Our pal Pol Pot?:

...This support, however, costs the Soviets dearly: an estimated $1-2 billion annually...

...In the opinion of most observers, any Cambodia settlement should view with suspicion the protestations of Pol Pot that his role in a future Cambodia will be a useful and peaceful one...

...Should the Sihanouk alliance and particularly the Khmer Rouge show signs of military victory the Vietnamese would surely be asked and being asked would return to Cambodia...

...were to change its position, China might be persuaded to withdraw its support for the Khmer Rouge in return for a restoration of pre-Tiananmen Square relations with the U.S...

...A peacekeeping force under either UN or ASEAN auspices could play an important role in suppressing Khmer Rouge ambitions...

...The U.S...

...14) has suggested that Hun Sen's strategy may be to let the rebels take territory before launching a counteroffensive...

...Neither Hanoi nor the present government and people of Cambodia is prepared to accept any arrangement that legitimizes Pol Pot's forces in any way...

...and a strong contingent from the ASEAN nations as the party with the greatest interest in seeing the Cambodian conflict settled...

...recent events and announcements could have hastened the pace of progress toward a resolution of Cambodia's problems...

...The events that followed Pol Pot's accession are well known to those familiar with Southeast Asia...

...The U.S...

...The current U.S...

...The alliance of convenience forged among the latter three has led many Cambodians to doubt Son Sann's and Sihanouk's independence of Pol Pot...

...On the one hand, China may be reluctant at this time to turn against those of its allies, like Pol Pot, that remain supportive...

...Finally, powerful incentives for continued regional peace among all the possible participants to a settlement are needed...

...And the U.S...

...This policy had several roots including the opportunity to gain greater influence in Southeast Asia at U.S...

...and ASEAN chose instead to support two factions, one headed by Prince Sihanouk, the other by his former prime minister, Son Sann...

...The United States and its ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) allies, angry with Hanoi's Soviet-supported expansionism in the region, rejected both the Heng Samrin government and Hanoi's continued presence in Cambodia...

...Although Hanoi desperately needs and wants bilateral and multilateral aid from the West, they would probably sacrifice such aid if the price were a Cambodia under Khmer Rouge control...

...policy...

...The failure of the Cambodian factions to reach agreement on whether the Khmer Rouge should participate in a future Cambodian government, however, has derailed settlement efforts...

...position is a prescription for ongoing violence and perhaps even a return of the Vietnamese forces...

...However, the recent student uprisings in China and the Chinese government's reaction to those events have made China's current directions difficult to assess...

...Given such revisions, all of the nations of the region would stand to gain from this project through both direct economic benefits and the integration and political stability that presumably would follow...

...After installing the friendly Heng Samrin government, Hanoi's large army remained behind to shore up this regime in its early years and insure that the defeated but still strong Pol Pot forces would not return...

...Pol Pot's forces are known to be building stocks of military material and with the Vietnamese gone, his army may be the strongest force in Cambodia...

...With these pieces in place, other actors have been reconsidering their positions...

...It is important to note that the supporters of the Sihanouk coalition also perceive the necessity of a peacekeeping force to keep the Khmer Rouge at bay...

...and ASEAN found themselves in the peculiar position of supporting diplomatically and with military aid an alliance dominated by Pol Pot's vicious killers...

...did bomb Cambodia to block the North Vietnamese use of the Ho Chi Minh Trail...

...Without a powerful incentive like the Mekong River Project, any solution to the Cambodian problem would be only partially successful...

...These groups had emerged in opposition to Hanoi's military presence and to its client regime...

...First, new leadership in Hanoi, desirous of promoting better relations with the West in hope of speeding economic growth, indicated a willingness to reach a political solution in Cambodia...

...BRAIN WHITMORE is a doctoral candidate at the University of South Carolina...

...If American policy changes and is successful in persuading Sihanouk to part company with the Khmer Rouge, then a way must be found to guarantee the new Cambodian government against a Pol Pot effort to regain power...

...The Vietnamese, responding to Cambodian border meddling and perhaps their own hegemonic fantasies, invaded Cambodia in 1979 and overthrew the Pol Pot regime...

...This despite the prince's commitment to giving the hated Khmer Rouge a role in Cambodia's future...

...Ideally, this force should have Chinese troops to insure that the Chinese withdraw support from Pol Pot...

...Two occurrences contributed much to breaking this stalemate...

...One path to furthering political stability in the region is to provide a scheme for greater economic growth and integration in mainland Southeast Asia...

...Tommy T.B...

...The Soviet Union followed up its wartime support for Hanoi with increased aid after the unification of Vietnam in 1975...

...thus bears some responsibility for the horrors of the "Killing Fields" which were a result of the Khmer Rouge's succession to power in the wake of South Vietnam's demise...

...Another Chinese goal has been the prevention of Vietnamese expansion into Southeast Asia...

...expense, the desire to frustrate China's goal of dominating the region, and most important the need to respond to the deterioration of Sino-Vietnamese relations and the West's isolation of Vietnam...

...Until recently all these positions remained stubbornly resistant to change...

...The first of these is that the U.S., though currently reconsidering its position, remains committed to removing the Heng Samrin government and replacing it with one headed by Prince Sihanouk...

...When these two factions entered into an alliance of convenience with Pol Pot, the U.S...

...JUSTIN J. GREEN is a professor of political science at Villanova University, author of a monograph on political stability in the Philippines, and editor of a book about Asian women...

...The Vietnamese appear to have withdrawn all of their forces and, more importantly, the Chinese have suggested that they might, under unspecified conditions, discontinue their support of Pol Pot...

...Even the ASEAN nations' solid support for the Sihanouk-Son Sann coalition appears to be falling apart...

...On the other hand, if the U.S...

...Recently Congress has grown uneasy with both these commitments and there appears to be growing pressure on Secretary of State Baker to redirect U.S...

...the goal of increased stability for mainland Southeast Asia continues to elude all the interested parties...

...The Economist (Oct...

...Most recently he argued that the now blunted offensive carried on by the resistance coalition along the Cambodian border might lead to a sudden collapse of the Cambodian government, "allowing the Khmer Rouge to take power...

...Despite these generally hopeful signs, several important pieces of a Cambodian settlement are missing...

...The Chinese in particular need a self-interest carrot to encourage them to stop punishing Hanoi...

...Lon Nol regime which replaced Sihanouk surely had something to do with the growth of the Pol Pot-led Khmer Rouge...

...A way to accomplish this is to resurrect the long-dormant Mekong River Project first proposed by the United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) in 1957...

...The Soviets followed up this change of position with successful efforts to encourage the early departure of the Vietnamese from Cambodia...

...Lee Kuan Yew recently criticized the Vietnamese for "walking away from Cambodia while refusing to allow an international peacekeeping force to be put in place there...

...to remain constant in its support of Sihanouk...

...The Chinese have sought to punish Hanoi for China's defeat at the hands of the Vietnamese army during the nasty border war of 1979...

...A Vietnamese return would provide the excuse the U.S...

...and its ASEAN allies...

...Contrary to the recent statements of Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore and his ambassador to the U.S., Mr...

...Second, the Soviets under Gorbachev articulated a desire to cut back their support for Vietnam in order to improve their relations with China and the U.S...

...In return for this support, the Soviets were granted access to the Cam Ranh Bay naval base and the Da Nang airfield...

...Indian forces to balance the Chinese...

...Few observers feel, however, that the current offensive is that threatening...

...Koh, the government of Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen would be the likely winner in any election including Son Sann, the Sihanouk factions, and the Khmer Rouge despite the continuing popularity of Sihanouk...

...Highlighting this ASEAN split is Lee Kuan Yew's continuing effort to persuade the U.S...

...To achieve these aims China supported the retreating but still active Pol Pot forces with heavy injections of military equipment and supplies...

...That project envisioned using the Mekong River for energy and economic development in the region...

...needs to go on punishing Hanoi...

...Although Cambodian economic recovery has been slow and the Heng Samrin regime rather inefficient, nevertheless the government and its Vietnamese supporters became legitimate to its citizenry if not for superlative accomplishments, then for their ability to keep the much feared Pol Pot at arm's length...

...If the project were to be implemented at the present time, it would need to be revised, giving more attention to greater direct benefits for the Chinese and Vietnamese and taking into account environmental concerns...

...However, any short-range psychological satisfaction gained by such a response must be measured against the loss of the long-range stability that would emerge in time from an American policy which urged Sihanouk to make an agreement with Hun Sen that excluded the Khmer Rouge...

...Although the United States had no direct role in Prince Sihanouk's fall in 1970, its strong support for the antineu-tral, pro-U.S...

...Although Thailand's Prime Minister Chatichai Choonhaven has publicly continued Thailand's opposition to the present Cambodian government, he has met privately with Hun Sen...