DIVINING THE ELECTORATE
Leege, David C.
DIVINING THE ELECTORATE Is there a religious vote? David C. Leege U s there a religious vote? The answer is complex tions. By most objective standards, Carter was...
...In 1964, Mainliners culturally...
...This litical outlooks and behavior of white Evangelicals...
...11 Commonweal 1 9 October 20, 2000...
...Catholics below fifty have the infrequent attendance life issues where the church has offered clear proscriptive patterns of Mainline Protestants...
...But to some whites Here's how to vote it also means that no federal court order "will force my child to attend a predominantly black school...
...Second, forty years ago Catholics religion in daily life, feeling close to other Catholics, and had the highest church attendance levels of any religious tra- the interaction of the first two-we find a religious impact dition, but this has changed...
...By most objective standards, Carter was the more "reand ambiguous...
...It has never been easy to be white Evangelicals and some Catholics, it was not as strong a consistent Christian in American politics...
...DIVINING THE ELECTORATE Is there a religious vote...
...chored in race and the role of the to sit out the election...
...The analysis of survey data about the role religion plays in voter behavior does not allow us to draw any simple lessons...
...Nixon, Reagan, and Bush tions...
...In fact, from 1968 to gies over the last forty years have for campaign themes 1988 almost the entire story of the involved appeals to these religious from Dwight Eisenhower white Evangelical shift from Detraditions in an effort either to draw mocrats to Republicans is anthem to the other party or get them to George W. Bush...
...Certainly those white its disregard for inequality, nor assuming that all problems Catholics at the lower to middle rungs of the occupational are best solved by large federal spending programs...
...White the core of the Democratic coalition, Catholics are the largest Evangelical opposition to federal Mainline Protestants in the core of single church body civil-rights policies and negative the Republican Party, and African in the American electorate feelings toward blacks outweighed American Christians split between their concerns over moral issues the two parties (or not voting at all...
...To others it is assurance that a ticket and a party that is pro-life, pro-family, teachers' unions led by women, Jews, and blacks, or "alternate and pro-poor...
...why Governor George W. Bush has positioned himself at the moral center-in favor of religion-in-general, character, Evangelicals White Evangelical Protestants were the next compassion, opportunity for all, and tolerance...
...By the 1990s, Evangelicals had moved in droves to the Republicans because of their beliefs about the moral life...
...In Nixon's 1972 victory over George Mc- visions, is there any basis for thinking that a "religious vote" Govern, there also is substantial defection to the Democrats exists among Catholics...
...as a potential religious vote...
...Even more groups and repel others...
...I It's not clear to me why this formulation For many who felt that the growth of big government threat- (which I was introduced to by the Reverend Eugene Rivers ened America's unique blend of democracy and republi- and political scientist John Dilulio) seems so odd to so many canism, the reduction of taxes was the way to reduce that people...
...Throughout the post-New Deal period, vored the Republican Party...
...when economic and cultural conservatives took over the And when we examine the voting preferences of African Americans, Evangelicals, and Mainstream Protestants, further complexities can be demonstrated...
...As we shall see, Mainline Protestants and highly ed- Americans have resisted efforts of the Christian Coalition ucated Republicans thought their party had abandoned its to tap into their cultural conservatism and bring them back heritage of advancing opportunity for minorities and women to the Republican Party...
...powerful during the sixties, seventies, and eight- Neither party meets my criteria...
...Watching Senariences of the 1980s and 1990s added fuel to partisan transitions...
...Given the nature of the 2000 election campaign, it appears that the Republican nominee is aiming at Catholics and Mainline Protestants for whom religion is not a tight set of laws but a source of goodness...
...Contrast him to his opponent Jimmy Carter, a born-again Southern Baptist, a Sunday school teacher, and brother to a prominent faith healer...
...From 1968 to 1992, racially ing the Reagan years...
...Republicans, as the minority party, Although Senator Barry Goldwater made heavy use of have had to shrink the size of the moral restorationist themes in electorate or generate defections 1964, statistically significant shifts among Democrats...
...Second, each party up to the infidels, the moral relativists, and traitors in Holis currently in the process of abandoning the extremes- lywood and Berkeley...
...have babies out of wedlock...
...And not sur- group to make a wholesale shift...
...For me it follows from a commitment to the essential danger...
...In the public mind, he had stood tions, they must cater to it...
...To some, "local Mary Jo Bane control of schools" and "school vouchers" are practical ways to reform education and provide an alternative for minorities would like to vote, this year or sometime, for trapped in terrible schools...
...Given Evangelicals' cultural E Democrats, as the majority party, have had to en- conservatism, we would expect the Republican appeal for courage higher turnout, stressing economic and moral restoration to explain their displeasure with Democsocial insurance issues and trying to mute advantages the Re- rats and their shift to the Republican Party...
...of political religion, where economic well-being, perhaps In fact, religion has probably been overrated as a factor beeven greed, motivates voters more than their moral and re- fore the 1990s...
...By every measure of moral prisingly, Vice President Al Gore checkmated that strategy restorationism-opposition to abortion, support for school by selecting Senator Joseph Lieberman, a running mate who prayer, opposition to civil rights for homosexuals, hesitance is not afraid to speak for religious values in the public square...
...Their modest movement toward the Demo- frequently than younger men and are predominantly Democratic Party mirrors those factors that attracted white Evan- cratic...
...For the most part, being Catholic or even being a good Catholic predicts little about a person's views about social justice and government programs...
...And because democratic politics is the best mechanism we have yet invented for doing our public work What we can conclude, however, is that histori- this side of the kingdom, it means being committed to open, cally racial symbols and code words were more thoughtful, evidence-based deliberation...
...Antipathy toward the Catholic Kennedy affected ach party has a different task during a national their vote in 1960, but only since 1968 have they gradually faelection...
...In the 1980s some Mainliners were already voting Democratic in reaction against the cultural themes Republican leaders were articulating...
...And it appears that the Democratic nominees are determined to contest that same terrain...
...That is cerns paramount and remained loyal to the Democrats...
...Recently, African Republican Party more hospitable than the Democratic Party...
...Given these differences and diliberty is no vice...
...The post-New of Evangelicals to the Republican Deal period began with Catholics, Party for these reasons do not Evangelical Protestants, and Jews in occur until 1972...
...Only in 1996, Mainliners in the old core of the party...
...partners...
...The black ing throughout the country, kept its century-old animus to churches stimulated political participation well beyond what the federal government and attached it to race and social a socioeconomic model would predict...
...term abortions...
...But the facts are publicans held on traditional moral-order issues (race, foreign more ambiguous...
...Big government" became a da, emphasizing issues such as opposition to gay rights, sex racially charged code word, as did phrases like "liberal," "tax and violence in the media, and the decline of character in high and spend," "welfare," "crime," "law and order," "gun conoffice...
...Abolishing welfare as we know it" might be a tion, life from its beginning to its end, but with due concern principled way to reduce intergenerational dependence on for the middle years as well...
...and have been linked to gender, sexuality, or A large part of the campaign strate- a principal target school prayer...
...We do not yet know whether the 1996 election will have initiated a religious-based political realignment that will see large number of Catholics follow Evangelicals into the Republican Party...
...Race, racial differences...
...And There are two important things to remember about Catholics here it is the generation of Mass-attending women over fifty...
...First, Catholics are the largest Furthermore, when we examine a set of four characterissingle church body in the American electorate and have been tics that signal deeper identification with the Catholic coma principal target for campaign themes from Dwight Eisen- munity-frequent Mass attendance, the importance of hower to George W. Bush...
...relations, gender, etc...
...For someone (quoting ies in drawing Catholics and Evangelicals to here Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan) who was "baptized the Republican Party than appeals to patriotism or the moral a Catholic but born a Democrat," this year's Democratic prirestoration agenda...
...On the other hand, when prescriptive teachings about social justice, equal opportunity, and a preferential option for the poor are involved, those who have a deeper identification with the Catholic community show greater ambiguity...
...At the same time, voters also may respond to less principled subthemes voiced by politicians to take advantage of fears or of racial and gender stereotypes...
...Thus, this sector of Catholic voters is likely to feel cross-pressured in 2000...
...With federal guar- spending...
...YOU CATHOLIC...
...gious groups: African American Christians since the six- And over the decades Evangelicals have replaced Mainline ties and white Evangelical Protestants more recently...
...President Carter had fashioned a peace initiative at Camp David anchored in prayer, reading, and discussion of sacred Scriptures, and Polls mutual respect for the Jewish, Christian, and Muslim tradiDavid C. Leege is professor of government and director of the Program for Research on Religion, Church, and Society at the University of Notre Dame...
...It means ladder were in competition with African Americans for jobs, not assuming that everything that is sinful ought also to be homes, and neighborhoods...
...Reagan, however, could speak persuasivethere is a religious vote and that, in close elec- ly about religion-in-general...
...First of all, politicians think ligious" person...
...Fi- Protestants as the dominant religious tradition at the core of nally, a creedal basis for voting is difficult to sustain in the the Republican Party...
...However, as journalist Thomas Edsall has suggest- dignity and equality of every human person...
...These are both humangelicals...
...David C. Leege U s there a religious vote...
...This means that younger teaching...
...Commonweal 1 7 October 20, 2000 Mainline White Mainline Protestants such as Methodists, Catholics are less often exposed to sacramental rites and social Presbyterians, Episcopalians, Congregationalists-have al- teachings...
...It is important to reCatholic voters for these reasons is uncertain...
...In fact, Some of the complexities of this issue can be seen in a Republicans suffered backdoor losses as early as Goldwater brief look at the "Catholic vote" over the last four decades...
...about women's roles outside the home, etc.-Evangelicals are Nor, for that matter, is Gore...
...We can further conclude that the expe- mary had some truly depressing moments...
...family advocates" "will not get their hands on my child...
...disentangle...
...Bush's use of themes about religion-in-general, in- Still, many of those Catholics who moved to the Republiclusiveness, tolerance, and equal opportunity at the Philadel- cans showed less receptiveness to government action and phia Republican convention were certainly addressed to less warmth toward minorities and the poor...
...However, for many Americans it was the way vulnerable: the unborn, the dying, the young, the oppressed, to remove a presumed financial incentive for black women to the poor, and even the criminal...
...on race and gender issues...
...During the civil rights era, African American churches tor until 1992 and 1996...
...Ever since Nixon, Evangelicals have found the antees in place, they got out the vote...
...They are also the first religious group to I for example, has had a much stronger impact take notice of the moral-restorationist themes deployed dur- on voting patterns...
...This year, for federal government in seeking to example, the Republicans formed a assure greater opportunity for miCatholic task force to court Catholic norities...
...a factor as economics, race, or American patriotism...
...Such defections to the Democrats over Republican racial policies continued until 1992...
...Commonweal 16 October 20, 2000 party...
...Again, as with Evangelicals, it is criminal, but also not precluding the possibility of influimportant to remember that racial and class conflicts are hard encing or regulating moral behavior, for example on lateto disentangle...
...Together with Kenneth Wald, Brian Krueger, and "You're wasting your tune herePaul Mueller, he is the author of a forthcoming book on The Politics I had a political opinion once, but it didn't work out...
...Commonweal 1 8 October 20, 2000 Campaign rhetoric may articulate a principled theme and voters may embrace it...
...Many t is not clear that moral-restorationist issues draMainliners reject their party's use of code words to heighten matically affect the way Catholics vote...
...The only exception is among older Catholic women...
...They remained Republican, they have become unreliable coalition also show more warmth toward minorities and the poor...
...Catholics are gention of 1988 when the use of the Willie Horton ad made race erally more willing than other religious groups to use the dominant again...
...for Republicans the "culture wars," for Democrats, per- Reagan, in fact, did attract Catholic voters in 1980, although missiveness-that appeal to some religious or irreligious not as effectively as Richard Nixon had in 1972...
...Let's examine the member, of course, that racial and class conflicts are hard to last four decades group by group...
...This is also the segment of the church that is slightly more favorable toward government involvement in social support and equal opportunity programs...
...After all, this was the basis swing voters who are attracted to of Nixon's famous "Southern Stratthe party's moral-restoration agen- egy...
...This rewas the first religious group to make a wholesale shift to ligious tradition, heavily anchored in the South but spreadone party, in this case, to the Democrats in 1964...
...Younger women attend Mass slightly more litical impulses...
...Yet, considering his flip-flop on abortion from prochoice as governor to prolife as a presidential candidate, A% the reality of his family(ies) life, his playfulness with truth, and his aversion to churchgoing, Reagan was a morally ambiguous figure...
...It takes its stand with the most government...
...In fact, Republican defections over race and women ders continue to look a lot more like each other: they attend were a far greater cause of Goldwater's defeat than was fear Mass quite regularly, are economically liberal and somewhat of his strident anticommunism ("Extremism in the defense of more conservative culturally...
...Finally, the depth of identification with the Catholic community also predicts very little about warmth toward minorities or the poor...
...Blacks have kept social-justice conand was catering too much to the Religious Right...
...the most culturally conservative religious group in the electorate...
...All of this makes it sound as if we have United States where office-seekers use (and abuse) religious witnessed in recent decades a religious influence in national symbols, where civil religion remains the dominant form electoral politics unparalleled in our history...
...Very modest numbers of Catholics were moving to the Republicans because of these same issues...
...Their eltives...
...of Cultural Differences...
...Perhaps this is closer to what it means to be a good American than what it means to be a consistent Christian...
...It restates the ed, for many whites reducing taxes was a way to keep their very Catholic notion of a consistent ethic of life, which seeks hard earned dollars from being redistributed to indolent to cherish and enhance, through both private and public acblack hands...
...Third, voter data suggest that faith- than Reagan, George Bush attracted Catholics in 1988, but based voting occurs only at the margins of American elec- lost them just as abruptly in 1992...
...Throughout this period, no couraged morality in our daily lives has dominated the pogroup matched the religious involvement of blacks...
...While the moral restorationist factor is modestly evident African Americans If they could vote at all, African Amer- in our analyses of voting behavior throughout the 1970s and icans long voted Republican-the party of Abraham Lin- the Reagan years, it does not replace race as the central faccoln...
...Do Catholics respond to princi- As I have thought it through, being pro-life, pro-family, pled appeals, or to stereotyping, or to a sense of relative de- and pro-poor means neither idolizing the free market with privation...
...Whether the Republicans will succeed in attracting trol," and "local control of schools...
...significantly push Catholics in a Republican direction...
...States' rights" can mean democratic responsiveness from a unit of government closer to the people...
...Only in the 1990s can we say unincreasingly stressed the relationship of religious themes to equivocally that a religious vote concerned with state-ensocial and economic justice...
...Although white Mainline Protestants have government to resolve problems of equal opportunity...
...We are told that 1980 was the fulcrum election, that people of faith, especially Catholics, were drawn to Ronald Reagan because of his promise to outlaw abortion, his staunch anticommunism, his family values, and his support for moral character...
...This becomes the dominant reason charged issues were far and away the dominant reason why some vote Democratic from 1980 until 1996 (with the excep- white Catholics left the Democratic Party...
...The largest gender gap of any religious group resented the takeover of the party by Goldwater conserva- opened up in the 1990s among younger Catholics...
...they are slightly more liberal, both economically and gelical Protestants to the Republicans...
...after four years of the Clintons, does the cluster of issues and group feelings that constitute a moral restorationist program Catholics Finally, let's look at white (non-Hispanic) Catholics...
...Younger men attend Mass less frequently and are ways been at the core of the Republican Party, and tradi- predominantly Republican, economically conservative, and tionally have been civic-minded and reformist in their po- culturally liberal...
...While religion did mobilize previous nonligious beliefs, and where intergroup conflicts lie fallow voters, and did rationalize the realignment of many Southern only for short periods of time...
...Today Catholics over age fifty with some regularity on two issues: opposition to abortion display the high level of attendance that characterizes Evan- and opposition to the death penalty...
...Or that this year's Republican effort to by white Mainline Republicans who are committed to change woo Catholics on moral and cultural issues will work...
...However, faith-based voting is central for some reli- also attracted Evangelical Protestants from the Democrats...
...It is difficult to know...
Vol. 127 • October 2000 • No. 18
