Spain takes a constitutional:
Martin, Benjamin
Said Shirley Chisholm. "We believe that this was a long time rhetoric. this President is a master of knowing the power of in coming and that we have a natural affinity in our needs and ...
...Moncloa" meant abandoning their hazardous and tenuous passage to democratic rule...
...under the control of the PCE produced an increased popular preoccupation with law and and the Socialist-linked General Union of Workers (UGT...
...affording Spain low levels of political either the UCD or PSOE garnering an effective majority of the controversy and social unrest...
...Not very long ago a senior aide to Cardinal Tarancon...
...there may be a reassessment One gets the impression that, like no other recent Demo- of this development...
...UCD may possess ,equally impressive...
...Despite their misgivings...
...considered authoritarianism too deeply entrenched for a 1977 parliamentary election had two aims: preside over the return to democracy to take place without a prolonged period country while a new constitution embodying the basic norms of turbulence and violence...
...Suarez probably had little alternative, for an election at this But the possibly adverse consequences of such a union are time is an exceedingly risky undertaking...
...The accords have been zealously upheld with with the result that UCD won 47 percent of the seats in the Carrillo publicly claiming, with some justification, to be one Congress of Deputies with only 34 percent of the vote...
...public life today...
...A further complicatwage controls and other austerity measures...
...By scheduling the Parliamentary vote a month nomic difficulties confronting the country...
...Municipal elections remain set for early April...
...Sup- effort to reverse present trends...
...he hopes thereby to cut his losses the Socialists an opportunity for gaining experience in running in the Municipals...
...it showed that only when really shoved-a then cheerfully proceed...
...Furthermore, the price the Popular Basque provinces, however, abstained in massive numbers to Alliance would exact for its support could make such a collabunderscore their dissatisfaction with Madrid's terms for re- oration unmanageable...
...The moderate left vote is crucial to and other regions (though many in the Basque region remain the political fortunes of both parties...
...The most likely outcome at this writing is a close contest in This issue lists, on pages 30 and 31, the names of 288 which neither of the two parties will emerge with sufficient Commonweal Associates, individuals who volunteer parliamentary seats to constitute a one-party government...
...It would also afford earlier and emerging on top...
...elections the port of the Moncloa Pact provided an excellent opportunity to UCD was able to impose an electoral system that favored the advance the legitimation of his party and lend credence to the rural areas and small towns where UCD strength is greatest and Communist Party's (PCE) claim to a democratic and construc- under-represented the cities, where the Socialists predominate tive vocation...
...Furthermore, voter behavior in recent years the CC.OO...
...Commonweal: 14...
...steered the ship of state during the For the Socialists...
...might launch a campaign of militant opposition to has tended to be fluid and highly volatile...
...heads for a time of difficult political decisions and a crucial But it was not possible for a government lacking a parliatesting of the viability of its fledgling democratic structure...
...particularly the disadvantaged anger...
...against 29 percent for PSOE), making it the third largest in the The formation of such a government would also have a Cortes...
...P OST-FRANCO Spain's evolution has confounded the di- The center-right government of Suarez's Democratic Center rect predictions of most specialists and politicians who Union Party (UCD) which took office following the June...
...ing factor is a growing disenchantment among many voters with politics...
...When the President spoke to the delegates...
...For the time being at least, this seems to have Union Confederation (CC.OO...
...In the June...
...It avoids tradi- flatly rejected the siren calls from the right for he realizes that tionally divisive issues through the employment of purposely to embrace such a stratagem might lead to a loss of support vague circumlocutious language...
...The parties of the left understood that this could be themselves to a consensus approach and support for a program accomplished only if the King's man...
...PCE during the thirties...
...As before, he can count on valuable technical Similarly a Socialist presence in the government might render and political assistance from the powerful West German Social its left flank vulnerable to inroads by the PCE...
...Battles of ideas and policy are still taking cratic presidency, the Carter administration remains strong not place within the Democratic party...
...the country...
...coalition would polarize the country, tend to confer a rightist 6th referendum demonstrated strong support for the new dem- image on UCD and possibly contribute to the formation of a ocratic constitution (87.8 percent voted "yes...
...POLITICAL VIRTUOSITY Spain takes a constitutional BENJAMIN MARTIN had the wisdom to recognize their lack of background...
...But the government can count on impressive advantages...
...reinforced by the lengthy negotiations between the various The AP obtained 8 percent of the vote in the June elections and political leaderships in the drafting of a new constitution...
...Following the adoption of the Constitution two crucial elec- could trigger a dangerous crisis for the still nascent democratic toral contests are now set whose outcome could very well structure, one whose outcome it is difficult to anticipate...
...mind but, willfully or not, he encouraged the diffusion of When the American public...
...to contribute between $50 and $500 annually toward the Should UCD win a plurality and be chosen to head the new support of the magazine...
...Santiago Carrillo and other key party 9 January 1979: 13 figures are men of the civil war generation...
...an adminis- was a disappointment...
...But CC.OO...
...unless carefully managed...
...Adolfo Suarez...
...And is politically and ideologically invincible...
...Communist leader Santiago Carrillo is rightfully ernment machinery which he can mobilize in a large-scale regarded as an outstandingly astute and clever tactician...
...PSOE must also Democratic party...
...and Western European governments are urging accomplishment of the transition process is widely acknowl- Spain to join NATO...
...are opposed...
...The economy has consequently Parliament seats...
...This could energize the political right,'in disarray since the end magnetic and probably the most effective public orator in of Francoism, and stimulate present efforts at regroupment...
...suggests that UCD possesses a marked edge...
...Felipe Gonzalez has already amply demonwhich could result in the loss of conservative support for UCD...
...If not a master of no amount of liberal-baiting will contradict that fact...
...A part of the 7.5 percent "no" vote is attributable to the resent a major departure from the present relation of political active opposition of conservatives in the church led by Cardi- forces and a ceding of power for the first time in four decades nal Primate Gonzalez and eight bishops...
...An understanding especially King Juan Carlos and Prime Minister Adolfo between the major political forces was required-most imporSuarez-and of the two principal parties of the left...
...This administration is not Young and Walter Mondale, at least from the left the President going to offer even small benefits to the disenfranchised...
...and that if we are united we can go farther...
...The tantly with the Socialist Workers Party (PSOE)-since the two government's transition strategy called for a continuance of parties together control more than three-quarters of the seats in power once elections were held by easing in democracy while the Cortes...
...He has chosen instead gional parties of Catalonia and the Basque region and induce to dissolve Parliament and schedule new elections for March the defection of the Social Democratic sector of UCD...
...A PSOE electoral victory would reptics...
...A church hierarchy maintained a position of neutrality...
...center right is in a position to reimpose such a weighted voting system in the next election as well...
...O NE WAY out of the present situation would be the estab- The decision by Suarez to select March I st as the election lishment of a UCD-PSOE government...
...gional autonomy...
...Well over a hundred new names government, unless it can persuade the Socialists to particiare on the list this year...
...Nonetheless, the ment, an economic slump and a corresponding increase in the Socialists are likely to seek some sort of accommodation with number of PSOE voters...
...edged...
...The Socialist carefully weigh the dangers involved in possibly compromisstrategy for attaining power...
...losing...
...1977...
...underscored by the prodissatisfied) and its compatible applicability to governments of posal earlier in 1978 of Felipe Gonzalez for PSOE to abandon the center right or the left...
...It is worth recalling that the pollsters' unpopular measures is unlikely without prior accommodation predictions on the eve of the June 15, 1977 elections were not with the Communist Party...
...have to be high expectations...
...its identification as a Marxist party...
...In the absence of a modus vivendi terribly accurate...
...economi, recession requiring a persisting policy of belt tight- It is unclear, however, whether this change in the popular ening and wage restraint...
...Socialists are expected to would extend the climate of consensus and give the govern- gain control of many large city mayoralties in the forthcoming ment a freer hand in dealing with the grave social and eco- April elections...
...political change of this magnitude...
...This represents a Should PSOE emerge first in the next elections but fall short substantial change since the polls during most of 1978 reof a parliamentary majority, it is doubtful that the Communists flected a loss of UCD support as a result of rising unemploywould participate in a governing coalition...
...Furthermore, the PCE's positive contribution to the successful Both the U.S...
...Also there is a observed that the governing party is essentially "a machine to lingering resentment over the repressive, divisive role of the win elections...
...Essentially, the Democratic paty at this time has betrayed later, when one sees him standing with Coretta King, Andy some of its best traditional goals...
...few stirred...
...fortunes of the two parties and their ability to prevent their rivalry from reaching destructive proportions...
...Spain is fortunate to possess moderate...
...A decition with Carrillo's party...
...experience...
...He also fears that such a Despite a lower participation rate than expected, the Dec...
...This rivalry has impelled tion of 12 groups possessing markedly divergent ideologies the PCE to work for a continuance of the present center-right and backgrounds...
...It is truly impossible to say that for liberals this convention Indirectly, it seems as if Chairman John White...
...DURING the past year all parties have largely adhered to the Barring unforeseeable developments, the odds are against consensual accords...
...Voters in the Popular Front on the left...
...order, a development that tends to favor right-of-center parties A Socialist government would take office during a period of and disfavor the left...
...Without all the Associates' help pate, the prospects for the establishment of a strong governthe magazine could neither survive nor-equally impor- ment will be exceedingly poor...
...The bulk of the to a party long in the forefront of the anti-Franco struggle...
...They also normal opposition role and accepting what in effect amounted to a political armed truce...
...In a country where political agility is practiced as a refined Suarez has at his disposal a vast, still highly centralized govart form...
...Suarez has thus far as "an articulated ensemble of concessions...
...The Socialists, however...
...For this reason alternatives are being benefited from a successful program of wage controls which weighed: had the support of the two principal labor bodies that are linked The formation of a coalition with the conservative Popular with the PCE and PSOE...
...mentary majority to assume the unilateral management of the The tranquil changeover thus far has been largely due to the transition process and the country's lagging economy as well political virtuosity and skills of both the government- as the drafting of the new constitution...
...This troubled region, to quote the Socialist leader Felipe Gonzalez is confronted by equally Economist, "remains the awkward customer of Spanish poli- nettlesome alternatives...
...It is expected to do slightly better in the next elections...
...avoid a strong opposition posture that could have a destabilizCommonweal: 12 ing effect on the fragile transition process...
...A UCD-PSOE coalition would place the initial advantage but the election is likely to be a hardmajor emphasis on a program of social and economic reforms fought contest...
...I st...
...It showed that the current Democratic party is conserlike "this debate is what the Democratic party is all about" and vative in nature...
...Furthermore, great insecurity prevails over the antipathy that is rooted in present circumstances and history...
...support for these actual state of affairs...
...He is handsome...
...The honeymoon may have tant at this time of political, religious and cultural ended but the country's political future remains hostage to the change-improve its quality and widen its influence...
...a prod- of social and economic austerity measures...
...responsible Socialist Initial poll-taking at the opening of the electoral campaign and Communist parties...
...sion to enter the government may also generate internal diviThe PCE obtained 9 percent of the vote in June, 1977 (as sions within both Socialist and UCD ranks...
...The tunes to continuing terrorism in the Basque provinces and the Spanish labor movement is dominated by two labor confedera- recent aborted coup attempt by a small group of disgruntled tions, the somewhat larger Workers Commissions Trade military officers...
...decisive influence on Spain's future security arrangements...
...Hence, a goverment of the possibility of staying in power by seeking parliamentary moderate left forces is envisaged that could include the reinvestiture with the aid of other parties...
...A Socialist government would also have the thorny dilemma As the two parties prepare for their second major electoral of what to do about the Communist Party (PCE...
...this President is a master of knowing the power of in coming and that we have a natural affinity in our needs and symbols and coalitions...
...determine the course of political life for some years to come...
...To be a disappointment, after all, there tration appointee, recognized and approved of all the clamor...
...The climate of restraint was further Alliance (AP) and allied groups is being urged upon Suarez...
...I do not pretend to be able to read his mere push won't do-will the party adopt liberal measures...
...uct of the Franco regime...
...A principal Spanish political analysts attribute the change in UCD forreason is the crucial role of the PCE in trade union affairs...
...the support of both labor organiza- standings of the parties in the polls accurately reflects the tions would be indispensable...
...The of the Pact's principal architects...
...The uneasy relationship between the two parties is largely due Despite efforts underway to achieve greater political and to the fact that an extension of Communist influence can only organizational cohesion, the UCD remains an electoral coali- occur at the expense of the Socialists...
...But the honeymoon may soon end as Spain that was the legacy of four decades of authoritarian rule...
...But for the moment liberals through one man's leadership but through one man's abiljty or others who voiced concern for the disenfranchised are somehow to get the support of 51 percent of every group...
...Spain of the democratic political system was drafted, and the conhas seen a democratic transition accompanied by political and tinued dismantling of the extensive institutional infrastructure social concord...
...therefore may be in a position to furnish the seats needed by Professor Tierno Galvan has aptly described the constitution UCD to establish a parliamentary majority...
...part, discover what has happened...
...A leading UCD figure is reputed to have regime rather than a Socialist-led government...
...strated his great talents as a campaigner...
...Even if it emerges as the largest party, PSOE will probably Prime Minister Adolfo Suarez has decided to reject as too risky fail to gain a parliamentary majority...
...the Communists short of cabinet participation...
...Instead, the convention was a sort He would go from workshop to workshop saying something of signal...
...outcome of the March Ist balloting...
...Such an alliance date represents a calculated gamble...
...They needed time to convert a BENJAMIN MARTIN is Director c f the Spanish Labor Pro jeet (if the recently legalized party into a cohesive political force and to Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington...
...Its most positive virtues are among moderate left voters for whom both major parties are the granting of partial autonomy to Catalonia, the Basque area strenuously competing...
...Socialists confrontation of the post-Franco period, both must make dif- view the Communists with deep suspicion and hostility, an ficult choices...
...This led to the signing of the "Moncloa Pact" in gradually disarming the retrograde elements in the military and the fall of 1977 by which the parliamentary parties committed elsewhere...
...which would probably result in the indefinite postponement of who heads the council of Bishops, observed to the writer that any decision on NATO membership...
...goals...
...therefore, precludes collabora- ing its standing and thus foreclosing future prospects...
...or authority to run the country...
Vol. 106 • January 1979 • No. 1
