The pain in Spain

...Since it was King Juan Carlos's resolute opposition to the putsch that proved so decisive in assuring its failure, the King now finds his influence over the military appreciably diminished...

...The essential components of traditional Spanish society - the entire political establishment, the business and banking communities, and the church - were unanimous in their opposition to a military takeover...

...Another important factor in the military's growing disenchantment has been the recent lackluster performance of the center-right government of Prime Minister Adolfo Suarez...

...The growing possibility that Socialist leader Felipe Gonzalez may be the next prime minister is a prospect highly displeasing to military rightists...

...It would also signify the surrender by this bloated officers corps of the autonomous role it has long possessed in national affairs...

...Many Spaniards feel that the fate of the country's democratic system is slipping out of their hands and could be very well decided by democracy's most redoubtable enemies...

...The passage of time, it was hoped, would bring about a reconciliation with the norms of a democratizing society...

...It was extremely chancy, for the armed forces have long exercised an intrusive presence in Spanish political affairs...

...Unavoidably, therefore, the architects of the new Spain found it necessary to engage in a risky gamble...

...YES OF A SORT SPAIN'S ABORTIVE MILITARY putsch of last February was the political price that sooner or later had to be paid for that nation's tranquil return to popular rule...

...But fearful of military disapproval of the inclusion of Socialists in the government (they are, after all the country's second largest party), Prime Minister Leopoldo Calvo Sotelo has cautiously chosen to maintain the monocolor UCD government, even though it is regarded as a weak regime and without a parliamentary majority...

...The smooth' passage from authoritarianism to parliamentary democracy had been constructed on a felicitous compromise between two disparate political forces, the politicians who had loyally served Franco and the parties and individuals that had long fought the dictatorship from clandestinity...

...To assuage the armed forces' reactions, the government has granted them enlarged responsibilities in policing the Basque region, a move that could eventually lead to an even greater involvement...

...To voluntarily confine itself now to the much more limited role usually accorded the military in western democratic societies and to accept a subordination to civilian authority would require a wrenching break with traditional Spanish military doctrine...

...For the time being, at least, the Socialist and Communists have been deprived of their normal oppositional roles and of their substantive functions in post-coup political affairs...

...Democracy may have survived but there is much talk in Madrid these days that Spain is in for a spell of "democracia vigilada" - a supervised democracy...

...The coup took place without the support of a single responsible political group or personality...

...Still, over the longer run this is a policy that offers the best hopes for ultimately bringing pacification to the violence-torn Basque provinces...

...The crucial question then is, just what sort of democracy...

...it would also go far toward aiding ETA in attaining its objective of securing popular support through the promotion of a climate of repression and polarization...

...The decline in UCD fortunes has increased the chances for the Socialist Workers party (PSOE) to emerge as the country's largest parliamentary group at the next national elections (due to be held in 1983, if the present government can last that long...

...The chances in the immediate future for a repeated coup attempt seem to have receded, but the principal concern is that while the parliamentary system is likely to survive, its authority and independence are being steadily eroded under the intrusive pressures of the military...

...BENJAMIN MARTIN (Benjamin Martin is Visiting Lecturer for Iberian Studies at the State Department's Foreign Service Institute...

...A relatively small number of military and police personnel actively collaborated in the abortive conspiracy...

...Once more the country would have found itself relegated to the role of outcast to which it had been consigned during much of the Franco era...

...Will the price to be paid for the elimination of the terrorist plague prove excessive...

...Few in Spain doubted that the military and the police (the latter operate as a paramilitary force largely under the direction of the military) would be the most troublesome obstacles to consolidating democracy...

...It is not hard to see why the armed forces and the police, unlike most sectors of Spanish society, have found it difficult to adapt to the new democratic framework...

...Raymond Carr, the noted British historian, has recently observed that objective realities have "condemned" Spain to stay democratic...

...And if things threatened to get out of hand, there was always King Juan Carlos, the commander-in-chief to whom the generals had sworn loyalty, the ultimate bulwark against the re-establishment of a military ' dictatorship...

...But it is clear that for the present the democratic process has suffered grievous damage...

...The military have emerged with an increased ability to impose their views upon the civilian establishment...

...A telling indication of the size of that support can be gained from the fact that not one of the various military and police intelligence services alerted government authorities that a coup attempt was going to take place...

...The long-sought membership in the European Economic Community would have had to be abandoned for an indeterminate future, a rebuff with potentially extremely grave consequences for a Spanish economy heavily dependent on foreign trade and outside capital investments and technology...

...On that level they came very close to succeeding...

...Furthermore, the always delicate balance between civilian and military authority has now perceptibly tipped in favor of the latter...

...The difficulty is that the police have been unsuccessful in preventing the terrorist killings and have themselves been responsible for actions undercutting the efforts of the Madrid authorities and Basque moderates...

...To avoid the slightest provocation the entire political establishment, from the conservative right to the Communists, have handled them with kid gloves...

...Though the army has been shown politically incapable of establishing a viable military dictatorship, a cowed, subdued parliament has been forced to placate the rogue elephant to avert another rampage...

...The parliament conducts its business these days with frequent uneasy glances over the shoulder to observe the military reaction...

...It is to counter this policy that the ETA-military has purposely singled out policemen and army officers as their assassination targets in conformity with a strategy designed to force the government to resort to hard-line policies by acceding to military demands calling for the declaration of martial law and responsibility for maintaining public order...

...The past year has been marked by economic stagnation, political fumbles, a decline in government authority, a steady loss of popular support, and the appearance of divisive internal quarrels within the governing Union of the Democratic Center party (UCD...

...Military plotters who heretofore conspired to overthrow the government were treated by authorities of that government with a forbearance that bordered on the masochistic...

...The granting of home rule to the Basques is looked upon as a dismemberment of the Spanish state and indignation is at a boiling point over the terrorist assassinations...

...ign Service Institute...

...Spain's parliamentary institutions have been humiliated and found vulnerable to power plays by military conspirators...

...As the dismantling of the authoritarian infrastructure proceeded, the chances grew for a jarring clash between the nascent democratic institutions and the forces of retrogression...

...Not only were certain traditionally divisive issues avoided or glossed over in drafting the new constitution, but the government bureaucracy and many of the institutions inherited from the Franco era were left virtually intact...

...Spaniards have lived more years under military dictatorships in this century than under civilian rule...

...The mood in liberal and left political circles is one of pessimism and deep concern...

...that time and circumstance would succeed in overcoming ingrained institutional habits and traditions...

...It is such a prospect and its implications that have alarmed the Basque moderates and drawn the criticism of the three bishops of the area...

...After all it had been a regime whose legitimacy rested on military power and police repression...

...but they count on the sympathy of a large majority of the officer corps...

...Since February 23, ETA has intensified its campaign of military assassinations...

...However necessary this may have been in assuring the success of the initial phase of the transition, it planted the seeds for future difficulties...

...Those facts provide the background for former Prime Minister Adolfo Suarez's description of the putsch as a "lunatic action...

...At such a time of institutional crisis, the constitution of a government of national unity embracing all major parliamentary groups would seem to have been most desirable...

...The events of February 23 demonstrated that the generals are perfectly capable of concocting a military takeover with audacity, guile, and technical expertise...

...What little civilian support it managed to scrape together came from inconsequential neofascist groups...

...Obviously it is premature to hazard an adequate judgment at this time...

...To be sure, the political myopia of the putschists was appalling...

...To do so would signify a return to the repressive tactics of the past and to forfeit the painfully difficult progress accomplished thus far in reaching a modus vivendi with Basque nationalism...

...Certainly the greatest detonator of military dissatisfaction has been the government's handling of-the extremely difficult Basque problem and its seeming inability to halt the ETA guerrillas' ceaseless murders of policemen and army officers...

...Equally dismal would have been the international consequences...

...Supported by most parties, the government has endeavored to deprive the separatist guerrillas of their popular following by a gradual transfer of powers to the recently constituted Basque regional governments...

...Both had enjoyed a privileged status under Francoism and deeply imbibed its ideology...

...In any event, the life span of a successful military regime would have been brief, the victim of gradual asphyxiation from domestic resistance and a probable international quarantine...