Democracy vs. fear
Martin, Benjamin
Democracy vs. fear BENJAMIN MARTIN IT IS GENERALLY unappreciated just how grave a threat confronts Spain's new democracy. Since the abortive military putsch of last February 23, civilian authority...
...Finally those involved in the incident were described as merely criminal elements engaged in an undertaking without political connections...
...The attempt was foiled by timely counter-measures of special anti-terrorist commando units...
...The government's response was to cover up and stonewall, shying away from any official confirmation of the known facts...
...The strategy also adds a measure of legitimation to the socialists as the future governing party...
...But the price of this respite has been high...
...The need for effective counter measures is therefore urgent...
...He did this because of military veto and because socialist entry would also have had a disruptive effect on his badly divided party...
...As UCD's prospects for electoral success continue to fade and those of PSOE grow more rosy, the chances for destabilizing actions to prevent holding of the election increase correspondingly...
...The government's energies are largely devoted to bolstering itself amidst continuing military discontent and unrestrainable acts of destabilization...
...Now more than ever a delicate balance must be maintained in directing the politically heterogeneous UCD...
...As an alternative the leaders of PSOE are presently engaged in a policy of "concentration" with the government on major issues that is perceived as strengthening the parliamentary system's viability without resorting to coalition government...
...Two recent incidents provide some indication of the extent to which civilian authority has been eroded...
...Both the center-right government and the opposition socialists recognize that the crises of the democratic regime that began with the storming of the parliament on February 23 will be decided in a definitive manner by the success or failure to permit an orderly transfer of power...
...that terminates in this month) to permit the continued presence of four American military bases in Spain...
...At this point the answer remains highly uncertain...
...The center-right government has placated military hardliners by giving the generals an increased ability to influence policy-making...
...Furthermore, the mood in Congress and the Office of Management and Budget favors a tightening up of what is perceived as the excessive largesse of the past...
...During May a group of armed men seized control of the Banco Central in mid-town Barcelona and held its several hundred occupants hostage...
...What makes the internal controversies so acrimonious is the currently dismal standing of UCD in voter preference polls and the soaring popularity of the socialists...
...Party conservatives are seeking control and also challenge the leadership on grounds of ideology and political strategy...
...The loyalty of many key figures remains wedded to Adolfo Suarez...
...For the U.S...
...Suarez remained on the sidelines of party affairs for a time but with the parliamentary elections of 1983 approaching he is presently engaged in a bruising contest with Calvo Sotelo for organizational control...
...In an effort to bolster its battered image the government has decided to press for early membership in NATO and to seek an accelerated admission date to the European Economic Community...
...The unions and employers have agreed to limit wage increases this year to 0-11 percent, appreciably below the current 16 percent inflationary rate...
...To make this happen the government must abandon its current mollycoddling of the military and police personnel who participated in the February 23 coup attempt and purge the armed forces of disloyal and subversive elements...
...As the details were made public, a national uproar ensued...
...Since the abortive military putsch of last February 23, civilian authority has weakened substantially...
...But the success of their exploit was quickly squandered through fumbling and contradictory explanations by government spokesmen regarding the motivations behind the bank seizure...
...The conclusion of a new agreement promises to be difficult...
...to accede to Spain's demands would establish precedents that would complicate reaching similar accords with other client nations such as Greece, Portugal, Turkey, etc...
...Leopoldo Calvo Sotelo's cup of woes is indeed filled to the overflowing...
...The country has recently been treated to the sorry spectacle of some thirty UCD deputies violating party discipline and siding with the opposition to assure the adoption of the version of a new divorce law that the government opposed...
...Felipe Gonzalez, the General Secretary of the Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), is now considered the country's most highly regarded political leader...
...The government has scored modest success on the economic front...
...It is a party gripped by ever-increasing disarray...
...Civil Guards had apparently taken them for suspected members of the Basque ETA terrorist guerrillas and decided to take the law into their own hands...
...Unemployment in Spain has gone beyond 13.5 percent, the highest in Europe, and continues to grow at an alarming pace...
...It is unlikely that the number of new jobs to be created can attain the pledged goal...
...Such a government offers a most inviting target for disruption from the extreme right and left...
...A clumsy attempt had been made to cover up the deed by contriving an auto accident...
...A recent poll has indicated that more Spaniards oppose NATO membership than those who favor it...
...As if grave institutional crisis, severe economic slump, simmering military discontent, and unchecked terrorism were not enough, his party, the governing Union of the Democratic Center (UCD), is also badly hobbled by bitter and divisive internal quarrels...
...But if it is not done the chances are quite high that the military will intervene to prevent the socialists from taking power...
...Joint Chiefs of Staff...
...But there is scant hope of harvesting much political capital from the new base accord...
...Proportionately, civilian authority has deteroriated, losing much of its effectiveness...
...Yet the strategic advantages accruing from Spain's accession to the Atlantic Alliance are modest at best...
...Employers and the government have pledged to stimulate investement and create 350,000 new jobs...
...As a consebenjamin MARTIN is Visiting Lecturer for Iberian Studies at the State Department's Foreign Service Institute...
...The parliamentary opposition demanded a special inquiry into the gruesome incident...
...But although it would have strengthened his government at a moment of great institutional peril, Calvo Sotelo rejected the offer...
...Moreover, the government's inept handling of the adulterated cooking-oil scandal that has already cost the lives of more than 120 and hospitalized 11,000, its expected defeat in regional elections in Galicia and Andalusia this month as well as continuing disarray within the UCD, could very well make necessary the calling of early elections sometime next year...
...All signs point to a fateful testing of the parliamentary regime's viability either prior to or following the elections that are to be held in early 1983...
...Were an election to be held soon PSOE would win by a landslide...
...A fragile balance has thus been struck since the coup attempt between supporters of constitutionalism and those who yearn for a return to Franco-style authoritarianism...
...The member nations of the Common Market had for various reasons heretofore decided to delay Spanish membership until 1984 or later instead of the originally planned entry by 1983...
...quence, most Spaniards are now convinced that the government has concealed the truth...
...Under political duress and growing unpopularity the latter had relinquished both the prime ministership and party leadership last January...
...Admittedly a very difficult task...
...Most European NATO members are merely hopeful that entry may enhance the stature of Spain's democratic government and mitigate authoritarian tendencies among the Spanish military...
...There is little evidence to suggest thus far that the government is capable of summoning the necessary will and courage to do this...
...This was then denied and Prime Minister Calvo Sotelo identified ultra-rightists as the culprits...
...Will Spain's wobbly democratic institutions stand the strain of this electoral showdown...
...The socialists as a consequence find themselves in a devilish predicament...
...For that reason the months ahead are going to be a time of mounting ordeal for this tension-ridden country.sion-ridden country...
...It is illustrative of the prevailing paralysis in the political life of the country...
...It is a prospect that fills with ardor only the Spanish government and the U.S...
...Painfully conscious of the situation the socialists first sought inclusion in a coalition government following the February coup attempt...
...The crucial question, therefore, is whether constitutionally mandated elections and a possible transfer of the reins of government are going to take place in 1983...
...They demanded air passage from Spain for themselves and the military officers implicated in the failed coup of February 23...
...As in similar circumstances since February 23 the opposition parties are reluctant to press this issue too vigorously for fear of further weakening the government and thus imperiling the beleaguered parliamentary structure...
...Not long thereafter three young men in the southern province of Almeria who had been detained by Civil Guards were found dead with tell-tale signs that they had been subjected to torture before being murdered...
...Current efforts to secure NATO membership coincide with negotiations to renew the agreement with the U.S...
...But entry into NATO will probably take place this year...
...Even so, the issue of NATO membership is domestically highly controversial...
...But, however laudatory, the new social contract is in fact more cosmetic than substantive...
...Named prime minister in February, Sotelo has in fact inherited the direction of a party over which he commands little control...
...Under military and police pressures, the government chose this ignominious way out, being ' 'persuaded'' that to prosecute the guilty parties would impugn the "honor" of the Civil Guard and lead to further problems with a police force that has been a fertile recruiting ground for anti-government and rightist plotters...
...First it was announced that members of the Civil Guard, the national police constabulary, were among the attackers...
...It is true that chances of another try at military takeover have diminished for the immediate future...
...For this reason the government has chosen to secure approval of NATO entry solely by means of a parliamentary vote...
...Hoping to extract maximum political advantage and to fend off criticism from the opposition socialists the government has sought extensive financial and technical concessions from the U.S...
Vol. 108 • October 1981 • No. 18
