Hanging in the balance

...This is the minimum requirement that Congress is likely to impose again on FY 1990 aid...

...An interview I was conducting with Cristiani last fall at the party's campaign headquarters was interrupted repeatedly by D'Aubuisson, who obviously felt free to participate in the meeting even though he was not invited...

...Since Arena won, it is in the FMLN's interest to provoke repression from the right, in the hope that U.S...

...These promises will be held up to intense scrutiny in the U.S...

...Another conundrum in the human rights issue is that the military is organized to encourage classes of officers to stick together...

...If the March 19 elections were postponed until September, the FMLN said it would participate in the elections, which it had five times previously rejected as meaningless, and respect the results...

...While the current chief of the armed forces, Col...

...aid, it received far less attention in the U.S...

...because it was fought without U.S...

...and urged him to come out immediately with a strong statement on investigating and prosecuting the case...

...Congress has already begun to raise the specter of an aid cutoff...

...The sad reality is that the right wing could well oblige the left, perpetuating the cycle of death...

...Those who believe a cutoff in U.S...

...Thirty-three percent, the second most common response to this question, held the fatalistic view that "only God knows...

...But the Bush administration may be able to forestall this worse evil by making clear exactly what it expects of Arena if it wishes U.S...

...Whether such measures are eventually incorporated into law or removed during the legislative process depends heavily on the position adopted by the administration and what happens in El Salvador...

...The leaders, Guillermo Ungo and Ruben Zamora, wear bulletproof vests and are labeled terrorists by the right and the army, but their efforts are expanding the political space in the country...

...While wm m a recent article, "The Selling of Arena," in NACLA's Report on the Americas (March 1989) suggested that President-elect Alfredo Cristiani is a moderate facade for a murderous right-wing party, others believe that U.S...

...Powerful elements in the military and Arena continue to seek a military victory...

...It is possible that the U.S...

...That HV is the $64,000 question, but there are few mM indications of an answer at present...

...policy failures...

...Liberal forces in Congress are seeking stronger conditions, and U.S...

...For the past five years, Congress has required the administration to issue reports on progress that the Salvadoran government was making in efforts to reach a negotiated settlement, to end death squad activities, and to achieve other reforms...

...So long as the combatants feel the war can be won by force of arms, these respondents implied, the conflict is likely to continue...

...Shortly after Walker's arrival the massacre of ten peasants occurred in San Sebastian...

...Second, when asked if the war would end in 1989, 43.9 percent replied that it would not...

...officials and congressmen...

...it is now considering the FY 1990 foreign assistance request, which includes $386 million in economic and military aid for El Salvador...

...This may be the hard truth, yet many are deeply skeptical that those who advocate an eventual negotiated settlement in fact mean it...

...The resounding defeat of the PDC suggests that voters were less certain...

...Defining concrete progress should be rooted in Salvadoran reality: the will to negotiate an end to the war does not now exist, but the conviction of officers for human rights abuses is not an unrealistic expectation...

...Defense Minister Eugenio Vides Casanova acknowledged on national television that the deaths were "a serious violation of the normal procedures established for the Army" and promised the armed forces' cooperation in the legal proceedings...

...Hard-line guerrillas seem prepared to fight as long as necessary...

...It can be built upon, but not with the strong-arm tactics and rhetoric of some U.S...

...In their campaign, the Christian Democrats' (PDC) most common argument was that an Arena victory would lead to a deluge of violence...

...In January 1989, however, a surprising proposal was offered by the guerrilla Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN...

...cannot force an end to the war, it can hold Cristiani to his pledge to seek justice in this and other human rights cases...

...The recent executive-legislative agreement brokered by Secretary of State Jim Baker on the Nicaraguan contra issue has led many to hope for similar cooperation on El Salvador...

...Some U.S...

...The rule in El Salvador, for both sides, has been fight and talk...

...In March 1988, the right-wing National Republican Alliance party (Arena), with alleged links to the' Salvadoran death squads, won control of the country's legislative assembly...

...Although the U.S...

...While a remarkable bipartisan consensus has endured for eight years in support of helping El Salvador's search for peace, there are indications that it is eroding amid fears of violence returning to the early 1980s' levels, on one hand, and overly optimistic hopes that a negotiated settlement can be reached on the other...

...If prosecuted, the case could lead to the first convic-tion.of a Salvadoran officer...

...obviously should not participate...

...The proposed bill provides an opportunity for Congress to halt the disbursement of at least half the military aid after March 31, 1990 if it concludes that the above objectives have not been adequately pursued...

...This sentiment is probably sufficient leverage to halt, or possibly even prevent, a drastic deterioration in the situation...

...aid as Guatemala did in the 1970s...

...Walker warned Cristiani that this case would become an issue in the U.S...

...The possibilities range from giving Congress an opportunity to halt aid at a future date (such as the Hatfield-Harkin bill described above), requiring presidential certification of progress on the areas of concern (as opposed to nonbinding reports), reducing the amount of aid (the deficit-cutting legislation has pared foreign aid in recent years), or tying portions to progress on specific cases (small amounts have been sequestered previously, pending prosecutions for the murder of U.S...

...Although Duarte's administration was plagued by charges of corruption and economic mismanagement, he had been the centerpiece of the U.S.-supported democratization in that poor, embattled country...

...Surprisingly, however, the Catholic church-sponsored poll cited above reveals that more respondents (22.5 percent) believed that the FMLN violated human rights than the army (10.8 percent...

...Last year the Catholic church, which has played a major role in the so-far unsuccessful attempts at government-guerrilla dialogue, presided over a "national debate" whose objective was to seek out and define the public will...

...While some dismissed them as brilliant tsfjpcal moves to throw the electoral process into chaos, the FMtN had nonetheless gone on record with their proposals and even offered to talk after the election...

...Thus, the Salvadoran elections have galvanized the United States, with a new administration of its own, to reexamine its policy...

...While the deep hatred that has developed in Salvadoran society between various groups and ideologies makes U.S...

...could drive Arena and military extremists to opt for a Guatemala-style war of indiscriminate brutality, rejecting U.S...

...officials concur, is that the guerrillas must be further weakened before a negotiated settlement is possible...

...and Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) have introduced a bill intended to encourage the Salvadoran government "(1) to achieve a peaceful settlement in accordance with the Esquipulas II accords of August 7. 1987, and (2) to reduce death squad activities and increase respect for the rule of law...

...The prospects are that strong restrictions on military aid will come out of the congressional committees...

...If Congress is persuaded that the administration will not actively pursue the human rights and negotiations agenda with the Salvadoran government, it is likely to codify this agenda in legislation...

...And the actual decision to withhold aid will not be made until the new government has been in power for ten months...

...Yet the sad fact is that things in El Salvador could get much worse...

...To understand what the realistic prospects for progress are, and what the United States can and cannot do, the norteamerkanos must take off their rose-colored glasses and see what the country is actually like...

...This signaled the discrediting of the Christian Democratic government led by Jose Napoleon Duarte, and foreshadowed the Christian Democrats' loss of the presidency to Arena in elections this past March...

...The primary reason cited by Sal-vadorans for the failure of dialogue thus far was "ambition to power...

...Rene Emilio Ponce, has advocated and executed a policy of "winning hearts and minds" of Salvadoran peasants, he is also a member of the "tandona," the military class of 1966 which harbors some of the most notorious violators of human rights...

...The visit of Vice President Dan Quayle to El Salvador in February was an early hopeful sign of administration policy: he warned the military and the right that the Bush administration was going to scrutinize events carefully for any sign of backsliding on rights...

...The severest critics, including many Democrats in Congress, believe that massive U.S...

...Intimidation is still prevalent, practiced by both sides...

...That is clearly ample time for concrete progress to be made...

...Perhaps the most significant change in El Salvador, after the fact of a series of fairly clean elections, was the return of some of the guerrillas' civilian allies to participate in the political process...

...As part of this project, a nationwide poll was conducted in the summer of 1988 to determine Salvadoran sentiment across the socioeconomic spectrum...

...If the Bush administration has one lesson to learn from the Reagan experience, it is not to call El Salvador a success story...

...Certainly, after nine years of war, the Salvadoran army appears no closer to victory...

...First, 42.5 percent of the respondents, a plurality, said that negotiation is the best way to end the war...

...Also, since his arrival last summer in San Salvador, Ambassador William Walker, a career Foreign Service Officer, has been sending a similar message of what the U.S...

...On the other hand, it is simply wishful thinking toexpect that Roberto D'Aubuisson will beeliminated from the power structure of Arena, much less brought to trial for his alleged role in the 1980 murder of Archbishop Oscar Romero...

...Cristiani has pledged to continue a dialogue with the guerrillas-suggesting that it could be resumed even before he takes office-and has committed himself to pursuing justice in human rights cases...

...If they succeed in rebuilding their base, this left-democratic alternative could be a crucial step in eventually ending the war...

...Though it is only one of numerous cases, many agree that a conviction could have a strong deterrent effect on future abuses...

...Even many who support present U.S...

...power...

...They want to end the aid as a way of forcing the Salvadoran government to negotiate a settlement with the guerrillas...

...The nine-year-old civil war has intensified rather than abated since the Central American peace plan was signed in August 1987...

...The House is working on similar language with the expectation that this will facilitate these conditions' eventual incorporation into law...

...Arena's victory was by most accounts a fair one, yet fears that the party will prove an extremist government have compounded concern over the lack of progress achieved after nine years and $3.6 billion in U.S...

...officials and others, the Salvadoran right does not seem able to step back and see that the abuses ultimately alienate more Salvadorans than they dissuade from collaborating with the FMLN...

...military aid merely bolsters the rightists and prolongs the war...

...VHV ill Salvador descend further into vioBBV lence under an Arena government...

...A similar moderate proportion believed that freedom of expression, political opening, and popular participation had improved in the same period...

...Thus, although not a resounding endorsement of the political changes achieved in the recent past, a majority of Salvadorans clearly believe that the political climate is better or at least not worse...

...pressure and the power of the office that Cristiani inherits can hold the extremists in check...

...Two responses stand out...

...Does Arena's victory presage the end of democracy for El Salvador...

...That is not likely to change in the near term...

...Despite the efforts of some U.S...

...officials may be tacitly embracing this view, or at least not ruling it out...

...The Salvadoran army's view, in which many U.S...

...if Arena has several months in office to demonstrate its intentions, the Congress will have some basis for judging whether this conditionally is required...

...Finding victory elusive, the U.S...

...The massacre often peasants in the jurisdiction of San Sebastian in September 1988 yielded forensic evidence strongly suggesting that soldiers were responsible...

...aid to continue...

...Still, the question bears asking: just how much change can U.S...

...aspirations to force a negotiated settlement seem unrealistic, limited progress has been achieved to date...

...citizens...

...At the same time the FMLN invigorated the negotiating track by airing these proposals, however, it continued military actions, including bombing, economic and transport sabotage, and death threats against mayors and municipal councils...

...In discussions of human rights, however, the reason behind increasing or declining abuses is often overlooked: when the army feels the guerrillas are making significant inroads, the military and paramilitary forces begin to get nervous and justify the abuses as necessary to contain the subversion...

...If the violence begins to spin out of control, support in Congress for stronger restrictions on aid will grow...

...The poll noted, however, that between one-fifth and one-third of the poorer sectors chose not to answer the question about who violates human rights more...

...Although the proposal and subsequent conditions were ultimately rejected by the army, the political parties, and the government, and the March 19 election took place as scheduled, the FMLN offers were significant departures from the past...

...policy believe its design and execution have not been perfect...

...The timing will be important...

...No one, not even Cristiani, pretends that Arena's founder and reputed death squad leader Roberto D' Aubuisson does not have a say in the party and thus influence over the policies it will execute in office...

...This would test the "demonstration effect" theory that successful prosecution of one case could deter further abuses...

...aid does provide leverage, but compelling change in a society with such massive, structural problems as El Salvador's is a monumental task...

...The second largest category (17.7 percent) held both sides equally responsible...

...A power struggle is certain, but the outcome is not...

...administration and the Salvadoran military seem prepared to fight an endless war...

...This fact is unpalatable to many in the U.S., where an abiding faith reigns in our ability to resolve all problems given sufficient will and money...

...aid achieve...

...concern over Arena is strengthening their hand...

...Other critics support continued aid but want it to be used more forcefully as leverage to bring about a negotiated peace soon, and to compel more reforms than have yet been achieved...

...aid would force the military to reach a negotiated settlement do not consider the Guatemala case to be relevant...

...Although this view may seem to sacrifice justice to a less noble realism, it could yield continuing gains for a policy that has disappointed many because it promised more than it could deliver...

...The U.S...

...Senators Mark Hatfield (R-Oreg...

...Although a similar measure failed to pass the Senate Appropriations Committee last year, fears of Arena and a deteriorating situation in El Salvador in the next few months could muster the support needed for this bill to pass...

...The military also appears unable to prevent its members from committing human rights abuses (though these have declined from the levels of the early 1980s...

...More died in Guatemala's war, which its right claims to have won...

...The answer is somewhat more than has been achieved, yet the central reason for the continuing war has more to do with the nature of Sal vadoran society than with U.S...

...Most important to the aid debate is what happens in El Salvador in the coming months...

...This camaraderie frustrates efforts to bring guilty officers to trial...

...Such a prognosis is small comfort to those who seek a radical change in El Salvador, but these are the apparent limits of U.S...

...The substantial decline in the guerrillas' ranks has more to do with the limited improvement in the political climate than with the battlefield scorecard...

...There is little evidence to support such a belief at this time: the majority of Salvadoran voters wanted to give Arena a chance, and the U.S...

...Arena may choose this path, and if so the U.S...

...is bound to respect the election results...

...The majority has adopted a wait-and-see attitude, which could shift against aid very quickly...

...These have only fueled a growing anti-Americanism which is potentially quite counterproductive...

...would expect from a conservative government there...

...aid will be cut off by Congress...

...Such an upswing has been clearly visible in the past year, and promises to continue so long as the guerrillas are intensifying their actions...

...Nonetheless, 38.4 percent of respondents believed that respect for human rights had improved in the last two years, while 27.8 percent said it was the same...

...Some believe that the Arena victory and the ongoing war clearly demonstrate the failure of former President Reagan's policy toward El Salvador...