Limits of the Superpowers
Krickus, Richard J.
NOT ALL THE WORLD IS 'US' AND 'THEM' Limits of the superpowers RICHARD J. KRICKUS vulnerable to political blackmail, and...
...devalue or exaggerate American or Soviet power...
...Kremlin...
...Soviet Union often is one's nationality, not one's ideological Many hard-liners, however, perceive the Soviets' internal purity or abilities...
...Antagonists vying for political for granted...
...Indeed, the awareness among the people of the Third World...
...likely that one will look upon the other with fear and suspicion, -the Hungarian and Czechoslovakian revolutions in 1956 and causing both to maintain troops along a mutual border forty1968...
...Syndicated columnists Evans and Novak claim that frame discussions of U.S...
...If the ethnic groups that reside in the Soviet Union are displaying a Russians, true to form, oppress Moslem activities in the new sense of group self-awareness...
...it will the Soviets' objectives to deny the West precious raw mate- foster race war in South Africa in the 1980's, and it will be the rials...
...This uncertainty is clearly worth many do so, neither can return to a by-gone era when they could divisions, yet defense experts citing.the superiority of the shape events to their liking if they were prepared to risk a Warsaw Pact over NATO often do not mention it...
...a voice in economic, political and has forged a pluralistic society out of the ethnic mosaic of Old cultural affairs will escalate...
...Although the Western media have picking religious leaders, of controlling educational curricula, dwelt upon intellectual dissidents, the discontent displayed by or of determining the expression of cultural activities-just as non-Russian ethnics in the Soviet Union constitutes a much it has in the Baltic countries, the Ukraine, Armenia, and more serious problem...
...One day early in the new liturgy he was nudged by his quite clearly: "Christ's followers, when present at this mystery of faith, should not be there as strangers or silent specl. PATRICK DOBEL is assistant professor of political science at the tators (emphasis mine...
...Increasingly war among the Communists in Southeast Asia is proof that they are demanding a voice in decisions affecting their lives most of the conflict in the world today is related not to ideologwhich was denied them by their former European masters...
...The disparity be- r...
...The simple truth is that national interest takes prece- basis for serious internal discord in the Soviet Union for many dence over ideological purity...
...To make wake of failure in Vietnam...
...the lems severely limiting the Soviets' capacity to operate effec- USSR is the fifth largest Islamic country in the world...
...Consider for that the two Communist superpowers will ever manage to example: work effectively together as a single power center...
...The To claim that events are going especially poorly for the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Frank United States and well for the USSR is to misrepresent the Church has accused the administration of "botching" the facts, or to adopt the "worst case scenario" in every instance...
...Unlike tively abroad...
...While linking the Shah's demise to modernization -as exemplified by the Ayatollah Ruhollah internal forces, Kissinger simultaneously claims that Wash- Khomeini in Iran and the mullahs in Saudi Arabia...
...we -the Sino-Soviet split which many commentators fear will must maintain military parity with the Soviets...
...The most serious of expectation induce them to rebel against acts of discrimina- Soviet setbacks since the end of World War II have been 3 August 1979: 429 associated with fraternal "socialist" countries, and in no in- ship should result in Russian-Chinese detente, it is unlikely stance has the United States instigated them...
...Isn't one of spired the civil rights movement in the United States...
...few governments have institutionalized channels of political they are linked to a perceived American association with expression, while many do not enjoy the unity of purpose Western colonialism...
...and we may result in a major Russian-Chinese war...
...Thus President Carter speaking at Georgia Yemen and Afghanistan, the Carter administration's ineptness Tech...
...Henry Kissinger, in his much dramatic change of mind...
...most of world's upheavals in the 1970's are the work of Minister of Pakistan told an American television audience that ingenious Communist machinations orchestrated from the Carter was not-,acting like a leader of a superpower...
...This phenomenon inguarding American-tun oil complexes in Angola...
...Those responsible for painting such a bleak picture giant...
...But it is a gross error to of the Soviet Union to achieve its foreign policy objectives...
...The assertion that the United States has become a "crippled PUNDITS, POLITICIANS and pollsters agree that the United giant" deserves close scrutiny because people who cannot be States has suffered a series of setbacks in the past two neatly categorized as "hawks" or "doves" adhere to it...
...I recall the story of a friend who M UCH of of the problem can be traced to ambiguities about recounted how the few moments during communion time were the role of silence and reflection in the Constitution of the a very important moment in his life...
...publican in today's Catholic liturgy...
...In his church, as in most churches, the place which congregation as choirs sang and the priests mumbled incomsuggested "optional silence" or "communion song" had -'prehensible words, the dominant image of silence in the Conbeen filled with the militantly joyful singing of community stitution is that of mindless passivity...
...Article 48 suggests this hymns...
...we need only consider the plight of the Islamic people, who are To CLAIM that the USSR is making great gains internation- among the Soviet Union's poorest citizens...
...This anomaly that there is a correlation between internal discord and aggresclashes with Soviet and Western social thought which con- sive behavior abroad...
...Luke 18:13) parts of human and religious life...
...demonstrate just how serious rising ethnic self-awareness is...
...The ruling groups of another one will probably prove to be prophetic...
...Russians currently dominate all impor- although the application of conventional force may, for a time, tant centers of power and influence-the economic sector, the intimidate ethnic activists, the nationality problem is a persisarmed forces, the Communist party, the government, cultural tent, long-term one that must be considered in any assessment life, etc...
...zation or reflect internal divisions that existed prior to the Along with the unrest promulgated by modernization, the Bolshevik Revolution and the creation of the CIA...
...But, as minority groups gain access to educational and professional SECOND AREA of major difficulties for the Soviets is the opportunities, the younger generation will not tolerate acts of A discord characterizing relations among the various coundiscrimination that the older ones did...
...five hundred miles long...
...NOT ALL THE WORLD IS 'US' AND 'THEM' Limits of the superpowers RICHARD J. KRICKUS vulnerable to political blackmail, and gradually but ineluctably the balance of power will shift in their favor...
...Out of a population ally at the expense of the United States is to ignore prob- of about 270 million, 50 million Soviets are of that faith...
...situation in the Middle East and, upon returning from a tour of This is dangerous because history reveals that today's convenfive Asian countries, Maine's liberal Republican Senator, tional wisdom may lead to the adoption of tomorrow's policy William Cohen, characterized the United States as a "crippled disasters...
...The Russians claim the USSR, they will run the risk of alienating millions of their ethnic civil rights activists are reactionaries financed by closest neighbors as well as those Moslems who live in parts of "foreign provocateurs" but the truth is that most of them are Asia and Africa distant from the Soviet Union...
...their activities are supported by people from all The non-Russian nationalists cannot bring down the Soviet walks of life and their movements are growing in strength...
...3 August 1979: 427 He' has attacked the administration in particular for not acting tives of power and status have taken measures to destroy "old decisively in Iran...
...lift up so much as his eyes ur.:o heaven, but The pressures to end moments of silence and reflection are smote upon his breast, saying, God be merci- profoundly misguided...
...The Soviets do not have to bear this associated with a shared sense of common peoplehood, social albatross and their support of black independence movements order is achieved through coercion and not consensus...
...are faced with a serious and growing problem in their own There are two forces at work here: The first has its roots in society...
...Europe and North America, however, responded to this chal- In this connection, writers who see the Soviets as making ldnge differently, fostering socialism, communism, fascism strides toward the achievement of a grand design in Africa are and welfare capitalism in the process...
...Because Sub-Sahara Africa, moreover, are unrelated to Soviet actions...
...MAKING ROOM FOR PUBLICANS IN CHURCH Liturgical silence J. PATRICK DOBEL wife asking him to "sing along" because his obvious silence and intensity were setting a bad example for the children who And the publican, standing afar off, would not wanted to know why "dad doesn't sing...
...Such unflattering characterizations are not limited to employ three faulty assumptions: the United States has almost domestic pundits: pro-American commentators in the French unlimited power to shape the international environment to its press have labeled President Carter incompetent and the Prime liking...
...As long has convinced African leaders like the late Steve Biko that as most of the world's societies are grappling with the crisis of "America is a poor second to Russia when it comes to a choice participation, political instability will be the rule and not the of an ally...
...Let us briefly cite two which are far more the European ethnics in the Soviet Union, they have only serious than any problems facing the United States: the "na- recently begun to enter the mainstream of Soviet society, but tionality question" and discord in the "Communist world...
...Reacting negatively to the familiar sight of upon his life and God or open himself to the sacramental rows of bowed or nodding heads, and vacant stares of the presence...
...Henry Kissinger has become one of their leading prophets...
...most frequently are: Washington's failure to act decisively in the face of Soviet and Cuban incursions in Angola and II HE UNITED STATES cannot control events within other Ethiopia, the formation of pro-Soviet governments in South T nations...
...In Africa, for societies must come to grips with before they can enjoy the example, tribal differences are a much greater source of diskind of social order the industrialized Western countries take cord than ideological ones...
...socialists...
...Critics of SALT II humiliation President Carter suffered in Mexico when Presihave predicted that once it becomes apparent to both sides that dent Portillo publicly scolded him, to support the claim that the Soviets enjoy a military advantage, the West will be American prestige has plunged while that of the Soviet Union has soared...
...we live in a dangerous, often-times unpredictable world...
...latent "political and economic instabilities" become manThe second element at work is that modernization is not ifest...
...have to take risks and make sacrifices to protect ourselves and All of the above have significant implications for the ability to achieve our international objectives...
...as this trend gains momentum their level of political awareness Contrary to Leonid Breshnev's claim that the Soviet Union and their desire to have...
...Embassy in Teheran, the Soviets are acquiring a first strike capability and this will the murder of the American Ambassador in Kabul, and the produce grave geopolitical consequences...
...Moreover, they now allude to Soviet "gains"-in RICHARD J. KRICKUS teaches political science at Mary Washington Africa, Afghanistan and South Yemen-that not many months College in Virginia...
...They are of special importance for deepening faith and conviction, and a liturgy without THERE IS very little room for the quiet prayers of the them becomes shallow and manipulative...
...Non-Russians encounter persistent acts of problems in a different light...
...Neither the exponents of rapid change Empirical evidence, however, suggests otherwise: pre- nor the protectors of traditional ways, however, can guarantee sently, and for the rest of this century, the countries of Asia, social order based upon consensus because the forces of modAfrica and Latin America will be grappling with social, eco- ernization have been let loose and in the foreseeable future nomic and political problems that are by-products of moderni- discord and upheaval will pervade most developing societies...
...the other cheek every time Moscow fouls Uncle Sam...
...To regimes elsewhere...
...At the same time, fearful that time-honored otherwisd: "But somebody who starts a rockslide nevertheless customs and values are being destroyed by alien, "Western" must be held responsible for the impact of stones that he ones, traditional leaders have become bitter opponents of himself did not throw...
...Since then they have cited the publicized interview in The Economist of London, warned that Shah's demise, the seizure of the U.S...
...ical differences but to sources of discord rooted in ethnic and Because few of their governments are willing or able to make historical grievances...
...less dramatic outbreaks in Poland and East Germany and There is no cause to be Pollyannaish about the international other displays of anti-Soviet feeling among the Warsaw Pact and national security problems confronting the United States: countries...
...He would silently reflect Sacred Liturgy...
...Asians and Africans...
...Careful not to accuse the Soviets of instigat- customs and ideas" which they perceive as blocking the way ing the crisis, he tantalizes us with a parable that suggests toward progress...
...prove to be authentic Marxists, they will sell their oil to any The non-Russian ethnics are demanding greater political nation (except South Africa and Israel) that is prepared to buy autonomy, more money for local economic development projit, and much the same holds true for "Marxist-Leninist" ects, and wider opportunities to celebrate their cultural life...
...tween economic expectations and the ability to meet them is a persistent source of discontent, contributing to frequent turn- ;P Ar, 05 W, overs in political authority...
...But with the industrial revolution it blacks are not prepared to trade one form of white rule for became possible to eliminate poverty...
...Our foreign The Soviets clearly cannot place much faith in the loyalty of policy and defense posture must be designed on the basis of the allies who in several circumstances have turned their weapons fact that, even if leaders in Washington and Moscow wished to on Russian troops...
...Silence and reflection are significant ful to me, a sinner...
...state-there is no indication that they are trying to do so-but Significantly, young men and women born in the Soviet era are it is equally short-sighted not to acknowledge that the Russians among the most militant activists...
...But there is serious confrontation...
...culation that they can do so may bring about the confrontation Turning to Sino-Soviet enmity, even if a change in leader- both wish to avoid...
...The miscalconditions, elsewhere as well...
...For example, the Kremlin may enthe Czars of yesteryear-is currently one of the Russian lead- counter stiff resistance in Islamic areas, to its policy of handership's greatest worries...
...and the Soviet Union has few real problems to deter it The American "setbacks" and Soviet "gains" mentioned in achieving its imperialistic ambitions...
...limitations began to display a strategic nuclear capability...
...It will years while the Soviet Union has enjoyed impressive be employed this year to block passage of SALT II, and it will gains...
...matters worse, many defense experts claim that the Soviet Early in 1979, however, many commmentators who had Union already 'has, or soon will, surpass the United States in previously acknov)ledged U.S...
...comprise more than 50 percent of the population in the USSR, The revival of religious fervor on the part of Moslems is a and the Lithuanian, Ukranian, Armenian and various Asiatic tangible social phenomenon in many Islamic countries...
...For the sake persistence of ethnic divisions will continue to shape the of simplicity, there are three kinds of crisis which all of these course of events in the non-industrial world...
...Many leaders anxious to acquire prerogaCommonweal: 428 at a loss to explain the anomaly that Cuban troops have been tion that their parents deemed minor...
...The d8ciding factor in moving up the ladder in the of Soviet capabilities...
...Hard-liners in the United States misconstrue such exception...
...room for them, political change in Asia, Africa and Latin Many of the "setbacks" the United States has suffered in America has been abrupt, violent and unpredictable...
...estranged or passive was reinforced by the rediscovery of the Commonweal: 430...
...even if the Angolan leaders years...
...Russian chauvinism is probably less prominent achieve foreign policy objectives...
...Congregational song and the recitative vernacular place an almost con- I stant burden upon the worshipper to speak, sing, gesture and "actively participate...
...This equation of silence with being University of Michigan, Dearborn...
...Washington Post and other journals...
...The Crisis of Regulation: Throughout the world, traditional values and institutions are crumbling before the on-rush of urbanization, industrialization and the mass media, fostering imad L: rising rates of crime, juvenile delinquency and other forms of social pathology...
...Conditions in the Soviet Union, howtends that in a "socialist" or "modern" society ethnic values ever, allow us to assert with confidence that its "political and and ties will be superseded by new, "higher forms" of social instabilities" are permanent factors limiting its ability to relationships...
...control often attach themselves to Western ideologies in an The Crisis of Participation: Urbanization, industrialization, effort to secure economic and military support from the supertechnological innovation and the demise of Western col- powers, but if one strips away the rhetoric the root causes of onialism have produced a new, heightened level of political conflict derive from ages-old ethnic animosity...
...no question that Soviet distrust of the East Europeans serves as Both still possess enormous capacity to wreak havoc in the a limiting factor to the Soviets fully utilizing their economic, world, but neither has the means to control the fate of the vast political and military leverage in Europe and, under certain majority of people who live outside their borders...
...The author of Pursuing the American Dream ago they dismissed as temporary setbacks for the West or (Anchor/Doubleday), he has written for The Nation, Dissent, The developments of little importance...
...foreign and defense policy for the President Carter has adopted a "submissive policy of turning next several years if not longer...
...This is likely to foster confrontaRussia, the nationality question-a source of grave concern to tions with the Russians...
...in the Soviet Union today than it was in Imperial Russia...
...Kissinger, for example, argues discrimination, and they contend that the USSR today is a that the Soviets may seek political advantages-risking a "prison of nations" just as Lenin characterized Czarist Russia dangerous confrontation with the United States-before its early in this century...
...It is more -the break with Tito in 1948...
...Today demands for more food and consumer goods, better housing and greater access to educational and other opportunities-enjoyed by :KZ6.1 «!:: most Westerners-constitute a dispute over how resources in the proper countries are to be distributed...
...indeed their rising levels tries that comprise the "Communist world...
...Since most ington could have prevented the outcome and so reveals his hard-liners in the United States claim to be conservatives, it is true feelings: the superpowers (if they have the guts) can difficult to fathom why they have paid so little attention to the determine the rise and fall of the vast majority of governments importance of traditional institutions and values in the lives of in Africa and Asia...
...observations to mean that the men in the Kremlin have The Crisis of Distribution: Throughout history only a tiny achieved profound ideological gains on the Dark Continent, proportion of people have experienced anything other than but UN Ambassador Andrew Young's comment that Africa's economic subsistence...
...Nuclear weapons will not solve the problem and Russian chauvinism...
...That truism, reiterated on many occasions since then, in withdrawing recognition from Taiwan, and the hesitation reflects America's healthy reappraisal of our capabilities in the and weakness it displayed in the Iranian crisis...
...The 1980 census will reveal that they Georgia...
...Only time will tell whether he is right or not, but on the undermining ethnic ties and values but, on the contrary, is the basis of past Soviet behavior the evidence is by no means clear basis for the "new ethnicity" in the USSR...
Vol. 106 • August 1979 • No. 14
