Editorial Peace now?
Peace now? One of President George W. Bush's professed goals in going to war with Iraq was to change the political dynamic in the Middle East. A demonstration of U.S. willpower and military resolve...
...In making his case, Sharon for the first time referred to the West Bank and Gaza as "occupied" territory and openly questioned the wisdom of continuing to rule 3.5 million Palestinians...
...Yet to abandon Abbas is to hand victory to the extremists...
...Sharon and Abbas, their speeches largely written by U.S...
...He has also, for the first time, endorsed the idea of a Palestinian state and conceded that the viability of such a state requires that it control a contiguous territory...
...Arafat voiced similar objections...
...Without such a gesture on Israel's part, the new Palestinian prime minister will soon become irrelevant and the road map will lead back to a very familiar place...
...It is unclear exactly what sort of pressure he will be willing to exert, especially on Sharon...
...On June 4, Bush convened a summit in Jordan between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and the new Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas to launch the administration's "road map" to peace officially...
...Only days after the summit, five Israeli soldiers were killed in two separate attacks by Palestinian extremists...
...Only the United States can make that happen...
...In the meantime, what Sharon is up to is hardly clear...
...At the June 4 summit, Abbas denounced all violence against Israelis...
...Although the United States and Israel demand that he disarm the militants, by force if necessary, most observers agree that the Palestinian Authority's security forces, devastated by Israel over the past three years, do not have the capacity to confront Hamas or Islamic Jihad...
...June 10,2003une 10,2003...
...To what extent Bush is willing to stay the course-to "ride herd" on both parties, as he put it-and pay a political price for progress between Israelis and Palestinians is now being tested...
...words and actions...
...In return for the cessation of terrorist activity, he has promised to remove the onerous Israeli military presence and "restore normal life" to the Palestinians...
...Will he press Sharon to take the crucial first step by removing Jewish settlers, and not just marginal "outposts," from Palestinian land...
...willpower and military resolve was intended, at least in part, to convince Arab leaders that politics as usual, especially support for Islamic terrorist groups, could not continue...
...Abbas and the Palestinian Authority must disarm militant Islamists and other terrorists, and thus put an end to attacks on Israeli civilians...
...At the same time, in the aftermath of the recent killings, he has assured Israelis that the Palestinians will get "nothing" until terrorist attacks stop...
...In Afghanistan and Iraq, his inattention to what comes after military victory continues to erode confidence and trust in U.S...
...At this point, such skepticism is all too justified...
...There is widespread suspicion that he wants to create the appearance of involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, but will be content to maintain the status quo during the run-up to the 2004 presidential election...
...Predictably, both Abbas and Sharon were denounced for conceding too much...
...Less than twenty-four hours after the summit meeting, Hamas denounced Abbas and vowed to continue the armed struggle...
...This is not a president who has shown a willingness to alienate his political base, one that includes strongly pro-Sharon evangelicals and neoconservative Jews...
...Any progress toward peace will require the suppression on both sides of powerful internal political factions opposed to Israel-Palestinian coexistence...
...Still, Sharon has surprised many by the forceful way he won approval for the road map from his fractious, right-wing cabinet...
...Not only the Palestinians are doubtful...
...Having overthrown Saddam Hussein and occupied Iraq, Bush has finally assumed his role as the necessary arbitrator of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a role he had shunned by refusing to deal with Palestinian Authority President Yasir Arafat...
...Abbas, though, is seen by many Palestinians as being under the thumb of the United States...
...Will Bush sweat the details in this case...
...Reaction from rejectionists in Israel and among the Palestinians was swift...
...Sharon, of course, is an architect of the settlement movement and has built his political career on pandering to the most fervid elements of the Israeli right...
...President Bush is notorious for "not sweating the details...
...Any real hope for peace begins with the dismantling of illegal settlements in the occupied territories...
...Can Bush move either side forward...
...That included Arab support for the nearly three-year-old "second" intifada against Israel...
...Having refused to deal with Arafat because of his complicity in violence, can Bush champion Abbas while killing goes on...
...diplomats, agreed to begin the arduous process of negotiation...
...Civil conflict seems unavoidable, should Sharon order the army to remove settlers...
...Is he really prepared to change course at this late date...
...Like much of Bush's foreign policy, the road map so far has been more photo-op than effective diplomacy...
...outposts...
...Sharon, less forthcoming, promised to remove "unauthorized...
...Despite the recent attacks, there is a profound imbalance of power between the Israelis and the Palestinians, one that only the United States can help put right...
...Any hope for Abbas to emerge as an alternative to Arafat and as a genuine Palestinian leader committed to nonviolence depends on his ability to gain tangible concessions from Israel, thereby undermining the appeal of Hamas and others...
...His apparent willingness to consider dismantling settlements caused a political firestorm, sending tens of thousands of outraged settlement supporters into the streets of Jerusalem shouting betrayal and vowing resistance...
...Sharon must halt the establishment of further Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and eventually dismantle settlements that make the creation of a contiguous Palestinian state impossible...
...In theory the road map calls on both sides to make a series of concessions designed to build trust and to move toward a two-state solution by 2005...
...The subsequent attacks on Israeli soldiers were clearly designed to underscore Abbas's political weakness...
Vol. 130 • June 2003 • No. 12
