that Balaguer will redeem his pledge to see that foreign troops are withdrawn from the country (though he seems already to be hedging on this matter...

...The Committee decided to send a number of independent observers, drawn from a variety of American nations, to go throughout the country during the election period...

...Many people felt, as some told me directly, that if Bosch were elected he would immediately be forced into conflict with the military...

...The PRD could be a mainstay of anti-militarism, and press Balaguer to live up to his campaign pledges, a number of which were not dissimilar to Bosch's...

...if fraud did occur they should be able to detect it...