Bear in a briarpatch
Perkovich, George
THE AFGHANISTAN WAR BEAR IN A BRIARPATCH PROSPECTS FOR A SOVIET PULLOUT fghanistan is high on President Reagan's agenda for this month's summit with Mikhail Gorbachev. The president is sure to...
...One of these factions reportedly supplied Iran with the Stinger missiles it used against American forces in the Persian Gulf this October...
...Rus726: Commonweal sian leaders traditionally do not admit setbacks, especially in foreign and military policy...
...The seven parties' unwillingness to pursue a political settlement has given the Soviets and the Afghan Communists an excuse for their own reluctance to compromise...
...The administration capitalizes on the public relations windfall the Soviet war brings...
...The other three principal groups are somewhat less radical and would in theory tolerate a mixed monarchist government of the sort that ruled prior to 1978...
...Specialists on Afghanistan say the Soviets cannot merely pull out...
...The best organized and funded resistance parties are based in Pakistan...
...and Pakistan share some of the burden for ending the war: it is they who have some chance of lining up the resistance behind a settlement...
...Second, Gorbachev can trade a troop withdrawal for greater Soviet influence in the Middle East and Asia...
...The resistance, in particular the fundamentalists, is liable to react against American pressure...
...The U.S...
...When the Soviets finally leave, these various factions will almost certainly fall into civil war in the countryside...
...Yet there is something to be said for actively promoting a political settlement, too...
...In the event that the Soviets and Israel reestablish diplomatic relations, Moscow could dampen Arab outrage by ending the occupation of Afghanistan...
...The Zia-led government wants the war to end, but is afraid to stop backing the extreme Afghan parties...
...This is part of the problem...
...The Soviets have recently improved their positions in both regions, especially with China, Kuwait, Oman, Iran, and Israel...
...First, he can blame the whole Afghanistan mess on Brezhnev and the "old thinkers" who ordered the intervention...
...should recognize that the former king is probably the only person capable of drawing the Communists and many of the resistance factions into the same room...
...If the United States genuinely wants the war to end, we must be willing to help out the Soviets where we can, while evenly urging Moscow and Kabul to make the sacrifices they eventually must make...
...The president is sure to demand a quick Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, echoing former Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger who declared, "It took the Soviets two weeks to get in, and I don't see why it should take them more than two weeks to get out...
...He has written for The Atlantic Monthly, Social Policy, and Nuclear Times...
...This is why the U.S...
...Thus the United Nations-sponsored negotiation on a timetable for Soviet withdrawal presupposes a political settlement of the conflict before the Soviets leave...
...The Soviets do have options for leaving Afghanistan...
...The administration, in its consultations with Pakistan and the Soviet Union, should urge all sides to give Zahir Shah an opportunity to engineer a settlement...
...and Pakistan heavily favor the seven fundamentalists parties in Pakistan...
...Unfortunately, it is not that simple...
...The recalcitrant parties we have favored are, aside from their fighting the Soviets, hostile to American, Israeli, Saudi, and other pro-Western interests in the region...
...GEORGE PERKOVICH George Perkovich is a fellow of the World Policy Institute, specializing in Soviet-American relations...
...Pakistan has conflicting interests...
...also should continue diplomatically and militarily pushing the Soviet anH Kabul Communists toward substantial concessions to end the horrid war they caused...
...Each of these countries calls for Soviet withdrawal as proof that Moscow is worthy of normal relations...
...No matter what happens," concludes Louis Dupree, one of America's leading experts on Afghanistan, "struggles for power will probably break out after the Soviet departure, as the Afghan resistance fighters establish regional political pecking orders...
...Within Afghanistan itself, a number of tribal groups also fight the Soviets...
...Both superpowers would have to pressure their clients — the Kabul Communists and the seven fundamentalist parties in Pakistan — to go along with the former king's efforts...
...The Soviets have already said they would welcome Zahir Shah as a prominent member of a coalition government...
...They will have to offer meaningful concessions before the resistance will accept a truce...
...There can be no progress on a withdrawal of Russian troops," according to a Western diplomat, without a settlement of the civil conflict that prompted the Soviets to invade in the first place...
...Despite the Soviets' massive military presence, Moscow does not have complete sway over the Communists...
...If some in the resistance are less dangerous and more accommodating, why not encourage them, through Pakistan, to deal their way into power...
...Fortunately for Gorbachev, he has at least two ways to save face...
...The Communists know that the Soviets would lose credibility by abandoning them without a settlement...
...Even with a political settlement, a troop withdrawal requires the Soviets to accept a massive failure and the inevitability of a non-Marxist Afghanistan...
...Pakistan also represents the resistance in the United Nations negotiations and in discussions with the Soviet Union...
...The U.S...
...Pakistan has denied the former king, Zahir Shah, permission to send emissaries into Pakistan to organize Afghan refugees behind a settlement 18 December 1987: 725 effort...
...The resistance is comprised of many diverse groups that compete with each other and refuse to coordinate military activities or form a credible political front...
...By pulling back, the Soviets would lessen distrust and buttress their standing with countries much more important than Afghanistan...
...These groups tend to be "more disposed to compromise with the Communists if this will assure a complete Soviet force withdrawal," according to Selig Harrison, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specialist on Afghanistan...
...Yet even if the administration wanted to help the Soviets out, the prospects of convincing the resistance to cease fighting and to support a mixed government are very uncertain...
...Pakistan is a central player in the resistance because it houses over three million Afghan refugees and is the conduit for most resistance aid...
...The United States can and must contribute to the settlement process...
...A Soviet withdrawal would jeopardize the lives of hundreds of thousands of Communist followers...
...The American challenge is to promote factions of the Afghan resistance who are willing to seek a political settlement with the Soviet-backed Afghan Communists, while distancing ourselves from the uncompromising fundamentalist parties we now favor...
...Finally, the former Afghan King, Mohammed Zahir Shah, now residing in Italy, has a following that could grow and rally behind him in an effort to create a transitional government with the Communists...
...All parties in the Afghanistan discussions are aware that any power-sharing arrangement is unlikely to last...
...not to favor any of them and wind up alienating the eventual winners...
...Of course, the U.S...
...Of course the onus for ending the Soviet occupation rests squarely on the Soviets and the Afghan Communists...
...Four of them are Islamic fundamentalists as extreme as the Ayatollah Khomeini...
...Now that the Soviets want a way out, the hardline resistance groups obstruct the path...
...The Communists are dead meat if certain of the mujahidin take control," Dupree says...
...r For Washington, this approach is riskier than merely supplying arms for an endless war...
...This disturbs the Soviets as well as the Afghans, and provides one more lever for the Kabul leaders to push against the Soviets...
...To avoid such bloodletting, Moscow would have to offer haven to Afghans fleeing the mujahidin...
...As principal backers of the Afghan resistance and of their Pakistani patrons, the U.S...
...The Kabul government is afraid to let its vengeful opponents into the corridors of power...
...The point of a transitional government is to provide the Soviets a "decent interval'' to cover the tracks of their retreat...
...has refrained from pursuing a political settlement, preferring to press the Soviets militarily...
...In Afghanistan, however, Gorbachev appears to have concluded they have no choice...
...They loathe any compromise, and want to establish an Islamic republic purer than has ever existed in a Sunni Muslim country...
...The Soviets would have to abide a tenuously "neutral" Afghanistan on its border, after over thirty years of generally pro-Soviet governments there...
...Right now," says a State Department official, the seven parties are "more interested in fighting than dealing...
...is a key player in Afghanistan...
...and Pakistan stay with them...
...Whatever America does, it will be a long time before strife in Afghanistan ends...
...The fundamentalists will not bend as long as the U.S...
...In the past the U.S...
...Moreover, since it is difficult to predict which of the competing factions will win out in Afghanistan, it is safer for the U.S...
...Such a switch of allegiance would anger Pakistani fundamentalist groups and could eventually lead to ethnic problems within Pakistan...
...Gorbachev and the "new thinkers" can be portrayed as the men who led the troops out of the quagmire...
Vol. 114 • December 1987 • No. 22
