The left comes closer

...Nevertheless, there remains a pervasive belief in a sinister force that ultimately determines all policy in Greece...

...He has promised to ask Karamanlis to call a referendum to decide whether Greece should remain in the Community and if so to demand renegotiation of the accession agreement...

...bases on Greek territory, he now says that there will be a transition period of indeterminate length and has seemed to link the fate of the bases on continued U.S...

...A PASOK victory next month would alter the tone and content of Greece's role in NATO and in the European Community...

...arms sales to Greece, a condition that should not be difficult for Washington to meet...

...acquiescence in the Turkish invasion of Cyprus), and allegations of weakness toward Turkey...

...In that regard, Papandreou's socialist colleagues in Western Europe - for example Mitterrand, whose victory PASOK has tried to exploit to enhance its own electoral prospects and who is said to be close to Papandreou - will be among the strongest advocates of prudence...

...In particular, it may encourage the people in one of NATO's more troubled democracies - Greece - to exchange their current moderate-conservative leaders for alternatives on the left when parliamentary elections are held on October 18...

...Karamanlis, who as president possesses sole power to call referenda, regards Greek membership in the Community as the crowning achievement of his career and will not likely agree to such a vote unless he is certain to win...

...Like the French, the Greeks have long expressed their desire for change, but the brutal civil war that ended in 1949 when the Western-backed royalist forces crushed the then powerful Communists left a profound fear among many Greeks of anything left of center...

...But despite Papandreou's attempt to cast a more moderate image, the lingering legacy of the civil war, almost four decades of virtually uninterrupted conservative rule, manipulation of the alleged leftist threat by some on the right, and the disastrous end of his father's government in the early 1960s have created a climate of apprehension toward the prospect of a PASOK government...

...Whether Papandreou will actually implement his hardline policies if elected is anybody's guess...

...For Karamanlis possesses formidable powers - the right to veto legislation, dissolve parliament and call elections and referenda - that he can use to temper Papandreou's policies if they become too extreme, a prospect that reassures many undecided voters who are disgruntled with New Democracy but distrust PASOK...

...He now only complains that the New Democracy government was not tough enough in negotiating the terms of entry...

...involvement in his country and Greece's reintegration into NATO, he has recently implied that, like France, Greece should remain in the Alliance for the time being but withdraw from its military arm...

...And most Western leaders will do everything they can to encourage Athens not to cast off from the West, as they realize the importance of Greece for the political and military cohesion of the Western world...

...Thus, when asked what they like about the opposition, many Greeks who plan to vote against Prime Minister George Rallis's government often stress their belief that PASOK will be "stronger" domestically and internationally but offer only a sketchy view of what that means...

...For the main Greek opposition party, the Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), advocates a strongly nationalist foreign policy for Greece and has called for total Greek withdrawal from NATO, pledged to close all U.S...

...The conservative New Democracy party, led by Karamanlis and stocked with politicians who had held office in the 1950s and early 1960s, has won both parliamentary elections held since then, in 1974 and 1977...

...became the colonels' most enthusiastic backer...

...Ronald Reagan, on his way back to Washington from the Ottawa summit, expressed pleasure at how much common ground existed between himself and the French president...

...Two years later, on April 21, 1967, a group of unknown colonels overthrew constitutional government in Greece...

...His dominance of his party is so complete that his close associates who are likely to occupy key posts in a PASOK government are virtually unknown...

...Karamanlis himself headed the government as prime minister until he stepped up to the presidency last year...

...government and the junta and now the reborn proclivity of Washington to support dictatorships in many places around the globe in the name of anti-communism have rekindled fears among many that the United States might not allow the left to gain power...

...and "Greece to the Greeks...

...Thus, to an extent both the result of the coming election and the extent of change if PASOK wins will hinge on the relationship between Papandreou and Karamanlis...

...Finally, Papandreou no longer assails his country's accession into the European Community...

...citizen, has an American wife, served in the U.S...

...However, then King Constantine and some conservative allies went out of their way of undermine Papandreou's authority and, aided by several defections from the prime minister's own supporters, eventually dissolved his government in a virtual palace coup...

...Americans would likely find that a shift to the left in Greece would also pose no threat to fundamental U.S...

...Moreover, the still fresh memory of the cozy relationship between the U.S...

...More important, in the last few years, as he has moved nearer to the seat of power, Papandreou has moderated his positions although he occasionally shows flashes of his old rhetoric...

...Paradoxically, the fact that Karamanlis will be president until May 1985 has improved the chances that Papandreou, the president's long-time political rival, will become prime minister this fall...

...LEIGH H. BRUCE (Leigh H. Bruce is the Assistant Editor o/Foreign Policy...

...Instead of promising immediately to close all U.S...

...Seven years of steady democratic rule, the accession of Greece into the European Community, Papandreou's assiduous courtship of the military, and the widespread view among serious observers that the military has no desire to become involved in politics after their disastrous experience in 1967-1974 have alleviated these fears somewhat...

...Karamanlis continues to enjoy widespread popularity, yet support for New Democracy has slipped steadily since 1974, to the point that PASOK is given at least an even chance of emerging from next month's elections as the largest party...

...Several factors have contributed to New Democracy's slippage: an inflation rate that has accelerated to over 25 percent, an annual rate of economic growth that has fallen to an anemic 1.5 percent, a rising trade deficit exacerbated by the 37 percent devaluation of the drachma against the dollar in the last fifteen months, a declining quality of life in urban areas, the controversial decision to rejoin the military arm of NATO last October (Greece withdrew in 1974 to protest what it considered the U.S...

...When the junta collapsed in 1974, current President Constantine Karamanlis, who had served as prime minister for almost a decade until 1963, returned to Greece from self-exile in Paris to take over the government and restore democracy...

...bases on Greek territory, and opposed Greek accession into the European Community...

...A PASOK victory would also represent a remarkable sea-change in Greek politics...

...Two of his principal slogans are "Who rules Greece...

...Moreover, Papandreou will be under strong domestic and foreign pressure not to stray too far from the foreign policy line established by his predecessors...

...A broad consensus on foreign policy issues has emerged in Greece for the first time in this century...

...navy, and taught economics at the University of Minnesota and at Berkeley before returning to Greece in' 1959 - has made anti-Americanism the centerpiece of his political program since the downfall of his father's government and the 1967 military coup...

...But a more palpable, less easily quantifiable factor is the sense among many Greeks that the same people have simply governed too long, and that things will deteriorate further unless new, more forceful leaders are found...

...Despite some righteous rhetoric from Washington, the U.S...

...Papandreou - who was once a U.S...

...or o/Foreign Policy...

...Although the next Greek prime minister - whether Rallis or Papandreou - will possess great flexibility in setting individual policies, he will have to operate within the bounds of that consensus...

...Appropriately, the person who will become prime minister if the left wins next fall is PASOK leader Andreas Papandreou, the former prime minister's son...

...He runs PASOK with an iron hand...

...The current conventional wisdom is that neither New Democracy nor PASOK will succeed in winning a large enough majority to govern for long and that a second trip to the polls may soon be necessary...

...A center-left coalition, led by late Prime Minister George Papandreou, did succeed in wresting power from the conservatives in 1963 and, after a clear electoral victory, in 1964-1965...

...Thus, while he continues to attack past U.S...

...That will depend in part on the size of the majority he takes office with...

...interests, even if it initially eliminated the elements of predictability and reliability that now exist in U.S.-Greek relations and resulted in changes that might not be popular in Washington...

...policy-making circles...

...That feeling was recently reinforced by an epidemic of fires around Greece that many believe was the work of politically-motivated, right-wing arsonists...

...If Washington viewed the election of French President Francois Mitterrand with somewhat jaundiced resignation, a socialist victory in Greece will likely cause deep anxiety in U.S...

...It revolves around a renewed sense of nationalism, a determination to maintain the country's independence and to protect the integrity of its democratic institutions, and a belief that the economic, political, and military future of Greece lies with the West...