At London
AT LONDON THE major result of the Naval Conference so far may well be the fact that a good many persons in the United States were willing to get up at five o'clock in order to hear King George open...
...Suppose that she should wish to reverse these ratios, by shifting tonnage from cruisers to battle-ships...
...What flexibility of tonnage can do is to lessen the chance that six months after the conference has ended, or a year later, any nation will find the agreement too irksome to continue...
...They will have saved enough money to build cruisers, and then some...
...AT LONDON THE major result of the Naval Conference so far may well be the fact that a good many persons in the United States were willing to get up at five o'clock in order to hear King George open it...
...Well if the conference is to proceed in this mood, it may as well adjourn tomorrow...
...And certainly no suggestion which opens up such an opportunity is empty of value...
...Their contention is that a 25 percent leeway should be permitted to transfer tonnage from one class to another with the understanding that other nations be given due notice of the change...
...We must give it a chance to be the second of a series of short-term agreements, adapted to the times, which may establish irrefutably the principle that armaments can be controlled...
...We confess that this new problem of precedence does not seem fatefully important to us...
...When it seemed apparent that the problem of capital ships was throwing a smoke-screen over the rest of the conference, letters demanding that cruisers be dealt with first, and battle-ships later, left little space for the daily disputes on prohibition...
...What if some nation does come out of the conference with a slight theoretical disadvantage...
...Of course it is the only point raised as yet on which a really acrimonious letter can be written...
...We believe the agreements should be flexible enough to permit her to do this...
...In five years we can all learn whether or not we care to enter into another...
...The problems of defense change so rapidly these days, subject to every advance in airplane, ship and gun construction, that no one desires a more permanent settlement...
...Battle-ships, cruisers, destroyers, submarines-which shall sit first and which last, is no great matter...
...The open letter columns in diverse newspapers prove that such an interest happily does exist...
...Japan, for instance, is content at present with 60 percent of the United States's battle-ship strength, but she wants 70 percent of our cruiser strength...
...But suppose that two years from now she should change her mind...
...There is a comfortable looseness about such an arrangement which ought to commend itself to this conference especially...
...If they are not, she will come to the next general conference, in 1936, let us say, in a much less amiable frame of mind, suspicious of armament agreements, and perhaps ready to scrap them...
...What should be understood at this time, and what many of us seem to be failing to grasp at all, is the fact that in any concession to the hope of disarmament the United States has everything to gain and nothing to lose...
...Any agreement which may eventually be written as the result of the present meeting is not likely to be more than a five-year agreement...
...Another time might not be so advantageous...
...How much is risked by accepting it for the time being...
...They will sniff at us, who want cruiser competition stopped...
...What is most urgent, then, is that this five-year agreement shall be made successful...
...There would be less likelihood of complaint from any power that its hands have been tied, or that it has been kept within too narrow limits...
...This is the temper which leads to war, not to peace...
...Somehow or other the imagination of this conference has been excited by the opportunity of cutting down the big ships, and it might be poor sea strategy to call off the delegates while they are hot on this trail...
...The objection raised is that if the nations effect substantial economies in battleships, they will not be interested in limiting cruisers...
...But it would be especially hazardous, remembering America's deep affection for European royalty, to put this down as an indication of the public's interest in the events at London...
...Very probably she will get what she wants, if we interpret properly the attitude at London...
...The effect of an agreement on this would be all for the best, and we hope that the representatives of other powers will join the American delegation in supporting it...
...A longer period would be unwise...
...Furthermore the French thesis is an admirable complement to Secretary Stimson's opening statement that "If any one of us leaves this conference feeling that his country has been forced into an unfavorable agreement, our chief purpose will not have been obtained...
...That is why, as the Naval Conference proceeds, we are coming to attach more and more importance to the French argument against a rigid fixing of tonnage in the four main categories of fighting ships...
Vol. 11 • February 1930 • No. 14
