Editorials Will war come?
Baumann, Paul
EDITORIALS Will war come? As the headline in the New York Post approvingly proclaimed, President George W. Bush's January 28 State of the Union speech was an instance of "Pounding the War Drum."...
...To keep the peace the threat of war must be real...
...Often that means twisting arms and talking tough...
...Those are not easy questions to answer...
...No president would do less...
...Will the decision to go to war, if it comes, "help shape the rules by which all states live," as Bryan Hehir asked in these pages about the 1991 Gulf War...
...military action against terrorist "entities" or states that harbor terrorists, is rightly resisted by other nations...
...On a more pragmatic level, with the UN on board, no matter how grudgingly, Arab states will find it much easier to at least tacitly support military action...
...The case against war rests largely on whether you think sanctions and inspections have worked in the past and are likely to work in the future...
...Neither, it must be said, would the UN be demanding Iraqi compliance if the United States were not threatening to act alone...
...Bush, say his advocates, is trying to strike a difficult and novel balance...
...To the president's credit, although he has preached unilateralism, in this case U.S...
...In the next few weeks, the world will learn if George W. Bush has been playing a masterly hand of diplomatic poker or if he has only succeeded in needlessly isolating the United States...
...Bush's penchant for making off-the-cuff, politically opportunistic remarks about his personal impatience with Hussein or America's moral exceptionalism does not increase confidence in his judgment...
...It's often more difficult to bring wars to an end and manage their consequences than to make the decision to wage war in the first place...
...It does not seem likely...
...Moreover, the open-ended mandate Bush has asserted for unilateral, and even preemptive, U.S...
...We will do everything in our power to make sure that day never comes...
...As the world's only military superpower, the United States has no choice but to lead forcefully in the effort to establish international peace and stability...
...Given the clandestine and itinerant nature of terrorist networks, alliances are crucial to preventing further catastrophic attacks...
...When the president denigrates our ties to other nations and the opinions of their elected leaders, he weakens this nation's defenses...
...Blix told the UN that Iraq remains uncooperative and has failed to account for known quantities of biological and chemical agents...
...Moreover, it seems clear that without the threat of U.S...
...After a dutiful resume of his domestic proposals, Bush launched an impassioned and emotionally effective presentation of the reasons for disarming Iraq and, short of that, for war with Hussein's regime...
...If Secretary Powell reveals convincing evidence of Hussein's ongoing capacity to produce weapons of mass destruction, the case for continued inspections will be weakened...
...So is international good will...
...Is Bush telling the truth...
...Bush is not without important allies already but, with UN backing, the case for military action gains considerable moral legitimacy...
...In light of these facts, will a containment strategy increase the chances Hussein will comply with UN resolutions...
...International cooperation and coordination are the first line of "homeland" security...
...Despite frequent disagreements and diplomatic clashes with Europe, particularly with France and Germany, the United States has, after all, worked through the UN in the effort to disarm Hussein...
...power and interests trump the very idea of rules...
...Or is he exploiting the national trauma of September 11 for political gain and adventurism abroad...
...Obviously, in analyzing the moral and political justification for war, much will depend on the credibility of Powell's evidence and the response of the Security Council...
...As we go to press, Secretary of State Colin Powell is about to present previously undisclosed "evidence" to the UN Security Council that Iraq is still pursuing weapons of mass destruction...
...Regardless of how one may judge the morality of deposing Hussein, the president has manifestly failed to prepare the American public for the possibility that the price of war and its aftermath will be high...
...The administration's explanations of the threat Iraq presents have been neither cogent nor consistent...
...He asserted, without offering new or compelling proof, that Iraq has ties to Al Qaeda and continues to pose an imminent danger to the United States and the world...
...When dealing with a brutal regime like Hussein's, diplomacy must be backed by credible force...
...Yet as Bush says, "The world has waited twelve years for Iraq to disarm...
...Bush's efforts to link Iraq with the events of September 11 and to make Hussein the principal target of the so-called war on terror do not stand up to scrutiny...
...Imagine those nineteen hijackers with other weapons, and other plans this time armed by Saddam Hussein," Bush suggested...
...actions have sent a different message...
...military action, Iraq would not have opened its doors to UN inspectors even now...
...Bush's skepticism about Iraqi compliance with UN disarmament mandates was given considerable weight earlier that week by the report of Hans Blix, the UN's chief weapons inspector...
...February 4,2003...
...That increases the chances that the reaction to the war in the Islamic world will be muted...
...Arrests of terrorist suspects across Europe and elsewhere demonstrate these undeniable facts...
...In the end, Bush strategists think, Europe has nothing to fear from the United States and will play its part...
...Hans Blix has called the conclusions drawn by the administration from his report precipitous and unwarranted...
...The war in Afghanistan was backed by a strong international consensus, as is evident by the many nations now helping to keep the peace and rebuild that country...
...Bush is eager to assure the American public that he is doing and will do "everything" in his power to protect their lives and safety...
...Bush's insistence, however, that the United States alone can effectively safeguard its citizens against terrorism is little more than demagoguery...
...Given Hussein's record and the difficulty of holding together a coalition willing to sustain a policy of sanctions and inspections, the risks of waiting are real...
...Or will it set a dangerous precedent where U.S...
...It is not clear if the United States will then seek a second UN resolution explicitly endorsing military action (an endorsement Bush has pointedly said he does not need...
...The moral questions facing those trying to decide if action against Iraq, whether UN sponsored or not, can meet just-war criteria are genuinely perplexing...
...It should...
...On this score, Bush and his advisers have been conspicuously vague about both the human and financial costs of war and what would be a lengthy occupation of Iraq...
...Both morally and practically, Bush strengthens his hand if he can unite a broad coalition behind him and especially if he can secure a resolution authorizing the use of force from the UN...
...In the months after that, we may learn if the use of force against an undeniably evil regime strengthens the idea of international law and helps to liberate an oppressed people or whether it flouts the rule of law, plunging an entire region, or more, into chaos...
...Blix "Finds No Proof Hussein Has Disarmed," said the New York Times headline...
...Yet serious objections remain...
Vol. 130 • February 2003 • No. 3
