The moment to say no
Powers, Thomas
Of several minds: Thomas Powers THE MOMENT TO SAY NO A THOUGHT FOR THE BISHOPS BACK DURING the first months of the Carter administration a major inter-agency study of strategic weapons policy...
...Spokesmen for the administration, including Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger and National Advisor William Clark, have been arguing hard for support of American deterrence theory, but there is nothing they can say which has not been said often before...
...Military men insist we do not target "population per se...
...Perhaps a story will help make the point...
...A Ceylonese dealer showed him many stones but they all fell short...
...his first ambition was to be a novelist, and for him the buying and selling of beautiful stones is filled with romance...
...Since this is the case - and it really is the case - the bishops are bound to ask themselves what can be the purpose of a solemn pronouncement, leading to endless acrimony, which will have no practical effect on the problem it addresses...
...I'd like to see it," said Bernie...
...In short, American plans for a nuclear war include a final stage representing a kind of death throe or spasm of revenge of unparalleled ferocity...
...The bishops can say whatever they like...
...It was cheap but not so cheap...
...We'll never sell it...
...Nevertheless, I am sure you will sell it in the end...
...My friend Bernie is a Jewish gem merchant with an office on 47th Street in New York's diamond district...
...The state maintains a vast repressive establishment to ensure its own absolute control, and the evidence all suggests it is effective...
...This was in the mid-1970s when the Arabs were buying, prices were rising, and the market was good for the very finest stones...
...But you won't like it...
...no, no, it's not for you...
...You're right...
...This shifts the responsibility to the other side...
...If the bishops take a radical and uncompromising stand they will break this long record of helpless acquiescence...
...Its members are comfortable with thin hopes...
...But in the final, all-out stages of a nuclear war we would target transportation centers, "war-supporting industry" and other sites ''critical to recovery...
...As a practical matter that includes cities...
...It has a flaw, you won't want it, there's no point...
...There is a good chance the bishops will conclude that both the use and even the possession of nuclear weapons are morally impermissible, but two considerations might still persuade them to shrink back from so radical a statement...
...But wait...
...This is the reef on which all previous, unofficial, extra-governmental attempts to halt the arms race have foundered...
...Let me see...
...There's a big black dot right in the middle...
...I have one stone, it has a magnificent color, it's big," said the dealer, "but...
...His specialty is colored stones and he travels all over the world to buy rubies, emeralds, and sapphires...
...This fact is, or ought to be, a troubling one...
...There's a big black dot right in the middle...
...This the administration claims (somewhat disingenuously) it is already trying to do...
...To say it is all right to depend on nuclear weapons for safety while we negotiate, is to say it is all right to depend on them for safety period...
...Let me see," said the Italian dealer...
...The blue held him, the dot offended him...
...But the dealer did not reject the stone out of hand...
...He told me once of a certain sapphire he bought in Sri Lanka...
...A preliminary version of the Conference's "Pastoral Letter on War and Peace'' was circulated earlier this year, and a final version is expected next...
...A few years went by...
...The entire defense establishment would breathe a sigh of relief...
...Many dealers looked at the stone, all marveled at the gorgeous blue, none bought...
...You're right," said the Italian...
...The first is that the bishops' influence does not extend to the Soviet Union, which means that any steps they recommend must of necessity be unilateral...
...The difference is that those who pray do not insist praying is enough...
...If we are going to have nuclear weapons at all, we have got to be ready to fight with them...
...Nevertheless, the bishops will find it hard to reject such an approach, if only because of their natural reluctance to advocate unilateral measures which the Soviets would be sure to exploit...
...But there is a solid reason for going ahead anyway, whatever the practical prospects for a radical statement might be...
...A forthright condemnation of nuclear weapons will encourage the peace movement, will push this and succeeding administrations to negotiate seriously, will force a crisis of conscience in many Catholics in the military or in defense industries, and will precipitate an unpleasant - perhaps an ugly - confrontation between Church and State...
...When the dust settles the missiles will still be in their silos...
...Nothing suited...
...Ohhhh," he said, "the color, it's beautiful . . . But wait...
...Can there be any way to justify preparations to commit such an enormity...
...If you buy this stone from me, that proves it can be sold...
...But I'll never be able to sell it...
...he said...
...What a blue...
...Military planners hope that we would recover - with luck, even recover first - but they are frank to admit no one can predict how things would turn out in fact...
...It is natural that the bishops should hesitate...
...I told you," said Bernie...
...Of several minds: Thomas Powers THE MOMENT TO SAY NO A THOUGHT FOR THE BISHOPS BACK DURING the first months of the Carter administration a major inter-agency study of strategic weapons policy concluded that we would kill about 113 million Russians in the opening stages of an all-out nuclear war...
...I have a gorgeous sapphire with the clearest, finest blue you have even seen," said Bernie, "but...
...In a letter to the bishops, Weinberger said "the burden of proof must fall upon those who would depart from the sound policies of deterrence which have kept the peace for so long," But how do you prove it is the threat of nuclear destruction which has kept the peace...
...But wait...
...But what are the bishops to suggest in place of deterrence...
...Since Soviet military forces do not total more than three or four million, the vast majority of Russian casualties in a major nuclear war would be the wholly innocent victims of events with which they had nothing to do...
...I'm looking for something really special," Bernie told him...
...Their deaths would not even serve to "defend" the United States in the usual sense, since an all-out attack on our part would invite the same in return, which we could do little to blunt...
...This is the question which the National Conference of Catholic Bishops is now attempting to answer...
...One day a new face came to the door, an Italian dealer with the right introductions and a lot of money to spend for very rich clients...
...The American military fully understand the implications of this fact, and it accepts them...
...But even when there has been genuine presidential enthusiasm for negotiations progress has been agonizingly slow...
...The considerations which might sway the bishops toward caution are not of an intellectual or moral but of a practical nature...
...I bought a sapphire, it has the most gorgeous color...
...The second practical consideration which may caution the bishops is the fact that U.S...
...the Italian asked...
...He wanted to see only the best...
...The Italian held it to the light...
...So the dealer brought out the stone and Bernie put it in his loop and held it to the light...
...But it is not going to end the arms race, it will not lead to unilateral reductions in strategic arms by the United States, it will not alter the cast of American war planning, and it will not lessen the danger of nuclear war...
...The day of "pure deterrence" - a threat to retaliate with nuclear weapons if the other side attacks first - is over...
...I have one client...
...Those who pray for peace could make the same claim: they have been praying, and there has been peace...
...Did you get anything nice...
...No one should harbor illusions on this point...
...Well...
...He has got a poetic streak...
...You paid too much," his father said...
...Haven't you anything really special...
...American military men cannot even imagine a defense posture which does not include nuclear weapons...
...Everybody else faced with the problem has accepted de-terence theory in the end - some formulation which says, in effect, that it's okay for us to have them as long as they have them...
...it is structurally committed to them...
...The color is magnificent...
...defense policy with its reliance on nuclear weapons is going to remain pretty much the same whatever the bishops decide...
...Don't you see...
...There can be few countries where ordinary citizens have as little influence on their rulers as they do in the Soviet Union...
...what's the use, no one buys it...
...Bernie felt the sale was in the balance...
...The bishops, like so many before them, are on square one...
...Indeed, PRM 10 concluded that even more Americans would die in such a war - 120 million or so...
...The argument for deterrence is neither intellectually nor morally satisfying...
...What can be hoped for now from an administration which had to be dragged to the negotiating table, and which is committed to a vast new strategic weapons program...
...When he got back to New York his father asked how it went...
...Perhaps . . . No, no, it's beautiful...
...What the Russians would actually do in such a situation it is impossible to predict in detail, but we can be sure we wouldn't like it...
...Bernie gave him the stone and his father held it to the light...
...I told you," the dealer said...
...The American defense establishment is not just intellectually committed to nuclear weapons...
...I've had this stone three years...
...It goes without saying that a world in which only the Russians have or are willing to use nuclear weapons would be a world subject to Russian domination...
...No one has ever seen a blue like this, but the dot is a definite problem...
...Bernie showed him...
...This ghastly carnage, dwarfing the 20 million Russian dead from World War II, would not be the result of any deliberate attempt to kill as many Russians as possible...
...The obvious alternative to a unilateral rejection of nuclear weapons is an attempt at negotiated mutual reduction...
...So I find myself urging them forward with the same argument my friend Bernie used to persuade the Italian gem dealer to think of the color of the stone, not its flaw: if the bishops can find the strength to say no, they will prove it can be done...
...Okay," said Bernie...
...Many other important and responsible groups have considered the problem of nuclear weapons, but they have all balked at the final jump...
...If offers no hope, just the bare possibility things might go on as they are...
...Bernie had never seen such a blue, and finally he bought the stone...
...What they cannot face is the idea this is up to us...
...The weapons are too numerous and accurate for that...
...Indeed, the number of warheads on both sides grew rapidly while the first two SALT agreements were negotiated during the 1970s...
...his father asked...
...How can I say yes if I don't see it...
...But the color was unparalleled...
...The study, referred to as PRM 10, did not estimate how many Russians would die in the following year or so...
...To go beyond that is to enter truly unknown territory...
...There's a big black dot right in the middle...
...Bernie brought it out...
...It would not be surprising if they settled in the end for urging the two sides to forgo threats of violence and negotiate seriously...
...Look," he said...
...THOMAS POWERS...
Vol. 109 • November 1982 • No. 19
