It's the culture, stupid
Carlin, David R. Jr.
IT'S THE CULTURE, STUPID THE IRONY OF CLINTON'S SUCCESS he irony of Bill Clinton's situation is that if he succeeds in doing the job he got elected to do, there is a real likelihood he will...
...2) that in difficult economic times voters worry more about economic than cultural issues...
...4) good economy, Democrat in White House...
...The trouble with all these explanations is that they explain a major event (the possible failure of the Clinton presidency) in terms of relatively trivia] causes...
...They say, "Sure, he's been good for the economy...
...There are four possible situations facing a liberal or semi-liberal Democrat running for president: (1) bad economy, Republican in White House...
...The answer, I submit, is to be found in assumption number 3 mentioned above, namely, that in good economic times people turn their attention to cultural issues...
...This would be no problem if the public were in agreement with Clinton on such issues...
...e.g., if Cleopatra's nose had been half an inch longer or shorter than it was, the entire course of human history would have been different...
...It's like saying that a roomful of monkeys hitting typewriter keys at random could produce a New York Times poll showing the president with an approval rating under 40 percent...
...as is normal in such cases, cultural issues had a day off...
...or because he is a pragmatist whose spouse is an ideologue...
...but it isn't the economy that's worrying me right now...
...They don't change horses because they want to conduct a scientific experiment that will determine with mathematical precision the causal connection between presidential actions A, B, and C and economic consequences X, Y, and Z. No, they hope that changing horses will lead to a comfortable ride...
...So let's see what an amateur's hand can do at providing a proportional explanation for Clinton's problems...
...By any reasonable measure, we would have to judge his presidency to be a great success...
...in a culture of cynicism even George Washington and Abraham Lincoln would have had failed presidencies...
...But if so, why are so many ready to fire him...
...or at least he is seen as married to the liberals—"married" in the metaphorical sense and perhaps in the literal sense as well...
...IT'S THE CULTURE, STUPID THE IRONY OF CLINTON'S SUCCESS he irony of Bill Clinton's situation is that if he succeeds in doing the job he got elected to do, there is a real likelihood he will be thrown out of office...
...Why does his successful presidency appear to be teetering on the brink of failure...
...Some may object that the expanding economy is not the result of anything Clinton did...
...They would then say, "He's good on the economy, and he's good on the culture too...
...but the anti-Bush vote was in excess of 60 percent (Ross Perot getting about 20 percent...
...and (3) that in good economic times they worry more about cultural issues...
...Otherwise they will be permanent occupants...
...This prejudice stands in contrast to an alternative view, the "Cleopatra's nose" theory of history, according to which major events are sometimes produced by trivial causes...
...or because, unlike Ronald Reagan, Clinton has too many items on his agenda...
...It is, they say, because he gives too few press conferences...
...But unfortunately for this theory, Americans don't yet suffer from a generalized cynicism, even though large numbers may be cynical about Bill Clinton in particular...
...2) good economy, Republican in White House...
...Before explaining what I mean, I should confess that one of my abiding prejudices is that in accounting for great historical and political events one should find causes proportionate to effects...
...But this is a quibble...
...Aren't we lucky to have him...
...3) bad economy, Democrat in White House...
...But economic issues were in the saddle in 1992...
...or because people in the White House didn't like David Gergen...
...9 OF SEVERAL HINDS David R. Carlin, Jr...
...Clinton's own explanation is that he is the victim of a culture of cynicism, skillfully exploited by Rush Limbaugh and his ilk...
...It's the culture, stupid...
...If my analysis is correct, Clinton— or for that matter, any other liberal Democrat—can get elected only in situation number 1, the case that prevailed in 1992...
...Now, I have absolutely no connection with the Washington press corps...
...I make three assumptions: (1) that voters have both economic and cultural interests...
...The voters blamed George Bush, and they decided to replace him with someone who would fix the economy...
...Cynicism is a powerful force...
...D 10...
...When voters are unhappy with the economy and they change presidents, they do not do so out of motives of intellectual curiosity...
...or because he overexposes himself on TV...
...It is now two years later, and the economy is in relatively good shape...
...Whatever Clinton may be in his heart of hearts, he is perceived as being a liberal...
...As long as the desired outcome is achieved, they could care less whether this is the result of scientific decision-making, pure good luck, or a miraculous intervention from heaven...
...Critics of the Bush campaign fault him for not having exploited cultural issues, e.g., Clinton's support for gays in the military...
...Oddly enough, they never mention the problem of an absurdly large Washington press corps, which, by a kind of Parkinson's Law of journalism, justifies its existence by making mountains out of molehills...
...etc., etc...
...But the public is convinced, and is becoming more convinced daily, that liberals are wrong on cultural issues: wrong on morality, wrong on religion, wrong on family, wrong on sex, wrong on education, wrong on crime, wrong on the underclass, and perhaps even wrong on race...
...I have been listening to the wise men and women of the Washington press explain why Bill Clinton is in trouble...
...Clinton was not exactly their overwhelming favorite, getting only 43 percent of the vote...
...Unfortunately for the president, the public does not agree with him on cultural issues...
...The Republicans will vacate the White House for four years whenever there is an economic downturn in the year or two preceding an election...
...If the national Democrats are determined to remain faithful to their religion of cultural liberalism, they will have to resign themselves to winning a one-term presidency every twelve, sixteen, or twenty years...
...that it had already begun to expand during the last months of Bush's term...
...he has carried out his contract with the American people...
...or because former chief of staff Mack McLarty was too nice a guy...
...Clinton got elected because the economy was in trouble during much of 1991 - 92...
...In other words, Clinton has done the job he was hired to do...
...So Clinton's administration has been a success when measured by the main promise he made when running for office...
...Though I don't agree with this explanation, at least it has the merit of proportionality...
...that Clinton just happened to be lucky...
Vol. 121 • September 1994 • No. 16
