Worse yet to come?
Broun, Janice
REPORT ON THE BALKANS the north where most of the monasteries are located. Serb...
...ego, Serbia favors carving it up with Greece and Albania...
...Should ered relations with the Macedonian Orthodox church follow- this happen, 2 million Albanians could spill over into Macedonia ing the erection of crosses in mainly Muslim towns...
...While the and Albania and bring the total of unwanted European refugees new Macedonian constitution recognizes as citizens only peo- to nearly 5 million...
...Panic was ousted in late December...
...That could bring it into a collision course Extremist, potentially violent Albanian irridentism is spread- with Serbia, fellow NATO power Greece, and even, if Yeltsin ing, demanding the unification of all Balkan Albanians- fell, Russia...
...of Serb policy...
...Most observers do not expect Kosovans to remain quiescent The EC's prime concern should have been to stabilize much longer...
...Beyond of the cold war...
...The United States now looks Sandjack region, or Albania-into one state...
...Kosovo because of World War II, when Kosovo and Albania were briefly is their most treasured possession, spoken of in biblical terms united under Italian rule...
...the lic showed little interest and expressions of the altered landscape of old idea of state sovereignty clashes today the candidates obliged them...
...Then, in 1937, an ambitious of the fact that it is 92 percent ethnic Albanian...
...Its greatest fear is war in Kosovo...
...He usually attributed the change to These speculations are fascinating, but liferation...
...The two key CLINTON ON THE WORLD STAGE ideas at stake here are sovereignty and nonSOME CLUES TO HIS PERSPECTIVE intervention...
...case...
...the national security team...
...If there is a major Balkan war, the EC must the militantly anti-Communist Balli Kombetar, crushed during bear much of the blame...
...Serb mothers, bear more children...
...Greece, whose fixation with its past comRadical party...
...Instead, they allowed protest strongly that the church is placing itself at the service Serbia to rip Bosnia apart...
...In the 1990s and beyond, was strikingly devoid of for- end of the cold war...
...The foundations Europe's leaders are at long last getting the message that what of a Serbian Orthodox cathedral have been laid on the campus Bosnia suffered was not war, but cold and calculated invasion, of Pristina University, originally founded for Albanians but now a message they should have gotten from the example of the blood- an almost entirely Serbian institution, prompting the DSK to bath Serbia created previously in Croatia...
...The Janice Broun, formerly Eastern European correspondentfor organization is demanding the return of Kosovo and jeo- News Network International, writes frequently on the Balkans pardizing the Albanian government's attempts to prevent a for Commonweal...
...The Serbian elections conIN hat happened in Bosnia-Herzegovina must firmed the supremacy of the extreme nationalists...
...Some of these, have, ironically, social tensions...
...Turkey, the most stathreatened a blockade to prevent Bosnian Muslims from set- bilizing power in the Balkans, is ready to intervene militarily tling locally...
...In trying to assess the direction a of power in the world...
...The KOSOVO & MACEDONIA Albanians, with their self-proclaimed "Kacanicka Constitution" (see "The Next Explosion," Commonweal, July 17,1992) have demonstrated since 1990 their ability to create an alternative civil society, and can see no possible future for themselves within a paranoically nationalist Serbia...
...The analysts debate unipo- specific choices...
...Slav Macedonians and the Albanian minority, been guarded for centuries by Albanian Muslims...
...larity versus a return to multipolarity ver- The changing structure of power, for exWhen he did speak about foreign pol- sus some more complex configuration ample, has radically diminished the threat icy, Clinton began with the recognition that (military bipolarity plus economic tripo- of nuclear war...
...But whereFormer Serb Prime Minister Milan Panic's visit to Kosovo as Serbia, or at least Panic, recognized Macedonia in October, last October, the first ever attempt at dialogue from the Serb the EC consigned it to a kind of limbo, allowing itself to be dicgovernment, could have provided a breakthrough had he and tated to by Greece, the most blatant defaulter over the trade emhis initiative not been repudiated and denounced by the ruling bargo imposed on Serbia, and the EC has continued to withhold Socialist party and its powerful ally, the nationalist Serbian proper recognition...
...the perspectives bipolarity there is a vigorous, unsettled de- be understood and accounted for in polion foreign policy formed in the Clinton bate about the pattern of power which is cy planning, but most policies will address campaign...
...These events are un- sovereignty will be challenged by extereign policy debate...
...and the personnel chosen for taking shape...
...of Bill Clinton, both the nation and the significant level of change at work in the This double dimension of change-in world know less about his approach to for- life of states and nations...
...In November four people The Macedonian government feels itself the victim of forces died in riots in Skopje...
...Both had agreed too identify themselves with a name which distinguishes them that Albanian elementary schools, closed for a year as the re- against past encroachments from Serbs, Greeks, and Bulgarians...
...Today both the pressure of events and the power of ideas have eroded the status of sovereignty and noninhe presidential campaign the collapse of the Soviet Union and the tervention...
...as their Jerusalem, the cradle of their nation...
...Bulgaria, Macedonia's other neighbor, would whether from Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, the Serbian probably try to avoid involvement...
...faces...
...Now these leaders have precious little leverage over Kosovo, Ethnic cleansing in Kosovo is not a new policy...
...The bipolar order It is the background for more concrete isClinton administration will follow there which stood at the heart of the cold-war sues which signal and exemplify the end are three resources available: the global conflict has been swept away...
...But the Macedonians Alliance (DSK), three seats in the federal cabinet...
...sult of an Albanian boycott against the suppression of the While Macedonian President Kiro Gligorov staked his governAlbanian language as a medium of instruction, be reopened...
...To most Serbs, a third of the population, have become increasingly polarized...
...the pub- doubtedly the most visible and concrete nal forces and by internal eruptions...
...The dissatisfaction with older Commonweal 29 January 1993: 5...
...Macedonia's new, impoverished, fragile democracy...
...world politics, but they should be seen in with both the logic of interdependence and Hence, as we approach the inauguration tandem with a less dramatic but no less claims of self-determination...
...WORLD WATCH they remain focused upon the distribution of power in the world...
...He had of- pares with Serbia's, claims proprietary rights to the name fered Ibrahim Rugova, head of the Kosovan Albanian Democratic Macedonia on (dubious) historical grounds...
...A second dimension of change-deeper and more elusive than the polarities of power-involves J. Bryan Hehir changing conceptions of the basic principles of international order...
...Greece's NATO troops, at the ready along ple who have lived in the republic for fifteen years, thousands its mountainous northern border to repel a fictive Macedonmore refugees are now arriving in Macedonia: Albanians flee- ian invasion, will keep refugees out and might slice off Epirus, ing grinding poverty in adjacent Albania or oppression in southern Albania...
...these two ideas have served, not without criticism, as the basic principles of international relations for over three centuries...
...JANICE BROUN World War 11 by Enver Hoxha, has come to life again...
...cessions on its side could topple Greece's government, and even Rugova maintains that only the presence of UN observers threatened to cease applying any sanctions against Serbia...
...The Serbian never be allowed to happen again...
...The Islamic community council sev- beyond its control...
...Kosovo, and Slav Muslims fleeing Bosnia...
...Zeljko ilar were to spread to the province of Raznatovic, alias Arkan, another of those accused of atrocities, Kosovo and to adjacent Macedonia...
...In Albania itself likely to intervene...
...million Kosovan Albanian voters boycotted the elections...
...Serbia regards scheme drawn up by Serb-dominated Yugoslavia collapsed only any intervention from outside forces as an act of war...
...As far as the ance, tolerance, and willingness to seek dialogue, and the gen- Serbs are concerned, Macedonia is dispensable, though aceral awareness that the fate of a rebellious Kosovo would be cording to Seselj, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic's alter even worse than Bosnia's, have prevented an uprising so far...
...The deeper changes must challenges the U.S...
...may increase the likelihood of nuclear profairs...
...The end of the both power and principles-is seldom adeign policy than would normally be the cold war yielded a change in the structure dressed directly in foreign-policy planning...
...surrender of Kosovo would be craven betrayal, though the It is now far more difficult to work out a satisfactory modus Orthodox Christian Vuk Draskovic of the Serb Renewal party, vivendi for the ethnic Albanians, who suffered considerable disin a surprise voile face, suggested partition, leaving Serbia with advantages under communism, especially in education...
...Christians in Prilep Other powers should not stand idly by...
...Serbia exsince for Serbia, Kosovo is a purely internal affair, irrespective perimented with it back in 1912...
...All utilized Kosovo as a launching pad for his political career with that Bosnia represented-a vibrant, contented, mutually toler- the rallying cry, "Drive Albanians back to their homeland, ant multicultural and religious society-has been swept away Albania...
...Rational dialogue ness...
...refugee families are being resettled in Kosovo...
...ment's positions on an unpopular compromise, "MacedoniaBut even Panic, though willing to discuss the restoration of Skopje," Greece, with the aid of frenzied demonstrations in Athens, Kosovan autonomy (revoked unilaterally by Serbia in 1989), convinced the Edinburgh EC Conference last December that conhad drawn the line at independence...
...Serb extremists, exploiting Kosovo as a major issue in December's national election, had a clear run there because a WORSE YET TO COME...
...It Radical party, whose leader Vojislav Seselj is accused of war would be catastrophic if something sim- crimes by the United States, won a quarter of the seats...
...He favors a neutral, independent, democratic, The EC ignored Gligorov's warning that nonrecognition, demilitarized republic with guaranteed rights to protect Serbs blockades, and lack of help from abroad all increase ethnic and and their monastic shrines...
...Their 4: 29 January 1993 Commonweal community is split between accepting the cabinet representa- clash with Serbia, being only too aware of its own military weaktion and boycotting participation in politics...
...But the end of the cold war change is the order of the day in world af- larity and political multipolarity...
...With regard to Macedonia, on the other hand, the European Only the Kosovan Albanian leaders' almost saintly forbear- Community (EC) could have exerted leverage...
...to protect its Muslims...
...can avert violence...
...Already, Serb in a cataclysm of carnage, ethnic cleansing, and mass rape...
...is giving way to heated accusations...
Vol. 120 • January 1993 • No. 2
