The doubting elites
Hehir, J. Bryan
WORLD WATCH J. Bryan Hehir THE DOUBTING ELITES ARMS CONTROL AFTER THE TREATY Jimmy Carter began his final year in the presidency by withdrawing from Senate consideration the SALT II arms control...
...Other voices in Mr...
...In the end, the Soviets, traditionally suspicious of intrusive verification measures, were proposing measures beyond those acceptable to NATO...
...however modest the terms of the treaty, the ultimate judgment of the INF agreement will hinge on whether an improved atmosphere leads to results in the larger issues of the superpower competition, nuclear and non-nuclear...
...The European concerns raised by the INF Treaty should not block ratification...
...Beyond the specific results of the arms reduction and restoration of the arm's control process, the treaty has provided the superpowers with the opportunity to reaffirm a common interest in containing the nuclear threat, and it opens the way for further negotiations on nuclear issues and other topics where there is less perceived common interest...
...An important element of the debate will be the assertion (for which some evidence exists) that some of the European governments share the doubts of their elites, but that they are caught between the leader of the alliance and their publics...
...Henry Kissinger in Newsweek (December 21) plays out the European objections to the point of opposing the treaty, then draws back, accepting the treaty as a mistaken initiative which now must be supported to avoid greater damage...
...The INF Treaty has both a strategic and a political dimension...
...SALT II was doomed before Carter withdrew it...
...The INF Treaty will be debated nationally and trans-nationally within the NATO alliance (and with the French...
...In the United States one can find three responses to the European concerns...
...The issues involve the past-the reversal on INF after the European governments had agreed to deployment in the face of widespread opposition - and the future - whether the stability of deterrence will be endangered and whether the Gorbachev initiatives should be engaged or parried...
...It will show the governments on one side, supported by a solid public constituency, aligned against an articulate segment of the political-strategic elites...
...Less technically, these are missiles with a range between 300 and 3000 miles...
...The treaty had its origins in President Reagan's 1982 proposal to the Soviet Union to reduce theater nuclear weapons to zero...
...Some critics of the treaty acknowledge its potential as a step toward other goals, but find the treaty itself a mistake...
...In the treaty the U-nited States and the Soviet Union have committed themselves to destroy two "classes" of weapons: "long-range" and "short-range" intermediate nuclear forces...
...Gorbachev rightly move toward reductions in strategic offensive forces...
...The proposal moved through several stages of negotiation, climaxing in the document signed in Washington in December...
...the INF Treaty is virtually assured of passage, in great part because Mr...
...The political dimensions of the INF treaty go beyond the specific terms of the agreement...
...Stanley Hoffmann in The New York Review of Books (January 21) is sympathetic to European concerns, but effectively responds to them and supports the treaty...
...Reagan and Mr...
...In superpower relations, atmosphere counts...
...Amending a treaty seems to be a cumbersome manner of achieving these objectives, but the substantive need to address conceptually and organizationally the relationship of nuclear and conventional arms control is the major legacy of the INF Treaty...
...The configuration of the domestic debate, in the United States and in Europe, promises to be similar...
...For the superpowers, the INF treaty signals primarily a change in the atmosphere of their relationship...
...Reagan's normal constituency of supporters seem prepared to use the European arguments to oppose the treaty...
...Ronald Reagan begins his final year as president by presenting the U.S...
...What follows is an effort designed to diagram the debate...
...Senate with an arms control treaty, after spending his political life deriding the arms control process...
...There will be efforts to amend the INF Treaty...
...Their arguments are related to the impact of the treaty on the politics of NATO and U.S.- European relations...
...The alliance policy debate is the link with domestic politics...
...Precisely because the INF is sure to pass, the interesting and important debate will be the issues surrounding the treaty and beyond it...
...In strictly substantive terms the treaty affects less than 5 percent of the striking power of the superpower arsenals...
...Others will hope to obtain a commitment by the superpowers to join conventional and nuclear negotiations...
...The symbolic separation of these two negotiations in two countries in the last several years (nuclear in Geneva and conventional in Vienna) cannot be sustained...
...The weapons which threaten each of the superpowers with homeland devastation remain, on the whole, untouched by this agreement...
...There will be an attempt by some to link theater and strategic weapons...
...But the issues which are the basis of those concerns require progress on the conventional balance in Europe even as Mr...
...Both supporters and opponents of the INF Treaty are looking beyond it to the next negotiations, the attempt to cut strategic offense weapons by 50 percent and the question of how to proceed with conventional arms control in light of the terms of the INF...
...dismantling of Per-shing II and ground-launched cruise missiles which had been deployed in Europe after an intense political struggle in several NATO countries...
...The other noteworthy feature in the treaty is the inclusion of verification procedures providing for much more extensive inspection than any previous arms control treaty...
...WORLD WATCH J. Bryan Hehir THE DOUBTING ELITES ARMS CONTROL AFTER THE TREATY Jimmy Carter began his final year in the presidency by withdrawing from Senate consideration the SALT II arms control treaty, for which he had worked throughout his term...
...There are three levels of the political question: superpower relations, alliance policy, and domestic politics...
...Reagan supports it...
...Neither of these points, however, is' made to denigrate the achievement of the INF Treaty...
...The most striking arms control result of the treaty is the Soviet dismantling of its SS-20 missiles and the U.S...
...The strategic or military meaning of the treaty is surprisingly simple...
...The content of the INF debate will focus on linkage, a term which proved fatal for SALT II but should function differently for this treaty...
Vol. 115 • January 1988 • No. 2
