Editorials
EDITORIAL The nonoffensive D word War, according to Clausewitz, "is a constant case of reciprocal action, the effects of which are mutual." What is true of war is true of preparations for war....
...the mutual inspection and verification of compliance...
...And, perhaps most remarkable, West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, in his October visit to Moscow, announced that the aim of his visit was "to secure a stable balance of power at a lower level [of armaments], and to create a situation in Europe in which neither side has the capability for launching [a] surprise attack [or] for initiating large-scale offensive action...
...On this side of the Atlantic, inventiveness on such matters has produced few high-level proponents...
...Right now, for example, more than 5 million Warsaw Pact and 5.5 million NATO troops are under arms...
...That course would be, in fact, a prescription for futility: every increase in offensive capability only ups the ante to which an adversary feels duty bound to respond and increases the financial burden on both...
...Finally, in order to succeed, a defensive doctrine must not be hastily conceived...
...Though the proposals vary, there are some common elements: a disengagement zone along-the NATO-Warsaw Pact front...
...The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (September 1988), recently examined a number of such defensive plans and their components...
...a change in present attack and counterattack strategies that call for deep penetration into an opponent's territory...
...Even a non-nuclear World War III in Europe would create a vast graveyard, so that some NATO thinkers prefer to keep war less "thinkable" by continuing to rely on the still greater horror presented by the prospect of using planet-threatening nuclear warfare...
...Those taking a lead in this area realize that a shift to a more defensive posture will have to be a gradual one, and must depend on agreements that maintain stability as present forces are being reduced...
...This represents a useful precedent...
...the Stockholm Conference on Confidence-and Security-Building Measures, attended by both NATO and the Warsaw Pact members, agreed to reciprocal observations of military exercises and three annual on-site "challenge" inspections of suspicious military activities...
...Yes, disputes will always be with us...
...In 1987, otherwise most notable for the signing of the INF Treaty, Mikhail Gorbachev, recognizing a persistent concern of NATO countries, spoke of the military asymmetries of NATO and Warsaw Pact forces...
...The change in relations between the two Germanies, Secretary General Gorbachev's focus on the Soviet Union's internal economic problems, new trade and financial relationships between Western and Eastern blocs-these and other factors have created an atmosphere that encourages further departures from congealed Cold War attitudes...
...Robert Neild and Andres Boserup have defined the concept succinctly:' 'A defensive or nonoffensive force posture is designed to fight in a defensive mode, to take full advantage of the possibilities offered by that mode of fighting, and to have a minimum offensive capability" {World Policy Journal, Fail 1987...
...What is crucial for a nonoffensive defense is the configuration, not only of specific weapons but also of the tactics, placement, training, force sizes, and doctrines that dictate their use...
...Or can this excessive spending be reduced without diminishing each side's sense of security...
...And finally, neither had the fiscal rectitude to note, as the Congressional Budget Office did this fall, that the weapons already planned for the next five years will cost $175 billion: a 4 percent annual rise in military spending above inflation-an increase the new president will be unable to finance...
...the eventual preponderance on both sides of defensive rather than offensive capabilities...
...Despite these challenges, movement does seem to be taking place in the imagination of certain military and political leaders...
...The success of the INF Treaty, despite its inherent limitations, demonstrated the possibility of eliminating entire classes of weapons...
...Neither acknowledged the large-scale deadliness of some new "conventional" weapons (for example, incendiary aerial mists that when ignited can exhaust the atmosphere over wide areas, killing by asphyxiation those it does not destroy with blast and fire...
...In 1986, the Warsaw Pact countries issued the "Budapest Appeal," a comprehensive new proposal on conventional force reductions...
...Putting such strategies in place would not rest on mutual trust at the outset, but on known, observable military capabilities...
...proposed that NATO renounce its policy on the first use of nuclear weapons in exchange for Warsaw Pact willingness to disperse its tank formations and move them away from the central front (see, F.A.S...
...Initially, new defensive systems would be expensive to develop, would need to be proven, and would require a wide-ranging political consensus for their implementation...
...The prospects are mixed...
...New Conventional Stability Talks are scheduled later this year involving all sixteen NATO and seven Warsaw Pact members...
...Neither pointed out the destabilizing effect of developing new, deep-strike weaponry (attack helicopters, highly accurate ground-launched missiles, or ground attack aircraft using "stealth" technologies...
...The Warsaw Pact countries (with a combined GNP of $3.3 trillion) spend an estimated $344 billion a year on defense, while NATO (combined GNP of $9 trillion) spends an estimated $500 billion...
...Obviously, this movement is not taking place in a political or economic vacuum...
...This requires greatly diminishing offensive strike capability while enhancing defensive abilities...
...In the late, lamentable presidential campaign, both candidates, while praising the INF Treaty and anticipating further reduction of nuclear weapons, spoke of enhancing conventional arms...
...eventually, however, the shift could relax specifically war-related tensions between the two sides and lead to the evolution of new ways of resolving conflict...
...Nonoffensive defense is meant to take account of such fears...
...Annual worldwide defense spending is $1 trillion, a vast sum that is otherwise unavailable for productive purposes...
...Initially, the reluctance of some in the West to endorse the INF Treaty was largely caused by the absence of movement on conventional weapons...
...Public Interest Report, February 1988...
...But in a world fast becoming smaller and more interconnected, settling them by the traditional methods and formulas has become nearly suicidal in practice and will bankrupt us all in the preparation...
...a reduction in the number of tanks and armored transport vehicles...
...A recent instance is President Reagan's SDI...
...Does this scenario condemn us to ever increasing levels of military spending...
...That is what raises questions about the prudence, if not the sanity, of the planning that is now in place...
...Since World War II, every new strategy or weapon developed by one of the superpowers and its allies has been countered with offsetting measures by their opposite...
...Nonoffensive or nonprovocative defense does not refer only to particular "defensive" weapons or even groups of such weapons...
...Most weapons in themselves can be used for either offensive or defensive purposes...
...The two blocs have been discussing "Mutual and Balanced Force Reductions" in Vienna for the past fifteen years, with almost nothing to show for it...
...They recognize that a further conventional arms buildup could decrease stability while inhibiting the economic growth they desire...
...here a defensive weapons system in the service of offensive weapons threatens to become a further destabilizing and provocative weapons system...
...For example, one issue for NATO is whether Bonn would be willing to place a series of defensive barriers along its border with East Germany, with which it eventually hopes to be reunited...
...the emplacement of defense barriers and electronic sensors to detect movements of intruders...
...And that is why there is increased talk on both sides about "nonoffensive defense...
...Nonoffensive defense seeks to reduce systematically and reciprocally the threat of being attacked by lowering the probable payoff for an assault attack, while reducing the offensive threat to an adversary...
...At the same time, Senator Sam Nunn (D-Ga...
...Clausewitz can be turned upside down-at least as an imaginative exercise...
...Earlier this year, Marshal Sergei Akhromeyev, Soviet Chief of Staff, called for a "nonoffensive" (or "nonprovocative") defense...
...Stability in Europe will not be increased if cuts in intermediate-range nuclear forces are offset by beefed-up, deep-strike conventional attack forces...
...Secretary of Defense Frank Carlucci has voiced interest but expressed disappointment that, in his view, little more than rhetoric has so far emerged...
...He called for "eliminating any elements of inequality...through a reduction on the part of those who are ahead...
...It also established mutually-agreed-on verification procedures for monitoring compliance...
...a moving back of major ammunition and fuel depots...
...On the other hand, over the past three years new suggestions on both security and spending have come from unexpected sources...
...Imagining a nonoffensive defense is an important option in rethinking how best to achieve the security that all nations need...
...If he is right that war is a cause of constant reciprocal action, then building up measures of trust ought to reduce the incentives to war, and over the long term lead to a more peaceful world...
Vol. 115 • November 1988 • No. 20
