SALT: a Pacific view

...The issue of whether the SALT II accords should be ratified by the Senate occupies center stage, not only in the Senate itself but to a considerable degree in the country as a whole...

...The Indonesians express less concern about Hanoi...

...It does not demand that it be the.only objective, even in the nuclear era...

...Several points stand out...

...IVEN THE FACT that SALT II is almost automatically aclgl cepted as a "good thing," any suggestion before these audiences that the treaty faced potential rejection in the United States Senate was greeted with something approaching shock...

...SALT may present the American people with a lot of confusing aspects...

...10016 | a l a II t Pleas~ send Commonweal for one year at $20 for the first sulmcrlp- | : tions, $15 for each additional, to: ] | Name 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . n a | | I a Address . . . . . . . . . . . . . " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e m II W 9 City, State, Zip . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | , : Send gift card to me VI for me CI Renewal [] 9 I II r...

...On the other hand as a practical matter we know that the Americans and Russians are basically concerned with each other and aren't much interested in our opinions or needs...

...When I answered candidly that I wasn't aware of any significant role, he nodded and smiled a bit cynically, evidently anticipating that would be the answer...

...The point to be made, again, would be that we cannot accept a treaty which allows the Soviets weapons which enable them to threaten a significant element of our deterrent force, but that we are ready to enter into serious negotiations as soon as they indicate a willingness to abandon such weapons, and such a strategy...

...Speaking before a very able group of faculty and students at Monash University in Canberra, I went through a short summary of warheads, megatonnage, throw-weight, strategic launchers and so forth in the arsenals of two superpowers...

...One impression garnered from these sessions that perhaps we in the United States ought to weigh is the uneasy feeling that to the extent the SALT talks succeed, the outlines of what has been called a Soviet-American "condominium" become more of a possibility...

...There probably aren't that many Americans who really understand the enormous destructive power on which SALT II is designed to place some curbs...

...If the SALT talks are conceded to have general international importance, it still remains, of course, that for these countries their most immediate security concerns are 9ften pretty far removed from the question Of the Soviet-American strategic nuclear balance...

...With the exception of a group of academic strategic analysts at Australian National University, and another group from the New Zealand Defense Ministry, there was little awareness of just how awesome the nuclear arms situation really has become...

...China remains the great actual or potential threat despite AmericanChinese normalization...

...Participating in these sessions were high-ranking military officers, members of Parliament, foreign ministry officials, journalists, and academics as well as simply what might be called "concerned citizens...

...When I said I didn't think OMEGA had any re~levance to SALT--which this lady strongly supported--she sighed contentedly and said, "Oh, good, then I can go on fighting like mad against their completing this thing...

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...The Filipinos worry about domestic insurgent movements and the implications for ASEAN and the Southeast Asian balance generally of recent Vietnamese military activity...

...This somewhat melancholy approach was perhaps best caught in a question raised by a Liberal Party M.P...

...In the questions that developed during the lecture period and in informal discussions afterwards I was presented with an interesting and in some ways strikingly different perspective on SALT from that | i A. GARRETT is Director of International Policy Studies at the Monterey Institute of lnlernational Studies in California...

...A directly opposite concern, on the other hand, is that the superpowers will not moderate their nuclear rivalry, thus making a future nuclear confrontation more likely...

...Even for staunch allies like the Filipinos or the Aussies such a prospect is regarded with considerable misgiving...

...1 i i ($2 per sub...

...Neither in previous eras or now does it demand that we put ourselves at the mercy of the ruthless...

...SALT II specifically received a virtually unanimous vote of confidence...

...With the possible exception of discussion of our NATO allies and the People's Republic of China, however, there has been relatively little written in this country as to how other nations of importance to the United States actually view the SALT II treaty...

...There were frequent remonstrations that "of course" the Senate would eventually meet its responsibilities, but when I remained dubious about the prospects the astonishment was perceptible...

...It is perhaps inevitable that the SALT debate as conducted in the United States so far has been rather ethnocentric, as if the one issue that really mattered was how SALT II would affect the overall American position vis-a-vis the Soviet Union...

...Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once observed, u I "Whenever peace--conceived as the avoidance of war--has been the primary objective of a power.., the international system has been at the mercy of the most ruthless member of the international community...

...in Melbourne who asked what role Australia had played in the SALT negotiations...

...It must do for him what he didn't have the courage to do for himself...

...Christian social teaching demands that peace be an important objective of states...

...Many in the country oppose it vehemently because of their concern that it may involve Australia in some future Soviet-American confrontation, i.e., providing a target for an unfriendly Soviet missile...

...It does not claim that the existence of nuclear weapons negates the long-declared right of states to act for their own defense...

...which we may have in the United States...

...g wqtm i m i ~a mi m m mql I ~ m mwqlwma m m a ~ m m m u m atmmm m mmlm m ~1 a d a II COMMONWEAL 212-MU3-2042 t 232 Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y...

...Both Australia and New .Zealand are currently going through various degrees of agonizing reappraisal as to whether, given their meager resources, they can really make any significant contribution to their own defense...

...There was a lusty round of applause as she sat down...

...Moreover, unlike the stance taken by many in the United States, there was a propensity to accept almost as a matter of faith that the Carter administration would not have agreed to SALT II unless it was convinced that it was a reasonable agreement and more specifically was verifiable...

...If the treaty, for instance, helps to reduce the danger of general nuclear war, this is of interest to all...

...But the point is that there may be even less comprehension of the nuclear realities amongst those who because of their close ties to the United States stand to be heavily affected by Soviet and American decisions on nuclear weapons...

...All we can hope is that Carter knows what he's doing...

...This support for SALT II, however, seemed at times to be somewhat ritualistic, rather like an expression of confidence in motherhood and apple pie...

...For all four countries, moreover, there are two other conterns currently receiving much attention: the implications of a potential wider military role for Japan in the region (which some in the American government are pushing but which is understandably a sensitive matter for these peoples, given COMMONWEAL: A Christmas gift that thinks, talks, listens and entertains Friends whom you might have given .Commonweal last Christmas would have enjoyed such features as: Jim Morrell on Our Phih'ppine Colony John Garvey on Celibacy Mary Jo Weaver on Singleness Saul Maloff on Philip Roth Joseph O'Donoghue on Social Security The Special Issue on John Paul H Richard J. Krickus on The Limits of Superpowers Anna Maria Murdoch on Mythology and Motherhood John Jay Hughes on The Leadership We Need Lawrence S. Cunningham on Wallace Stevens Such articles plus the many others, editorials, personal columns and reviews provide an abundance et good reading all year long in this widely quoted biweekly...

...The SALT talks then are in effect something of an abstracCommonweal: 688tion for these countries...

...One experience stands out...

...for postage outside U.S...

...In other words, a world in which the superpowers solve their basic bilateral differences and in doing so tacitly agree on a diversion of power and influence throughout the rest of the globe...

...She asked whether the OMEGA site was relevant to the verification of SALT...

...In both Australia and New Zealand today there are powerful forces on the left of the political spectrum who are arguing that the previous close security link with the United States ought to be modified to the extent that it involves the potential use of nuclear weapons to "protect" their country's national security...

...How abstract they are was brought home by the rather surprising lack of basic knowledge about the strategic nuclear balance between the United States and the Soviet Union and especially the actual terms of the SALT II accord...

...The U.S...

...Maybe this should not be a matter of surprise...

...o a P a c i f i c view STEPHEN A. GARRE W E ARE NOW in the midst of one of the most seminal foreign policy debates of the century...

...OMEGA is a communications and satellite-tracking station currently being constructed by the United States in central Australia...

...A discussion of the intricate political background to the ratification debate, e.g., the awkward position of Senator Baker of Tennessee given his presidential ambitions, the fading clout generally of the Carter administration in Congress, was received in rapt attention, as if I were discussing the arcane behavioral patterns of some previously unknown tribe...

...Senate, in other words, must tell our president that his instincts as of 1977 were right...

...The attitude was that it might not be a panacea for all the world's ills, but it was certainly better than nothing...

...This perspective might be considered particularly instructive since three out of the four countries visited are formal allies of the United States and the other, Indonesia, currrnfly maintains fairly close relations with Washington even in the absence of formal security ties...

...The attitude expressed might be summarized as follows: "Certainly we know that controlling nuclear arms is important...

...Indeed one impression emerging very strongly out of these sessions was that rejection by the Senate had hardly been considered as a possibility...

...The Labor Party in New Zealand has in fact officially adopted a proposal to create a nuclear-free zone throughout the South Pacific, including New Zealand...

...With very few exceptions there was strong support for American attempts at achieving a strategic arms control agreement with the Soviet Union...

...Even if he doesn't, there's not much we could do about it...

...Canada) 9 'o 12nn9 9 |a0"m m am at at m m am m m m i m i m at am g m a e m m m i m w ml m i m i i w i w m e t m ~ 7 December 1979:689Japan's past record), and the potential threat a growing Soviet naval presence represents to shipping lanes in the Far East...

...a Name . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | ' 1 | | Address . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 o , , . , . . . . . . . | | | a S~nd gift card to me [] for me [] Renewal O / | m # B . | e MY NAME . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . it | Address . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ | 9 | City, State, Zip . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 | I | $ . . . . . . . . . . enclosed [] Bill me after Jan...

...Given the dependence of each country on trade, this is a genuinely worrisome matter and in fact is seen as much more of an immediate security problem than Moscow's vaunted nuclear might...

...In these circumstances the issue becomes whether America's allies would want to be in the middle of the crunch...

...The uncertainties and contradictory feelings about the Soviet-American nuclear arms rivalry, however, are not confined to our own shores...

...The fact is that audiences in all four countries clearly felt themselves to be almost totally irrelevant to the actual SALT process...

...During a recent tour of the Philippines, Indonesia, Australia, and New Zealand I had occasion to lecture on security matters generally and SALT more specifically before a wide variety of audiences (the lectures were sponsored by the United States International Communication Agency...

...In reality, of course, the SALT negotiations impact to a greater or lesser degree on every nation in the global system...

...The ambiguity that one observes toward the American connection even as there is general support for the SALT treaty was perhaps symbolized by the comment of one crusty old Labor Party dowager in Melbourne...

...The reaction was stunned silence and expressions of disbelief...

...ISsALT:REjECTION REALLY POSSIBLE...

...In New Zealand, for instance, a current cause c~l~bre is whether American nuclear-powered ships ought to be allowed into New Zealand ports (the controversy has been spurred by the Pentagon's admission it has restricted the entry of such ships into New York harbor...