Politics of the probable

...Fernandez attacks Perez for his exaggerated activism, but has yet to announce what course he would follow on matters of national concern, such as the foreign debt...

...Certainly governments plagued by internal corruption are not in a good position to play an international leadership role...

...Perez's adversaries at home scoffed at the NWEO and criticized him for overestimating the limited influence a small, third-world country like Venezuela could have...

...The possibility that corruption coupled with international drug smuggling will lead to the "Colombianization" of Venezuela is frequently raised...

...For example, he will not go as far as Peru's Alan Garcia in reducing to a bare minimum repayments of foreign loans...

...Many ex-Venezuelan guerrillas from the 1960s (including a former presidential candidate) are backing Perez...

...Perez, in his call for a New World Economic Order (NWEO), was also able to rely on the sympathetic ear of President Jimmy Carter...

...REPORT FROM VENEZUELA POLITICS OF THE PROBABLE NO SAVIOR IN SIGHT Venezuela's charismatic ex-president, Carlos Andres Perez, who is currently leading the polls for the presidential elections to be held in December, has raised expectations across the political spectrum...

...Perez is also unlikely to follow a confrontational course with the U.S., as his leftist supporters favor...

...Are any of these scenarios real possibilities...

...For some, Perez, as a statesman and a prominent third-world spokesman, will be able to draw the United States into a new relationship with Latin America based on mutual respect and in keeping with the tradition of the New Deal and the New Frontier...

...influence and establish firmer political and commercial ties with Europe, especially Spain, France, and Germany, where ruling and former ruling parties belong to the SI...

...AH three views of Perez's leadership potential contain elements of truth, while reflecting contradictions of his foreign-policy positions...

...Perez's opponents have cleverly exploited the issue of corruption and abuse of government authority in the hope of wresting votes from his party, the ruling Democratic Action party...

...When Perez was president in the midst of the energy crisis of the 1970s, Venezuela's bargaining position was enhanced by the insistence of some OPEC countries that oil be used as a "political arm" to force concessions from the developed nations...

...Although that fear is exaggerated, the fact that rampant corruption in Venezuela has eroded public confidence in democratic government will leave it vulnerable to coup attempts...

...While Perez's call for a NWEO certainly will not lead to a new "Marshall Plan" for underdeveloped nations, it may be effective in helping to unite third-world countries behind a multilateral approach to foreign debt...

...It is unlikely that, at the helm of a more economically vulnerable Venezuela, Perez will now be able to catapult his nation onto the world stage and reactivate interest in the NWEO...

...The government's inability to control the booming cocaine trade from neighboring Colombia is also a major problem...

...But Perez was ultimately unable to parlay his NWEO rhetoric into concrete programs in favor of the third world...

...Even Fidel Castro allegedly has stated that "his vote" will go to Perez...

...For many Europeans, Perez-a prominent member of the Socialist International (SI)-will move Venezuela away from U.S...

...For others, Perez's "anti-imperialist" credentials were proven when as president he provided Sandinista insurgents with massive aid which was instrumental in their triumph in 1979...

...Furthermore, this argument goes, Perez's prestige in Latin America will serve to effect a continental realignment in favor of Europe...

...Those who see Perez as a third-world savior would do well to examine his domestic policies in order to place his international initiatives in proper perspective...

...In fact, it is doubtful that Perez, if re-elected, will be able to fulfill the heightened expectations his most fervent supporters have for a realignment of Venezuela's foreign policy...

...Nor is he likely to support a third-world debt moratorium...

...Perez has come to the defense of fellow party leaders accused of wrongdoing and has failed to speak out vigorously for impartial investigations...

...His own record is tainted by a scandal in which he was absolved by only one vote in the national congress...

...Perez's lead at the polls is as much a commentary on the ineffectiveness of his opponents as it is on his own charisma...

...Over the last two years, the government has been racked by a series of scandals involving the attorney general, the ministry of defense, a secret parapolice force, and the state-run aluminum industry...

...Public opinion surveys show him with a ten-point advantage over his nearest rival of the conservative COPEI party, Eduar-do Fernandez, who has failed to come up with concrete alternatives to the policies advocated by Perez...

...In negotiating with the U.S., Perez will be too absorbed in opposing restrictions on Venezuelan oil and other exports to win over the State Department to novel and costly schemes of international cooperation...

...STEVE ELLNER Steve Ellner's articles on Latin American politics nave appeared in Commonweal, The Progressive, the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and in numerous professional journals...

...Despite his flair for the dramatic, Perez is essentially a pragmatist who avoids showdowns whenever possible...

...At the other extreme, the splintered Venezuelan left has forfeited potential support by putting up several candidates just as it did in previous presidential contests when its combined vote was limited to about 8 percent...

...He is the author of Venezuela's Movimiento al Socialismo: From Guerrilla Defeat to Innovative Politics (Duke University...

...Latin American governments are increasingly receptive to this strategy, less from a genuine commitment to third-world solidarity than from the realization that their loans are simply unpayable, and that commercial banks, in any case, are not about to extend new credits...