After Baghdad
Downey, Arthur T.
AFTER BAGHDAD Arthur T. Downey Questions for Middle East policy At the end of World War I, when the British marched from Basra to Baghdad and the Ottoman Empire toppled, the Brits said they were...
...Iran has interests in Shiite Islam's holiest shrines in Iraq, Najaf and Kar-bala, which offer potential for Iranian mischief...
...Now the question is whether the second President Bush will rise to the challenge...
...AFTER BAGHDAD Arthur T. Downey Questions for Middle East policy At the end of World War I, when the British marched from Basra to Baghdad and the Ottoman Empire toppled, the Brits said they were in Mesopotamia to liberate the Arabs from Turkish oppression, and they promised to leave shortly...
...Reformers will argue that the best way to resist the United States is by reforming Iran's institutions and achieving democratic accountability...
...Since the fall of Baghdad, Washington has applied maximum pressure on Syria's young President Bashar al-Assad to ensure that Syria does not make mischief in Iraq...
...Tehran is interested in obtaining a nuclear deterrent for its protection against the United States (and maybe against Israel), and it is watching Pyongyang closely...
...Why take the risk of alienating the Religious Right and American supporters of Israel...
...Baghdad's prominent place in Arab and Muslim history made its swift capitulation even more painful...
...Few believe that Washington will insist that Israel fully implement the so-called road map for peace...
...victory in Iraq was greeted with ambivalence: Saddam had no defenders in Tehran, but to have him defeated by the Great Satan was unsettling...
...Arabs had hoped that the army of the second largest Arab country would at least bloody the Americans-not because Arabs supported Saddam, but because they hoped that physical resistance to America might restore some pride-in contrast to the hollow and impotent words of their own governments...
...It could be quickly dominated by Shiite clerics who insist on an Iran-styled theocracy, one that is not only anti-American but also less than gentle toward its minorities...
...Most Arabs are convinced that the U.S...
...relations with Europe-this time including even Britain...
...While relieved that the war was over, there was pain in the Arab world at yet another humiliating defeat, exacerbated by daily TV pictures of Palestinian humiliation...
...To counteract the first, it is important to get out of Iraq ASAP, but if we leave too soon, Iraq could easily fly apart, becoming an Arab version of Yugoslavia...
...In Iran, the swift U.S...
...move against Iraq was but another in a long series of colonialist efforts to occupy, control oil, and subjugate...
...With these "facts on the ground" more deeply entrenched, creating a contiguous state of Palestine will be nearly impossible...
...Thus it is essential for Washington to do all in its power to demonstrate that those two propositions are wrong...
...They stayed forty years...
...Bush has earned great political capital with American supporters of Israel...
...Iranians understand their place on George W. Bush's Axis of Evil, and wonder whether they will be the next American target...
...Iran itself remains in the midst of a serious, prolonged civil war, and the Iraq war will likely further Iran's internal polarization...
...Hatred for Israel in the region is intense, inflamed by Arab media and clerics...
...He gambled on going into Iraq-a war of choice-and maybe he'll gamble on this too.gamble on this too...
...Beyond that, there is little to justify excessive pressure, and nothing to justify military measures against Syria...
...Though Shiites are majorities in both Iran and Iraq, nonetheless they remain Persians and Arabs-and so there is some reason to hope that Persian fundamentalism will be kept in check by Arab nationalism in Iraq...
...Iran now feels encircled by American forces on its borders in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Turkey, and close by in the Gulf and Uzbekistan...
...That's the operative word: humiliation...
...What chance is there he will have the courage to take on the Israelis, as no president has since Eisenhower during the 1956 Suez Crisis...
...and that it was orchestrated by Israel as part of a larger plan to install a pro-Israeli government in Iraq, to be followed by Syria and Iran...
...Until now, Bush II has handled the Palestine/Israeli problem as if it were a soiled diaper...
...Bush has enough on his plate-rebuilding Iraq, defusing North Korea, and getting the U.S...
...The first Gulf war reshaped the Middle East, and paved the way for serious work on the Israel-Palestine problem: the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference which led to the 1993 Oslo Accords...
...Given this history, what would lead an Iraqi-or any Arab-to buy into the U.S...
...The humiliated Arabs now fear that the United States may be unstoppable, and that Washington may try to remake the region on Israel's terms...
...That was an important step for the first President Bush...
...But if that were to happen, there could be a further breakdown in U.S...
...it is equally true that when an Arab looks at an American he sees an Israeli...
...Israel would welcome anything that runs the clock, so that it can create more settlements in the West Bank and Gaza...
...On the other hand, if the Americans stay too long, it will confirm the Arabs' worst fears and risk our getting sucked into a quagmire...
...Some deal must be struck with the help of the European Union and the UN to put some limits on Iran's nuclear research-before Israel acts militarily...
...The hard trick will be to locate the right departure time: not too soon, not too long...
...To counteract the second Arab conclusion-that the United States is acting for Israel-there is only one step Washington can take: to push the Israeli government toward a just and durable settlement with the Palestinians...
...Humiliation breeds anger and militancy...
...Let us hope that he will...
...the second Bush has already asked Congress for $10 billion for Israel this year-hardly a sign of exerting pressure on the Sharon government...
...Conservatives will argue that the threat from the United States means the reformers should be further undermined, maybe even by disbanding parliament...
...If it is true that when an American looks at an Arab, he sees a terrorist...
...Better, his political advisors will suggest, simply to create the impression he is trying: lots of diplomatic activity-an international conference (even in Paris)-to eat up the clock at no political risk...
...Would the United States block such a democratic result...
...If not, he may be faced with the growing furor of the Arab and Muslim worlds...
...The first Bush withheld a housing loan to Israel to press it to participate in the Madrid conference...
...To Arab ears and eyes, history runs even deeper: a headline in a Cairo newspaper last month read "Crusaders Occupy Iraq...
...These two viewpoints complement and overlap each other...
...The question now is whether he will be willing to draw on it...
...rhetoric that we're just selfless liberators eager to leave...
...economy moving...
Vol. 130 • May 2003 • No. 10
