U.S. policy for a Middle East in motion
Hehir, J. Bryan
Church/world watch U.S. policy for a Middle East in motion J. Bryan Hehir THE MIDDLE EAST was not a significant factor in the 1984 election, and it remained insignificant in the policy...
...That 1982 speech was a solid, well designed initiative—arguably the best foreign policy speech of the first Reagan term...
...The early Reagan policy tilted decidedly toward the geopolitical perspective, encouraging Arab states (with very different policies) to form a "strategic consensus' ' against Soviet penetration of the region...
...Such an appointment would send the message that the United States had heard Mr...
...policy over the last four decades had vacillated between a geopolitical view, which saw the Middle East as an appendage of the U.S.-Soviet competition, and an alternative view, which stressed the regional roots of the problem as the principal guide to U.S...
...What is possible in the mid-eighties...
...Just before the Inauguration the administration announced forthcoming meetings with the Soviets on the Middle East...
...Any seri-(Continued on page 94) Commonweal: 72 (Continued from page 72) ous cooperation on the Middle East will be conditioned by progress in other dimensions of the superpower relationship, notably the recently renewed discussions on arms control...
...diplomats in the Middle East, argued that U.S...
...interests there guarantee that this country will be a player in the process — ready or not...
...America suffered the loss of lives and of face in Lebanon...
...Since 1982 all of the major actors in the region have moved...
...determination to undertake a significant role in the Middle East...
...The results do not simplify the dynamics of the region, but they do open possibilities not present in 1982...
...Kissinger (an unlikely but interesting choice...
...The 1982 Reagan Plan was abandoned by Israel and the key Arab actors before it was given a chance...
...The most recent issue of Foreign Policy carried two "memoranda" to the President written by Abba Eban of Israel and Crown Prince Hassan of Jordan...
...In a recent article in Foreign Affairs, Alfred L. Atherton, Jr., one of the most experienced U.S...
...The likely outcome will be a sharing of views after a long hiatus in such conversations...
...policy agenda...
...The advantage of this level of representation is that it lodges policy in the hands of the area professionals...
...At the center of this division is the split in the PLO between an Arafat faction and a rival group sponsored by Syria...
...In 1984 most policy activity rested with Assistant Secretary of State Richard Murphy, an able and experienced Middle East diplomat...
...The keys to implementation were the Israelis and the Jordanians...
...But the lack of interest in Washington does not mean that other actors in the Middle East believe that the United States can remain a spectator...
...policy, then moving to reestablish diplomatic relations with Egypt and also reconstituting conversations with Mr...
...Eban made the case against American passivity: "An atmosphere of fatalism and apathy surrounds the Arab-Israeli conflict...
...policy which finally produced the more regionally sensitive Reagan proposal of September 1982...
...Both their global interests and their ties to key actors in the region preclude isolation of the Soviets...
...The strategic consensus did not sell in the Middle East and the condominium idea did not sell in the United States...
...They run from the view that produced the "strategic consensus" proposal to the condominium concept reflected in the 1973 Geneva Conference and in the joint statement of principles on the Middle East worked out by the United States and the Soviet Union in the Carter administration...
...J. BRYAN HEfflR Commonweal: 94...
...The Begin government is gone, replaced by a fragile but somewhat more flexible coalition headed by Shimon Peres...
...The outcome of the Jordanian initiative, in the words of the impressive journal, The Middle East International, is, ' "The division of the Arab world is now more advanced than at any time since the 1960s...
...This double experience provides solid reasons for extreme caution...
...This cautionary note raises the second policy question: how is the superpower relationship understood in its connection to the Middle East...
...American passivity would condemn the Middle East to a volcanic status quo leading to a possible explosion...
...The limitation of this level of engagement is that it does not carry the political weight to indicate a renewed U.S...
...These moves were made in the face of Syrian opposition...
...There is no alternative to the United States as an agent, of reconciliation in the region...
...The possible options are evident in past policies...
...unfortunately, neither was ready to move...
...President Assad, justifiably convinced of his diplomatic coup in standing down American power in Lebanon, is not prepared to be relegated to a secondary position in Arab politics or Middle East diplomacy...
...None of this argues for simply resurrecting the Reagan proposal of 1982, but redesigning it in light of new conditions would not be a bad start...
...The first is: which policy vision will guide American actions...
...policy for a Middle East in motion J. Bryan Hehir THE MIDDLE EAST was not a significant factor in the 1984 election, and it remained insignificant in the policy perspective of the Reagan administration at the outset of 1985...
...The picture shaping up in 1985, therefore, is that of the United States being pushed and pulled into a Middle East role for which, at the policy level, it has little inclination and less preparation...
...To send such a signal will most likely require a special emissary of the status of Mr...
...Presuming this is so, three questions confront the Reagan administration...
...What would decidedly be a bad start would be a return to the geopolitical focus of the early 1980s...
...There is an understandable reticence in Washington to putting the Middle East anywhere near the center on the U.S...
...Clearly the Soviets cannot be excluded from any long-term approach to a settlement in the Middle East...
...There are solid policy reasons for including them early in a limited way in any policy initiative, but it may not be either politically possible or attractive to key Reagan policymakers to do so...
...the logic of a Jordanian-Egyptian-PLO alliance frustrates Syrian pretensions to leadership in the Arab world...
...The Jordanians have launched their own initiative, with King Hussein first rendering a scathing critique of U.S...
...Eban's invitation...
...If an American Middle East initiative is undertaken, the final policy problem remains: how will it be staffed within the administration...
...Linowitz or Mr...
...Arafat...
...Both the history of the Middle East conflict and the nature of U.S...
...When it became clear that most of the candidates for the consensus did not see the Soviets as their primary problem, there was a gradual refocus-ing of U.S...
Vol. 112 • February 1985 • No. 3
