Democracy or dictatorship

...In a recent opinion survey among high school and university students, only a tiny percentage of those queried could identify Getulio Vargas, Brazil's charismatic president (1930-45 and again 1951-4...

...Figueiredo insists that a small number of "terrorists and subversives" be excluded from his amnesty proposal and labeled common criminals rather than political prisoners...

...If this forecast appears too hybrid and messy to satisfy those devoted to pure models, so be it...

...Among the government's old political enemies now returning to Brazil are such diverse personalities as: Leonel Brizola, former governor of Rio Grande do Sul, deputy from the (now extinct) state of Guanabara and brother-in-law of deposed President Joao Goulart...

...Uncertainties are compounded because a whole generation of Brazilian youthsince 1964 has been politically castrated and possesses little capacity to think creatively in the public forum...

...A more probable outcome, in my view, is some hybrid of the first two scenarios...

...Legally, however, an indult Commonweal: 238 places the individuals in question on parole: the government remains judge of the extent to which they can return to normal political activity...

...Singer projects that political contours would be marked by continued military control over the choice of state governors and that opposition forces would be given a voice but not power, and lesser electoral offices would continue to depend on the federal presidency...

...Price stability and balance of payments would be relegated to a secondary plane, unless inflation and/or balance-of-payments deficits got out of hand...

...moreover, the state lacks the resource base and independent capacity to enforce its will against the federal government...

...It is significant that privileged upper and middle classes, many of whom are now earning more money than ever before, also feel insecure...

...I doubt that the military will accept complete political disenfranchisement even if it returns power to civilian hands...

...As for Rio de Janeiro state, it too is unable to defend itself against federal encroachments...

...Paulo Freire, radical pedagogue of popular liberation...

...The president seeks to defuse criticism and maintain leverage by suggesting that, at some later date, he may grant an indult to the excluded prisoners...

...Figueiredo also hopes to please the grumbling middle and upper classes by promising to cancel the monetary deposit (approximately $1,000 interestfree and frozen for one year) required of travelers leaving the country...

...that it was "delivering the economic goods" to the nation, even though the poorest masses were suffering greatly...

...External debts would be liquidated...

...As it turns out, however, only a small number of persons are excluded from hisoffer, though exactly how many is a matter of dispute...

...and Francisco Juliao, founder of Northeast Brazil's Peasant Leagues...

...CHOICES FOR BRAZIL-I Democracy or dictatorship DENIS GOULET A year ago, when Joao Baptista de Oliveira Figueiredo, a former director of Brazil's National Intelligence Service, became the fifth general to wear the presidential mantle since the coup of March 31, 1964, he vowed to speed up the process of political "decompression...

...Foreign policy would be militantly pro-Third World and Brazil would seek economic integration with other (preferably Latin American) countries in order to weaken U.S., European, and Japanese competitors...

...In December alone the price of oil rose fifty-two percent and that of electricity fifty-three percent...

...Recent changes in Brazil's political landscape give opposition groups hope that in fact, once underway,' 'decompression'' may escape the military's intention to keep it under tight control...

...The opposition is heterogeneous, comprising several factions within die MDB, a large industrial labor union movement, dissident Christian bodies (some 35 percent of Brazilian bishops and over three thousand grass-roots community organizations known as '' comunidades de base"), growing sectors of the business and professional classes, and most of the artistic and journalistic communities...

...Enough older politicians and intellectuals survive, however, to help the Left make the present transition...

...And because it is losing the battle to contain galloping inflation, the government is relaxing censorship...

...A major weapon in the government's war on the opposition is its bill to reconstitute multiple political parties...

...Mobilization in Rio Grande do Sul does not engage all sectors of the society...

...The chief aims of economic policy would be: to reinforce Brazil's competitive stance in the face of multinational competitors, to redistribute income, and to maximize growth...

...Figueiredo's advisers are gambling that old political leaders will generate turmoil as they struggle to rally their former clienteles around their names...

...A second possibility, he argues, is the "democraticpopulist" scenario...

...Oil dependency is a special problem...

...Singer's third scenario is democratic socialism, with power . held by an amalgam of working-class parties drawing support from non-party groups such as religious movements, unions, cooperatives, and discriminated minorities...

...Many Brazilian commentators regard Delfim Netto, the new Minister of Planning and a native of Sao Paulo, as the strongest potential civilian presidential aspirant, although some military men distrust him, and his electoral ambitions (never avowed) are being openly undermined by Sao Paulo's governor, Paulo Maluf...

...Marcio Moreira Alves, former journalist and congressman...

...Dissident leaders continue to return home after 15 years of enforced exile...

...To answer the initial question—will democracy gain sway, or will the dictatorship only be refined?—I think democracy has the better chance...

...Others, like Celso Furtado, the world-renowned economist and former director of the Northeast Development Agency, have been free to visit Brazil in the past, but have now resumed an active role in public affairs...

...All observers identify Sao Paulo state as the nation's undisputed political nerve center...

...Brazil's political salvation rests heavily on this older generation, although its ranks have obviously been reinforced by younger leaders like Marcos Freire, "Lula," Fernando Cardoso, and Jarbas Vasconcellos...

...The central question of course is, will the transition now in progress lead to a true democratization of the political process, or only to refinement of the dictatorship...

...Censorship of the press has been almost totally lifted...

...They fear he will revert to "Brizolismo," that is, to demagogic manipulation of labor support, not around constructive programs, but around the building up of his own personal influence...

...Congress has raised objections, however, and at this writing the issue is still pending...

...Brizola is trying to recapture his former PTB (Brazilian Workers' Party) clientele, but many Brazilian analysts doubt whether he can become a constructive political force...

...Figueiredo clearly hopes that by creating multiple parties and allowing old labor politicians to return, the labor opposition will be rent asunder...

...It is the only state with enough resources to achieve its goals without depending heavily on federal funding...

...All know they must act prudently to avoid fragmentation and to buy time to forge new alliances which can be programmatically viable and electorally efficient by appealing to large numbers of citizens grown politically apathetic since 1964...

...In late November the Figueiredo regime abolished ARENA and MDB and set ground rules for the creation of new parties...

...More importantly, the state possesses great civic spirit: the area as a whole defends itself by mobilizing press, business, students, unions, church groups, and local politicians against federal encroachments...

...Owing to its national leadership and status as a former capital, it has always - lived under closer military surveillance than that imposed on other states...

...Moreover, civilian rule based on the coalitions described in the second option would necessarily entail considerable income redistribution, heightened nationalism in economic and political affairs, and considerable change in Brazil's social structure as well...

...Owned by Daniel Ludwig, a legendary 83year-old American billionaire, Jari straddles the state of Para and the Territory of Amapa, covering 37,000 square kilometers, an area larger than Belgium or the Netherlands...

...In too many Latin American countries we have witnessed, to quote one Argentine sociologist, "a permanent political tie-game no matter how many overtimes are played...

...Until 1974 the dictatorship neutralized critics by arguing DENIS GOULET, O'Neill Professor in Education for Justice at the University of Notre Dame, has written widely on the ethics of development and done extensive fieldwork in Latin America, Africa and Asia...

...Under this hypothesis, even officers of the armed forces would be elected and advised by appointed experts, and far-reaching decentralization of power would rest on generalized self-management of communes, enterprises, schools, hospitals, and churches...

...Even Brazil, with all its economic dynamism and political sophistication, is not immune to this destiny...

...Economic policy would em25 April 1980:239 phasize raising general levels of consumption of basic goods, reducing the time spent in non-creative work, allowing all workers to perform intellectual tasks, and sharing in all levels of decision-making...

...Many of the immediate issues as well as the general problems of Brazilian political life can best be seen against the background of this delicate navigational effort...

...Amnesty is another issue around which the government seeks to divide the opposition...

...Ironically, it is the government itself which dissolved all prior political parties and, in 1966, created a dual structure to take their place: ARENA (Alliance for National Renewal), the official government party, and the MDB (Brazilian Movement for Democracy), meant to be a powerless window-dressing opposition party...

...The exercise of the veto will be all the more tempting to the military to the degree that measures taken by a democratic-populist government appear too "socialist" in nature...

...And many observers think that the government grants only partial amnesty so as to mollify hardliners within its own ranks...

...How the working classes will define their political allegiances is complicated by the return and political re-emergence of Leonel Brizola...

...Brazil's political evolution will depend largely on its labor movement leaders...

...Amnesty is to be extended to most persons whose political rights had been stripped since 1964...

...in political science from the University of Sao Paulo in 1963...

...For many years, however, it will be a timid democracy saddled with a residual military veto power over normal political processes...

...What turn will Brazilian politics take in the near future...

...These are settings in which competing political actors are strong enough to prevent others from ruling, but too weak to rule themselves or to impose their programs...

...Miguel Arraes, ex-governor of Pernambuco...

...When public criticism of working conditions mounted, however, the company tightened supervision over labor contractors supplying workers from neighboring states...

...The regime has no reason to fear the release of a few "subversives" on national security grounds, but it needs to score political points over its critics...

...Visible benefits take the form, among others, of 750 tons of cellulose daily...

...If this happens, Brazil's integration to global capitalism will become more pronounced and the nation's main economic goals will become: to maximize growth (with little regard for equity), to stabilize prices, to balance payments, and to accumulate private capital...

...The ultimate character of "decompression" also depends on the political initiatives coming from the different regions...

...Nevertheless, historical accidents, both outside and within Brazil, might unexpectedly create pre-revolutionary conditions in which Brazil's majorities would rally behind radical systemic change...

...Some $700-800 million (U.S...

...Power would rest with a coalition of reconstituted political parties, labor unions, intellectuals, and technocrats (including progressive military) based on electoral majorities backed up by the armed forces...

...Jari is, manifestly, an' 'imperial'' enclave accused by restless nationalists of diluting Brazil's economic sovereignty and of' 'exploiting'' resources for the benefit of outsiders...

...And many in the business community are turning against the very government they long backed as their bulwark against labor unrest, ideological subversion, and assaults upon their economic privileges...

...The new plan, in any case, is designed to split the opposition and to entice moderate opposition elements to pass over to government ranks...

...policy toward the Third World or the Soviet Union...

...To evoke Kenneth Boulding's image, Brazil may already have "missed the socialist bus" because, to switch metaphors, too much water has flowed over capitalist dams since 1964 to render a socialist model highly plausible...

...As the Amazon's largest employer, the Jari Project provides jobs to some 10,000 workers...

...They fret over the nation's increasing vulnerability to external forces which the government cannot control: inflation and uncertainties in global markets, oil dependency, political upheavals in other countries, and the unpredictable effect on Latin America of alterations in U.S...

...The opposition's strategy, in turn, is to defuse the government's cooptation efforts and to press for free state elections in 1982 and a presidential vote in 198S...

...This is a capacity which Rio Grande do Sul lacks, notwithstanding its traditional ability to organize politically in the defense of state interests...

...Will it undermine Brazil's capacity to exercise sovereign control over its own economic resources...

...Commonweal: 240...

...He received his Ph.D...

...I regard Singer's first two scenarios as far more realistic than the third...

...Like the government, Brazil's privileged classes worry about just how far "decompression" can be controlled...

...greater tolerance is the minimum concession it must make to an impatient public...

...In fourteen years Ludwig has built several new cities (including one with 10,000 inhabitants), hydro-electric plants and cellulose factories assembled in Japan and towed to the Amazon, mines, ports, railroads (46 kilometers), roads (4,800 kilometers), beef cattle and buffalo ranches, forests, and farms (mainly rice—with an annual production of 140,000 tons...

...It can no longer make this claim, however foreign indebtedness, huge trade imbalances, and rising inflation place the government on shaky ground even in purely economic terms...

...or 5 percent of Brazil's annual export figure, have been invested...

...Brazil's military rulers are even willing to return the country to civilian rule provided they can guide the transition toward the choice of "safe" politicians...

...Luis Carlos Prestes, aging leader of the Brazilian Communist party...

...The first, or "military-technocratic" option, assumes that the present stewards of political power will remain in the saddle for the next two decades...

...Central decision-making would emanate from directly elected councils with local power exercised by direct participation in assemblies...

...One union leader has emerged as a strong political force: Luis Inacio da Silva, better known as "Lula" and President of the Metalworkers' Union of Sao Bernardo do Campo in Sao Paulo state...

...The elimination of unemployment, idle capacity, and resource waste would become subordinate aims...

...In a study published last November by the International Foundation for Development Alternatives, the Sao Paulo sociologist Paulo Singer offers three alternative political scenarios for the next twenty years...

...Another topic of heated national debate is the danger posed by foreign investment...

...The most disturbing case in point is the "Jari Project" in the Amazon Region...

...Brazil imports 960,000 barrels of oil daily which, added to .domestic production of 180,000 barrels is, in the words of Almeida Costa, President of the National Petroleum Council, "barely enough to meet current demands...

...Student organizations, labor unions, and opposition church groups now act with little fear of government reprisals...

...More importantly, Rio possesses few resources of its own, has no independent university, and only a small and poor agricultural hinterland...

...Delfim Netto also lacks a broad base of political support, having made many enemies in his previous stint as a "technocratic" finance minister...

...The regime searches frantically for ways to chart a narrow course between excessive repression which would merely strengthen the opposition 25 April 1980: 237 and, conversely, too much tolerance which would allow the opposition to wrest power from its hands...

...For Celso Furtado limited amnesty is age discrimination against those who, in the dictatorship's later years, had no choice but to take up arms against repression since all other avenues to express dissent had been blocked by the government...