MORE OF THE SAME
Roberts, Cokie
FROM TURKEY MORE OF THE SAME Weeks after the Fall mid-term elections in Turkey the world waits for some signs of movement on a Cyprus settlement-but it looks like it's going to be a long wait. For...
...When Congress voted last July to continue the arms embargo the Turks claimed the unilateral action nullified all agreements and then placed the more than 25 U.S...
...then, when Suleyman Demirel finally formed a workable coalition, he said he couldn't negotiate while the American arms embargo existed...
...He must be careful...
...Ecevit's strength in the big cities increased-he carried Istanbul by more than 50 percent--so as urbanization continues he could be the winner in die next elections...
...The arms build-up in both countries goes on-an expense neither can afford...
...or anyone else and would be directly tied to use of the bases: no payments, no bases...
...But Turkey does feel the weight of international opinion urging negotiation and for that reason the foreign minister now asserts Turkey's willingness to be "flexible"-which seems to be some sort of code word for territorial concessions...
...would pay for use of the bases (he doesn't call it rent because Ecevit has said renting Turkish soil constitutes an infringement of national sovereignty...
...Ecevit, who draws support from anti-American feelings, denounced Demirel as a tool of the Americans during the campaign so he can't afford to look like an American patsy, especially at this time of strong nationalistic attitudes in Turkey...
...or anyone else...
...Thus he's taking a tough line in base negotiations- asking for Turkish controls plus some sort of "Congress-proof* arrangement whereby the U.S...
...He has always maintained that his government will not be "blackmailed" into an agreement under pressure from the U.S...
...And recently Ankara, which had formerly agreed to allow the World Court to settle some of the Aegean dispute, announced its opinion that bilateral negotiations should take place before the issue goes to the Hague...
...It might decide the safest and easiest course is to take no steps at all...
...bases in Turkey and relations with Greece...
...But he's willing to risk it all-international isolation, military and'economic insecurity-to win the next election...
...Meanwhile Ecevit criticizes Demirel for nof'reaching a settlement, and promises not to use it for political purposes...
...Demirel knows inaction on Cyprus can politically and diplomatically isolate Turkey...
...Any concessions Demirel makes can be criticized by the opposition as losing what Ecelit gained...
...He knows it can result in re-imposition of the arms embargo which would force him to close bases he believes vital to Turkey's security...
...Ankara assumed control of the bases and eliminated certain privileges of American servicemen and their families...
...military installations in Turkey on a provisional basis...
...Opposition leader Bulent Ecevit's Republican People's Party polled the higher percentage of popular votes, 44 percent compared to Demirel's Justice Party's 41 percent, but the JP won the greater number of seats in Parliament...
...After the partial lifting of the embargo in October Demirel postponed negotiations on the bases until after the elections...
...So far, however, no one says what the territory will be so it's impossible to tell whether it's anything meaningful...
...One repeatedly hears that they "will not go back to the dark days of the past...
...Certainly Oerakel has reason to wish for unity...
...military isn't Wpladng men whose tours are completed and some bases retain only about SO percent of their staffs...
...Most Ankara observers attrftntte Eeevit's election percentage to two factors...
...So debate drags on, with both countries violating treaties and potential for conflict growing...
...Here again his critics are watching him...
...He keeps trying to find excuses not to negotiate...
...The payments would enable Turkey to purchase arms from the U.S...
...So Demirel is damned either way...
...Also Erbakan disagrees with any compromise and although some people hoped his party's poor showing in the elections would make him more conciliatory, that doesn't seem to have happened...
...When the U.S...
...But there's no reason to believe him-once Demirel came to an agreement Ecevit would probably call it a sell-out...
...The day after the voting one government official told me, "We now have two major parties with the possibility of winning the next general election, but Demirel could ruin his chances with a false step...
...First, the country went through a prolonged period without a government...
...Disagreements over Aegean oil, water rights and air space flare up as hot spots between Greece and Turkey...
...when he was Prime Minister in 1971 his government fell as a result of demonstrations and unrest...
...domestic political pressure might dictate a renewal of the embargo...
...As the Justice Party official spokesman analyzed it, "the most important thing is that the Cyprus operation was carried out under his (Ecevit's) leadership...
...cokie Roberts (Cokie Roberts, a previous contributor, is an American newspaper and radio journalist based in Athens...
...And if that happens Turkish domestic pressure will force Demirel to close-U.S...
...For more than a year, one reason or another has prevented Turkey from moving toward an agreement...
...He knows the economy can't withstand buying more arms...
...The next general elections officially will occur in 1977 but there's constant talk of early elections...
...The message from Turkey reads: more of the same...
...Now the elections have come and gone and still no action seems likely-this time because of the election results...
...Congress partially lifted the ban on arms sales, the Turks begged off saying elections were but weeks away...
...Demirel's government fears that false step on three major issues: Cyprus, the U.S...
...Significantly both parties gained in relation to the smaller parties, particularly the far-right National Salvation Party led by Necmettin Erbaken who currently sits as vice-premier in Demirel's coalition...
...installations in Spain operate on a payment basis so the Americans would probably agree to some form of remuneration but at the first talks Turkey demanded an astronomical $IV£ billion a year...
...his personality and bis handling of Cyprus...
...Relations between Turkey and Greece remain tense aatf cynics in both countries consider the tension a government ploy to ensure national unity...
...bases, whether he wants to or not...
...If no significant' steps take place before Congress votes on the foreign aid bill, then U.S...
...De-mirel agrees that the installations (which monitor Soviet missile ranges and underground nuclear testa, and trace troop movements) form a vital part of Turkey's own defense but in this era of detente he might still sacrifice the bases in the face of domestic political pressure...
...Before the final returns were tallied Turks were already talking about the next election...
...American diplomats in Ankara hoped that after the might be allowed to the Turks know the dosed bases w&b their idle, highly-trained technical personnel re-naio their strongest bargaining card, and they won't play it right away- Meanwhile the U.S...
...Cyprus remains a powerful emotional issue with the Turks...
...Student demonstrations continue, many of them resulting in violence, but the last massive march took place at the old Orthodox citadel of Hagia Sophia and was directed at the Greeks...
...Domestic political considerations override everything...
Vol. 103 • January 1976 • No. 3
