The view in Germany

...Nonetheless, at least two million West Germans have already signed a national appeal against the deployment of the NATO missiles...

...Europe in general, and West Germany in particular, do not take the U.S...

...Not so the West Germans...

...The Social Democrats, who years ago renounced their Marxist origins, have been in power for thirteen years, first under Willy Brandt and more recently under the moderate reformist Helmut Schmidt...

...Every time a high U.S...

...But an anti-militaristic mood seems to be spreading through West German society, and in this West Germany is not alone...

...He regards the present situation as tragic, but he is not persuaded that General Jaruzelski is simply a creature of the Kremlin, believing that the General is convinced he is serving the needs of the Polish people...

...When the pipeline is finished, the Chancellor argued, it would represent only 6 percent of the country's total energy needs...

...official in the Reagan administration talked about the possibility of winning a nuclear war or engaged in similar loose talk, the ranks of the peace movement in West German and indeed all over Europe swelled significantly...

...Added to criticism of America's wheat deal with the Russians is the general dislike of Reaganomics...

...Why is it so strange, they ask, if West Germans have a different view on El Salvador, for instance...

...Reagan's huge deficit and high interest rates are ruining their depressed economy...

...A recent poll, for instance, showed that in long-time U.S...

...Many of the peace people seem to imagine that the USSR, without any signed agreement, will follow the West's example if the NATO missiles are not deployed...

...The USSR, West Germans say, has been in the gas-producing business for a long time and is not likely to be a less reliable supplier than other potential sources such as Algeria, Iran, or Libya...

...How do the German leaders view the peace movement...

...Like everyone else I talked to about Poland, Schmidt emphasized the very great number of postage-free food parcels sent by Germans to Poland - many, he said, in grateful memory of the food packages sent to Germany by Americans after World War II...

...takes it for granted, they say...

...This might well mean the end of Mr.Schmidt's government and new national elections - although there is also some speculation that the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats might even get together in that event and squeeze out the smaller parties...

...In addition to that risk, there is the further question of membership in the upper house of parliament...

...They now govern in coalition with the much smaller Free Democrats, who are in direct descent from the tradition of nineteenth century European Liberalism and whom one of their officials described as now being somewhere between the Social Democrats on the left and Ronald Reagan on the right...

...They never imagined that detente would solve the East-West problem - just stabilize it...

...As a result, the Social Democrats have been taking defeat after defeat in local elections, the most recent occurring while I was in Germany, in Schmidt's own territory of Hamburg, long considered a Social Democratic fief...

...The Kennedy-Hatfield proposal is for a verifiable two-way freeze on all nuclear weapons, East and West...

...As for the technology involved, pipeline supporters say that it does not in any sense represent high technology that would be beneficial to the Soviet Union, which already has a well-developed gas production system...

...I doubt that the NATO summiteers worked any harder than we did on our stay in Germany, which included lengthy interviews with people ranging from West German unancellor Helmut Schmidt and Social Democratic party chairman Willy Brandt to the Christian Democratic vice-mayor of Berlin and assorted labor leaders and German journalists...

...In a country where Protestants and Catholics are almost equally divided, a high proportion of Christian Democratic leaders are Catholic, and I was told that a majority of Catholics voted for the party, although millions of Catholic workers in the Ruhr support the more liberal Social Democrats...

...and the USSR open negotiations aimed at eliminating medium-range missiles entirely, Germany's preferred solution...

...Few if any West Germans would readily give up either advantage...

...The plan is to construct a three-thousand-mile gas line that will cost an estimated $15 billion...

...Both the Carter and the Reagan administrations opposed the pipeline deal, arguing that once it went into service in 1984 Western Europe would be too dependent on Soviet gas and hence vulnerable to a threatened Soviet cut-off...

...In 1979 NATO made a decision to install 572 U.S.-built nuclear-armed Pershing II and cruise missiles in five West European countries, including West Germany, beginning in late 1983...

...Thus West Germany never buys more than 30 percent of any one fuel from any one country...

...no one I talked to had any hopes of its early accomplishment...

...Germans in the peace movement like to compare it with the freeze movement in the U.S., and in this connection Der Spiegel featured Senator Kennedy on its cover recently, but this is something less than accurate...

...They continue to regard West Germany as one state within a larger nation, but all I spoke to would agree with Willy Brandt's estimate: reunification can come, for all practical purposes, only if major changes take place between Europe and the East, and even then the result might not be one nation-state...

...Yet if one out of thirty West Germans signs an anti-missile petition, Washington is in an uproar...

...That is the most probable result provided that a coalition between the Free Democrats and the Christian Democrats is forged on a national level...

...And given the fact that agriculture is Soviet Russia's weakest economic sector, they ask, why single out the pipeline deal for criticism when the U.S...

...on is Poland...

...The NATO decision was what is called double track: the threat to install the missiles was accompanied by a demand that the U.S...

...Said he of the peace marchers: "I have experienced worse things than young Germans demonstrating for peace...

...Many Americans have come to think that detente was a sham that injured the West...

...The Christian Democrats suffered no such embarrassment-indeed, the Christian Democratic Union sponsored a large pro-American rally in Bonn shortly before Mr...

...AFTER YEARS of a stability which was the envy of other nations, the political future in West Germany has suddenly become quite problematic...

...Although Mr...

...One-third of the Italian population regularly votes Communist, and the U.S...

...At the close of our interview with him, Helmut Schmidt volunteered that he simply could not understand the growing resentment of Americans toward young Germans who are marching for peace...

...At the same time the extent of this trade with the East should not be exaggerated...

...Exactly what all this would mean for the future is anybody's guess, but one thing is sure: the result would not likely be a simple continuation of the status quo...

...A Christian Democratic victory in Hesse in September would give that party a two-thirds majority in the upper house, making all national legislation subject to Christian Democratic approval...

...The German peace movement has been calling for a one-sided Western freeze on deployment of missiles...

...They are still the largest single political party but so far, at least, they cannot command a majority...

...urged West Germany to buy U.S...

...Nonetheless, at the moment much that looks like anti-Americanism is really anti-Reaganism, a characteristic that seems to be declining somewhat since Mr...

...coal instead but West Germans do not believe we have the shipping facilities to handle such large sales...

...Reagan has emphasized his willingness to negotiate arms reductions...

...As former Chancellor Willy Brandt put it, he like many of his countrymen prefers the German word for "easing of tensions" rather than the ambitious French term detente...

...National policy is to avoid putting all their eggs in one basket - they follow what he called the diversification of risk...

...They won almost eight percent, picking up nine seats in Hamburg, and knocking the Free Democrats out of their third position...

...The results: 43.3 percent of the vote for the Social Democrats, compared with 51.5 percent in 1978 - their worst defeat there since World War II...

...Unemployment in West Germany, although not as bad as in the U.S., is at a record high for them, and this is hurting the Social Democrats at the polls...

...At the very least the Greens would in that case influence Social Democratic policy, moving it sharply to the left...

...As the head of West German Ruhrgas told us, the alternative to gas for Germany is not coal or nuclear energy but OPEC oil - not the most reliable alternative in the world...

...And Willy Brandt put it even more simply...

...One way or the other the peace movement pulled three hundred thousand protesters into the streets of the sleepy capital of Bonn during Reagan's visit, although two important religious groups that participated in previous demonstrations-declined to take part in this rally...

...The Soviet Union tries to exploit the peace movement but in West Germany it is not under Communist* control - far from it...

...We met no Germans who were not positive in their estimate of detente, and this universal attitude is reflected in the posture of the opposition Christian Democrats as well as of the governing coalition of Social Democrats and the smaller, business-oriented Free Democrats...

...In general West Germans cannot grasp the American lack of understanding for diversity of opinion in another democratic country...

...Threatening to resign on the issue, Schmidt forced a vote on the matter at a recent party congress and won by a 3-to-l margin...

...ally Great Britain, 56 percent of the population opposes the deployment of U.S...

...they see no chance for recovery unless the U.S...

...As Dr...

...As things now stand, the Christian Democrats have become the big vote-winners in every major German city where the Social Democrats once commanded strong working-class majorities...

...For reasons like this and other considerations that go beyond dollars and cents - including simple tradition - the bishops regularly issue a pre-election pastoral that tends to be not-so-subtly pro-Christian Democratic...

...THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL item of East-West trade is the proposed natural gas pipeline between Western Europe and Siberia, with the largest gas resources in the world, in which West Germany will participate...

...Sorting out some conclusions from the resultant wealth of material is not easy...

...Two years ago the peace movement was virtually non-existent...

...Furthermore, detente has also meant that thousands of ethnic Germans have been able to return to West Germany from Poland and other Eastern bloc nations...

...For the Christian Democrats, 43 percent, compared with 37:6 percent in 1978...

...ALL OF WHICH brings me to the question of NATO nuclear missiles on German soil...

...One of the first things the newly elected Social Democrats in one state government did, I was told, was to reduce the regular state subsidy for religious schools, and this is something the bishops were not inclined to overlook...

...West Germans and Americans simply do not see eye to eye on detente...

...Eventually it is estimated that Moscow would be shipping as much as one-quarter of all Western European natural gas needs...

...If both the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats continue unable to win a majority by themselves, and if the Free Democrats continue to decline, there is a considerably less likely but not impossible outcome: the radical Green-Alternative List, which is again expected to do very well in Hesse in September, may replace the Free Democrats as the balance of power and necessary coalition partner...

...Reagan arrived...

...This position was backed by all the major political parties, a situation that continues today, and Chancellor Schmidt made it clear to us that he will continue to support that position despite strong opposition from a vocal left wing in his own party...

...Chancellor Schmidt underscored the fact that West Germany was forced to import almost all its energy - oil, gas, and uranium...

...But if this argument is to be taken seriously, say West Germans, the West must stop all trade with the East, not isolate one nation, West Germany, as the target...

...Still harder hit than the Social Democrats were their coalition partners, the Free Democrats, who did not even attain the five percent minimum vote needed for representation in the parliament...

...Is there anti-Americanism in the peace movement...

...Horst Ehmke, deputy chairman of the Social Democratic caucus in parliament, put it, they are protesting against the NATO missiles which are not even deployed yet while remaining largely silent about Soviet missiles already aimed at the heart of Western Europe...

...The first thing to emphasize is that a good part of the German peace movement should be stamped "Made in Washington...

...This stance includes a minority who lean toward appeasement of Moscow, but it represents something else as well: a growing loss of faith in American leadership, a mood which a newly changed Reagan tone may or may not be able to modify substantially...

...This ad hoc grouping now has representatives in five state parliaments...

...they are at least as firm about standing up to the Russians as the Social Democrats...

...Another thing the West German government disagrees with the U.S...

...Perhaps the most telling U.S...

...missiles on their soil...

...The view in Germany JAMES O'GARA PRESIDENT REAGAN and the other leaders of the Atlantic alliance arrived in Bonn for their NATO summit meeting early in the second week of June...

...Ehmke the whole amount of West German trade with the East comes to less than its trade with Switzerland...

...As West Germans see it, Mr...

...The U.S...

...According to Dr...

...After their severe setback with the Social Democrats in Hamburg, the Free Democrats voted to align themselves with the Christian Democrats for crucial state elections in Hesse in September, breaking a twelve-year-old alliance with the Social Democrats and putting increasing strain on the national coalition...

...Unhappily, there is little or no evidence on their side of that argument and considerable on the other side...

...And facing them somewhere down the pike is the possibility of an end to the fabled German labor peace...

...To their elders' embarrassment, the youth divisions of both the Social Democrats and the Free Democrats participated in the anti-missilepeace demonstrations during the Reagan visit...

...Yes - especially, some say, among those under forty, many of whom have their doubts about the Atlantic alliance and who feel, probably rightly, that German interests and American interests do not always coincide...

...The reason: the Social Democrats are unable to agree over Schmidt's nuclear defense policy and they cannot come to terms with their Free Democratic coalition partner on economic policy...

...But there is at least a chance that the outcome may not be that straightforward...

...According to the scheme, the West will provide the materials and technology in what is essentially a swap for the vast quantities of natural gas the pipeline will carry...

...Schmidt's coalition won with a handsome majority only twenty months ago, it has been in a steady decline and plagued by internal divisions ever since...

...lic, with ecologists, anti-any-kind-of-nuke protesters, environmentalists, some Communists, a disturbing number of followers of a new kind of left-wing nationalism, and a good many young people who are simply alienated from the establishment...

...has just signed a very generous grain agreement with the Russians...

...Chancellor Schmidt believes that sanctions against Poland only make the Polish people suffer but do not weaken the grip of the military government...

...National elections are scheduled for 1984 unless the government falls sooner, which might very well happen...

...Almost everyone I talked to said there would be little difference, especially in foreign policy, if the Christian Democrats come to power...

...Codetermination in West German heavy industry has been a distinct success, with labor-management cooperation of a type largely unknown in the U.S...

...today it is booming...

...arguments very seriously...

...In West Germany membership in that body consists of representatives of the states apportioned according to local party strength...

...Let me start with the peace movement in West Germany, Western Europe's most important industrial and military power...

...Thus when I asked one Catholic spokesman why the bishops so obviously opposed the Social Democrats, the answer probably said something about both sides...

...Detente, however, has brought a significant easing of restrictions on visits to East Germany and has stabilized the situation in Berlin...

...Making a surprisingly strong showing was a new group called the Green-Alternative List, a rag-tag collection of leftists, pacifists, environmentalists, and advocates of participatory democracy, all totally opposed to nuclear arms and nuclear energy...

...Some Catholics undoubtedly pay attention to this exhortation, I was told, but many do not, and it was reported that a certain number of Protestants have recently been leaving Christian Democratic ranks in protest over such partisan involvement by the Roman Catholic bishops...

...As Chancellor Schmidt emphasized, the West Germans are free traders by conviction and by necessity - they export 30 percent of their Gross National Product in order to pay for imports, three times the U.S...

...This sentiment could be a problem in the future...

...Consider the attitudes of a past and a present German chancellor, both of whom lived through the Nazi horror...

...West Germany has long since renounced nuclear weapons for itself, but under the leadership of Social Democratic Helmut Schmidt West Germany declared itself ready and willing to allow the installation of 108 Pershing II and 96 cruise missiles in the country, if the Russians keep their SS-.20s...

...argument against the pipeline deal is that it will give the USSR hard currency with which it in turn can build up its military capability...

...So have we all...

...Similarly, somewhere between 70 and 80 percent of West Germans polled favor a continued alliance with the United States...

...Again this seems to be a position held across party lines and I heard no dissenting voices...

...There are some Communists in West Germany, of course, but the wall we saw dividing Berlin and the crosses nearby commemorating the deaths of some of those who tried to cross it are all too real for there to be any widespread respect or support for Communism there...

...The Roman Catholic bishops rather clearly tilt toward the more conservative Christian Democrats, apparently viewing the question both as a matter of principle and as a matter of practicality...

...I managed to beat them there by a week, thanks to the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, which sponsored an exploratory trip to Bonn and Berlin for a small group of American journalists...

...The Christian Democrats under Konrad Adenauer led the nation in the postwar years...

...The purpose of this deployment: to counter the 300 mobile SS-20 missile-launchers the USSR now has targeted on Western Europe...

...But I heard whispers that younger workers and rising labor leaders were more militant than their elders, and the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions granted that if the economy worsened still further, relations will gel increasingly harsher...

...The Christian Democrats would probably like to profit from the peace movement but it's hard to see how they can in the long run...

...Washington, take note...

...Here traditional, religiously related attitudes are important...

...figure...

...Something like one-third of all West Germans have relatives in the Eastern part of the country, which has a population of 17 million compared with West Germany's 61 million...

...Why is it, he asked, that Americans do not welcome the tremendous contrast the peace marchers offer to the spectacle of Nazi youth not so many years ago...

...West Germans are realistic about the prospects for reunification...

...changes course...

...Indeed, Germany has more imports from Eastern Europe than exports...

...The second thing to say about the peace movement is that it is not one but many movements, with membership drawn heavily from the Protestant churches, less so from the CathoJAMES O'GARA is the Editor of Commonweal...

...Finally, detente means trade, and West Germans believe that economic connections cannot help but improve the political climate...