'Yuri's usurpers'
Hahn, Jeffrey
22 March 1985: 165 The Soviet succession -YURI'S USURPERS' WHY GORBACHEV MATTERS Konstantin CHERNENKO is dead, and Mikhail Gorbachev is his anointed successor as General Secretary of the Soviet...
...Their chief preoccupation will be how to get the economy moving again...
...Improved relations with the West would also presumably broaden Soviet access to Western technology, a consequence which many Western businessmen would welcome almost as much as Soviet reformers...
...Soviet preoccupation with the domestic economy combined with a more restrained foreign policy would not necessarily result in greater tolerance for domestic dissent...
...For the bureaucrats, this would mean the loss of power and, potentially, of position, both so secure in Brezhnev's last years...
...However, to see Soviet-American relations as a zero-sum game in which one can win only if the other loses will serve only to perpetuate the present sterile confrontation...
...If this analysis of the divisions in the Kremlin is accurate, there is a good chance that it does...
...What incentives for moderation exist for those whom I have labeled "Yuri's usurpers...
...Talk about arms control in Geneva...
...22 March 1985: 165 The Soviet succession -YURI'S USURPERS' WHY GORBACHEV MATTERS Konstantin CHERNENKO is dead, and Mikhail Gorbachev is his anointed successor as General Secretary of the Soviet Communist party...
...should seriously probe the intentions of whoever is in charge...
...His chief rival, Grigory Romanov, has appeared to be the favorite of nervous Brezhnev bureaucrats...
...For Gorbachev, the incentives for moderation are compelling...
...and the Soviets do share at this point in time is an interest in reducing the risk of nuclear war and in resolving their economic problems...
...The last years of Brezhnev's leadership were characterized increasingly by an inability or unwillingness to confront problems...
...We should recognize the limits on our ability to influence the Soviets domestically...
...Already, however, Americans are wondering whether it makes any difference...
...The scenario presented here links Soviet domestic reform with foreign policy moderation...
...The twin themes of his short tenure were discipline within the bureaucracy and decentralization in managerial decision-making...
...The prospect of a Gorbachev firmly in charge must be viewed by this group with little enthusiasm...
...Watch and wait...
...The achievement of these goals by each would be enhanced by an improvement of relations with the other...
...The reformers' remedy is to break the ministerial gridlock and transfer more decision-making authority to managers in the field...
...If Thatcher can work with Gorbachev, why not Reagan...
...Gorbachev, the Communist party secretary responsible for agriculture, did not address the session...
...Commonweal: 166...
...That is about the extent of the news as of this writing — on Monday, March 11...
...Is there really a kopeck's worth of difference between Gorbachev and Chernenko, or between Gorbachev and the other members of the Politburo who might have been chosen instead of him, in particular his chief "rival," Grigory Romanov...
...This means that his political maturation took place during the Khrushchev years, a period when reform was rampant, if not always well considered...
...Consider, for example, the Central Committee plenary session on agricultural policy held in October, 1984...
...After the dust does settle, however, the U.S...
...do in the present situation...
...not harbor unrealistic expectations of the new Soviet leadership...
...Whence this division...
...It is one thing to receive authority, but unless you also have the necessary financial and technical support, your chances of success are slim...
...Thus, both directions were unwelcome to those members of the apparatus who thrived under Brezhnev's policy of benign neglect...
...In the final analysis what the U.S...
...this makes him a natural ally of the heavy industrial sector, traditionally strong in the central bureaucracy and resistant to change...
...The rivalry with Romanov may not necessarily mean that the Soviet leadership will be sharply fractured...
...Andropov is widely admired by Soviets today because he was perceived as someone who wanted to lead society out of this miasma and "get the country moving again...
...He holds the agricultural "portfolio" and has spoken admiringly of Hungarian success in using market incentives to stimulate productivity in this area...
...JEFFREY HAHN (Jeffrey Hahn, an associate professor of political science at Vlllanova University, specializes in Soviet politics and political behavior...
...For decentralization to work, the managers to whom authority is being transferred must be assured that they will not be penalized for taking risks...
...With a degree in law from Moscow State University, he is the best-educated member of the Politburo...
...Finally, he travels well...
...In fact, the USSR has repeatedly weathered succession crises much more successfully than many Western observers anticipated...
...The USSR was a ship of state adrift...
...New technology and recapitalization cost money...
...Some of the rubles being spent to maintain a Soviet presence on the Chinese border, in Eastern Europe, and especially in Afghanistan, could be re-allocated to domestic investment if negotiation prevailed over confrontation in these and other areas of the world where the Soviets have become involved...
...The rate of industrial growth dropped precipitously after 1975...
...The search for the capital and technology needed to give the reforms a chance to work could be found by reducing Soviet costs abroad and increasing trade with the West...
...Change, however, always threatens those who benefit from the status quo...
...In any case, it is doubtful that definitive responses will be forthcoming from the Soviet side without a complete resolution of the leadership issue...
...What should the U.S...
...He organized the funeral and delivered the eulogy, completely eclipsing Gorbachev who had to cut short his visit with Margaret Thatcher to return to Moscow...
...Gorbachev's rise to prominence has not been uncontested, however...
...When Stalin died in 1953, Gorbachev was still in the university...
...But, in a mature industrial economy, where the sources of growth are increasingly qualitative, such a structure is hopelessly inefficient...
...He demonstrated his ability to deal with Western leaders during his trip to Canada several years ago and during his recent trip to Britain, which was well received there and extensively covered in the Soviet media...
...Instead, two old Brezhnev men, Chernenko and Soviet Premier Tikhonov, set forth a policy of massive land reclamation, a policy already tried, with little success, in the mid-fifties...
...As long as the sources of economic growth were quantitative, this structure worked well enough...
...Thus, decentralization without adequate capital investment is as likely to fail to stimulate Soviet economic growth as is capital investment without decentralization...
...Rather they should elicit a willingness to meet the Soviets half-way in the areas of trade, scientific exchanges, and arms control...
...Neither result is in American interests...
...Agriculture stagnated...
...At 53, he is also its youngest member...
...The more innovative, but also more unsettling, policies advocated by Gorbachev were ignored...
...The reasons are many and varied, but at their core is the maturation of the Soviet industrial base...
...As noted, the decline in the rate of economic growth over the past ten years has been dramatic...
...A presidential invitation to the new Soviet leader to exchange views on these and other issues of mutual concern would also be welcome...
...Soviet reaction will be to further increase military expenditures...
...Tangible moves by Gorbachev to improve relations with the West and with the USSR's own neighbors should not be dismissed as tactical devices designed to delude the gullible...
...Still, it is only one of several signs indicating the constraints within which Gorbachev must maneuver...
...The war in Afghanistan dragged on inconclusively...
...Nor are the Soviets going to allow a neutral regime in Poland or an anti-Soviet government in Afghanistan...
...Perhaps it is more clear what we should not do...
...Efforts to exploit the present situation by seeking to reestablish American military superiority (as the Soviets perceive MX, the stealth, " Star Wars,'' and cruise missiles bomber are intended to do), or to undermine the Soviet system from within will reinforce the Soviet's sense of threat...
...Despite his youth, he has considerable seniority, having been made both a full member of the Politburo and a Secretary of the Central Committee in 1978...
...Corruption flourished...
...So does it make any difference that Gorbachev has apparently emerged on top...
...Doubtless, a collective sigh of relief from this quarter greeted the announcement that Brezhnev's old friend and personal protege, Chernenko, would replace the ascetic Andropov...
...In this context, Gorbachev appears to have the support of the reformers...
...We should divest ourselves of any illusions about their imminent collapse or that they will accept inferior military status...
...So does recent talk about breaching SALT II limits on the number of submarine-launched missiles...
...He is currently writing a book on locally elected Soviet officials, based on research gathered on his most recent three-month-long visit to Russia during the fall of 1984...
...It is also important that the U.S...
...Clearly, however, the greatest potential gains to be made in re-allocating scarce resources from guns to butter would be an agreement with the United States to avoid a new arms race...
...Nothing...
...Especially, we must avoid the illusion of detente — never shared by the Soviets — that normalization of relations in some areas means a more or less permanent end to global competition...
...In fact, it may mean the opposite...
...The answer is yes, at least in terms of their sources of political support...
...These considerations lead from the domestic to the international arena...
...While foreign policy issues are of negligible importance in choosing a successor, I believe that the reformers — headed by Gorbachev — have much to gain and little to lose by pursuing a moderate course in foreign policy...
...The character of the economy has been changing, but the overcentralized ministerial structure of economic decision-making differs little from the Stalin years...
...Only last December, at the funeral of Defense Minister Dimitri Ustinov, Romanov was highly visible...
...Until the dust settles some more, and we know with whom we are really dealing, this is not the time for new initiatives...
...it would also strengthen the position of Moscow hard-liners...
...Romanov holds the military portfolio in the Secretariat, which runs the Communist party apparatus...
...Such a solution will not be satisfying to ideologues on both sides who seek either military superiority or moral victory...
...Decentralization is essentially an administrative cure...
...In general, the political struggle at the top appears to be between those who seek power in order to pursue the systemic reforms begun by Andropov — let's call them "Yuri's usurpers" — and those who are threatened by such changes — the "Brezhnev bureaucrats...
Vol. 112 • March 1985 • No. 6
